Asia Daily: September 5, 2024
News
US and China commanders to discuss conflict prevention 'in next few weeks'. U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Sam Paparo will speak with a Chinese southern theater commander to prevent military misunderstandings, as confirmed by U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns. This follows recent efforts to restore communication channels after tensions peaked over the U.S. downing a Chinese balloon. Burns emphasized the importance of dialogue to avoid accidental conflicts between U.S. and Chinese forces operating closely in international waters and airspace. David Brunnstrom and Michael Martina, Reuters, September 5
Alice Guo's arrival delayed over 'procedural matters'. The return of former Bamban, Tarlac mayor Alice Guo from Indonesia was delayed due to procedural issues, according to Senator Raffy Tulfo, who is escorting her back to the Philippines. Guo was set to fly on a chartered flight, with local officials, including Local Government Secretary Benhur Abalos and PNP Chief Gen. Rommel Marbil, assisting in her return. Upon arrival, she will face further investigation by the Bureau of Immigration and National Bureau of Investigation, and be held in Senate custody. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, September 5
Cambodia’s leader says arrested protesters were trying to overthrow the government. Prime Minister Hun Manet defended the arrests of nearly 100 protesters, accusing them of plotting to overthrow his government amid demonstrations against a regional development agreement with Laos and Vietnam. Rights groups criticized the crackdown as unlawful, noting that 59 detainees, including activists and children, remain jailed. Hun Manet alleged protesters planned violence, including arson, to destabilize the country. The agreement has sparked concerns over land concessions and sovereignty issues, particularly with Vietnam. Sopheng Chang, AP News, September 5
Vietnam, ASEAN member states foster military cooperation. Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Tan Cuong, Chief of the General Staff of the Vietnam People's Army, held bilateral meetings with defense chiefs from the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore on the sidelines of the 21st ASEAN Chiefs of Defence Forces’ Meeting in Vientiane. Discussions covered enhancing military cooperation, sharing experiences in non-traditional security challenges, and inviting military leaders to upcoming events in Vietnam, including the 80th founding anniversary of the Vietnam People’s Army. Vietnam News, September 5
‘Arctic ambition’: 3 Chinese icebreakers forge polar presence and unity with Russia. China has sent three icebreakers to the Arctic for the first time, signaling increased cooperation with Russia against NATO's Arctic presence. The ships, including the Xue Long 2, are involved in commercial, scientific, and military activities, highlighting China's strategic ambitions in the polar region. This move aligns with China's 2018 Arctic policy and recent agreements with Russia to develop shipping routes and technology in the Arctic. Seong Hyeon Choi, South China Morning Post, September 5
China offers Africa $51 billion in fresh funding, promises a million jobs. President Xi Jinping pledged nearly $51 billion in financial support to Africa over three years, focusing on infrastructure, industrial, and agricultural cooperation. The funding includes $29.6 billion in credit lines, $9.9 billion in fresh investments by Chinese companies, and additional amounts for military and other projects. Delegates at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit in Beijing adopted the Beijing Declaration and Action Plan, aiming to strengthen ties and address Africa's development needs. Laurie Chen and Joe Cash, Reuters, September 5
PM promises policy continuity, but handout will change. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra stated that her upcoming policy statement will largely follow her predecessor Srettha Thavisin's agenda, with adjustments to the digital wallet handout programme. Changes may include providing cash instead of digital money to some recipients. She also aims to continue existing investment and international trade policies, while considering proposals from coalition parties. Paetongtarn addressed criticism of her new cabinet, urging the public to give her administration a fair chance. Bangkok Post, September 5
Cambodia strengthens agricultural sector through EU and German support. Cambodia launched a new project under the EU CAPSAFE initiative on September 5, aiming to boost its cashew nut and pepper industries through sustainability, competitiveness, and inclusiveness. Funded with $27 million from the EU and Germany, the five-year project will enhance value addition, food safety, and climate resilience in agriculture. The initiative targets four provinces and aligns with the Team Europe Initiative, focusing on green technologies and responsible investment. Hong Raksmey, The Phnom Penh Post, September 5
Myanmar junta boss targeted in artillery attack while visiting Karenni capital. Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's junta leader, was targeted by the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF) during his visit to Loikaw, the capital of Karenni State. The group shelled two locations, the Loikaw Regional Operations Command and the Loikaw State Hall, but Min Aung Hlaing and his entourage escaped unharmed and left the area. The KNDF’s artillery attacks were in response to Min Aung Hlaing’s inspection of military operations in the region. The Irrawaddy, September 5
Former transport minister S Iswaran's trial moved back 2 weeks to Sep 24. The trial of former transport minister S Iswaran, originally scheduled for September 10, has been postponed to September 24 after a joint request from both the prosecution and defense. The Attorney-General's Chambers confirmed the delay, while Iswaran faces 35 charges including corruption and obstruction of justice related to his interactions with business figures. The Court of Appeal recently dismissed his bid to obtain all witness statements from the prosecution. Lydia Lam, Channel News Asia, September 5
