Asia Daily: September 9, 2024
News
China says ties with Philippines at a crossroads over South China Sea. China warned that relations with the Philippines are at a critical point due to ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, urging Manila to consider the future of their bilateral ties. Recent incidents, including mutual accusations of ramming coast guard vessels, have strained relations. China emphasized dialogue as the solution, rejecting conflict, and called for cooperation to restore trust. The dispute centers on territorial claims in resource-rich waters where international rulings have dismissed China's broad assertions. Joe Cash, Reuters, September 9
New Taiwan de facto envoy to Japan vows to uphold democracy. Taiwan’s new de facto ambassador to Japan, Lee Yi-yang, pledged to uphold freedom and democracy by strengthening cooperation with Japan as he assumed his new role. Appointed by President Lai Ching-te's administration, Lee replaces Frank Hsieh and will lead the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan's de facto embassy in Japan. Lee emphasized his commitment to maintaining regional peace and promoting bilateral developments amid the absence of formal diplomatic ties. Kyodo News, September 9
China and Singapore must boost coordination as ‘stabilising forces’, Wang Yi says. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Singapore to enhance strategic coordination and communication amid global turmoil during a meeting with Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan in Beijing. The discussions focused on aligning their development strategies and strengthening the bilateral relationship, described as an "all-round, high-quality and forward-looking partnership." The two nations emphasized collaboration in areas like trade, green development, and digital economy, and reiterated their commitment to free trade and multilateralism. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, September 9
Myanmar’s home affairs minister flies to China for security forum. Myanmar’s Home Affairs Minister Lieutenant-General Yar Pyae attended the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum in Jiangsu Province, China, to discuss joint security efforts. The visit focused on enhancing collaboration against cross-border crime and ensuring the safety of Chinese investments in Myanmar. This trip marks a significant diplomatic engagement, aligning Myanmar's military government closely with Chinese interests amid ongoing regional security issues. The Irrawaddy, September 9
Indonesian president-elect visits Laos, forges stronger bilateral, regional ties. Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto met with Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith in Vientiane to strengthen bilateral cooperation and discuss ASEAN initiatives. The visit included discussions on enhancing economic and educational ties, as well as Indonesia's $1 million pledge to support Laos' role as ASEAN Summit host. Prabowo’s visit is part of his broader strategy to solidify Indonesia's regional alliances ahead of taking office. Phonethida Sitthixay, The Laotian Times, September 9
North Korean weapons extending Russian stockpiles, German general says. Germany's Chief of Defence, General Carsten Breuer, stated that North Korea's supply of weapons to Russia is bolstering Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine by maintaining its domestic stockpiles. Breuer highlighted that Russia's reliance on North Korean arms indicates their utility in the conflict. This comes amid allegations from the U.S. and Ukraine that North Korea has sent significant military aid to Russia, which both Moscow and Pyongyang deny. Breuer also emphasized the importance of international support for Ukraine, including anti-aircraft devices and infantry fighting vehicles. Josh Smith, Reuters, September 9
Any graft and we're out, Thailand's Democrat Party says. The Democrat Party of Thailand, led by secretary-general Dech-it Khaothong, has pledged to leave the coalition government immediately if corruption is detected within the administration. This declaration was made after a special cabinet meeting discussing anti-corruption measures and constitutional amendments. Dech-it emphasized the party's commitment to a graft-free government and indicated regular performance evaluations. A recent survey showed mixed public support for the Democrats' decision to join the coalition, with significant opposition among respondents. Apinya Wipatayotin, Bangkok Post, September 9
Top Vietnamese legislator calls for measures to facilitate travel between Vietnam and Russia. Chairman of Việt Nam's National Assembly Tran Thanh Man urged enhanced measures to facilitate travel and labor exchanges between Viet Nam and Russia during talks with Russian State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin in Moscow. Both sides discussed bolstering the comprehensive strategic partnership and agreed on the importance of inter-parliamentary cooperation and people-to-people exchanges. Vietnam News, September 9
Singapore passes law to ration power during emergencies, set up energy fund. Singapore has granted the Energy Market Authority the power to implement electricity rationing during severe crises, focusing on essential services first. The legislation also introduced a Future Energy Fund with an initial S$5 billion investment to support clean energy projects. Additional measures include centralizing gas procurement and updating infrastructure planning rules to bolster energy security. Concerns were raised about potential electricity price increases due to these new decarbonization efforts. Koh Wan Ting and Abigail Ng, Channel News Asia, September 9
