Asian Affairs: July 15-31, 2023
An American soldier's shocking flight to North Korea drew the attention of the world, while one of China's top diplomats was unceremoniously removed from office.
American Solider Crosses DMZ, Enters North Korea
July 18
Travis King, 23, crossed the border between North and South Korea while on a civilian tour of the Demilitarized Zone. A United States Army soldier, King was deployed in South Korea and facing dishonorable discharge at the time of his entry into North Korea by foot in the Joint Security Area. King reportedly entered a van on North Korean soil and was driven away from the area.
King’s crossing of the border came days before the July 27 anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement, which effectively ended open hostilities in the Korean War, though no peace treaty was ever signed between the countries involved. Attempts to contact North Korean authorities regarding King’s condition or whereabouts have been unsuccessful, according to the Pentagon.
Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, predicts that, despite their unusual silence on the matter, North Korean authorities will seek to capitalize on King’s entry into the country in some form of propaganda.
“It’s likely that North Korea will use the soldier for propaganda purposes in the short term and then as a bargaining chip,” Yang told the Associated Press.
King is the first American to be detained in North Korea since Bruce Byron Lowrence crossed into the country via China in October 2018. Lowrence was released after 31 days in North Korean custody. Many will recall the much more high-profile case involving Otto Warmbier, an American student who was arrested on charges of subversion after allegedly attempting to steal a poster from the Yonggakdo International Hotel in Pyongyang. Warmbier’s return to the U.S. in a comatose state and death days later came a few months before all U.S. passports were declared invalid for travel in, to, or through North Korea. This de facto ban on American tourism to North Korea remains in effect to date.
Qin Gang Removed From Office, Wang Yi Returns to Position of Foreign Minister
July 25
After 207 days in office, Chinese diplomat Qin Gang was removed from his position of Minister of Foreign Affairs, with Wang Yi returning to the post for his second term as foreign minister.
Speculation was widespread regarding Qin’s political status after he disappeared from public view earlier in July. Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) spokesperson Wang Wenbin announced on July 11 that Wang Yi would attend the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Summit in Qin’s place. While Qin’s absence from the ASEAN Summit was initially described as being health-related, a decree dated July 25 and adopted by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress stated that Qin had been removed from office with Wang once again appointed as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Qin’s 2017-day-long tenure is the shortest for a foreign minister in the People’s Republic of China’s nearly-74-year history. After ascending to his current post during leadership shuffling during October 2022’s 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Qin was pegged by many to be a Xi Jinping loyalist, but Ian Johnson, Stephen A. Schwarzman Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, does not see Qin’s removal from office as an exceptionally significant event in relation to the state of Chinese foreign policy.
The truth will eventually come out—it usually does in China, although it sometimes takes months or years—but the way he was dismissed makes it unlikely that it was for health reasons … Qin’s departure will mean little to China’s foreign policy; foreign ministers are career civil servants who carry out decisions made by the party. Rather, the key point is that Xi Jinping has suffered yet another embarrassingly public setback, one in a string that calls into question his judgment as he now rules alone at the top of the party.
Rumors have been circulating that Qin, who is married with one son, may have been involved in an affair, potentially with Hong Kong-based journalist Fu Xiaotian. Fu’s recent absence from public view, in contrast to her normally active social media presence, has sparked suspicions that her and Qin’s respective situations may be related.
Qin’s ousting was revealed shortly after newly-minted centenarian Henry Kissinger made an unexpected visit to Beijing. In contrast to the proverbial cold shoulder given to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin earlier this summer, Kissinger enjoyed a warm welcome from Chinese leadership including Xi Jinping, Wang Yi, and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu. Days before Kissinger’s arrival, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry undertook a three-day visit to China with the aim of bolstering climate-focused cooperation between the two countries. Kerry’s visit marks the resumption of high-level climate dialogue after roughly a year of limbo on the matter.
Taliban Representatives Visit Indonesia
July 25
Representatives of the Taliban-led government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan traveled to Indonesia during the second week of July.
International recognition of the Taliban government has been a tricky landscape to map out since the fall of Kabul to its forces in 2021. Amir Khan Muttaqi, Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, has made many trips abroad throughout the Islamic world, as well as China and Norway. However, despite several countries operating embassies within the Emirate, it remains unclear how the government - internationally condemned for human rights abuses - will manage to establish and maintain widespread international recognition.
Indonesia has been careful with its language when discussing the visit. Teuku Faizasyah, spokesperson for the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told the Associated Foreign Press that the visit was unofficial in nature. “My understanding is that they were in Jakarta informally for internal matters with the Afghanistan mission here.”
Meanwhile, Hafiz Zia Ahmad, Deputy Spokesman and Assistant Director of Public Relations, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, described the visit as being led by a delegation, suggesting the Emirate’s position on the visit may be that it was a matter of diplomacy rather than one of internal focus as the Indonesian foreign ministry would suggest. Ahmad further implicated other countries such as Sri Lanka and Singapore in his account of the visit on Twitter while also stating that the group met with politicians, scholars, and businessmen.
