Asia Daily: January 2, 2024
News
China's Xi, US President Biden exchange congratulations on 45 years of diplomatic ties. Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden exchanged messages marking the 45th anniversary of China-US diplomatic relations. Xi acknowledged the history of bilateral ties and their global impact, expressing willingness to work with Biden for mutual benefit and world peace. This exchange comes amid heightened tensions and a recent summit aimed at easing strains between the world's two largest economies. Liz Lee, Reuters, January 1
North Korea’s Kim says military should ‘thoroughly annihilate’ US and South Korea if provoked. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un instructed his military to "thoroughly annihilate" the United States and South Korea if provoked, escalating tensions in response to U.S.-South Korean military drills. This statement follows Kim's pledge to enhance national defense, including launching military spy satellites and developing attack drones. Hyung-jin Kim, AP News, January 1
N. Korea begins discussions on dismantling agencies handling inter-Korean affairs. North Korea is considering dismantling organizations responsible for South Korean relations. This move, led by Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, reflects leader Kim Jong-un's stance that reconciliation and unification with South Korea are futile. Kim's recent comments classify South Korea as a hostile state, necessitating a shift in North Korea's approach to inter-Korean affairs. Yonhap News Agency, January 1
Taiwan election: President Tsai Ing-wen weighs in after DPP’s William Lai faces new independence row. Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen has intervened in a controversy involving DPP candidate William Lai's stance on independence. Lai's recent comments sparked debate over Taiwan's constitutional reliance in dealings with mainland China. Tsai emphasized the importance of following the constitution in cross-strait relations, while addressing the KMT's approach to mainland China as risky. The dispute underscores Taiwan's complex political dynamics, especially in relation to China. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, January 1
PM Kishida says Japan to play leading diplomatic role in "tense" 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged to position Japan at the forefront of global diplomacy in 2024, a year anticipated to be filled with significant events like the U.S. presidential election. His New Year's address highlighted Japan's commitment to tackling global challenges and enhancing security in East Asia. Amidst political scandals and economic pressures, Kishida emphasized Japan's role in international diplomacy and domestic policy reforms. Kyodo News, January 1
More than 140 Rohingya arrive in Indonesia's North Sumatra. Over 140 Rohingya, mostly women and children, arrived by boat in North Sumatra's Deli Serdang area. Their arrival follows the Indonesian navy's interception of a Rohingya boat last week. This incident adds to the growing number of Rohingya reaching Indonesia, with over 1,500 since November. The Rohingya, denied citizenship and facing abuse in Myanmar, often flee to Indonesia or Malaysia. Indonesia, a Muslim-majority country, has a history of accepting refugees despite not signing the UN Refugee Convention. Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, January 1
‘Turbulence’ hits India-US ties after Sikh separatist murder plot. Relations between India and the US have faced strains following allegations of an Indian plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist on US soil. These tensions come amid broader issues, including the US' calls for religious freedom and criticism of India's actions. The situation has led to President Biden declining an invitation to India's Republic Day celebrations, indicating a cooling of ties since Prime Minister Modi's visit to the US Congress. Sanjay Kapoor, Al Jazeera, January 1
Yoon says S. Korea, U.S. will complete strengthened extended deterrence regime in first half of 2024. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced that South Korea and the U.S. aim to complete a reinforced "extended deterrence" system by mid-2024. This strategy is designed to counter North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. The announcement, part of his New Year's address, emphasizes a commitment to robust security and economic stability. Yoon's address also touched on economic challenges, housing supply, deregulation, and tackling low birth rates. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, January 1
Free trade agreement between Nicaragua and China begins. Effective Jan. 1, this agreement enables tariff-free export of various Nicaraguan products, including meat, seafood, sugar, peanuts, and rum, to China. It strategically excludes certain Chinese goods to protect key Nicaraguan industries. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega hailed the agreement, emphasizing its economic and social benefits. This development marks a closer alignment between Nicaragua and China, especially after Nicaragua severed ties with Taiwan in late 2021. Ismael Lopez, Reuters, January 1
Asean ministers raise concern over rising SCS tensions. The foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) expressed concern over increasing tensions in the South China Sea (SCS). They emphasized the need for mutual trust and self-restraint to avoid escalating disputes, advocating for peaceful dispute resolution in accordance with international law. This response addresses the latest developments in the region that could undermine peace, security, and stability. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, January 1
Long Form
