News
China conducts patrols in South China Sea amid ongoing run-ins. China's military announced routine patrols in the South China Sea, emphasizing readiness to defend sovereignty and maritime rights. This move, amid rising regional tensions, particularly with the Philippines, aims to deter activities that disrupt the area. The patrols coincide with joint exercises by the Philippines and the U.S., escalating existing disputes over territory in the South China Sea. Bernard Orr, Reuters, January 3
China gives first official look at Fujian aircraft carrier's advanced catapult launch system. China's unveiling of the Fujian aircraft carrier, featuring an advanced electromagnetic catapult system, marks a significant step in naval technology. This system outperforms traditional steam catapults, enhancing the carrier's capability for diverse and heavier aircraft launches. The Fujian reflects China's ongoing efforts in military advancement and naval modernization. Jack Lau, South China Morning Post, January 3
Over 70% of firms expect Japan economy to keep growing in 2024. According to a Kyodo News survey, over 70% of major Japanese companies foresee continued economic growth in 2024. This optimism marks an increase from the previous year, despite concerns about material and energy costs. The survey included responses from leading corporations such as Toyota and SoftBank, reflecting a broader positive sentiment in Japan's corporate sector. Kyodo News, January 3
Uzbekistan: Tax break on gas allowed to expire, pushing up prices. The expiration of a tax break on AI-80 gasoline in Uzbekistan has led to a significant price increase. This decision was made to address government revenue losses, despite causing public discontent. The government assures there will be no shortages of AI-80, known for its low grade and environmental impact. The fuel's role in air pollution has been a concern, particularly in Tashkent during winter. Eurasianet, January 3
Kazakhstan: Oil workers persist with protest, government ignores. In Kazakhstan's Mangystau region, West Oil Software workers are protesting for improved working conditions, but government officials have so far ignored their appeals. The workers are demanding employment with subsidiaries of KazMunaiGas, hoping for better salaries. Despite previous strikes in the region, the company has not shown willingness to negotiate, even dismissing several workers. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, January 3
PH-US joint patrols start in West Philippine Sea. The United States and the Philippines have initiated joint naval patrols in the West Philippine Sea. This move is in response to increasing regional tensions, particularly involving China. The joint patrols are aimed at enhancing maritime security and stability in the contested area. Francisco Tuyay, The Manila Times, January 3
Ethnic armed group battling Myanmar’s military claims to have shot down an army helicopter. The Kachin Independence Army, an ethnic minority group in Myanmar, claims to have shot down a military helicopter in Kachin state. The incident reportedly occurred during a resupply mission near Myitkyina township. Myanmar's military has been in conflict with pro-democracy and ethnic minority groups since the February 2021 coup. There has been no official confirmation from the military, and independent verification is limited. Grant Peck, AP News, January 3
Bangladesh deploys army to keep peace ahead of Sunday's election. Bangladesh has deployed troops across the country, including Dhaka, to maintain peace ahead of Sunday's national election. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is boycotting the election, demanding Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation. Hasina accuses the BNP of instigating recent violent protests. The military's role is to assist only upon request from polling officers, with additional support from the navy and air force. Ruma Paul and Sudipto Ganguly, Reuters, January 3
People-to-people diplomacy an important pillar of Việt Nam's diplomatic sector: senior official. Lê Hoà i Trung, a senior Vietnamese official,
emphasized the significance of people-to-people diplomacy in Việt Nam's foreign relations at a Hà Nội conference. The conference reviewed achievements and set goals for 2024, focusing on enhancing diplomatic efforts in line with national policies and international relations. Trung highlighted the role of such diplomacy in socio-economic development and promoting Việt Nam's global image. Vietnam News, January 3
Taiwan reports China sent 4 suspected spy balloons over the island, some near key air force base. Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported that China sent four balloons, suspected for spying, over Taiwan, with three near a crucial air force base. This incident aligns with China's increasing military presence around Taiwan, especially ahead of the January 13 presidential and legislative elections. The use of balloons for intelligence gathering represents a new tactic in China's strategy, adding to regular naval and aerial incursions near Taiwan. AP News, January 3
Long Form
