Asia Daily: September 27, 2024
Ex-Defense Minister Ishiba chosen to lead Japan’s ruling party and become prime minister. Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba was elected leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), positioning him to succeed Fumio Kishida as prime minister. Known for his centrist views and expertise in defense, Ishiba’s victory is seen as a move to regain public trust following recent scandals. He plans to continue Kishida’s economic policies, strengthen Japan’s security, and address social challenges, including gender equality and the declining birthrate. Mari Yamaguchi and Foster Klug, AP News, September 27
China's coast guard says Philippine vessel took supplies to Second Thomas Shoal. China's coast guard reported that the Philippines sent a civilian ship to deliver supplies to the warship Sierra Madre, stationed at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. This resupply mission follows a temporary agreement made in July between the two nations after several confrontations. However, the Philippines has indicated the deal could be reviewed due to recent tensions in the South China Sea. Reuters, September 27
Myanmar’s opposition rejects a military appeal for talks on a political solution to armed conflict. Myanmar's opposition National Unity Government rejected the military's offer to hold political talks aimed at resolving the ongoing armed conflict. Opposition groups, including ethnic militias like the Karen National Union, dismissed the military's proposal, calling it outdated. The offer comes as the military prepares for a national census to organize an election in 2024, which opponents argue is a bid to legitimize its rule. Grant Peck, AP News, September 27
Blinken and China's Wang meet on UN sidelines. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met during the U.N. General Assembly in New York to address global tensions, including China's stance on Russia's war in Ukraine and growing concerns over U.S.-China relations. Key topics included U.S. arms supplies to Taiwan, trade tariffs, and security concerns regarding Chinese technology. The meeting follows ongoing diplomatic efforts to stabilize relations ahead of potential talks between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden. Humeyra Pamuk and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, September 27
New Chinese nuclear attack submarine sank during construction, US defense official says. A U.S. defense official revealed that China’s newest nuclear-powered Zhou-class submarine sank at a pier during construction between May and June. Satellite imagery confirmed the incident, marking a setback for China’s naval ambitions. While Beijing has not commented on the loss, the U.S. regards China’s expanding naval capabilities as a growing concern. There is no evidence of radiation release, and the submarine’s status remains unknown. Tara Copp and Jon Gambrell, AP News, September 27
S. Korea reiterates N. Korea's denuclearization amid IAEA chief's remarks. The South Korean government reaffirmed its commitment to North Korea's denuclearization, despite IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's recent comments suggesting recognition of Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities. Grossi emphasized maintaining pressure while engaging in serious dialogue. South Korean officials reiterated that denuclearization is vital for peace and stability on the peninsula and globally, and that international efforts must continue, despite North Korea’s focus on advancing its nuclear program. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, September 27
Japan main opposition head hopes for combative debate with LDP Ishiba. Yoshihiko Noda, leader of Japan's main opposition party, expressed eagerness for a vigorous debate with Shigeru Ishiba, newly elected leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). As speculation grows about a general election, Noda, a former prime minister, anticipates a political showdown, using a sumo metaphor to highlight their contest. Ishiba, poised to become prime minister, won the LDP race amid a scandal and may call for a snap election soon. The Mainichi, September 27
Central Asian economies to see continued growth in 2024 and 2025. Economic projections from the EBRD and ADB indicate sustained growth across Central Asia. Kazakhstan is expected to grow by 4% in 2024, with further growth driven by infrastructure projects. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan may experience significant gains, particularly in tourism, infrastructure, and metals exports. Uzbekistan's economy is bolstered by remittances and industrial production, while Turkmenistan shows steady growth despite potential impacts from weaker Chinese demand for gas. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, September 27
Vietnamese Party General Secretary, State President meets with Cuban top legislator. General Secretary To Lam of Vietnam and Esteban Lazo Hernandez, President of Cuba’s National Assembly, highlighted the enduring solidarity and cooperation between their nations during a meeting in Havana. The leaders emphasized the historical ties between Vietnam and Cuba, reaffirming mutual support for future collaboration. They discussed enhancing legislative ties and implementing agreements between both countries to ensure sustainable progress in bilateral relations. Vietnam News, September 27
