China

Premier Li Qiang touts China’s global vision at UN, slams U.S. isolationism. Chinese Premier Li Qiang urged the UN to embrace multilateralism, warned against unilateralism and protectionist tariffs, and called for reforms elevating Global South participation. He voiced support for the Paris Agreement, offered moon dust, pledged US$10 million for a Global South facility, and backed a sustainable development centre in Shanghai, while tensions with Washington have recently eased. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, September 26

China hoping for economic boost from 2.4 billion ‘golden week’ journeys. Transport authorities project 2.4 billion trips over the eight-day National Day “golden week,” averaging 295 million daily, up 3.2% year on year. About 1.87 billion will drive, aided by toll-free highways for small cars; the peak could reach 340 million trips Wednesday. Bookings surged—car rentals +93%, 10.2 million domestic flights—as officials bet travel demand will lift a slowing consumer economy. Alcott Wei, South China Morning Post, September 28

Japan

‘Fake posts’ rock Koizumi campaign, LDP leadership race. Farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s leadership bid reeled after revelations that campaign emails circulated suggested praise for him and digs at rival Sanae Takaichi, prompting senior aide Karen Makishima’s resignation amid security threats. Party officials weighed possible rule violations as the Oct. 4 vote neared and momentum shifted. Shinkai Kawabe, Nobuhiko Tajima and Mika Kuniyoshi, The Asahi Shimbun, September 27

Takaichi tops Kyodo poll of LDP supporters as best to lead ruling party. A Kyodo survey of Liberal Democratic Party supporters places Sanae Takaichi first with 34.4%, ahead of Shinjiro Koizumi at 29.3% and Yoshimasa Hayashi at 19.5%, with Toshimitsu Motegi at 5.2% and Takayuki Kobayashi at 3.8%. A runoff is likely. Lawmaker backing: 80+ for Koizumi, ~60 Hayashi, ~40 Takaichi, ~30 each Kobayashi and Motegi; votes split 295 Diet and 295 rank-and-file. Kyodo News, September 28.

South Korea

South Korea cannot pay $350 billion to U.S. for tariff deal as Trump suggests, top aide says. South Korea cannot provide $350 billion in cash upfront for a tariff agreement, National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac said, citing economic constraints. Seoul says the commitment would be structured through loans, guarantees and equity for U.S. projects. Negotiations are deadlocked over control of funds as alternatives are discussed before next month’s APEC summit in South Korea. Jack Kim, Reuters, September 27

South Korea begins new trial of ousted President Yoon over failed martial law. South Korea’s ousted president Yoon Suk Yeol denied fresh counts, including obstruction and abuse of power, as a new case opened following weeks of boycotting a separate proceeding over an alleged insurrection tied to a failed martial-law bid. Defense lawyers sought bail, argued investigators exceeded authority, and cited health issues; a conviction could add three-plus years, while insurrection charges carry life or death. Jack Kim, Reuters, September 26

North Korea

North Korea’s foreign minister had talks with China, KCNA says. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing and conveyed Kim Jong Un’s message that relations are steadfast and should advance with shifting conditions. Both sides agreed to deepen strategic communication and cooperation. The meeting followed a Kim–Xi summit in early September and preceded the Oct. 31–Nov. 1 APEC in South Korea. Heejin Kim, Reuters, September 28

North Korea’s Kim calls for sharpening nuclear ‘shield and sword’. Kim Jong Un ordered resources concentrated on the nuclear program, calling for continually renewing a “shield and sword” to secure sovereignty and development, according to state media. He met nuclear officials and scientists on Friday and labeled strengthening the nuclear response posture the country’s top priority. Jack Kim, Reuters, September 26

Thailand

Thailand to seek referendum on Cambodia border demarcation. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said the government will ask voters whether to revoke a 2000 land-boundary framework and a 2001 maritime cooperation pact with Cambodia, after a five-day border conflict in July killed at least 48 people and displaced hundreds of thousands before a Malaysia-brokered ceasefire on the 28th. Panarat Thepgumpanat and Panu Wongcha-um, Reuters, September 26

