From Exile to Endangered: Thaksin's Political Revival on the Verge of Collapse

His house of cards is trembling and his dynasty may not survive the fall.

The outlook of the Thai political landscape has been full of twists and turns in recent years, from the rise of the progressive Future Forward Party, now the People’s Party, to the political truce between the ruling populist Pheu Thai Party and its conservative counterparts, which lasted decades with two coups d’état and countless lives lost. The ultimate twist, however, was the return from Dubai of the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, on August 22, 2023, which suspiciously coincided with his party’s victory in the 2023 election, with Pheu Thai Party’s candidate, Srettha Thavisin, being elected as the 30th Prime Minister of Thailand on the same day.

With Thavisin ousted from office a year later by the Constitutional Court, citing ethics violations, his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, became the 31st prime minister, raising even more eyebrows for becoming the youngest PM in Thailand’s history and the second woman to hold the position, the first being her aunt, Yingluck.

For the general public, his return was not a pure coincidence; it was at least intentional for Thaksin himself as he returned to the elite establishment, escaping his criminal sentence for corruption and living life as a free man.

The political mood in Thailand, however, has been turned upside down once again in 2025 as now pressure is mounting from a political break-up within the cabinet, the border crisis turned full blown political drama show down with Samdech Hun Sen of Cambodia, and to top it all off, Thaksin himself is not attending the Supreme Court hearings which seek to send him back to jail. With all of these issues at hand, uncertainty is exigent for Thaksin as Thailand will be on its way toward treacherous political crossroads in the years ahead.

U-Turn to Establishment

In Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra has been seen as a radical reformer; his first term as prime minister in 2001-2005 has been widely seen as one of the most distinctive premierships in Thailand’s history. He was well known for many policies aimed at the reduction of rural poverty and the creation of universal healthcare, as well as introducing Thailand to the global market, positioning Thailand to be the next economic powerhouse at the time.

As it can be seen now, things did not last long for Thaksin’s premiership as he was ousted by the 2006 coup d’état over corruption allegations, the allegations for which he is still on trial at the Supreme Court in Bangkok, which is seeking to send Thaksin back for at least a year in jail after the royal pardon.

After decades in exile abroad, broadcasting and voicing his fight against the powerful establishment that once ousted him, Thaksin has championed himself as the leading figure of the middle class in Thailand, leading the decades-long feud with the conservative, elite establishment in the country.

After 15 years had gone by, Thaksin finally returned to Thailand, where he was greeted with fanfare and police trucks, to take him into custody the moment his private jet touched down. He then spent time in detention, then was transferred to the police hospital in Bangkok, citing serious medical concerns, before being released on parole on February 18, 2024. As his own daughter soon became the 31st prime minister later that year, Thaksin’s public image changed drastically. Many, once his supporters, have now seen him as being part of the establishment itself, and that he had cut a deal with his own former enemies for him to return to Thailand without serving a single night in prison.

There are many reasons for these two very conflicting parties to unite together, but one stands out and is the most probable: to combat the bigger enemy, the Move Forward Party — the young progressive party that won the most seats in the House of Representatives last election, with the conservative camp barely blocking them from forming a government.

It seems that after almost a decade of military rule and two major coups within the span of two decades, much of the Thai public has been left frustrated and seeking radical change, especially toward the elite establishment whom the public see as the common enemy; one who aggravates social inequalities and is to blame for the country’s stagnant economic growth.

This political truce between Thaksin and the conservative establishment, therefore, can be seen as the ultimate spell to crush the Move Forward Party with their radically progressive agendas, which would bring about massive disadvantages to the elite, to protect the benefits they enjoyed in being the ruling class in Thai society.

Thaksin’s House of Cards

The latest development in Thai politics has been seen as full of manipulation from Thaksin himself. From widely held views that the prime minister, his own daughter, has constantly served as a puppet for Thaksin or even to how most of the cabinet members have been working with Thaksin at one point or another in their political career, his fingerprints can be seen everywhere, in plain sight, throughout the entire administration. At one point, it seemed that Thaksin held all the cards of Thai politics in his hands, until he didn’t.

The first round of uncertainty began on May 28 with the first round of shots fired along the Thai and Cambodian border in the Emerald Triangle region between Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos. While the Cambodian government has taken swift action to submit border disputes to the International Court of Justice, the reaction from the Thai government has been mild and mixed, vowing only to close borders, cut electricity, and restrict internet access across the border. This highlights the accusations that under the premiership of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the Thai government has been led by an inexperienced leader. This is not to mention the leaked phone call between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen, the President of Cambodia’s Senate.

During the phone call, Paetongtarn was heard pleading Hun Sen not to take seriously the stance of the Thai army, whom she referred to as “being the opposite side than us” and promising to “give anything” for the situation to resolve, citing peace and that her administration has been “under constant pressure from the public.” As portions of the leaked phone call were made to the general public, Paetongtarn’s reputation was shattered as she was accused of treason and nepotism due to her informal wording on national matters, as heard on the call.

The consequences of the call were nothing short of disastrous. Paetongtarn has since been suspended from office, and with her departure, Thaksin’s house of cards has begun falling apart one by one, as Paetongtarn is the last viable candidate among Thaksin’s children to assume a role in an elected office. Thaksin himself is now facing charges that put both father and daughter on trial, which could potentially annihilate both of their political careers, and with them, the Shinawatras’ political dynasty.

Thaksin flew too close to the sun and got burnt. Now he and his family will have to face intensified legal pressure with weakening, polarized popular support, all the while, in the background, a growing hostility from the military stokes constant fear of a coup amongst the public.

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The views and information contained in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Asia Cable.