Japan and Australia agree to increase joint military training. Japan and Australia have agreed to expand joint military exercises amid shared concerns over Chinese incursions into Japanese airspace and waters. Foreign and defense ministers from both nations met in Queenscliff, Australia, and committed to enhancing security cooperation, including more air force training and Australia's participation in Japan's Orient Shield exercises. The move follows recent incidents involving Chinese military activities near Japan, prompting formal protests from Tokyo. Rod McGuirk, AP News, September 5
Uzbekistan making progress on green-energy power plan. Uzbekistan is advancing its green-energy strategy with the completion of a 150 MW/300 MWh battery energy storage system (BESS) in the Ferghana Region, set to begin operations in December. Built at a cost of $140 million, the facility is expected to generate 2.2 billion kWh of electricity annually, stabilizing power supplies for around 900,000 households. The project, supported by Chinese firms under the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, is a key component of Uzbekistan's plan to transition to a green economy. Eurasianet, September 5
China’s economic coercion evokes greater scrutiny and resentment, senior US officials say. U.S. officials criticized China for its economic and geopolitical coercion, highlighting actions against the Philippines and economic pressure on other countries. Ambassador Nicholas Burns and State Department official Jose Fernandez discussed efforts to counter Beijing's tactics, which include trade restrictions and leveraging influence. Burns emphasized U.S. commitment to defending allies, while Fernandez noted that China’s coercive approach is creating global resentment but remains effective. Robert Delaney and Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, September 5
Japan dismisses idea to get nuclear subs floated by LDP chief hopeful. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi rejected the idea of Japan acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, proposed by LDP leadership candidate Taro Kono, citing legal and constitutional restrictions on nuclear power. Kono, emphasizing security concerns from China's actions, suggested Japan debate joining AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership with the U.S. and Britain, to counter threats in the East China Sea. Japan remains committed to its pacifist principles and non-nuclear stance. Kyodo News, September 5
Analysis & Opinion
Teaching about Sustainable Development Goals, Japan has a chance to learn about itself. Japan integrates Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into English as a Foreign Language courses, promoting critical thinking and global awareness. These courses address Japan's low English proficiency, aiming to improve communication skills vital for international competitiveness. However, Japan faces challenges, including reliance on rote learning and reluctance to discuss domestic issues like gender inequality. By moving towards student-centered learning and addressing its societal weaknesses, Japan could better promote SDGs nationally and globally. Marin Ekstrom, Lowy Institute, September 5
Tonga and His Majesty’s Armed Forces: A military made for peace. Tonga's military, His Majesty's Armed Forces (HMAF), was not built for aggression but for peacekeeping and diplomacy. It began in the 19th century under King Tāufaʻāhau I to protect the nation's sovereignty through Western-style governance rather than military force. Today, HMAF focuses on humanitarian missions, disaster relief, and peacekeeping, rather than defense or offensive capabilities. There is growing discussion about whether Tonga could join the ranks of non-militarized nations. Sheridan Ward, Lowy Institute, September 6
Korea’s Healthcare System Part III: Ensuring Equitable Access to Healthcare for All Households. South Korea's healthcare system faces challenges due to high out-of-pocket payments, which account for 29% of healthcare expenditures, among the highest in the OECD. This burden disproportionately affects low-income and elderly households, limiting their access to essential healthcare. To address this, the government has expanded National Health Insurance coverage and implemented financial assistance programs, but further reforms are needed to ensure equitable access for all households. Randall S. Jones, Korea Economic Institute of America, September 4
Emulate South Korea’s policy on food waste, for a start. South Korea has successfully tackled food waste through a robust recycling and composting program. By banning food scraps from landfills, 98% of the country's food waste is now converted into animal feed, compost, or energy. Despite this, the total amount of food waste remains unchanged, showing that recycling efforts alone may not reduce waste levels. Other nations could learn from South Korea’s policy but their are limitations in replicating it elsewhere. Urban C. Lehner, Asia Times, September 5
Can the Taiwan People’s Party Survive? The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) faces an existential crisis due to mounting corruption scandals involving its leader, Ko Wen-je, and other party members. Despite holding eight legislative seats and significant influence, the party’s support has sharply declined. Ko’s non-ideological stance, which attracted young voters, is being undermined by these scandals, casting doubt on the party's future viability in Taiwan’s political landscape. David Sacks, Council on Foreign Relations, September 5
Nobody’s Backyard: A Confident Central Asia. Central Asian nations have emerged as assertive actors in the global arena, managing diplomatic relationships independently amidst geopolitical shifts caused by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and Russia’s war in Ukraine. These nations are engaging diplomatically with powers like China, Russia, and the Taliban while reasserting their sovereignty. Central Asia's internal vulnerabilities, such as rising nationalism and public demand for accountability, present the region's most significant challenges to long-term stability. Jennifer B. Murtazashvili & Temur Umarov, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 5
Nepal-India Relations Under New Governments: Time for a Refresh?
