Asia Daily: September 4, 2024
News
New York governor calls for China’s consul general expulsion after aide charged. Governor Kathy Hochul called for the expulsion of China’s consul general in New York, Huang Ping, after her former aide, Linda Sun, was charged as an agent for Beijing. The State Department clarified that Huang's departure was due to a scheduled rotation, not expulsion. Sun and her husband were accused of working with Chinese officials to influence U.S. politics and minimize contact with Taiwanese officials. Robert Delaney, Igor Patrick, and Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, September 4
S. Korea, U.S. not ruling out possibility of major N. Korean provocations near U.S. election. South Korea and the U.S. are preparing for potential provocations from North Korea, such as nuclear tests or ICBM launches, around the U.S. presidential election in November. During the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group meeting in Washington, officials discussed strategic responses and reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to defending South Korea. The U.S. reiterated its willingness to engage in dialogue with North Korea for denuclearization, while warning that any nuclear attack would result in the end of the North Korean regime. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, September 4
Taiwan monitoring Chinese landing drills in province facing island. Taiwan's defense ministry reported observing Chinese landing drills involving aircraft, helicopters, and amphibious ships near Dacheng Bay in Fujian province, opposite Taiwan. The exercises, which include joint landing maneuvers with ground troops, are part of China’s increased military pressure on Taiwan, though Taiwan’s defense ministry states China lacks the capacity for a full invasion. Taiwan continues to closely monitor the situation as it maintains its stance against China’s claims over the island. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, September 4
King endorses new cabinet. Thailand's King approved the new 35-member cabinet proposed by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The cabinet includes key figures such as Phumtham Wechayachai as Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister, Suriya Juangroongruangkit as Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister, and Anutin Charnvirakul as Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister. The cabinet positions are shared between Pheu Thai Party members and coalition partners. The ministers will be sworn in on Friday, with a policy statement to Parliament on September 16. Bangkok Post, September 4
Japan, Australia look to cooperate on long-range missile capability. Japan and Australia have agreed to enhance cooperation on long-range missile capabilities in response to China's expanding military activities in the Indo-Pacific. Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and his Australian counterpart Richard Marles discussed collaboration on missile testing and Japan's potential participation in Australia's new warship development. The two nations aim to improve counterstrike and long-range capabilities amid shared regional security concerns. Kyodo News, September 4
US envoy to Taiwan declares ties ‘rock solid’ amid military threats from China. Raymond F. Greene, the top U.S. envoy to Taiwan, reaffirmed strong American support for the island, emphasizing continued commitments to Taiwan's defense under the Taiwan Relations Act. His remarks come amid rising tensions with China, which claims Taiwan as its territory. Greene highlighted substantial U.S. military sales and transfers to Taiwan, including F-16 jets and Abrams tanks, underscoring the U.S. resolve to maintain peace and security in the Taiwan Strait. Christopher Bodeen, AP News, September 4
S. Korea, New Zealand agree to boost security cooperation. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon committed to enhancing security ties, condemning North Korea's growing military collaboration with Russia. They discussed expanding trade, investment, and technology cooperation, and pledged to upgrade their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership. The leaders also expressed concerns over regional tensions, including developments in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, September 4
North Korea has again launched suspected trash-carrying balloons across the border, South Korea says. South Korea detected balloons likely sent from North Korea carrying waste such as paper and cigarette butts, part of ongoing psychological warfare between the countries. Seoul issued alerts advising residents to avoid contact with the balloons. The activity is seen as retaliation against South Korean activists who send anti-North Korean leaflets across the border, escalating tensions amid growing nuclear threats and military drills between South Korea and the U.S. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, September 4
