Asian Affairs: April 1-14
French President Emmanuel Macron issued some controversial comments during a state visit to China, while North Korea continued a string of weapons tests which have drawn the attention of the world.
Emmanuel Macron Meets Xi Jinping, Li Qiang in China
French President Emmanuel Macron touched down in China for his third international trip to the People’s Republic since 2018. During the visit which spanned from April 5 to April 8, Macron met with General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and President of China Xi Jinping and Premier of China Li Qiang, among others.
Among the most widely discussed aspects of Macron’s trip to China, including stops in Beijing and Guangzhou, were his remarks suggesting that Europe could adopt a position of “strategic autonomy,” arguing that Europe should pursue an independent foreign policy posture, rather than following a policy line laid out by the United States or China. Macron’s trip was expected to feature heavily the ongoing war in Ukraine. However, through President Macron’s urging that China not provide Russia with any supplies that may aid the Russian war effort, President Xi remained firm in his stance that the war in Ukraine is not China’s affair.
Macron’s "strategic autonomy” comments brought backlash from many observers, including former President Donald Trump, who accused Macron of “kissing Xi’s ass” in an interview with Fox News on April 11.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, responded positively when questioned on Macron’s comments by the Associated Foreign Press:
As a journalist from AFP, you are particularly interested in President Macron’s visit to China, which I think is understandable. Not long ago, French President Emmanuel Macron paid a successful visit to China, during which the two sides reached important common understandings. The visit injected new impetus into China-France and EU cooperation.
It comes as no surprise that President Macron’s view that Europe should develop more strategic autonomy and avoid getting entangled in bloc confrontation has attracted some criticism, especially from the US. From our perspective, certain country is reluctant to see other countries being independent, and often seeks to coerce others into doing its bidding. But the truth is, strategic autonomy will bring more respect and friends, while coercion and pressure will only cause more resistance and opposition.
-WangWenbin, Spokesperson - Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Macron’s visit stands in stark contrast to a visit made by another European head of state only six months ago.
Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz’s November 2022 visit to China was met with similar controversy from international observers, but not for the same reasons by which Macron now finds himself under the proverbial microscope.
Writing for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Lily McElwee notes that Scholz’s decision to be accompanied by a cohort of German business leaders triggered flashbacks to the business oriented approach of his predecessor, Angela Merkel, which has “largely lost favor” among Germans and the broader European Union. Scholz affirmed the importance of business within the context of international engagement with China in a piece published with Politico shortly before his trip, while also reiterating that Germany would not ignore the more difficult issues surrounding China either. To wit: “We will seek cooperation where it lies in our mutual interest, but we will not ignore controversies either. For that is part and parcel of a candid exchange between Germany and China.”
Whereas Scholz found his feet to the fire over being perceived as too close to China, having once pushed a controversial Chinese effort to buy a share of a Hamburg container port through the approval process, and allegedly wearing rose-colored glasses when looking at the People’s Republic. Macron, on the other hand, is coming under fire for allegedly speaking out of turn in regards to Europe’s strategic positioning on the international stage.
One French diplomat, speaking anonymously to Reuters, accused Macron of “unwittingly helping Beijing to dismantle transatlantic unity at the time of war in Europe, when it is most needed”
Foreign Minister of the Czech Republic Jan Lipavsky echoed this sentiment in more diplomatic terms, saying “strong transatlantic relations between Europe and the US are the foundation of our security … Europe must invest more in its own security, but I do not see that as an obstacle or a limit for cooperation with the USA.”
The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, a global group of parliamentary politicians focused on reforming the approach of democratic countries toward China, issued what may be the most scathing response to Macron’s comments.
Macron’s visit also took place concurrently with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s controversial transit through the United States. Tsai’s trip, billed as an apolitical transit through the US en route to Guatemala and Belize, saw the President stop first in New York on March 29, and then in Los Angeles on April 4 before meeting with Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy.
As the question of strengthening the American relationship with Taiwan gains bipartisan support at the Congressional level in the United States and consequently throughout the Western world at varying levels, the contrast of Macron’s comments against the general political zeitgeist vis-a-vis China and Taiwan could not be starker.
North Korea Tests Second Underwater Vessel, Triggers Evacuation in Japan
Less than two weeks after its most recent test of an underwater, nuclear-capable attack drown dubbed Haeil-1, North Korea has confirmed a second test, this time for Haeil-2, on April 4.
According to the state-owned Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Haeil-2 traversed a 1,000 kilometer (621 mile) long, elliptical and figure-eight path in the Sea of Japan from April 4 to April 7; a total travel time of 71 hours and six minutes. KCNA also reported, as with last time, that the vessel’s underwater test warhead was accurately detonated without incident.
