Thai PM's Leaked Call Saga: Coalition Crumbles as Resignation Calls Mount

Paetongtarn's use of quasi-treacherous language in a phone call with Cambodia's Hun Sen has threatened her fragile government's ruling coalition.

June 19. Bangkok wakes up to a chaotic morning from the night prior. Parades of letters and statements rained down from the government’s coalition, signalling resignation and condemning the actions taken by the Thai Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

What actions has she done? Personally calling Samdech Hun Sen, the President of Cambodia’s Senate, a sort of deal-cutting, that is. With the PM’s explicit use of language that sounds treasonous at best for any politician to be talking diplomatically.

During the leaked phone call, the prime minister was heard addressing Hun Sen as “uncle” and repeatedly urging Hun Sen not to “listen to those people from the opposite side like the Commander of the 2nd Army Area.”

With the Thai-Cambodian border disputes ongoing and intensifying by the day, Thai politics is now at a major turn of events. Will the prime minister resign? Will she dissolve the parliament and call for an election? Or will there be another coup d’état? Here are the timelines of how this leaked phone call saga unfolded and what is yet to come for the 31st Prime Minister of Thailand.

Timeline of Events

• June 15

  The private call between PM Paetongtarn and Hun Sen allegedly takes place on June 15th. The conversation lasts around 17 minutes, in which she addresses him as “uncle” and critiques a Thai army commander as “an opponent” who “just wants to look cool.”

• June 17

  A condensed audio snippet of approximately 9 minutes leaks and begins to circulate publicly. Within 24 hours, the Bhumjaithai Party, a major party in the Thai government’s coalition, exits the coalition. The party cites the call's negative impact on Thailand’s sovereignty and on preserving the military’s dignity.

• June 18

  Hun Sen posts the full 17 minutes and 6 seconds call on his Facebook page. He also admits to sharing it with about 80 officials in an effort to prevent misunderstandings.

• June 19

  PM Paetongtarn issues a public apology in a press conference at the Government House in Bangkok. She acknowledges the leak and emphasises it was on her personal phone, not diplomatic channels. She vows full support for the military and says she will avoid private conversations with Hun Sen in the future. In the meantime, the opposition parties call for her resignation or the dissolution of parliament.

As June 19 goes by, impeachment motions began to circulate around Thailand as an open complaint was filed for the impeachment of the prime minister by a former Senator, and the Senate officially opened an inquiry into the prime minister’s ethical misconduct.

Hanging By a Thread

By June 20, most of the government’s coalition parties had held their emergency meeting. Excluding the Bhumjaithai Party with its 69 MPs, the other major coalition parties consist of: the United Nation Party, the Kla Tham Party, the Prachachart Party, the Chart Thai Pattana Party, and the Democrat Party. All of those parties except the United Nation Party have expressed solidarity and their intention to move forward with the current coalition. The United Nation Party concluded their emergency meeting at 7 p.m. local time, but none of the MPs nor the party leader gave any statement to the press, leading to rumors about a probable deal-cutting with the ruling Pheu Thai Party and with the PM herself.

This puts the government at a very thin majority in the parliament, and should the United Nation choose to quit the coalition, the administration will become a minority government, which will indirectly force the dissolution of parliament, as many experts expect.

What Happens Now?

The leaked phone call has shaken the current administration with an intensity it has never seen before since the PM took office in 2023. Although there have been multiple speculations, including a possibility of a coup, right now, there are three possible paths the event could take.

• Keep Calm and Carry On
  The PM can choose to carry on with the current coalition with the thin majority in parliament for the rest of the term. This imposes the great difficulty of having to lead a near-minority government with very little approval from the general public.

• Dissolve parliament
  The PM could dissolve parliament and call for a new, snap election within a 45 to 60-day period.

• Resign
  The PM could choose to resign from office. This means that the parliament will have to vote to select the new PM from the existing PM candidate pools.

With the current state of Thai politics in limbo, awaiting decisions to be made and whether the administration will sway away from this impending storm both internal and external, the developments from Thailand represent a drastic change in Thai politics, the stage of which has already been full of twists, turns, and conflicts of interests.

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