Silk Road Monthly: October 2024
Central Asia Advances Infrastructure Projects and Strategic Alliances with China Amid Rising Cultural and Economic Realignments
North-South Highway
After a decade of construction and delays, officials say the North-South highway in Kyrgyzstan is projected to open at the end of this year. However, not unlike many infrastructure projects in Central Asia, the highway has gone well past its original construction timeline. In 2014 it was announced that the project was supposed to take just five years to complete, and yet, ten years later there’s still no official end in sight.
The project is being funded by the China Export-Import Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). China Road and Bridge Corporation is leading the construction of the project. Despite the delays and concerns of repayment, some Kyrgyz are excited about the highway potentially bridging the cultural divide between the north and south of the country.
Trans-Caspian Transport Route
China and Kazakhstan met to push trade along the Trans-Caspian Transport Route (TITR), otherwise known as the ‘middle corridor’ from 600 trains annually in 2025 to 2,000 by 2029. Rail projects to expand trade between the two countries are underway to increase cargo traffic to the Aktau and Kuryk seaports.
Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Referendum
On October 6, Kazakhstan went to the polls to vote on whether to build the country’s first nuclear power plant. 71% of voters voted in favor of the power plant, with around 64% of eligible voters taking part in the referendum. Election monitors argued that the government was very publicly in favor of the power plant and presented the public with mostly one side of the story.
Kazakhstan is the largest uranium producer in the world and views nuclear energy as an environmentally friendly alternative to solar and wind.
It is estimated that the nuclear power plant will cost between $10-12 billion to build. It is still unclear which company will be awarded the contract, but early reports indicate that Russia’s Rosatom is the favorite. Électricité de France, China National Nuclear Corporation, and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power are also in consideration.
Uzbek FDI Diversification
With China and Russia as its top two foreign direct investors (FDI), Uzbekistan is taking steps towards FDI diversification. New deals with South Korea and Saudi Arabia have focused on water management and trade expansion, including Saudi Arabia’s Miahona signing a deal at the beginning of October to build four new wastewater treatment plants in Ferghana and Jizzaq. Uzbekistan signed a series of preliminary agreements with South Korea worth around $9.5 billion, while Saudi Arabia has reportedly committed over $30 billion in investments in Uzbekistan.
Kazakh Grain Exports
Kazakhstan is planning to expand its grain exports to China and Afghanistan and has also resumed grain exports to Iran. Significant grain exports are also being sent to other Central Asian countries along with Russia, Türkiye, and Italy.
In the first nine months of this year, Kazakhstan has exported 1.3 million tons of grain to China by rail and is planning to reach 3 million tons by the end of the year. Grain exports headed for Xinjiang through the Khorgos port can be shipped without any fees.
China’s Global South Strategies in Central Asia
China’s role as a ‘south-south’ development partner in Central Asia differs by country. While Central Asian countries may often be seen as a monolith, their differences in economic standing, Sinophobic public sentiment, and positions within regional economic organizations significantly impact their respective relationships with China.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the two smallest Central Asian nations have both become heavily indebted and dependent on China for economic projects and security cooperation. Kazakhstan on the other hand has built up a much larger economy and established greater diversity with its trading partners, leading towards a more balanced economic partnership with China.
With each state, China holds different goals. In Afghanistan, China aims to secure its Xinjiang border, which has taken precedence over economic deals. However, in Kyrgyzstan, economic partnership and development remain China’s key intention. To reach country-specific goals, strategic messaging, adaption to local customs, and flexible loan repayments are seen as critical for China to maintain its relationships with Central Asian countries.
Despite heavy investments across Central Asia, anti-Chinese sentiments among civil society remain high, as protests and attacks on Chinese private security companies, particularly in Kyrgyzstan, warrant slight concerns over China’s relationship with the region.
To improve its standing with the region, Chan Young Bang, the former economic advisor to Nursultan Nazarbayev, recommends China distance itself from Russia, take a softer stance on Taiwan and improve transparency concerns.