Spanish prime minister visits China during dispute over electric vehicles. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing amid tensions over electric vehicle tariffs and trade issues. Both leaders emphasized the importance of free trade, but did not resolve the dispute over the EU's proposed 36.7% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and China’s investigation into EU pork imports. Despite the tensions, Spain remains open to Chinese investments, including a new electric vehicle plant by carmaker Chery in Barcelona. AP News, September 9
Chinese, Russian navy, air forces to hold joint drills again in Sea of Japan. China and Russia will conduct joint military drills in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk as part of the “Northern/Interaction-2024” exercises to enhance strategic coordination and response capabilities against security threats. This includes the fifth joint naval patrol in the Pacific and participation in Russia's “Ocean-2024” strategic exercise. These drills reflect growing military cooperation between China and Russia amid rising tensions with Japan and increased regional defense activities involving the U.S. and its allies. Phoebe Zhang, South China Morning Post, September 9
Pentagon stresses security cooperation with allies after N.K. unveils new mobile launcher. The U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to regional security cooperation with allies like South Korea and Japan following North Korea's reveal of a new 12-axled mobile missile launcher, possibly intended for a new ICBM. Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder emphasized ongoing efforts to deter potential threats, highlighting the U.S. strategy of working closely with regional partners to maintain stability amid North Korea's advancing missile capabilities. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, September 9
MND allots more budget for F-16 jets, equipment. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense has allocated an additional NT$42.83 billion (US$1.33 billion) for ammunition and pods compatible with F-16 jets as part of a multi-year procurement plan. The budget spans from 2022 to 2030, supporting the purchase of 66 F-16V Block 70 jets from the U.S., along with weapons like AGM-154 glide bombs and AGM-88 missiles. The funding aims to enhance the jets' combat capacity and safeguard Taiwan's airspace. Aaron Tu and Esme Yeh, Taipei Times, September 9
Analysis & Opinion
China’s rise in Southeast Asia is bringing in a golden age for Australia.
China's growing influence in Southeast Asia is prompting countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia to strengthen ties with Australia. Concerns about Beijing's power are pushing nations to align more closely with Canberra, particularly in defense and economic cooperation. These partnerships are seen not as hedging against China but as a natural outcome of regional geopolitics. Australia is benefiting from increased investment opportunities and defense collaboration, though the long-term impact of these relationships remains uncertain. Susannah Patton, Lowy Institute, September 9
Beijing’s "one-China principle" is spreading. Beijing's "one-China principle," which asserts Taiwan as an inalienable part of China, is gaining international support, with several countries switching allegiance from Taiwan to China, including Kiribati, Honduras, and Nauru. Beijing's disinformation on UN Resolution 2758, misrepresenting it as endorsing China's sovereignty over Taiwan, is contributing to this. Despite challenges from some nations, including Australia, China continues to push this narrative successfully in global diplomacy. Benjamin Herscovitch, Lowy Institute, September 10
South China Sea: The “transparency initiative” success is plain to see.
The Philippines’ "transparency initiative" has effectively exposed China's aggressive actions in the South China Sea, despite ongoing Chinese harassment. While China continues to assert dominance through "grey zone" tactics, the Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has managed to strengthen its defense capabilities, particularly around the contested Second Thomas Shoal. The initiative has garnered international support and weakened pro-China narratives within the Philippines. However, continued support from allies like the U.S. is crucial. Richard Javad Heydarian, Lowy Institute, September 9
A “Sputnik Moment” in China’s AI Sector is Not in the Interests of the United States. The U.S. risks triggering a "Sputnik Moment" in China’s AI development by imposing export controls on AI technology, which could push China towards greater self-sufficiency and innovation. While the U.S. leads in AI, tighter restrictions could spur breakthroughs in China’s AI sector, similar to past technological advancements under sanctions. Cooperation, rather than escalating rivalry, may be more beneficial for both nations. Ao Gu, ICAS, September 9
Too early for Japan to advise China on defeating deflation. Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has offered advice to China on combating deflation, but critics find it ironic given Japan's own ongoing struggles with economic stagnation. Kuroda's comments at a Shanghai summit highlighted the risks of "Japanification," but with Japan still grappling with deflationary pressures, it's unclear if Tokyo is in a position to offer lessons. China faces economic headwinds, particularly weak consumer prices and producer price deflation. William Pesek, Asia Times, September 9