As the world’s largest majority-Muslim country in terms of population, Indonesia may prove a crucial component in Afghanistan’s foreign policy strategy. Afghanistan’s relationship with the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation appears to have soured after a January 2023 communique described some of the Taliban government’s practices, such as barring women and girls from access to education, as “in violation of the purposes of Islamic law and the methodology of the Messenger of Allah, Prophet Muhammad - May Allah’s peace and blessings be upon Him.”
Both countries’ foreign ministries have been otherwise silent on the matter in their official channels of communication.
Taiwan Holds Anti-Invasion Drills Ahead of Arms Deal with U.S.
July 26
Taiwan recently conducted its annual anti-invasion exercises. Known as Han Kuang, these exercises represent Taiwan's largest military drills, designed to evaluate the island's defense capabilities against a potential invasion from mainland China. These drills come as July had the second-highest amount Chinese military of activity within Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) so far in 2023.
These meticulously designed drills simulated the defense of critical infrastructure and the disruption of blockades to maintain open maritime lanes, all under a hypothetical scenario of a Chinese invasion. The exercises also encompassed an anti-airborne operation at the Taoyuan International Airport, a move that disrupted flights and affected maritime transport at the Port of Taipei.
Simultaneously, the U.S. announced a $345 million arms package for Taiwan, marking the initial portion of a total $1 billion commitment. Utilizing newly granted Congressional authority, the U.S. will directly transfer military equipment from the Department of Defense's inventory to Taiwan. This package, announced by the Biden administration, is anticipated to include MQ-9A Reaper drones and small arms ammunition, as per a former Department of Defense official.
While the U.S. does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, it has consistently supported Taipei's self-defense capability through arms sales and a close military relationship. The recent arms deal is a historic first, marking the first time the U.S. will directly transfer military equipment from Pentagon stockpiles to Taiwan.
The U.S’ bolstering of Taiwan's defense comes amidst mounting tensions with China. Beijing has expressed strong criticism of American support for Taiwan, viewing it as an interference in Chinese foreign affairs. Taiwan is viewed by China as an integral part of its territory, and Beijing has not dismissed the possibility of employing force to assert its sovereignty over the island.
The recent arms deal between the U.S. and Taiwan, coupled with Taiwan's anti-invasion exercises, are perceived as countermeasures to China's escalating military intimidation of the island. Over recent months, China has amplified its military activities near Taiwan, including frequent flights into Taiwan’s ADIZ with dozens of warplanes often involved.
The situation in Taiwan represents a flashpoint in U.S.-China relations, with both nations vying for influence in the region. While the U.S. seeks to rebuild relations with Beijing, tensions over a range of issues, including U.S. support for Taiwan and China's military activities, continue to strain the relationship.
Cambodian People’s Party Wins Big in Controversial General Election
July 23rd
In Cambodia’s national elections, Prime Minister Hun Sen's party, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), claimed a landslide victory. However, critics and international observers have labeled the election as the country's least free and fair vote in decades.
The election, held on July 23, 2023, saw an 84.6% voter turnout, according to the National Election Committee. The CPP spokesperson, Sok Eysan, stated that the party has won a significant majority, although the exact figures are yet to be confirmed. The only other party to secure seats was the royalist FUNCINPEC party, which won five seats.
The election was marred by controversy and criticism due to the suppression and intimidation of the opposition, argued by Western states. The European Union, the United States, and other Western countries refused to send observers, stating that the election lacked the conditions to be considered free and fair. The only international officials present were from Russia, China, and Guinea-Bissau.
The main opposition, the Candlelight Party, was disqualified from participating in the vote due to a registration technicality, which critics have blasted as another example of Hun Sen's suppression of democratic participation in the country. This left the CPP with little to no competition, leading to what many consider a one-sided election.
Hun Sen, who has been in power for the last 38 years, has been known for his strong-arm tactics and consolidation of power. However, at age 70, and just 4 days following the election he has announced he is handing over power to his son, Hun Manet. Hun Manet, a West Point graduate and chief of Cambodia's army, show’s no signs of differing from his father's political outlook, including the close ties with China.
In a nationally televised, Hun Sen declared, "I met the king, and announced I won't continue the position as prime minister anymore." He emphasized the gravity of his decision, stating, "I must sacrifice and relinquish power."
"Hun Manet... will become the prime minister in the coming weeks," he confirmed. The transition of power is expected to be formalized with royal approval on August 10, followed by an official swearing-in ceremony on August 22.
Reflecting on his decision, Hun Sen acknowledged the need for a generational shift in the country's leadership. He expressed his belief that it was time to make way for younger leaders to steer the nation's course but will also stay on to lead the Cambodia’s People’s Party.
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