Most people undecided on PM choice while favouring People’s Party: poll. A Nida nationwide phone survey of 2,500 people conducted Sept. 19–24 found 27.28% uncommitted on a preferred prime minister, with People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut at 22.80% and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul at 20.44%. Party support ranked People’s Party 33.08%, undecided 21.64%, Pheu Thai 13.96%, and Bhumjaithai 13.24%. Bangkok Post, September 28

Vietnam

Vietnam, Russia agree to boost parliamentary and economic cooperation. Talks in Hanoi between National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man and Russian State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin advanced a 75-year partnership with plans to deepen trade, investment, and energy ties, implement the EAEU FTA, explore nuclear power cooperation, and expand education and cultural exchanges. Vietnam News, September 28

Myanmar

Junta suddenly restricts Myanmar migrants’ passports to ‘Thailand only’. Myanmar’s military began stamping newly issued and renewed Passports for Job with “Thailand Only,” preventing onward travel beyond Thailand, according to visa agencies and migrants; some Passports for Visit received similar restrictions. The change came without notice, the embassy was unreachable, and a Mahachai passport office staffer said renewals will receive the same stamp. Myo Pyae, The Irrawaddy, September 26

Cambodia

Cambodia condemns Thai aggression, calling for ASEAN probe into ceasefire infringements. Cambodia’s defense ministry accused Thai troops of two rounds of fire on positions in Preah Vihear on Saturday, reporting structural damage while saying its forces withheld return fire. Thailand’s army countered that Cambodian units used small arms and grenades against Thai sites with no casualties. Khmer Times, September 28

Cambodia and Thailand clash at UN. Cambodia’s foreign minister Prak Sokhonn told the UN that Thailand threatens hard-won peace through border violations and forced evictions, urging adherence to the ceasefire and international support. Thai foreign minister Sihasak Puangketkeow rejected the claims, alleging Cambodian provocations and drone incursions. Taing Rinith, Khmer Times, September 28

Philippines

Philippine and Indonesian navies enhance cooperation in PHILINDO exercise. A Philippine Navy contingent aboard BRP Artemio Ricarte (PS-37) sailed for Philindo 2025 in Bitung, Indonesia, running Sept. 28–Oct. 4, the fourth iteration aimed at interoperability through at-sea drills and expert exchanges. Training will cover navigation, operations, and tactics. A recent Malaysia exercise saw BRP Antonio Luna incur superficial freeboard damage yet complete all events. Izel Abanilla, The Manila Times, September 28

Palace slams Duterte’s lawyers for allegedly ‘twisted facts’ on case. Malacañang accused former president Rodrigo Duterte’s counsel Nicholas Kaufman of distorting its stance on his interim release bid, saying remarks by Palace Press Officer Claire Castro were misrepresented. The administration insists it is not involved in the ICC case and will respect any ruling. Duterte faces three crimes-against-humanity counts and has been detained since March after extradition. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, September 27

Malaysia

Malaysia asks U.S. for zero tariff rate on furniture, automotive and aerospace parts. Malaysia requested zero tariffs on furniture, auto components and aerospace products, and said Washington may grant exemptions for goods not made in the U.S., including cocoa and palm oil, with a decision due next month. The push follows a 19% levy imposed in August and new U.S. duties on cabinets and upholstered furniture, as Kuala Lumpur targets a deal before October. Rozanna Latiff, Reuters, September 26

Nepal

Live ammunition used against Nepal anti-graft protesters, forensics show. Postmortems at Tribhuvan University’s Institute of Medicine found at least 33 demonstrators were killed by live rounds from high-velocity firearms during September protests that left 74 dead and over 2,000 injured; only one victim was struck by a rubber bullet. Former PM K.P. Sharma Oli denied ordering lethal fire. An interim government panel is investigating. Sahana Bajracharya, Aftab Ahmed, Reuters, September 26