Chinese-Kazakh Relationship Through International Organizations
Alibek Kuantyrov, a senior Kazakh diplomat, argues that Chinese-Kazakh relations will be boosted in the next year as Kazakhstan is set to host the second China-Central Asia summit. This past year China overtook Russia as Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner, with exports reaching $41 billion.
Kazakhstan is viewed as a focal point in the Belt and Road Initiative and Middle Corridor, which aim to connect China to Europe. Initially, there were concerns about Russia’s view of Chinese involvement in Central Asia, a place which many analysts note is still viewed by Moscow as “Russia’s backyard.”
Despite China’s strong relationship with Kazakhstan and its position as Kazakhstan’s top trading partner, the Central Asian giant has still taken a balanced approach to trade, diversifying its economic partnerships in what Kuantyrov defines as a “complex international environment.”
Officially, It’s Turkestan
This month, Türkiye decided to officially change the name “Central Asia” to “Turkestan” in Turkish history books. The term, “Turkestan” was the name used for the land inhabited by Turkic people prior to the Russian Revolution. Turkestan refers to the land in which Turkic people reside, primarily Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Western China. Turkic people also live in Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and other parts of the Caucasus and the Middle East. Some experts argue that this move is a move of Turkish soft power influence in the region, pushing to act as a counter-balance to some of the larger players in the region.
The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is the largest organization grouping the Turkic-speaking nations. The OTS recently announced the adoption of a Latin-based Turkic alphabet, a vital step viewed to unifying Turkic speakers.
Some analysts argue that the name, “Central Asia,” diminished the Turkic identity of the region. Tajikistan on the other hand, the only non-Turkic country in Central Asia, is left at a crossroads. Is Turkestan the new regional name; then excluding Tajikistan? While Türkiye is the only country so far that has participated in any form of official renaming, it bears the question: will the name “Central Asia” continue to keep Tajikistan included or will the Tajiks be pushed towards their cultural kin in Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan?
FMD Vaccines
Chinese company Yangling Jinhai Biotechnology is planning to build a plant in Kyrgyzstan to produce vaccines to treat foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). FMD is a highly contagious disease that can significantly impact livestock production and trade. The production of the FMD vaccine is seen as critical, especially since livestock production is the primary source of income for a large portion of rural Kyrgyz populations.
No BRICS for Kazakhstan
The 16th annual BRICS summit was held in Kazan, Russia on October 22-24. Since its founding in 2006 until 2024, the alliance stuck to its name: only Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (joined in 2010) were members. However, in 2024, BRICS finally expanded, seeing Egypt, the UAE, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia (delayed membership), and Iran join the block.
In further expansion plans for BRICS, Kazakhstan reportedly received an invitation on October 16, but has decided against joining for the time being. Kazakhstan has stressed the importance of a multi-vector foreign policy and may view joining BRICS as potentially straining a few of its relationships.
Kazakhstan hasn’t been the only country hesitant to join. Argentina officially declined its invitation and Saudi Arabia hasn’t officially joined despite accepting its invitation, and was not seen at the summit in Kazan.
World Uyghur Congress
On October 25-27, the 8th World Uyghur Congress (WUC) was held in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The event is held once every three years and aims to bring together the Uyghur diaspora across 25 countries and discuss the current and future challenges Uyghurs face in Xinjiang and across the globe. Zumretay Arkin, the director of global advocacy at WUC, said the event dealt with significant hacking attacks, physical threats against its members, and attempts to prevent the event from taking place. Some of the threats have come from the Chinese Embassy in Sarajevo.
New Kyrgyz Industrial Plants
On October 25, Chinese investors agreed to begin the construction of four production facilities in Naryn, central Kyrgyzstan, including a car assembly plant and an LED manufacturing plant. A combined $140 million will be invested between the two plants, which is projected to create 1,200 jobs.