Fiji urges 'respect for our region' after China missile test. Fijian President Ratu Wiliame Katonivere called for an end to missile tests in the Pacific following China's recent intercontinental ballistic missile launch. In his U.N. speech, Katonivere emphasized the Pacific's historical role in nuclear testing and expressed concerns about regional security. China's missile, which carried a dummy warhead, landed near French Polynesia's economic zone, raising alarm in nearby territories. Australia and New Zealand also expressed concerns about the incident. Kirsty Needham, Reuters, September 27
Laos, Russia collaborate in military training exercise. Laos and Russia initiated a joint military exercise at the Sergievsky training ground in Russia’s Primorsky region. The training, themed “All stages of practical actions in single combat formations,” focuses on knowledge exchange and preparing for joint operations, particularly countering illegal armed groups and drone warfare. The drills featured tactical exercises, hostage rescue operations, and the use of modern weaponry, led by Major General Phanseng Bounphanh from Laos, alongside Russian military officials. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, September 27
China and Brazil hold peace plan meeting at UN, aim to be ‘partners to Russia and Ukraine.’ At the United Nations, China and Brazil advanced their peace mediation efforts for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized neutrality, opposing sanctions, while Brazilian officials framed the meeting as a "first step" towards global cooperation. Despite Ukraine's skepticism of the proposal, the "Friends for Peace" group, including Global South nations, expressed support for a political resolution. Western powers were notably absent. Mark Magnier and Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post, September 27
N. Korea raises number of criminal charges subject to death penalty: report. North Korea has increased the number of offenses punishable by death from 11 to 16, following multiple revisions to its penal code between 2022 and 2023. Newly added charges include anti-state propaganda, illegal handling of weapons, and ammunition offenses. This move appears aimed at strengthening regime security. The Korea Institute for National Unification also noted the removal of unification-related clauses in North Korea’s criminal law. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, September 27
‘Get things done’: China tries to rally risk-averse officials to revive economy. China's Politburo renewed its push to energize the economy, urging officials to take responsibility and innovate without fear of mistakes, reinforced by the "three exempts" policy. This strategy aims to overcome officials' reluctance due to centralized control and stringent oversight. The meeting follows recent stimulus measures and stresses that economic recovery is now a top priority, as Beijing grapples with balancing growth and national security. Xinlu Liang and William Zheng, South China Morning Post, September 27
Myanmar junta invites armed groups to stop fighting, start talks. Myanmar’s military junta has called on ethnic armed groups and the People’s Defense Forces to cease fighting and engage in political dialogue. The offer comes after the junta suffered battlefield losses and struggles with domestic challenges. Ethnic groups, including the Karen National Union, demand that the military agree to a federal democratic constitution and take responsibility for past actions before any discussions can take place. The Irrawaddy, September 27
Kyrgyzstan authorities seek expanded powers to regulate religious affairs. Kyrgyzstan's government has proposed new laws that promote a strict separation of religion and state, while expanding its control over religious activities. The bills require religious institutions to register with the state and restrict political involvement by religious leaders. The legislation also tightens oversight of religious education, public religious expression, and online discussions. Critics argue that these changes could limit freedoms, especially for non-Muslim communities. Ayzirek Imanaliyeva, Eurasianet, September 27
Ever-present. The shift to renewable energy is accelerating, but natural gas remains a key part of Japan’s energy mix, providing reliable backup for renewables. Despite gas being a fossil fuel with environmental risks, Japan sees it as essential for energy security and a transition away from coal. Clean energy advocates in Japan adopt a pragmatic stance, pushing for coal phase-out while accepting gas use in the short term. Long-term, groups still envision phasing out gas by mid-century for a fully decarbonized society. Walter James,
, September 27Chinese subs and American spies both get that sinking feeling. A U.S. government leak revealed that a Chinese submarine may have sunk at a Wuchang shipyard in May 2024, involving a new, secretive Type 041 nuclear-powered design. Satellite images first observed by former U.S. Navy officer Tom Shugart indicated salvage activity. This incident raises questions about China's military modernization and the U.S.'s growing trend to operationalize intelligence, maximizing political impact through disclosures. Chinese sources, however, dispute the report's accuracy. Sam Roggeveen, Lowy Institute, September 27