Bangladesh

Bangladesh calls for urgent action to prevent ‘catastrophic’ Rohingya aid crisis. Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus told the U.N. that dwindling funding risks a collapse of support for roughly 1.3 million Rohingya in Cox’s Bazar, warning rations could fall to $6 per person. He urged wider international responsibility, pressed Myanmar’s warring sides for change, and said a Sept. 30 conference should mobilize new commitments. Ruma Paul, Reuters, September 26

Kazakhstan

Chinese investors build new agriculture plants in Kazakhstan. Chinese firms started two projects in Zhambyl: FM World Agricultural Machinery opened an assembly site in Taraz targeting up to 2,000 units annually, while Zhongkai Guoyuan launched a $200 million sugar plant to process 1 million tons of beets for 80,000–130,000 tons of sugar; an irrigation-systems factory is planned. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, September 26

Kazakhstan names new foreign minister. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev appointed Yermek Kosherbayev as foreign minister, replacing Murat Nurtleu amid a broader reshuffle. Kosherbayev had served as deputy prime minister since February. Nurtleu became assistant to the president for international investment and trade cooperation. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, September 26

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan, United States sign nuclear cooperation memorandum. Uzbekistan’s deputy foreign minister Muzaffarbek Madrakhimov and U.S. official Brent Christensen signed a memorandum to expand cooperation in nuclear energy, with Washington emphasizing support for the global competitiveness of its industry. The agreement foresees broader engagement among experts and firms and follows Uzbekistan’s move to join the Vienna nuclear liability convention. Gazeta, September 26

East Asia

The rules of engagement in East Asian waters have changed. Recent Chinese carrier operations in Japan’s EEZ, massed forces at Scarborough Shoal, and coercive actions at Second Thomas Shoal and around Taiwan’s Kinmen islands signal a coordinated gray-zone campaign that blends maritime pressure with psychological, media, and legal warfare. Water cannon strikes, ramming, and “law enforcement” patrols normalize incremental control while testing alliance seams and bureaucratic lag in Tokyo, Manila, and Taipei. By establishing administrative facts and reframing incidents as routine, Beijing lowers response thresholds without crossing into open conflict. Effective countermeasures require synchronized legal strategies, unified narratives, intelligence sharing, and resilient rules of engagement across partners, not isolated national moves, to prevent precedent-setting normalization. Athena Tong, Nikkei Asia, September 28

The Malice Police. China’s cyberspace regulator launched a two-month “Clear and Clean” drive against the “malicious incitement of negative emotions,” targeting content from “group antagonism” to amplified pessimism across major platforms. The move fits a governance model of rolling “special actions” that grant officials wide discretion, cultivate caution among journalists and platforms, and normalize discretionary enforcement. Analysis traces this fear-based approach to post-1989 controls and argues the cadence of short, sweeping crackdowns is self-perpetuating rather than corrective, with a running calendar of campaigns across 2024–2025. David Bandurski, China Media Project, September 26

How China’s Shandong is fighting involution to win back its youth. Shandong remains a manufacturing and marine-economy powerhouse with GDP above 9 trillion RMB, yet growth slowed to 5.7% in 2024 and 4.259 million people left in 2020. National youth unemployment hit 16.9% in early 2025, reinforcing “involution” and “lying flat.” Policies prioritize training, advancement, responsibility, and lower living costs through housing, childcare, and transit near industrial parks. Incentives link to R&D and exports, require publishing promotion rates and salaries, and fund incubators; a Youth Innovation Voucher grants up to 500,000 RMB alongside 100-billion-RMB parks in Jinan and the Yellow River belt. Caoxian returnees scale Hanfu brands via e-commerce and add payroll jobs, illustrating county-level ladders locally. Yan Song, ThinkChina, September 26

