Asia Daily: September 26, 2024
News
North Korea has enough uranium to build a ‘double-digit’ number of bombs, Seoul’s spy agency says. South Korea's National Intelligence Service reported that North Korea has likely enriched enough uranium to build at least 10 nuclear bombs. The assessment followed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's visit to a uranium enrichment facility, a move interpreted as defiance towards the U.S. ahead of its presidential election. North Korea also tested new missiles, including one potentially capable of nuclear strikes. The spy agency suggested North Korea may hold off on a nuclear test until after the U.S. election. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, September 26
China and Ukraine mull top-tier talks but Zelensky still cool on Beijing’s peace plan. Chinese and Ukrainian foreign ministers discussed potential "highest-level" talks between Presidents Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelensky, although Zelensky remains skeptical of China's peace plan for Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha highlighted continued bilateral trade and China’s support for Ukraine's territorial integrity during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Zelensky criticized China's proposal, claiming it doesn't fully commit to restoring Ukraine’s territory. The discussions came as China strengthens ties with Russia, marking 75 years of diplomatic relations. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, September 26
Paetongtarn revives Baan Phitsanulok. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra held her first meeting with her senior advisory team at Baan Phitsanulok, a historic official residence that has been mostly unused for decades. The five-member team, led by Pansak Vinyaratn, includes key figures such as Surapong Suebwonglee and Tongthong Chandransu. Baan Phitsanulok, built in 1922 and used by former leaders like Chatichai Choonhavan, is being reintegrated into Thai political life after a long period of disuse. Saritdet Marukatat, Bangkok Post, September 26
Japan defense force ship sails through Taiwan Strait for 1st time. A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force vessel, the destroyer Sazanami, sailed through the Taiwan Strait for the first time under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's direction, accompanied by Australian and New Zealand ships. The move triggered backlash from China, which protested the transit through the waterway between China and self-ruled Taiwan. Beijing claims Taiwan as its territory. Japan's government did not comment on the military operation, but Chinese officials criticized the passage as politically motivated, urging caution to avoid straining Sino-Japanese relations. Kyodo News, September 26
Hong Kong court sentences editor to 21 months in jail in a case seen as a barometer of press freedom. Former Stand News editor-in-chief Chung Pui-kuen was sentenced to 21 months in prison for conspiracy to publish seditious materials under a colonial-era law. A second editor, Patrick Lam, was freed due to health issues and time already served. This case is seen as indicative of Hong Kong's declining press freedom following Beijing's crackdown on dissent. Rights groups condemned the sentencing, while the government defended it as upholding justice. Kanis Leung, AP News, September 26
Laos takes lead in promoting clean energy at ASEAN Energy Business Forum. Laos hosted the 24th ASEAN Energy Business Forum in Vientiane, focusing on advancing clean energy and regional cooperation. Deputy Director General Soukvisan Khinsamone emphasized Laos’s role in renewable energy, with 90% of its current energy sourced from hydro, solar, and wind power. The event highlighted initiatives like the ASEAN Power Grid and carbon capture, as well as a Memorandum of Understanding with Huawei to further renewable energy across the region. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, September 26
Chinese company to build sugar substitutes plant in Kazakhstan. Chinese state firm CITIC Construction plans to invest over $1 billion in constructing a plant for sugar substitutes and other products derived from deep grain processing in Kazakhstan’s Almaty region. The facility will produce maltose, fructose, crystalline dextrose, and other by-products, with an annual processing capacity of 300,000 tons of wheat. The project aims to boost Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial sector, create 2,000 jobs, and strengthen economic ties with China. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, September 26
Taiwan raises alarm about renewed military threats from 'unstable' China. Taiwan's defense ministry expressed concerns on Thursday over a surge in Chinese military activities around the island, including live-fire drills, accusing Beijing of instability that threatens neighboring countries. This follows two consecutive days of large-scale Chinese military operations involving aircraft and warships. Taiwan detected 29 Chinese aircraft on Thursday and 43 the day before, with some flying near its coastline. China defended the drills, describing them as "legitimate." Tensions have escalated, with Taiwan urging restraint from Beijing. Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee, Reuters, September 26
China redoubles first-aid for its economy with support for banks and workers. China is preparing a substantial economic intervention, reportedly planning to recapitalize six state-owned banks with 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion), amid struggles following defaults in the property sector. The National Financial Regulatory Commission head, Li Yunze, emphasized the need for capital replenishment. President Xi Jinping and top leaders also announced measures to assist workers and the unemployed. Financial markets responded positively, with gains in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Stimulus measures include reduced interest rates and bank reserve requirements. Elaine Kurtenbach, AP News, September 26
Vietnamese, Cuban top leaders visit Mariel Special Development Zone in Cuba. During his visit to Cuba, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Tô Lâm, and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez toured the Mariel Special Development Zone (ZEDM), Cuba's first free trade and export processing zone. Vietnam is the second largest investor in the ZEDM, highlighted by projects like ViMariel Industrial Park. Both leaders praised the growing economic ties and the importance of this zone for future collaboration. Vietnam News, September 26