The Haeil-2 vessel - “haeil” roughly translating to “tsunami” in English, was described by several North Korean news sources as one which “will serve as an advantageous and prospective military potential of the armed forces of the DPRK essential for containing all evolving military actions of enemies, removing threats and defending the country.”
It was further reported, first by Reuters and awaiting confirmation from North Korean sources, that the state had launched a ballistic missile toward Japan, which landed in the waters between the two countries. The incident prompted the issuing of an evacuation order in Hokkaido, the northernmost of Japan’s main islands. According to Yonhap News Agency, one of the major agencies in South Korea, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) confirmed that the launch was detected in the vicinity of Pyongyang shortly after 7:00 a.m. Korea Standard Time (KST) on Thursday, April 13.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s office issued a set of instructions for residents to follow in response to the missile launch at 7:29 a.m. on Thursday, likewise Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno addressed the press twice on the 13th, confirming that the missile’s flight course was detected around 7:22 a.m. tracked by Japan and the information gathered from this flight path triggered the activation of an alarm system in Hokkaido. Matsuno also confirmed that no objects had been detected landing in or on Japanese territory.
On Friday, April 14, KCNA also announced that North Korea had tested a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (IBCM) on the 13th. The test fire was the first confirmed unveiling of the new Hwasongpho-18, which was described by KCNA as “fulfill[ing] its mission of an important war deterrent as the future core pivotal means of the strategic force of the DPRK.”
The multi-stage missile was reported to have stages landing first off the coast of Kumya Count in eastern North Korea, then further into the waters east of Orang County, which lies further north toward the Chinese border.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen Meets With US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles
On April 6th, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met with United States Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy and a bipartisan group of lawmakers at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. This landmark meeting marked the second time Tsai has met with an American lawmaker of that rank within a year, following a visit from then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August. Tsai also holds the distinction of being the first Taiwanese president to have a meeting with a House Speaker on US soil.
Tsai's delegation made a planned stopover in California following official visits to Taiwan’s diplomatic allies Guatemala and Belize – part of a 10-day tour to shore up Taipei’s overseas relationships amid increasing pressure from Beijing.
Tsai's stopovers in the US, which included New York, also saw her meeting with three US senators: Republican Sens. Joni Ernst and Dan Sullivan and Democratic Sen. Mark Kellyprior to her visiting Guatemala and Belize. These meetings come amid heightened tensions between the US and China.
During the meeting, McCarthy emphasized the importance of the relationship between Taiwan and America, stating, “The friendship between the people of Taiwan and America is a matter of profound importance to the free world. It is critical to maintain economic freedom, peace, and regional stability.”
Tsai expressed gratitude for the support from the US, saying, “We’re stronger when we are together. In our efforts to protect our way of life, Taiwan is grateful to have the United States by our side.”
These unprecedented meetings signify the strengthening of US-Taiwan ties in the face of rising tensions with China. The US continues to acknowledge China's position that Taiwan is part of China but has never officially recognized Beijing's claim to the island of 23 million. The US is also legally bound to provide the democratic island with the means to defend itself.
Tsai's meeting coincided with French President Emmanuel Macron's controversial visit to Beijing, which seemingly delayed Beijing's military response, highlighting the delicate balance of international diplomacy in the region.
Following Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy and French President Macron’s departure from China, Beijing held military drills around Taiwan. The drills involved a higher number of aircraft and vessels than previous exercises, peaking with the launch of 91 aircraft on April 10. While the planes passed through Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, they did not enter Taiwanese airspace.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Eyes Closer Brazil-China Ties in State Visit
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited China with the goal of strengthening diplomatic ties and promoting economic cooperation between the two countries. During the visit, Lula criticized the dominant role of the US dollar in the global economy and the practices of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He advocated for the use of alternative currencies for trade, such as the Chinese yuan and Brazilian real, rather than relying on the dollar. The Brazilian president also seeks to reposition Brazil as a key global player after years of relative isolation under his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. Lula's visit to China covered several topics, including deepening trade ties, the Ukraine war, and the recent deal allowing Brazil and China to conduct trade in their own currencies instead of using the US dollar as an intermediary.
As Brazil's largest trading partner, China has played a crucial role in the Latin American country's economy. Lula sought to expand this relationship further by engaging in discussions with Chinese officials and business leaders, exploring potential investments and collaboration in various sectors, such as technology, agriculture, and especially manufacturing which has declined according to Brazil’s national statistics institute. During Lula’s trip he toured Huawei’s Research facility and met with the CEO of BYD – China’s top electric car manufacturer. BYD is planning on opening a factory after Ford closed its production plant in Bahia, a state in northern Brazil. Lula also visited the New Development Bank to attend former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s swearing in as the head of the bank. The Bank is a multilateral bank established by the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) nations, intended to be an IMF replacement.