Japan’s Ishiba needs China to thrive to survive. Japan’s new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is balancing an economic challenge: stimulating Japan’s growth while navigating China’s economic troubles. Despite being a China hawk, Ishiba relies on Beijing’s economic recovery due to Japan’s strong trade dependence. With China rolling out stimulus measures and the U.S. softening monetary policy, Ishiba's survival as leader depends on external factors like these, as Japan’s economy faces its own inflationary pressures. William Pesek, Asia Times, September 27
Indigenous Nicobar Islanders face destruction as mega-development advances. The indigenous communities of India's Nicobar Islands are facing potential displacement due to the Great Nicobar Island Development project, which includes a transshipment port, airport, and major infrastructure initiatives. The development threatens the island's biodiversity and the livelihoods of the Shompen and Nicobarese people, as environmental degradation and forced relocation become imminent concerns. Critics argue that the project undermines indigenous rights and the ecological balance of the region. Sumit Mukherjee, East Asia Forum, September 28
Italy’s soft reset with China after dropping the Belt and Road. Italy is recalibrating its relationship with China following its decision to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Despite exiting the BRI, Italy seeks to maintain strong economic ties with China through bilateral trade and investment. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni aims to strike a balance between Western alliances and economic engagement with Beijing, particularly in areas like technology and energy. Giorgio Prodi, East Asia Forum, September 28
Foreign firms confront escalating challenges in China market. Foreign companies operating in China face growing difficulties due to changing policies, economic slowdown, and geopolitical tensions. Increasing government intervention, tighter cybersecurity regulations, and protectionist policies like "Made in China 2025" favor local companies, while foreign firms encounter restrictions on market access, technology transfer, and data management. As China's growth slows, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have declined, making firms reconsider their long-term strategies. Nicola Stoev, Geopolitical Monitor, September 27
Latin America and the China-US Space Race. Latin America has become a key region in the space rivalry between China and the U.S., with China consolidating partnerships in satellite technology and space programs with countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela. While China has deepened ties with Latin American countries since the 1980s, U.S. efforts to counter this influence have been limited. This space collaboration may have strategic implications for U.S. interests, especially in terms of space governance and defense. Ana Soliz de Stange, The Diplomat, September 27
Laos and Cambodia Don’t Include Scam Industries in Their GDP Data. Should They? Laos and Cambodia’s scam industries generate billions in revenue, but these illicit activities are excluded from official GDP figures. Including them could significantly inflate national economies, but raises ethical concerns about condoning criminal behavior. While some countries include illegal activities in economic metrics, Cambodia and Laos face dilemmas over reporting their shadow economies, which may already contribute to economic perceptions. David Hutt, The Diplomat, September 27
Tepco's Fukushima decommissioning effort is challenging — but making progress. Thirteen years after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Tepco has made great strides in decommissioning the power plant and managing the affected region. Key challenges remain, particularly with the controversial discharge of treated water into the Pacific Ocean. While safety remains a priority, concerns linger over environmental and public health impacts. The clean-up effort continues with international scrutiny and support. Junichi Matsumoto, The Japan Times, September 27
Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto’s visit to Moscow: Laying the groundwork for enhanced ties with Russia. During his July 2024 visit to Moscow, Prabowo Subianto signaled his intent to strengthen Indonesia-Russia relations across sectors like defense, trade, energy, and health. The visit reaffirmed Indonesia's neutral foreign policy while showing plans to improve military cooperation, boost bilateral trade through a potential FTA with the Eurasian Economic Union, and explore Russian support for Indonesia's nuclear energy and healthcare. Ian Storey, Fulcrum, September 27
DAP’s Party Polls in Penang: Partial Peace or Personality Politics? The Democratic Action Party (DAP) of Penang recently held party elections, displaying internal tensions between older and younger members. While younger leaders dominated the vote, longstanding internal divisions between DAP National Chairman Lim Guan Eng and Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow were evident. The election results suggest a push for leadership renewal, but national and local dynamics continue to complicate DAP's future in Penang politics. Francis E. Hutchinson, Fulcrum, September 27