What Awaits Japan’s Next Prime Minister. The next Liberal Democratic Party leader inherits alliance uncertainty under a second Trump administration, a tariff deal that trades broad 15% rates for roughly $550 billion in U.S.-directed investments, and persistent domestic pressures from inflation, weak growth, and demographic decline. Security risks include Chinese military displays and gray-zone activity, while economic headwinds include a weak yen and global demand softness. LDP losses in both chambers, leadership fractures after Ishiba Shigeru’s resignation, and electoral dynamics between “full spec” and abbreviated party contests shape the field, with Takaichi Sanae and Koizumi Shinjiro prominent. Any hawkish turn could strain ties with China and South Korea, and reformist credibility will hinge on articulating a coherent growth strategy beyond handouts. Kenji Kushida, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 26

China’s Investments are Unignorable for the UK Economy – And So Are the Risks. Britain reopens economic engagement as Business Secretary Peter Kyle revives JETCO talks, the first since 2018, and signals Labour’s intent to treat China as “unignorable.” Negotiators floated easing trade barriers over five years, while ministers balance opportunity with exposure to opaque practices. Recent turmoil at Jingye’s Scunthorpe steelworks underscores partner risk. Despite high-profile stakes in Heathrow, power grids, and a Somerset nuclear project, Chinese FDI stock remains small at £3.7 billion (0.2%) and UK outward stock in China at £8.9 billion (0.5%). A proposed London “mega-embassy” near major financial nodes has raised espionage concerns, adding political friction to commercial outreach. Karel Pučelík, China Observers, September 29

Southeast Asia

Laos harvests development progress through the tourism–agriculture nexus. Laos can leverage the Laos–China Railway’s connectivity to link farms with tourist demand, boost local income, retain foreign exchange, and diversify beyond resource extraction. Tourist arrivals reached 4.1 million in 2024 and 1.2 million in 2025 Q1, with Thailand, Vietnam, and China the top sources. Food and beverage outlays take roughly a quarter of travel budgets, creating scope for import substitution if quality, logistics, and assurance systems improve. Weak farm–hospitality linkages, reliance on imported food, limited local business capacity, and skills gaps constrain gains. Targeted vocational training, stronger product standards, branding, and community-based models such as Cofarm Laos can widen benefits while safeguarding nature and culture, supporting fiscal health and graduation from LDC status in 2026. Toshiro Nishizawa, East Asia Forum, September 27

From Defensive to Dynamic: Vietnam’s Thirty-Year Journey in ASEAN. Vietnam’s 1995 accession ended isolation, embedded a Southeast Asian identity, and opened pathways to multilateral trade. ASEAN forums and AFTA built capacity that enabled WTO entry in 2007 and a surge to US$476.4 billion GDP in 2024, 12% of ASEAN output, with 165% trade openness. Early engagement prioritized sovereignty, consensus, and CLMV solidarity, codified in the 1998 Hanoi Declaration and safeguards on Troika and TAC mechanisms. Since the 2010s, Hanoi pivoted maritime, internationalized disputes, hosted ADMM-Plus, added the U.S. and Russia to the EAS, and foregrounded UNCLOS in 2020. Consensus limits persist. Vietnam “leads from the middle,” pairing ASEAN work with diversified partnerships globally. Hoang Thi Ha and Pham Thi Phuong Thao, FULCRUM, September 26

South Asia

Recycling reform can kick India’s clean energy drive into gear. India’s lithium-ion demand rises from 15 GWh in 2025 to 127 GWh by 2030, with 75% supply dependence on China’s dominant value chains, exposing EV and storage plans to volatility and potential weaponized trade. Recycling can hedge risk: waste volumes could meet 14% of material needs and build a US$3.5 billion market by 2030. The 2022 rules created EPR and high recovery targets, yet collection stays weak, informal handlers dominate, and data traceability is poor. 2025 amendments add barcodes and a public registry, but omit mineral-specific quotas, adequate EPR pricing, and tech incentives. Stronger enforcement, standards, and integration of the informal sector are recommended. Mahesh Ganguly, East Asia Forum, September 27

Asia Daily: September 29, 2025