A key development between Brazil and China is the recent March deal allowing the two countries to conduct trade in their own currencies, bypassing the US dollar as an intermediary. This move is seen as a challenge to the dominance of the US dollar in international trade and a way to strengthen the economic relationship between Brazil and China. Under the agreement, both countries have designated banks that will handle their massive trade and financial transactions by directly exchanging the Chinese yuan for the Brazilian real.
Both Brazil and China have positioned themselves as mediators in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Lula's visit to Beijing offered an opportunity for the two leaders to discuss their roles in this situation. While China and Brazil have faced criticism from Western countries for their perceived closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin, both nations have refused to join Western-led sanctions against Russia. During Lula's visit, he and Chinese President Xi Jinping talked about the conflict and emphasized the importance of finding a negotiated settlement to the crisis. The message on Ukraine reflected some of China’s points, but it did differ from Beijing’s position paper on the conflict that the west has criticized as pro-Russia.
Philippines - US Military Balikatan Military Exercise
The Philippines, the United States, and Australia are currently conducting Balikatan, the largest US- Philippine exercise to date. Balikatan, meaning "shoulder-to-shoulder" in Tagalog, will involve 17,600 military personnel and encompass an array of live-fire maneuvers, including a ship-sinking exercise and beach assaults designed to simulate the retaking of an island in the disputed South China Sea.
Since 2014, Australia has been participating in the annual Balikatan exercises, reflecting the deepening cooperation and unity among the three nations as they confront emerging regional security challenges. This year's exercise represents a considerable escalation in scale and complexity, signaling the shifting geopolitical landscape in the region. The Balikatan exercise seeks to bolster interoperability, readiness, and the capacity of the participating nations to effectively counter diverse security threats. This development underscores the strengthening ties between the US and the Philippines recently.
The Expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) also exemplifies the growing collaboration between the two nations. This agreement permits US forces to utilize Philippine bases for joint training, equipment pre-positioning, and infrastructure development, including runways, fuel storage, and military housing. However, it does not allow for a permanent US presence on Philippine soil.
On April 11, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with their Philippine counterparts, Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrigque Manalo and Acting Secretary of National Defense Carlito Galvez, in Washington, D.C., for the third US-Philippine Ministerial Dialogue. The focus of the meeting was the 2+2 Roadmap, with key outcomes including the expansion of the EDCA to encompass four new sites in Palawan and Northern Luzon and the allocation of over $100 million by the US Department of Defense for infrastructure investments.
The United States and the Philippines will continue to prioritize the modernization of shared defense capabilities through a range of mechanisms, such as U.S. Foreign Military Financing and Excess Defense Articles as well as:
Committing to adopt expeditiously a Security Sector Assistance Roadmap, which will guide shared defense modernization investments and the delivery over the next five to 10 years of priority defense platforms, as well as institutional capacity-building to enhance the Philippines’ multi-domain deterrence.
Holding focused discussions on an acquisition plan for a fleet of multi-role fighter aircraft for the Philippine Air Force and leveraging the additional $100 million in Foreign Military Financing that the United States announced last fall to support the acquisition of medium-lift helicopters.
The dialogue also emphasized speeding up discussions on new US-Philippines Bilateral Defense Guidelines and reaffirming the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty's extension to both nations' armed forces, specifically mentioning their respective coast guards. The meeting aimed to enhance interoperability through consultations on regional security issues, boosting operational cooperation, and finalizing plans for combined maritime activities. Furthermore, the dialogue highlighted the significance of community-based activities led by USAID in disaster relief, education, healthcare, and energy security.
Notably, the dialogue underscored the Philippines' ongoing military modernization efforts. Initially slated to begin in 1995, the Asian Financial Crisis forced Manila to prioritize other concerns, and subsequent administrations neglected the initiative until its revival in 2012. Within the roadmap, the US seeks to expedite capability development by prioritizing shared defense modernization through mechanisms such as US Foreign Military Financing and Excess Defense Articles. This collaborative approach demonstrates the nation's commitment to addressing the evolving security landscape in the Indo-Pacific region.
Notable Mentions
Starting with the first edition of Asian Affairs, we’ll be providing some honorable mentions of other important developments in Asia with every edition. See below:
Qin Gang Meets Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Tashkent
Chinese Court Upholds Death Sentence for American Businessman
China Signals Adjustment of Stance on Debt Restructuring
Ya Ya, Panda, Returns to China After 20 Years in Memphis Zoo
Japan, Netherlands Commit to New Export Controls on Semiconductor Equipment
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