Myanmar junta urges armed opposition to join political fold in elections. Myanmar's military government urged its armed opponents, including the People's Defence Forces (PDF) and ethnic minority rebel groups, to abandon "terrorism" and participate in the upcoming 2024 general election. This marks the junta's first outreach to its rivals since the 2021 coup, but the offer was swiftly rejected by the National Unity Government (NUG) and PDF affiliates, who view the election as illegitimate. The junta faces ongoing civil war and international skepticism over its proposed election. Reuters, September 26
'I will not resign' – Sara Duterte. Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte declared she would not resign, despite calls from lawmakers criticizing her for not defending the Office of the Vice President's budget. She also addressed allegations regarding fund misuse raised during inquiries in the House of Representatives, concerning both her time in the Department of Education and her current role. Duterte maintained her innocence and committed to continuing her duties as vice president. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, September 26
Taiwan raises alarm about renewed military threats from 'unstable' China. Taiwan's defense ministry expressed concerns on Thursday over a surge in Chinese military activities around the island, including live-fire drills, accusing Beijing of instability that threatens neighboring countries. This follows two consecutive days of large-scale Chinese military operations involving aircraft and warships. Taiwan detected 29 Chinese aircraft on Thursday and 43 the day before, with some flying near its coastline. China defended the drills, describing them as "legitimate." Tensions have escalated, with Taiwan urging restraint from Beijing. Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee, Reuters, September 26
Vietnam affirms commitments to ASEAN socio-cultural community. At the 32nd ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) Council Meeting in Laos, Vietnam reiterated its commitment to strengthening ASEAN connectivity and advancing shared socio-cultural goals. Leading the delegation, Luu Quang Tuan emphasized the bloc’s unity and the need for resources to address issues like climate change, aiming to improve welfare for ASEAN citizens. The meeting also reviewed key initiatives and progress under Laos’ chairmanship, with a draft report set for submission at future ASEAN Summits. Vietnam News, September 26
Kazakhstan and China to increase cargo transportation along Trans-Caspian route. Kazakhstan and China have agreed to significantly boost cargo transit along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. By 2029, they aim to run 2,000 container trains annually, up from 600 planned in 2025-2026. Kazakhstan will enhance its Caspian port infrastructure to handle increased volumes, targeting 85,000 containers annually by 2029. The upgrades include building a container hub in Aktau and expanding Kuryk port to improve overall capacity. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, September 26
Analysis & Opinion
Stimulus package + Northvolt + Pension system. China’s central bank launched a stimulus package focusing on industrial investment and easing real estate pressures but is unlikely to reverse the economic downturn. Simultaneously, Europe’s de-risking efforts are challenged as Northvolt, a key battery project, struggles with production, highlighting the high costs of autonomy in global markets. Pension reforms in China, increasing the retirement age, aim to address the looming deficit amid an aging population and rising unemployment. MERICS, September 26
The Quad has solid foundations. Despite concerns over leadership turnover, the Quad remains strong as its recent summit in Delaware demonstrated continued commitment from the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia. While the meeting produced limited tangible outcomes, the growing institutionalization of the Quad, particularly through foreign ministers and senior officials' initiatives, shows its enduring relevance in countering China. The Quad’s focus remains on deepening cooperation, especially in the Indo-Pacific. Kieran Thompson, Lowy Institute, September 26
India’s Election and the BJP: Party Politics and Future Prospects. As India approaches its 2024 general elections, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces challenges, including internal party dynamics, economic pressures, and a more unified opposition. Despite these hurdles, the BJP’s strong electoral machinery and Prime Minister Modi's popularity give it a considerable advantage. The party is likely to leverage Hindu nationalism and economic reforms to maintain its dominant position in Indian politics. Milan Vaishnav and Caroline Mallory, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 26
A New Era in Sri Lanka?: Implications of Dissanayake’s Presidency. Anura Kumara Dissanayake won Sri Lanka's presidency in 2024, riding an anti-establishment wave driven by economic crises and dissatisfaction with traditional political elites. His leftist National People’s Power (NPP) party promises economic relief and anti-corruption measures, appealing to youth and marginalized communities. Dissanayake faces challenges, balancing domestic economic recovery with complex foreign relations, especially regarding India and China, as well as managing internal political instability. Rajni Gamage and Harindra Dassanayake, South Asian Voices, September 25
Marape seeks greater engagement between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister, James Marape, has called for deeper engagement with Indonesia, focusing on closer economic and security cooperation. Marape aims to strengthen ties with Indonesia in areas such as border security and trade, while balancing relations with key partners like Australia and China. This is part of PNG’s broader strategy to improve regional stability and economic growth. Nikolaus Loy and Hipolitus Wangge, East Asia Forum, September 27
What’s in a Name? For Andaman and Nicobar Islands’ Capital, Everything. The renaming of Port Blair to Sri Vijaya Puram has sparked a significant backlash from locals, who feel alienated by the decision. While the government frames the change as part of its decolonization efforts, residents argue the new name erases their history and identity. Critics also view the move as a distraction from pressing issues like infrastructure and unemployment on the islands. Leesha K. Nair, The Diplomat, September 26
ASEAN and the UN: Strengthening Security Through Multilateralism. The upcoming high-level ASEAN-UN summit aims to address geopolitical fragmentation and improve cooperation between the two entities. Key challenges include internal divisions within ASEAN, reforming the UN Security Council, and addressing ongoing crises like Myanmar. Despite these obstacles, both ASEAN and the UN are positioned to improve multilateral security, particularly through preventive diplomacy, peacekeeping, and joint humanitarian efforts. Joanne Lin, Fulcrum, September 26