This Month in Asia: February 2023
This Month in Asia: February 2023
Diplomatic and security developments throughout Asia in February were overshadowed by an unorthodox diplomatic row that has raised levels of uncertainty over the state of U.S.-China relations.
February came to an end with more questions floating around the world of Asian affairs than answers. With a series of Chinese balloons traversing the Americas, several developments in the region took a backseat spot, including but not limited to an expansion of the American military presence in the region and the first North Korean missile test since New Year’s Eve of 2022.
Chinese balloons over the Americas spark fresh tensions
During the first week of February a high-altitude balloon of Chinese origin was reported to be flying in American and Canadian airspace, first being detected by NORAD in the final days of January.
The balloon’s flight path from China which included a pass over Alaska, much of Western Canada, Montana and the Northern Bible Belt sparked concerns that the balloon may have been a military craft on an intelligence gathering mission. This hypothesis was made much harder to ignore by the fact that Montana - the balloon’s location when its presence became widely reported - is the home of multiple nuclear missile installations. The balloon was shot down off the coast of North Carolina on February 4; China protested the downing of the craft as an overreaction on the part of the United States.
The official stance of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is that the balloon in question was a meteorological craft that was blown off course by wind and lacking steering capabilities to correct course. An MFA statement on February 19 took on a more assertive tone, stressing that “the US is in no position to smear China.”
A second balloon was spotted over Latin America by the U.S. Department of Defense on February 3. This object was also confirmed to be of Chinese origin, though MFA likewise asserted it to be of civilian nature.
Public debate around the most appropriate response to the situation was rampant, with a stark divide between those who advocated downing the balloon as quickly as possible and those who asserted that the risk of civilian injuries due to falling debris was too great, regardless of the potential complications in reaching the balloon in the first place.
In the aftermath of this development, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to China was postponed from February 5-6 to a later date to be determined.
North Korea Conducts Multiple Missile Tests, Describes Pacific Ocean as “Firing Range”
In response to an upcoming set of joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, North Korea conducted a series of missile tests on February 18 and 20.
The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched on February 18 took flight for just over one hour before crashing into waters off the West coast of Japan - inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Two short-range ballistic missiles launched on February 20 landed outside of the Japanese EEZ, with no damage reported from either launch.
North Korean state media asserted that “US and the south Korean puppet forces” were “escalating the military tension” on the Korean peninsula after American, South Korean and Japanese forces conducted joint air exercises in response to the February 18 missile launch.
Regarding the February 20 launch, Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of North Korea’s Publicity and Information Department - and younger sister of Kim Jong-un - addressed the situation in a statement released by the state-owned Korean Central News Agency (KNCA). Kim asserts that “the frequency of using the Pacific as our firing range depends upon the U.S. forces' action character.” Ostensibly, this framing of the situation suggests that the February missile tests were purely in reaction to American forces taking a purportedly “brisk” posture around the Korean peninsula, provoking the North in the process.
It was later confirmed that four cruise missiles were launched from the eastern coast of North Korea on Thursday, February 23. The missiles in question were said to have flown for over three hours on oval and figure eight trajectories by North Korean sources, though South Korea’s joint Chiefs of Staff challenged this assertion.
United States to increase training presence in Taiwan
According to various unnamed U.S. government sources, the U.S. will increase its presence in Taiwan. Currently, according to a wall street journal report the U.S. has ~30 military members on the island providing training to the ROC military. Multiple American sources are reporting varying levels of troop increases on the island. According to the Wall Street Journal and Fox News, there has been a reported increase in the number of U.S. troops, with estimates ranging between 100 to 200. However, CNN reports that it remains unclear how many troops will be involved in the increased training. Reuters has not mentioned any specific numbers regarding the troop increase. But this is not the only sign of increasing military cooperation between the two.
According to Taiwan's semi-official Central News Agency, a joint combined arms battalion consisting primarily of soldiers from the army's 333rd Mechanized Infantry Brigade and 542nd Armor Brigade will be dispatched to the United States later this year. Typically only a dozen or so troops go at a time, making this battalion-sized training exchange groundbreaking.
These two significant developments came after a series of high-level meetings at the Washington D.C. headquarters of the American Institute in Taiwan. U.S. officials who were seen throughout the day include Daniel Kritenbrink, Rick Waters, Dr. Ely Ratner, Michael Chase, Laura Rosenberger, Rush Doshi, Jon Finer, and Wendy R. Sherman. These developments, according to a named U.S. official have been in the works for months, prior to the Chinese Balloon Saga. The deployment of additional troops by the United States to Taiwan could be seen as a response to increasing Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) violations.
China releases a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine
On the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China released its 12-point peace plan calling it “China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis.”
China's plan includes much of the same language it has used for the past year when commenting on the conflict. The 12 points can be summarized as
Respecting the sovereignty of all countries and upholding international law and fairness.
Abandoning Cold War mentality and promoting balanced, effective, and sustainable European security.
Ceasing hostilities and supporting direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine to de-escalate the situation and reach a comprehensive ceasefire.
Resuming peace talks and encouraging all efforts conducive to peaceful settlement of the crisis.
Resolving the humanitarian crisis and protecting civilians by providing humanitarian aid and access.
Protecting civilians and POWs and complying with international humanitarian law.
Keeping nuclear power plants safe and preventing nuclear accidents.
Reducing strategic risks by opposing the threat or use of nuclear weapons and preventing nuclear proliferation.
Facilitating grain exports and supporting global food security cooperation initiatives.
Stopping unilateral sanctions and using political tools that create new problems.
Keeping industrial and supply chains stable and preventing disruption of international cooperation.
Promoting post-conflict reconstruction and supporting assistance measures.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a news conference he was open to some parts of the plan. He continued however to state that “the country where a war is being fought should be the initiator of a peace plan.” He continued with a warning to Beijing not to provide arms to Moscow. He also mentioned that he planned on meeting with Xi Jinping, but did not mention a time frame.
The full text of the 12-point plan can be found here
United States, Philippines agree to increased American access to Philippine military bases
Announced on February 2, the United States and the Philippines have agreed to the opening of four additional military bases in the Philippines to American personnel and operations.
In a joint press briefing with the Philippines’ Secretary of National Defense Carlito Galvez, United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced that the two countries had agreed to allowing increased American access to four EDCA sites in the Philippines. The EDCA (Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement) is an agreement between the United States and the Philippines that allows for the building of American facilities on Philippine bases and facilitates the rotation of American troops into the country for extended periods of time. Despite this, the United States does not and can not maintain any permanent military bases on Philippine territory.
“As President Biden has made clear, America's commitment to the defense of the Philippines is ironclad,” Austin said. “Our alliance makes both of our democracies more secure and helps uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific, and today, we discussed ways to make this vital alliance even stronger. We talked about enhancing our mutual defense posture and strengthening our commitments under our Mutual Defense Treaty.”
This agreement has largely been seen as an effort to curb Chinese influence in the region by enhancing the Philippines’ defensive abilities through enhanced cooperation with the United States. President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr has taken a foreign policy stance that further orients his country toward the United States’ defense umbrella, as opposed to his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who sought closer relations with Russia and China.
There is a history of tension between the Philippines and China regarding the latter’s activities in the South China Sea. These tensions most notably came to international attention in 2016 when the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruled in favor of the Philippines after the island nation brought suit against China regarding Chinese territorial claims and conduct in international waters. The PCA ruled in favor of the Philippines, effectively overruling many of China’s claims in the region.
At time of writing, the location of the four new EDCA sites agreed to in February have not been disclosed.
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