Asia Daily: September 25, 2024
News
China offers Iran moral support in shadow of Israel-Hezbollah hostilities. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pledged support to Iran, emphasizing China's backing of Tehran's sovereignty and opposition to external interference. The discussions occurred amidst escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Wang criticized Israel's actions in Gaza and reaffirmed China's role in promoting a ceasefire. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian highlighted China's potential to mediate in the conflict. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, September 25
PM says call for two Korean states violates Constitution. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo criticized former presidential chief of staff Im Jong-seok’s recent suggestion that South and North Korea should exist as two separate states, stating it violates the South Korean Constitution. Han emphasized that Article 3 defines the territory of the Republic of Korea as including the entire Korean Peninsula and mandates reunification under a liberal democratic order. President Yoon Suk Yeol also condemned the proposal, labeling it unconstitutional. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, September 25
Philippines says its aircraft shadowed by Chinese navy helicopter during patrol. The Philippines reported that a Chinese navy helicopter shadowed a fisheries bureau aircraft near the disputed Scarborough Shoal during a patrol, violating air safety regulations. Despite this, the Philippine aircraft completed its mission. The incident adds to ongoing tensions between the two nations over the South China Sea. Separately, the Philippine defense minister urged China to withdraw vessels from its exclusive economic zone, accusing Beijing of interfering in defense activities. Karen Lema, Reuters, September 25
Kyrgyzstan presents its candidacy for UN Security Council. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov announced Kyrgyzstan's bid for a seat on the UN Security Council during the 79th UN General Assembly session in New York. He emphasized the need for greater representation of underrepresented countries and regions, including Africa, while advocating for global reductions in arms spending. Japarov pledged that Kyrgyzstan would work to improve the council's efficiency and transparency if elected. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, September 25
Taiwan lifts Fukushima-related restrictions on Japanese food imports. Taiwan has removed the last remaining restrictions on food imports from Japan’s Fukushima region, which were in place following the 2011 nuclear disaster. Certain items, like mushrooms and wild game, had previously faced bans. Imports from Fukushima and four other prefectures must still declare radiation levels and provide a certificate of origin, but radiation reports are no longer required for specific foods. Neighboring countries like China and South Korea maintain similar bans. Kyodo News, September 25
ADB maintains Cambodia's economic growth forecast for 2024/25. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has retained its projections for Cambodia's economic growth at 5.8% for 2024 and 6.0% for 2025. Growth is driven by a rebound in the garment, footwear, and travel goods sectors, along with progress in agriculture and tourism. Inflation has been revised down to 0.5% for 2024 due to lower food and fuel costs. Risks to the forecast include potential slowdowns in key global economies and weather events. The Phnom Penh Post, September 25
China test-fires an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean. China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean, marking a rare and significant test amid rising tensions with the U.S. and regional powers. The People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force carried out the test as part of routine training, with the missile landing in a designated area. Experts view the test as China signaling its growing nuclear capabilities and readiness to assert itself globally. The test occurred during the U.N. General Assembly. Christopher Bodeen, AP News, September 25
India-China relationship is key to the future of Asia, New Delhi’s foreign minister says. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasized that relations between India and China will shape not only Asia's future but the global order. Speaking at an Asia Society event, Jaishankar highlighted the unique challenges of both nations' "parallel rise," while acknowledging ongoing tensions, particularly over the Himalayan border dispute. He also noted India’s dual alignment with both the U.S.-led Quad and Brics, maintaining strategic balance between competing powers. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, September 25
Myanmar junta airstrikes targeting Shan State civilians: MNDAA. Myanmar's military regime has launched airstrikes in northern Shan State, particularly in Lashio and Hsipaw, allegedly targeting civilians, according to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). The attacks have destroyed civilian infrastructure, including schools and homes, causing casualties. These strikes are part of a broader military campaign against rebel forces in the region as the MNDAA and other ethnic armed groups continue to resist the junta’s control. Author, The Irrawaddy, September 25
UN rights council takes Tajikistan to task. The UN Human Rights Council criticized Tajikistan for failing to address atrocities from the 1990s civil war, including enforced disappearances. A follow-up report from the council's Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances condemned the government's inaction on recommendations for truth-seeking and accountability measures. According to the report, Tajikistan has not taken steps to heal societal wounds or provide reparations for victims. Eurasianet, September 25
