Asian Affairs: April 14-30, 2023
Asian Affairs: April 14-30, 2023
The second half of April 2023 saw Presidents Zelenskyy and Xi engage in their first phone call since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while Prime Minister Fumio Kishida survived an attack on his life.
Xi Jinping, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Speak via Telephone
April 26th
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy engaged in their first known phone discussion since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. This one-hour dialogue has been viewed as a significant move toward China positioning itself as a potential mediator in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. However, the conversation has also raised doubts due to China's close alliance with Russia and its hesitant stance towards explicitly condemning the invasion.
The call, which came at a time when China is seeking to strengthen its relations with Europe amidst strained ties with the US, was received with a mix of skepticism and cautious optimism. Although the specific details on how China might contribute to resolving the conflict are still unclear, Xi committed to sending a special envoy to facilitate peace talks, mirroring China's actions in previous regional conflicts. The two heads of state also discussed matters including but not limited to: the return of Ukrainian children deported from Russian-occupied territories, the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war, and the continued operation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Zelenskyy emphasized the need for a "just and lasting" peace that would restore Ukraine's territorial integrity within its 1991 borders, while Xi reiterated China's stance of promoting peace and negotiations based on mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
China's potential mediator role, however, is met with skepticism, particularly due to its close relationship with Russia. Since the onset of the conflict, China has maintained frequent contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while delaying a direct dialogue with Zelenskyy. Further, China's 12-point peace proposal, which was largely dismissed by Western countries, is viewed as favoring Russia as it calls for a ceasefire without requiring a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian land.
The phone call also followed a controversial statement from China's ambassador to France that questioned the sovereignty of post-Soviet states, exacerbating tensions with Europe. Some analysts suggest that Xi's outreach to Zelenskyy might be an attempt to repair this diplomatic fallout and enhance China's global standing.
The same day of his phone call with Xi, President Zelenskyy appointed Pavlo Riabikin, former Minister of Strategic Industries, as Ambassador of Ukraine to China.
Despite the diplomatic maneuvering, the violent conflict in Ukraine continues unabated, with Russian forces intensifying their attacks in the south of the former Soviet republic, and economic tensions escalating as Russia nationalizes local subsidiaries of major European energy firms.
China and India Deliberate Border Tensions
April 19th
In the days leading up to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defense Ministers' gathering, India and China engaged in a series of discussions aiming to alleviate the border standoff in eastern Ladakh, which has been ongoing since the middle of 2020. Lieutenant General Rashim Bali, the new Leh-based 14 Corps Commander, represented India in these talks. These dialogues focused on the disengagement from Demchok and Depsang Plains.
This crucial dialogue took place in anticipation of the SCO Defense Ministers' meeting hosted by India, where the Chinese Defense Minister was due to participate. Furthermore, India is preparing to host the SCO and G20 summits later this year, with Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to India expected.
Tensions between the two Asian powerhouses escalated following border clashes in 2020 in Aksai Chin-Ladakh, which claimed the lives of several soldiers from both sides. A subsequent altercation in the Tawang Sector of India's northeastern Arunachal Pradesh region in December resulted in more injuries.
The disputed border has been a persistent source of conflict, culminating in the 1962 Sino-Indian War, which saw China gain a significant portion of territory. The border dispute resolution was the focus of the 18th round of talks between India and China.
In a recent bilateral meeting, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh stressed to his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu that border violations erode the fundamental basis of India-China relations, and the situation must be de-escalated through disengagement.
Li Shangfu's visit to India, where he will attend the SCO defense ministers' meeting, marks the first by a Chinese defense minister since the deadly 2020 clash. This meeting will offer an opportunity to exchange views on international and regional situations and defense and security cooperation.
The border dispute was also the subject of discussion in a recent meeting held in Beijing between the two countries, with proposals for disengagement being discussed openly and constructively. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stated that China had violated border management agreements, marking a significant tension point in India's relationship with major global powers.
India assumed the chair of the SCO summit in 2023, signifying a crucial role in regional security matters. Upcoming SCO gatherings will also see significant visits, such as that by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, marking the most senior-level visit from Pakistan to India in seven years.