US expected to send senior Pentagon official to China military forum. The U.S. plans to send Michael Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, to the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing from September 12-14, marking a significant engagement amid heightened tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea. This move follows January's military talks in Washington, the first since 2022, indicating a cautious approach to re-engaging with China on security matters. Idrees Ali and Laurie Chen, Reuters, September 4
Malaysia to investigate leak of Chinese diplomatic note over South China Sea row. Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry has called for a police investigation into the leak of a diplomatic note from China, which allegedly demanded Malaysia halt activities in a disputed maritime area near Sarawak. The note, published by the Philippine Daily Inquirer, highlighted China's claims over the South China Sea under its 10-dash line map. Malaysia's government, which rarely criticizes China publicly due to economic ties, expressed concern over the breach of classified information. AP News, September 4
Vietnam, Singapore convene 16th political consultation. Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Do Hung Viet and Singapore’s Permanent Secretary Albert Chua co-chaired the 16th political consultation in Singapore, focusing on enhancing their strategic partnership. Discussions highlighted robust cooperation in economic ties, defense, education, and green energy. They affirmed commitments to deepen collaboration on digital transformation, sustainable development, and ASEAN's regional stability. Vietnam News, September 4
Marcos vows swift resolution of Alice Guo case. President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr. assured the public that the legal proceedings for former Bamban mayor Alice Guo will be conducted promptly and fairly. Guo, who fled the Philippines amid allegations of establishing an illegal online gaming center, was arrested in Indonesia with the cooperation of Filipino authorities. Marcos emphasized that Guo’s case would serve as a warning against evading justice and stressed the importance of upholding the rule of law. Guo faces charges related to illegal gambling, evasion, and possibly fraud. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, September 4
Indonesia arrests a fugitive former Filipino town mayor wanted for illegal online gaming scams. Alice Guo, a dismissed Filipino mayor accused of running an illegal online gambling hub catering to Chinese clients, was arrested near Jakarta, Indonesia. The arrest, coordinated between Indonesian and Filipino police, came after Guo fled the Philippines in July. She faces deportation to the Philippines to face charges of illegal gambling, misconduct, and accusations of concealing her Chinese nationality to hold public office. Jim Gomez and Edna Tarigan, AP News, September 4
October referendum will decide future of nuclear energy in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan will hold a referendum on October 6 to decide on building a nuclear power plant to meet rising electricity demand. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev supports nuclear energy as reliable and eco-friendly, positioning the vote as part of a broader national dialogue. However, there are concerns about environmental impacts and Kazakhstan's nuclear legacy. Polls suggest majority support for the plant, with proposals from Russia, China, France, and South Korea under consideration. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, September 4
ree on major financing, trade deals at FOCAC summit in Beijing. At the 9th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, China and African leaders secured deals on infrastructure financing, green energy, and trade. Kenya received funds for road construction and restarted railway extension talks. Tanzania and Zambia agreed to a US$1 billion railway refurbishment. China also committed to importing more African agricultural products and investing in critical mineral development. Leaders emphasized cooperation on digital economy, energy, and industrial upgrades. Jevans Nyabiage, South China Morning Post, September 4
Pacific Forum Leaders urge targeted assistance to support Smaller Island States priorities. Pacific Forum leaders called for targeted support to address the unique challenges of Smaller Island States (SIS) during a meeting in Tonga. They emphasized the need for assistance in areas like climate resilience, transportation, and education, urging regional and international partners to align resources with the SIS priorities. The leaders highlighted the importance of the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent and stressed elevating SIS needs within the broader Pacific regional framework. PINA, September 4
Analysis & Opinion
Can the US and China Avoid a Catastrophic Clash? The recent visit by U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to Beijing highlighted efforts to manage US-China tensions amid increasing strategic rivalry. The discussions with Chinese officials, including General Zhang Youxia, showed mutual recognition of the catastrophic risks of potential conflict, particularly over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Both nations remain committed to preventing escalation, though fundamental disagreements and a competitive stance persist, suggesting ongoing friction in bilateral relations. Daniel R. DePetris, Lowy Institute, September 4