Nepal and India, under newly elected governments, have a chance to strengthen their bilateral ties. Key areas of focus include expanding cooperation in hydropower, addressing territorial disputes, and resolving policy issues such as the recruitment of Nepali Gorkha soldiers. Both countries must deal with geopolitical challenges and domestic instabilities to fully realize the potential of their relationship, especially in sectors like energy and tourism. Gaurab Shumsher Thapa, South Asian Voices, September 4
Fiji’s HIV surge stems from a funding shortfall. Fiji has seen a 260% increase in HIV cases since 2010, exacerbated by the decline in funding for prevention and awareness programs following the end of the Regional Response Fund in 2013. Rising illegal drug use and unsafe practices contribute to the surge, but insufficient financial support has left the country unprepared to address the crisis. Although new funding has been secured, more resources are required to effectively combat the epidemic. Sharon McLennan, Avelina Rokoduru & Akisi Ravono, East Asia Forum, September 6
China–Philippines trust in troubled waters. Tensions between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea remain high despite a July 2024 agreement to allow resupply missions to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. Escalating legal and military actions, such as China’s new maritime regulations and Manila’s military modernization efforts, reflect deep-seated mistrust. This ongoing friction, coupled with unresolved territorial disputes, suggests that tensions will likely continue to worsen. Abdul Rahman Yaacob, East Asia Forum, September 5
Thailand’s establishment strikes another blow against democracy.
On August 7, 2024, Thailand's Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party (MFP) over its attempts to amend the lese majeste law, banning its executives from politics for ten years. A week later, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was dismissed, marking the return of autocratic politics. These developments signal a retreat from the brief hopes for democratization following the 2023 elections, as the royalist-military establishment reasserts control. Aim Sinpeng, East Asia Forum, September 5
The Global Battle for Chip Talent: South Korea’s Strategic Dilemma.
South Korea faces a number of challenges in retaining its semiconductor talent as global powers, including the U.S., China, and Japan, aggressively compete for skilled engineers to dominate the chip industry. While South Korean engineers are critical to advanced manufacturing, domestic labor shortages and foreign incentives threaten the country’s leadership. South Korea must address workforce issues and explore strategies, such as attracting foreign talent, to maintain its competitive edge. Rajiv Kumar, The Diplomat, September 5
How Did Japan’s Conservatives Fall in Love With Dovish Economic Policy?
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has increasingly embraced dovish economic policies, driven by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Abenomics, which emphasized monetary easing and fiscal flexibility. This aimed to combat deflation and stimulate growth. Despite ongoing debates between fiscal hawks and doves, the legacy of Abenomics continues to influence conservative economic thinking, with proponents advocating for continued public spending and low interest rates. Jio Kamata, The Diplomat, September 5
Laos' Connectivity Drive Paves the Way for ASEAN’s Integration. As ASEAN Chair in 2024, Laos has prioritized improving physical and digital infrastructure to promote regional integration. Key projects include the Laos-China Railway, cross-border train services with Thailand, and digital QR payment systems across ASEAN. Laos aims to transition from a land-locked to a land-linked country, enhancing trade and energy exports. However, the country faces challenges, including heavy reliance on Chinese financing and infrastructure investment. Melinda Martinus & Joanne Lin, Fulcrum, September 5
Malaysia’s BRICS Bid: Not Aligning Away from Non-Alignment.
Malaysia’s application to join BRICS reflects its desire to diversify partnerships without abandoning its long-standing non-alignment policy. While the move is seen as aligning with China and Russia, Malaysia continues to engage with Western-led initiatives and maintain military ties with the U.S. This strategy is driven by domestic discontent with U.S. foreign policies and aims to strengthen Malaysia’s international influence while preserving its geopolitical flexibility. Xu Jingzhi, Fulcrum, September 5
India Overtakes China in Economic Growth: A Shift Anticipated and Amplified by Stock Markets. India has surpassed China in economic growth, driven by a combination of robust domestic consumption, technological advancements, and a youthful demographic. The divergence in growth is reflected in stock market trends, where India’s Bombay Stock Exchange has consistently outperformed China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange. This economic rivalry, coupled with their contrasting governance models—India's democracy and China's authoritarianism—has great geopolitical implications, influencing global investor sentiment and shaping future regional dynamics.
Sam Rainsy, The Geopolitics, September 5