Asian Affairs: September 1-14, 2023

The Biden administration had Southeast Asia squarely in its sights while Kim Jong-un left North Korea for the first time in three years to visit Russia.

Alex Gintz

and

Nick Ayrton

Sep 16, 2023

American president Joe Biden and General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong speak in Hanoi. Photo: The White House

United States, Vietnam Elevate Relations to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

Sept 10

On Sept. 10, American president Joe Biden met with Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, in Hanoi during Biden’s two-day-long visit to Hanoi. The two leaders agreed to enhance relations between their respective countries to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, effectively cementing a mutual commitment to long-term strategic cooperation between the two countries. Relations between the U.S. and Vietnam had previously been bolstered to the Strategic Partnership level in May of 2023.

The agreement elevates the United States to the highest level of partnership that Vietnam awards in its foreign policy. This comes against the backdrop of mounting concern over growing Chinese influence in the region, particularly as Laos and Myanmar shift closer to Beijing. Vietnam currently has stakes counter to those of China in the South China Sea, which has led to numerous encounters between Vietnamese and Chinese vessels. The partnership has been seen by many to be directly influenced by the factor of Chinese power projection in the region. Though these concerns weren’t explicitly mentioned in a joint statement issued by Biden and Nguyen, the statement did affirm that both leaders “supported the promotion of multilateralism, respect for international law, including the United Nations Charter, and the promotion of an open, inclusive regional architecture in which ASEAN plays a central role.”

Despite the aforementioned matters, China also enjoys Comprehensive Strategic Partnership status with Vietnam - the latter has in fact long sought to maintain positive ties with as many countries as it can manage, even if those countries may have countering interests among themselves. Just as there is no shortage of negativity in the history shared by the U.S. and Vietnam, conflict with China broke out periodically throughout the 1970s and 1980s, with China’s People’s Liberation Army invading Vietnam in 1979 before withdrawing only weeks later. Tensions between China and Vietnam, which largely aligned itself with the Soviet Union throughout the Cold War, have not thawed entirely in the time elapsed since the dissolution of the USSR.

Vietnam looks keen to maintain a multifaceted foreign policy strategy, forging alliances it sees as pragmatically beneficial rather than holding issues of principle or governance as paramount. Raising relations with the U.S. to the level of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership may facilitate military cooperation between the two countries, something the partnership with China has not produced and which has faltered over the past two decades in Vietnam’s partnership with Russia. Just as well, the U.S. seems set on maintaining a commitment to an ASEAN-centric status quo in Southeast Asia, as illustrated by Vice President Kamala Harris’ presence at the 11th U.S.-ASEAN Summit earlier in September.

Kamala Harris Attends ASEAN Summit in Jakarta

Sept 5-7

Vice President Kamala Harris's recent diplomatic sojourn to Jakarta, Indonesia, for the U.S.-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit has ignited discussions about the United States' strategic interests and commitments in Southeast Asia. The trip marked Harris' third visit to the region, a clear indicator of the administration's intent to solidify U.S. relationships there. The overarching goal was to counterbalance China's expanding influence in the area, a concern that has been growing among U.S. policymakers and regional allies alike.

Harris' visit was not without its share of controversy, primarily due to President Joe Biden's notable absence from the ASEAN summit. Critics were quick to point out that Biden was already scheduled to visit India and Vietnam around the same time, which made his absence from the ASEAN gathering all the more conspicuous. This led to questions about whether the U.S. was truly prioritizing its relationships in Southeast Asia. In defense, the Biden administration emphasized that Harris's high-profile visit was a testament to the importance the U.S. places on its Indo-Pacific partnerships.

The ASEAN summit itself served as a microcosm of the challenges facing Southeast Asia. The organization, representing a diverse group of 10 nations and over 650 million people, has been grappling with a range of internal issues. From the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar to the simmering territorial disputes in the South China Sea, ASEAN's effectiveness as a regional body has come under scrutiny. These challenges have led to a growing debate about the organization's ability to play a central role in regional geopolitics and security.

Beyond the immediate events of the summit, experts are pointing to the long-term implications of Harris's visit. Her actions and engagements during the trip are seen as part of a broader U.S. strategy aimed at forging stronger and more resilient partnerships in Southeast Asia. This region is increasingly viewed as the front line in the great-power competition between the U.S. and China, making U.S. diplomatic efforts in the area all the more critical.

Kim Jong-un Visits Russia in First Trip Abroad Since 2020

Sept 12-13

Kim Jong-un, leader of North Korea, arrived in Russia on Sept. 12 for a meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in eastern Russia. The trip is Kim’s first journey abroad since the 2019 Koreas-U.S. DMZ Summit in South Korea. Putin and Kim last met in the Russian city of Vladivostok in April of 2019.

During their summit, Kim pledged unwavering support for Russia's actions in Ukraine, while Putin made public acknowledgment of Russia’s intention to assist North Korea in areas such as rocket and satellite development. Moreover, North Korea appears close to finalizing a significant arms deal with Russia, amplifying concerns that Moscow is becoming increasingly desperate to prolong its military involvement in Ukraine at any cost.

There is also concern that a deal could be reached between the two countries which would facilitate North Korea’s supplying of arms and ammunition to Russia, while arms have been flowing back and forth between the United States and South Korea; this includes Korean artillery shells making their way to the U.S. as well as several American fighter jets being approved for sale to South Korea.

North Korean state media said that Kim and Putin “exchanged in-depth views on the remarkable successes and experience of constructive cooperation gained in all fields of politics, economy, military and culture for attaining the strategic goals of building a powerful state, and the future development orientation for national prosperity and well-being of the peoples of the two countries.”

G20 Convenes in India Without Xi, Putin

Sept 9-10

In a summit marked by the absence of key global leaders, the G20 meeting held in India's capital, New Delhi, concluded with a mixed bag of achievements and criticisms. The summit, which aimed to address pressing issues like global economic recovery, climate change, and the ongoing pandemic, saw the participation of U.S. President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi among others.

The two leaders took the opportunity to strengthen bilateral ties, discussing the Quad—a strategic forum involving the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia. However, the absence of China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin loomed large over the proceedings, particularly when discussions turned to the Ukraine conflict.

While the summit managed to reach a compromise on Ukraine, avoiding a split among the member nations, it stopped short of condemning Russia. Instead, the joint declaration highlighted the human suffering caused by the conflict. Commentators have criticized the summit for its lack of concrete achievements, particularly in areas like debt management and climate change.

A significant development was the admission of the African Union as a new permanent member, representing 55 countries from across the continent. This move was seen as a victory for developing economies and for India, the host nation. Additionally, a new network of railways and shipping routes was announced by the U.S., India, Saudi Arabia, and the EU, aimed at increasing trade between South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, while also countering China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The Asia Cable

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