The LDP Leadership Race: The Early Birds. The upcoming leadership race for Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is set to choose a new president on September 27, with the winner likely becoming the next prime minister. Key contenders, including Kobayashi Takayuki, Ishiba Shigeru, and Kono Taro, have announced their candidacies amid declining support for the LDP and a call for fresh leadership. This election is crucial for the LDP's strategy to regain public trust and maintain power in the upcoming general election. Sheila A. Smith, Council on Foreign Relations, September 3
Kishida Calls It Quits. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he would not seek re-election as the Liberal Democratic Party's leader, following low approval ratings and scandals involving financial misappropriation. Kishida's resignation comes after a series of electoral defeats and rising internal dissent within the party. The LDP now faces challenges in regaining public trust and preparing for upcoming elections. Several potential successors are emerging, including both veteran politicians and younger leaders. Purnendra Jain, East Asia Forum, September 4
Roadblocks to Gender Equality Remain in Indonesian Schools. Despite national reforms aimed at promoting gender equality, Indonesia faces persistent challenges in achieving educational parity. Regional disparities, conservative norms, and legal autonomy at the local level hinder progress. Girls outperform boys in literacy at the national level, but in more conservative and remote regions, patriarchal views and local governance continue to disadvantage female students. Targeted reforms, community engagement, and stronger regulation of regional laws are needed to address these deep-rooted issues. Georgina Giannopoulos, East Asia Forum, September 4
Two-Way Exchanges Are Crucial for Deepening ASEAN–Japan Relations. Strengthening ASEAN-Japan relations requires increased reciprocity and cultural exchange. While Japan has successfully spread its cultural influence in Southeast Asia through development aid and soft power, ASEAN countries need to enhance their presence in Japan by promoting their businesses, culture, and educational exchanges. Both regions could benefit from policies that encourage mutual understanding and integration, fostering a more balanced and equal partnership. Angeline Tan and Maria Monica Wihardja, East Asia Forum, September 4
Bangladesh’s New Border Stance Signals a Shift in Its Approach to India. Bangladesh's government has adopted a firmer stance on its border with India, reflecting a shift in policy after the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) is now taking a more assertive approach in border management, signaling potential tension between the two nations. Recent incidents, including confrontations over fence construction and water management issues, show the growing strain in Bangladesh-India relations. Saqlain Rizve, The Diplomat, September 4
The Rise and Coming Fall of Chinese Manufacturing. China’s manufacturing sector faces challenges similar to Japan's past, with overcapacity, shifting production to other countries like Vietnam and Mexico, and a potential decline due to economic pressures. The global market dynamics and U.S. tariffs are pushing some Chinese firms to relocate parts of their production, foreshadowing potential shifts in global manufacturing trends. Yi Fuxian, The Japan Times, September 4
In Kazakhstan, Even Public Petitions Are Top-Down. Kazakhstan's new online petition platform appears to give citizens a voice, but in practice, it often rubber-stamps decisions already made by the government. Some petitions, such as those banning "LGBT propaganda" or gambling by officials, are allegedly pushed by authorities to demonstrate public support for controversial policies. Critics argue the system gives a false sense of public participation, while effectively curbing genuine grassroots initiatives. Dmitriy Mazorenko and Olga Loginova, Vlast, September 4
Kamala Harris and ASEAN: Values and Climate Agenda Will Complicate Trade Ties. If Kamala Harris becomes the next U.S. president, her progressive stance on trade—focused on human rights, climate change, and labor standards—may clash with ASEAN's priorities. While Harris seeks to align trade with U.S. values, ASEAN nations prefer a balanced approach amid the U.S.-China rivalry. The lack of market access incentives from the U.S. could further strain trade relations. Stephen Olson, Fulcrum, September 4.
China’s Education Outreach in Malaysia: Need for Tact and Trust. China's growing influence in Malaysia's education sector is seen through initiatives like Xiamen University's Malaysian campus and increased student exchanges. However, concerns over cultural sensitivity and potential socio-economic disparities have arisen. For China's outreach to be effective, it must promote trust, adopt a multilingual approach, and ensure that its programs benefit all communities equitably. Peter T. C. Chang, Fulcrum, September 4