Marcos’ New Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is a Non-Starter. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's proposal for a separate 'code of conduct' (COC) in the South China Sea (SCS) with Vietnam and Malaysia is unlikely to gain traction. Despite efforts to form alignment and oppose clauses advantageous to China in the COC consultation process, Vietnam and Malaysia are hesitant to provoke China. Vietnam prefers diplomatic management of territorial disputes without undermining bilateral relations, and Malaysia maintains a nonconfrontational approach, focusing on economic growth rather than destabilizing the SCS. The recent China-led maritime exercise, including Vietnam and Malaysia, demonstrates a commitment to regional peace and stability. China's response to Marcos' proposal indicates its resolve to prevent disruptions in the COC consultation process. Marcos' initiative faces challenges in garnering support from neighboring countries and risks eroding trust between the Philippines and China. By Nian Peng, East Asia Forum, January 1
Defective Democracy Defines Thailand’s Political Future. Thailand's political landscape in 2023 was marked by significant changes, including the replacement of the pro-military government with a coalition led by a leading opposition party. Despite this shift, the coalition, which includes pro-military parties, operates under a powerful monarchy and alongside institutions appointed by the 2014–2019 junta, such as the Constitutional Court and Senate. The year saw Thailand wavering between competitive authoritarianism and defective democracy, with the military maintaining a significant influence over politics. The general election results led to a coalition government headed by Pheu Thai, a party associated with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. However, internal political dynamics and the influence of the monarchy and military continue to shape Thailand's political future, raising questions about the prospects for genuine democratic reform and the role of progressive parties like Move Forward. The country's democracy remains in transition, with real power residing with the monarchy and military, despite the presence of elections and political parties. By Paul Chambers, East Asia Forum, January 1
Communist Party Diplomat Liu Jianchao Steps Up Role in China’s Foreign Policy Drive. Liu Jianchao, head of the Communist Party's international department, has been actively enhancing China's global image. His tenure of 18 months is marked by increased overseas visits and engagement in international affairs. Liu's role is particularly significant as Beijing navigates growing global scrutiny and aims to ease tensions with the US and its allies. The international liaison department, traditionally focused on relations with socialist countries, is now taking a more prominent position in forging ties with foreign parties and governments. This shift reflects Beijing's strategic response to the international challenges it faces. By Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post, January 1
Sri Lanka's China 'Debt Trap' Fears Grow as Beijing Keeps Investing. Sri Lanka's economic situation is increasingly complicated by China's surging investments, including a recent multibillion-dollar oil project. As Sri Lanka attempts to restructure its significant debt and recover from its worst economic crisis, concerns are growing about Beijing's influence over the island nation. China, being Sri Lanka's largest bilateral creditor, has financed numerous large infrastructure projects, including highways, an airport, and a port. This deepening financial involvement raises questions about the extent of leverage China holds over Sri Lanka, especially in light of its recent default on sovereign debt and ongoing economic challenges. The situation in Sri Lanka exemplifies the broader concerns about China's Belt and Road Initiative and its impact on the financial stability of participating countries. By Cissy Zhou, Nikkei Asia, January 2
Contrasting Trilaterals: South Korea’s Summitry Dilemma. In 2023, Northeast Asia saw a resurgence of trilateral diplomacy, with the Japan-South Korea-U.S. (JKU) summit at Camp David taking center stage. This trilateral, initiated by the U.S., marked a new phase in regional dynamics, with Washington showing a willingness to engage more actively. The emergence of JKU trilateralism, born out of security concerns regarding North Korea, raises questions about its implications for regional security and the potential formation of an Asian NATO. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol played a key role in this development, risking political capital to mend ties with Japan and strengthen cooperation with the U.S., even at the expense of relations with China. The contrasting fate of the China-Japan-South Korea summit, which failed to materialize, further highlights the shifting geopolitical landscape in Northeast Asia. By Minseon Ku, The Diplomat, January 2
Is the Judiciary Being Weaponized in Bangladesh? Ahead of Bangladesh's general elections, the judiciary's role in convicting opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) activists raises concerns about its politicization. With at least 1,596 BNP activists convicted since October 28, the judiciary appears to be a tool in the government's strategy to suppress opposition. The Awami League government's insistence on holding elections amidst opposition boycotts and allegations of rigging further complicates the political landscape. The involvement of the judiciary in convicting opposition members at an unprecedented rate suggests a systematic effort to disqualify them from elections, raising questions about the fairness and legitimacy of the upcoming polls. This situation reflects the broader issue of judicial independence and the role of legal institutions in democratic processes in Bangladesh. By Ali Riaz, The Diplomat, January 1
The Asia Cable is offering an opportunity for guest authors to contribute to our platform in 2024! Interested contributors can learn more at the link below.