Shanghai Cooperation Defense Minister’s Meeting hosted in India
April 28th
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Eurasian political, economic and security alliance, recently held a meeting hosted by India. The meeting brought to light regional tensions, particularly with India's Defense Minister, Rajnath Singh, calling for collective action against terrorism. His remarks were seen as a critique of Pakistan, a fellow SCO member that India accuses of sponsoring terrorism in Kashmir. Notably, Pakistan participated in the meeting virtually, not in person.
Just a day before the SCO meeting, Singh engaged in bilateral talks with his Chinese counterpart. This represents another source of tension for New Delhi due to the ongoing border disputes in the Himalayas between the two nations.
During the meeting, Russia's Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, voiced criticism against Western attempts to isolate Russia over its conflict with Ukraine, while advocating for enhanced military cooperation within the SCO.
In spite of the regional complexities, all SCO members - China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan - arrived at a consensus regarding the condemnation of terrorism and the need for humanitarian cooperation. The meeting concluded with the signing of a protocol, underlining their shared commitment to regional security and prosperity.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Survives Attack in Wakayama
April 15th
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida escaped injury after having an explosive device thrown in his direction during a campaign event on April 15.
The incident occurred as Kishida spoke in the city of Wakayama. As Kishida prepared to begin a stump speech in support of a parliamentary candidate, an on-looker produced what appeared to be a pipe bomb and threw the object toward Kishida. While the Prime Minister was unharmed, two individuals at the scene were injured when the device exploded seconds later. The assailant appeared to be preparing to toss a second device when he was restrained by two local men.
The suspect, Ryuji Kimura, was apprehended at the scene. In the days following the attack, it was reported by The Japan Times that Kimura had filed a lawsuit in a Kobe court in June 2022, alleging that he had been unfairly barred from participating in an election due to his age. Kimura also called the Japanese government’s decision to go forward with a state funeral for Shinzo Abe following the former Prime Minister’s assassination last year, which proved unpopular in Japan, a “challenge to democracy.”
Video footage of the incident can be found here, courtesy of NHK.
For many, the incident sparked memories of the assassination of Abe in July of 2022, whose killing shocked Japan, where both gun violence and political violence are extremely rare. A widespread desire for clarity surrounding the security protocol for Japanese politicians was ignited by Abe’s death and has once again come to the forefront following the attack on Kishida.
Presidents Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol Meet, Issue Washington Declaration
April 26th
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol touched down in the US on Monday, April 24 for a six-day long state visit. Yoon met with American President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris as part of his itinerary in the US before departing on April 29.
Yoon and Biden released a joint statement on April 26, commemorating the 70th anniversary of the US-South Korea Alliance, which affirmed the two countries’ commitment to denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and further deepening ties with the G7 nations and NATO, and condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The two leaders also issued the Washington Declaration, which emphasized which affirmed Washington’s commitment to managing the “threat to the nonproliferation regime posed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)” and to “make every effort to consult with the ROK on any possible nuclear weapons employment on the Korean Peninsula.”
The Korea Central News Agency, a state-owned publication in North Korea, referred to the meeting between Yoon and Biden as meaning to “draw up a sinister plan to annihilate the DPRK” and accused the US of “very hostile rhetorical expressions.”
The domestic response in South Korea has been reported by NPR as mixed, with some officials finding the agreement to be lopsided, an example of South Korea “giving more than it got.”
Isn’t everything over for the Korean peninsula the moment North Korea launches an attack? … No one on this small peninsula will be spared. What good will it do to strike back?
-Youn Kun-young, Member of the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea - Democratic Party
Further, the United States affirmed its commitment to “further enhance the regular visibility of strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula, as evidenced by the upcoming visit of a US nuclear ballistic missile submarine to the ROK, and [to] expand and deepen coordination between our militaries.”
President Yoon returned to Seoul on April 29 to what Choe Sang-hun, writing for The New York Times, described as a “decidedly colder audience" than that which received him in the US, that is to say a domestic populace that holds ample skepticism regarding Yoon’s efforts to align South Korea closely with the US and Japan, potentially alienating China in the process.
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