A Closed Door for Orphans? Unpacking China’s International Adoption Policy. China has halted its international adoption program, which previously helped place many orphans, especially children with special needs, in foreign homes. This decision has raised concerns, particularly for vulnerable children who may now remain in institutional care. Although the policy aligns with international adoption trends, it may have been influenced by domestic concerns about child trafficking, demographic challenges, and deteriorating relations with the West. Yanzhong Huang, Council on Foreign Relations, September 6
China Needs a Very High Consumption Share of GDP Growth. To rebalance its economy, China must greatly increase the share of consumption in GDP growth, moving it closer to global norms. Achieving this will require years of commitment from Beijing to reduce reliance on debt and investment-driven growth. Drawing parallels with Japan’s experience in the 1980s, China faces challenges in rapidly boosting consumption levels, which currently lag behind the global average. A gradual, sustained rise in consumption is essential to avoid disruptive economic adjustments. Michael Pettis, Carnegie Endowment, September 9
Taiwan must tighten the lid on China’s misinformation campaigns. Taiwan faces increasing disinformation efforts from China, particularly in the lead-up to its 2024 elections. These campaigns aim to undermine democratic institutions and sway public opinion in favor of pro-China policies. Taiwan needs stronger measures to counter these threats, including media literacy education and greater cooperation with global tech platforms. Protecting the integrity of information is critical to preserving Taiwan's democratic processes. Kao Kai-Hsin, East Asia Forum, September 7
Japan–Philippines defence deal reflects regional security dynamics. The new Japan–Philippines defense deal signals a growing partnership aimed at addressing regional security challenges, particularly in response to China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea. This agreement includes joint exercises, military training, and enhanced cooperation on maritime security. The pact also reflects broader regional trends, as both nations seek to bolster defense capabilities and collaborate with other regional allies like the United States. John Hemmings, East Asia Forum, September 9
Will the Future Be Made in Australia? Australia is positioning itself to become a leader in green technology manufacturing as part of its "Future Made in Australia" initiative. This strategy aims to boost domestic industries, such as solar panels and battery production, while reducing reliance on resource exports and foreign supply chains dominated by China. The initiative seeks to develop high-tech manufacturing capabilities and ensure economic resilience as the global energy transition accelerates. Grant Wyeth, The Diplomat, September 9
The Opportunity for South Korea-US Cooperation in AI Hardware and Energy Needs. The U.S. and South Korea have opportunities for deeper cooperation in AI hardware and clean energy. By supporting South Korea’s clean energy development, the U.S. can help power AI infrastructure while also strengthening the chip industry. This collaboration can improve technological resilience, ensuring both countries maintain leadership in AI hardware amidst the growing China-U.S. tech rivalry. Seungmin (Helen) Lee and Michelle J. Lee, The Diplomat, September 7
Could India become an alternative to China in the ‘chip war’? India is emerging as a potential alternative to China in the global semiconductor supply chain amid rising geopolitical tensions. As countries look to decouple from China's dominance, India is positioning itself as a viable hub for semiconductor manufacturing, leveraging government support and strategic partnerships. This could reshape global technology and economic dynamics in the coming years. Eri Ikeda, The Japan Times, September 9
Before the flood: Dam project leaves Cambodians with an uncertain future. The Lower Srepok 3 hydropower project, located in Cambodia's northeastern region, is part of broader efforts to harness the Mekong's tributaries for energy. However, the dam faces criticism for its environmental and social impacts, including disruption to local ecosystems and displacement of communities. The project exemplifies the challenges of balancing energy needs with sustainable development in the Mekong region. Mekong Eye, September 9
The Twilight of Electoral Competition in Indonesia. Indonesia’s electoral competition is shrinking as political parties form cartel-like alliances, undermining democracy. Recent protests against a regional election bill show public dissatisfaction with attempts to consolidate political power, particularly as President Joko Widodo's allies push for dynastic control. Lowering nomination thresholds offers hope for more diverse candidates, but the growing trend of elite agreements threatens to weaken electoral diversity. Ian Wilson, Fulcrum, September 9
Flooding and Waste Management in the Philippines: Stop Blaming the Poor.
Flooding in the Philippines is often wrongly attributed to the poor and their waste management practices. Research shows that impoverished communities are more resourceful in recycling and reusing items, but are trapped in a "sachet economy" due to economic constraints. Blaming them ignores structural issues, such as inadequate infrastructure and waste management systems. A more holistic approach is needed to address the true causes of flooding and environmental degradation. Veronica L. Gregorio, Fulcrum, September 9