Silk Road Monthly: April 2025
Central Asian States Enhance International Ties Both East and West
Managing Sinophobia
Tashkent sits in a difficult position. Its economic relationship with Beijing has proven to be critical, while officials must also address domestic concerns over Chinese influence. Chinese businesses, investments, markets, and language schools are on the rise in Uzbekistan, and anti-Chinese sentiments have come with it, as locals remain concerned over land disputes, debt dependency, and influence.
These concerns have resurfaced after reports of land transfers in the Fergana Valley. Farmers told RFE/RL’s Uzbek service that land has been taken by the state and then sold off to Chinese businessmen. Many farmers displayed their frustrations after they felt they were pressured to sell off their land.
First EU-Central Asia Summit Beckons Greater Investment Competition
On April 3, the first EU-Central Asia Summit kicked off in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, signifying an intent for strong future ties for the European Union and Central Asia. As expected, the event kicked off in grand display, with endless official black Humvees and security, traditional performances, and as many cameras as could fit inside the venue. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed that the EU will pledge over $10 billion to support infrastructure projects in Central Asia and announced an additional 12 billion euros in investments through the EU’s Global Gateway. The EU’s commitment is widely viewed as a means to rival China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects in the region, providing Central Asian states with greater investment options.
China Seeking to Increase Position in Central Asian Arms Market
Russia has had its hands tied with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, seeing a sharp decline in arms exports in the past three years. Russia’s occupation efforts have seen China and a few European countries pick up where it left off, as Beijing has sold drones to Kazakhstan in 2024 and anti-aircraft systems to Uzbekistan in early 2025. Now Beijing is looking for its next sale, as it is currently in talks with Tashkent over the procurement of JF-17s, the advanced, all-weather, joint Pakistani-Chinese-made fighter jets. In the past six years, China has been the fourth largest arms exporter in the world, after the U.S., France, and Russia.
China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Updates
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway showed off another ceremony in Kyrgyzstan with the construction of a major tunnel in the Jalal-Abad region. The route through southern Kyrgyzstan will be incredibly mountainous, with the Jaman-Davan tunnel proving to be one of the longest and most important in the project. The construction is expected to cover 12.5 kilometers and will be one of 27 tunnels in the entire project. The total length of the railway is projected to cover 523 kilometers, with 46 bridges needing to be built as well to facilitate the route. Over half of the railroad will traverse through Kyrgyzstan. The project is estimated to create 20 thousand jobs and is expected to significantly boost regional connectivity, particularly for the isolated Fergana Valley.
Some analysts argue that the new railway, which would make Kyrgyzstan the second Central Asian country to connect with China via rail, pits Kyrgyzstan against Kazakhstan, triggering regional transit competition. However, given the single-track availability of the CKU through the mountains, it significantly limits the number of wagons that trains will be able to manage, and is therefore not viewed as a feasible project to unseat the volume of cargo traffic entering Kazakhstan. It will, however, provide an alternative route into China from Central Asia, potentially making certain shipments shorter and connecting southern Xinjiang (Kashgar) directly to Central Asia for the first time.
China-Uzbekistan Visa-Free Regime
Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry has confirmed that it will implement a visa-free regime with China, allowing citizens to travel freely in each other’s countries for a period of up to 30 days. The agreement was originally signed this past December, and speculation was churning after delays in the agreement’s implementation.
Central Asia’s Energy Crossroads: A Shift Away from Russia?
As Russia’s gas exports decline, Central Asia faces critical energy decisions. Kazakhstan, long reliant on Russian transit routes, now has a chance to achieve greater independence. Meanwhile, Gazprom is desperately seeking alternative markets as Europe turns away. Kazakhstan could finally push for the long-discussed Trans-Caspian pipeline, reducing dependence on Russian infrastructure. However, Moscow’s attempts to supply gas to northern Kazakhstan complicate the equation, making energy diversification a delicate balancing act.
With Europe cutting imports and Ukraine’s transit agreement set to expire, Gazprom is turning to Central Asia. Yet, experts argue the region lacks the profitability of European markets. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan need gas but may leverage Russia’s weakened position to negotiate better terms. China has further disrupted Gazprom’s plans by rejecting a proposal to transport additional Russian gas through Kazakhstan’s pipeline network. Beijing cited infrastructure limitations and instead reaffirmed its preference for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline via Mongolia. This setback deepens Gazprom’s financial troubles, as the company struggles with mounting losses and project cancellations. If Kazakhstan moves forward with alternative pipelines and Gazprom fails to dominate the region, a historic shift could occur. Central Asia might emerge as an independent energy hub, further solidifying China’s influence in Eurasian energy trade.