Duterte won’t attend House probe, tells lawmakers to end it 'immediately'. Vice President of the Philippines Sara Duterte announced she will not attend the House inquiry into her office’s confidential funds and asked lawmakers to conclude the investigation swiftly. In a letter to Rep. Joel Chua, chairman of the House Committee on Good Government and Public Accountability, Duterte emphasized that the inquiry was unnecessary and urged the committee to terminate the probe. Duterte cited the importance of legislative focus on national issues. Reina C. Tolentino, MThe Manila Times, September 25
'Fishing net': Police quotas, surveillance trap North Koreans in China. Chinese authorities have increased border surveillance and imposed quotas for capturing undocumented migrants, intensifying efforts to detain North Korean defectors. Advanced facial recognition, biometric data collection, and deportation centers have made escape more difficult. Defectors fear being trapped in China, while experts say Beijing's actions help maintain regional stability and exert influence over North Korea. The crackdown has escalated since 2023, and repatriation rates of defectors have risen significantly. Ju-min Park and Eduardo Baptista, Reuters, September 25
Ishiba, Koizumi, Takaichi lead crowded field in LDP election. Three non-factional candidates, Shigeru Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi, are leading the race for the presidency of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). None of the nine candidates are expected to secure a majority in the first round of voting, leading to a likely runoff. Ishiba leads in public support, while Koizumi and Takaichi are gaining traction among LDP lawmakers. The election's outcome remains uncertain, with many lawmakers undecided. Shinichi Fujiwara, The Asahi Shimbun, September 25
N. Korea accuses U.S. of using Quad to justify anti-Pyongyang confrontational policy. North Korea condemned the U.S. for leveraging the Quad security summit to justify hostile actions against Pyongyang. Following the summit, where Quad leaders denounced North Korea's missile launches and nuclear program, Pyongyang claimed the Quad is a tool of U.S. unipolar domination. North Korea's foreign ministry warned it would not tolerate actions infringing on its sovereignty, accusing the U.S. of deepening regional instability. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, September 25
Sri Lanka’s new president says he’ll restart talks with the IMF to find a way out of economic crisis. Newly elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake announced plans to resume discussions with the International Monetary Fund and foreign creditors to address Sri Lanka’s ongoing economic crisis. Despite earlier campaign promises to renegotiate the IMF bailout, Dissanayake has hinted at continuing much of the existing agreement. Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy in 2022 and is currently restructuring $83 billion in debt. The IMF’s next tranche of $3 billion is crucial for economic stability. Krishan Francis, AP News, September 25
India-controlled Kashmir votes in the second phase of polls to elect local government. Under heavy security, residents of Indian-controlled Kashmir voted in the second phase of local elections, the first since the region's autonomy was revoked in 2019. Around 2.6 million residents were eligible to vote in six districts, with a 55% turnout. Unlike previous elections, separatists did not boycott the polls. Most political parties campaigned on reversing the 2019 changes, while Modi's BJP focused on economic development. Results are expected on October 8. Aijaz Hussain, AP News, September 25
Biden meets Vietnam leader to counter Hanoi's ties with China and Russia. U.S. President Joe Biden met with Vietnamese President To Lam on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, discussing enhanced strategic cooperation in semiconductors, supply chains, and cybersecurity. The leaders reaffirmed commitments to freedom of navigation amid regional tensions with China. Lam also sought U.S. support in removing Vietnam's non-market economy status and strengthening economic ties. Steve Holland and Simon Lewis, Reuters, September 25
US missile system will remain in the Philippines despite China’s alarm. U.S. and Filipino officials agreed to keep the Typhon missile system in northern Philippines to bolster defense amid China's concerns. Deployed for joint exercises in April, the system could stay until April next year for further drills. China warned the deployment could destabilize the region, but Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro dismissed these claims, calling China's protests interference in internal affairs. The missile system targets threats within a 1,000-mile range, including China. Jim Gomez, AP News, September 25
Analysis & Opinion
The German navy wades into the waters of the Taiwan Strait. For the first time in over 20 years, two German navy ships sailed through the Taiwan Strait in September, signaling Germany’s commitment to international law and freedom of navigation. This deployment reflects Germany's growing concern over China's military actions and Beijing’s expansive territorial claims. Despite Chinese protests, Berlin aims to support the rules-based order and strengthen ties with regional allies. The German government plans to continue similar missions in the Indo-Pacific every two years. MERICS, September 25
Yesterday’s stick, today’s carrot? China’s removal of the Japan seafood ban.