U.S.-South Korea Coordination Toward China: Maritime Security. The Council on Foreign Relations hosted a workshop on U.S.-South Korea policy coordination toward China on maritime security, highlighting the strategic importance of the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. The workshop emphasized South Korea's heavy reliance on these maritime routes for trade and the need to balance its relationships with the U.S. and China. The recent militarization of the South China Sea poses significant challenges for U.S.-South Korea maritime operations, requiring innovative countermeasures. The workshop suggested developing a joint strategic framework for maritime security, enhancing trilateral cooperation with Japan, and strengthening engagement with ASEAN to promote a rules-based maritime order. The recommendations aim to reduce conflict risks in the region and ensure the lasting strength of the U.S.-South Korea alliance in maritime security. By Seong-Hyon Lee, Council on Foreign Relations, January 4
Inflation and Its Demons Define Japan’s Precarious 2023. Japan's economy in 2023 grappled with inflation, exchange rate volatility, and rising commodity prices, leading to a challenging economic landscape. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida implemented policies to address these disruptions, including controversial expansionary monetary policies and a stimulus package. However, these measures have raised concerns about Japan's long-term fiscal health, especially considering its large public debt. The weak yen, while boosting profits for some sectors like the auto industry, has also increased import prices and consumer costs. The outlook for 2024 remains uncertain, with potential risks including conflict-induced oil price hikes and a deteriorating trade balance. Japan's economic future hinges on balancing short-term relief with long-term fiscal discipline and encouraging entrepreneurial innovation. By Willem Thorbecke, East Asia Forum, January 4
CJK Yields Japan–South Korea Engagement with China. The trilateral foreign ministers' meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea (CJK) in Busan, South Korea, marks a significant shift in regional dynamics. The meeting, the first since August 2019, reflects a change from the 'two-to-one logic' of trilateral relations. Japan and South Korea's joint engagement with China, initially aimed at overcoming historical grievances and promoting a free and open economic system in Asia, has evolved amidst changing power balances. The scale of China's economy and military now dwarfs those of Japan and South Korea, altering the dynamics of CJK cooperation. The Kishida–Yoon partnership in Japan and South Korea allows for joint engagement with China, not to change China's domestic rules but to stabilize bilateral relations and preserve leverage in negotiations. This strategic shift requires Japan and South Korea to make their bilateral relations resilient and converge their strategic interests to face China together. By Ryosuke Hanada, East Asia Forum, January 4
How the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan Strengthened Pakistan’s Military Deep State. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 had a profound impact on Pakistan, leading to an internationally supported process of militarization and Islamization that cemented the military's power. Pakistani President Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq played a crucial role during this period, aligning with the U.S. against the Soviet Union. This alignment resulted in significant military and financial support for Pakistan, which in turn strengthened the military's influence over the country's politics. The invasion and its aftermath reshaped Pakistan's internal and external policies, reinforcing the military's dominance in the political landscape. This historical context is essential to understanding the current dynamics of Pakistani politics, including the military's deep-rooted influence and the ongoing challenges in establishing a stable democratic process. By Dhruv Banerjee, The Diplomat, January 4
Central Asia’s Water Crisis Is Already Here. Central Asia faced escalating challenges in 2023 due to climate change, including disruptive weather patterns and the melting of key glaciers, impacting water resources. Turkmenistan experienced severe water shortages, leading to the shutdown of fountains in the capital and residents struggling with unsustainable fresh water supplies. Kazakhstan declared a state of emergency in Aktau due to critically low Caspian Sea water levels, and residents in Astana protested for water. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan also faced water crises, with Bishkek banning car washes, swimming pools, and bathhouses, and Uzbekistan seeing a doubling of fresh water prices in some regions. The crisis, driven by climate change, inefficient water management, and growing water consumption, underscores the urgent need for comprehensive and sustainable climate action in Central Asia. By Jahan Taganova, Anna Shabanova-Serdechna, Niginakhon Saida, The Diplomat, January 4
Economy Hangs in the Balance as Bangladesh’s Hasina Hangs on to Power. Bangladesh, once poised to be Asia's next tiger economy, is now on the brink of a deep economic crisis. As the country heads to the polls on January 7, the election is marred by descriptions of being "staged" and a "farce." This situation raises serious concerns about the state of electoral democracy in Bangladesh. The country's journey from a promising growth model under democracy to its current precarious state highlights the challenges it faces in maintaining economic stability and democratic integrity. By M Niaz Asadullah, The Diplomat, January 4
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