China announced plans to lift its year-long ban on Japanese seafood, initially imposed after Japan began releasing treated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant. This is viewed as part of broader strategic calculations, potentially aimed at easing tensions with Japan amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. While the ban's removal could benefit Japan’s seafood industry, the timing suggests Beijing may also be leveraging this concession in future diplomatic negotiations. Victor Ferguson and Darren Lim, Lowy Institute, September 26
US-China S&T exchange: A victim of politics? The expiration of the U.S.-China Science and Technology Agreement (STA) is another victim of growing geopolitical tensions between the two nations. Originally signed in 1979, the STA facilitated collaboration on scientific research and innovation. The non-renewal of this agreement could severely hinder bilateral cooperation, particularly in areas like climate change and global health. Political factors, especially in an election year, have heightened concerns, leaving the agreement’s future uncertain. Denis Simon, ICAS, September 25
U.S. Military Support for Taiwan in Five Charts. The United States has supported Taiwan’s defense capabilities for decades, supplying nearly $50 billion in military equipment since 1950. Despite ongoing deliveries, Taiwan faces a large backlog of U.S. weapons, including F-16 jets and missile systems. The U.S. maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan’s defense, while China continues to oppose any U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation. Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow, Council on Foreign Relations, September 25
The ghost of Shinzo Abe looms large over Japan’s LDP election. Shinzo Abe’s legacy continues to shape Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as it approaches a crucial leadership race. Although Abe's faction, Seiwakai, remains influential, it struggles without a clear successor following his assassination. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Kochikai faction is gaining ground, largely due to scandals such as the Unification Church controversy, that have weakened Seiwakai’s grip. Ryosuke Hanada, East Asia Forum, September 26
Strengthening ASEAN’s responses to transnational crime. ASEAN faces increasing challenges in tackling transnational crimes such as human trafficking, drug smuggling, and wildlife trafficking. To address these, member states must improve collaboration, intelligence sharing, and better integrate regional law enforcement efforts. Strengthening maritime patrols and border security, alongside bolstering legal frameworks, is essential to combat criminal networks operating across borders. ASEAN’s focus on building institutional capacity and working closely with civil society is critical for a more coordinated and effective response. Hai Luong, East Asia Forum, September 25
Pyongyang’s New Frame. North Korea is changing its geopolitical narrative, positioning itself as part of a group of “independent sovereign states” opposing U.S. influence. This reframing suggests a potential “just strategic axis,” aimed at countering U.S.-led defense alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Recent military cooperation with Russia, such as Sergei Shoigu’s visit, shows North Korea’s deepening ties with Moscow while relations with China appear cooler. Pyongyang may seek Russian military support amid rising tensions in the region. Robert L. Carlin, 38 North, September 25
China-Philippines Tensions Flare in South China Sea. Tensions between China and the Philippines are escalating over the South China Sea, particularly following the more assertive stance of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Manila's new transparency initiative seeks to expose Chinese actions around contested areas like the Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese Coast Guard vessels have increasingly used aggressive tactics. The situation has led to closer military cooperation between the Philippines and the United States, raising the potential for further escalations in the region. Zachary Fillingham, Geopolitical Monitor, September 25
How China Soured on Nepal. China's relations with Nepal have deteriorated due to growing frustrations over political, economic, and military setbacks. Beijing has struggled to sway Nepal's foreign policy and counterbalance India's influence, especially following Nepal’s ratification of the U.S.-backed MCC Compact. China's diplomatic missteps, including aggressive "wolf warrior" tactics, and challenges in infrastructure projects, such as the Pokhara Airport, have further strained ties. Atul Kumar, The Diplomat, September 25
The LDP election through the eyes of allies, 'frenemies' and foes. The upcoming Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is under close scrutiny from Japan’s global allies, rivals, and neighboring nations. While the U.S. and its allies favor continuity in Japan’s foreign policy, adversaries like China and North Korea are more interested in internal division and inexperienced leadership. The election's outcome will have significant implications for Japan's geopolitical standing and relationships in the Indo-Pacific region. Stephen R. Nagy, The Japan Times, September 25
Draghi warns Europe — and Japan — about the failure to innovate. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi warned that Europe faces an existential crisis unless it revitalizes economic innovation. His recent report highlights the need for a new industrial strategy, calling for €800 billion in annual investments. Draghi's message also serves as a cautionary tale for Japan, which must prioritize innovation to ensure economic competitiveness and security in an increasingly volatile global landscape. Brad Glosserman, The Japan Times, September 25
Lessons from a Young Female Preacher on Islamic Preaching in Rural Central Java. Mumpuni Handayayekti, a young female preacher from Central Java, has gained popularity by blending humor with Islamic preaching in the local Javanese dialect. Her unconventional style challenges male dominance in religious spaces and resonates with mixed rural audiences. By using relatable examples and avoiding traditionalist barriers, Mumpuni’s approach reflects the diversity of Islamic practices in Indonesia, demonstrating the importance of local cultural elements in religious outreach. Haula Noor, Fulcrum, September 26
The People’s Vision for Regional Decarbonisation in Southeast Asia. A recent survey shows Southeast Asian citizens' views on decarbonisation, with nearly half prioritizing regional energy infrastructure development and financial support for renewable projects. While progress has been made, challenges like insufficient technical expertise and financing persist. The survey shows the importance of aligning grassroots perceptions with elite policymaking to ensure a successful energy transition in ASEAN. Mirza Sadaqat Huda, Fulcrum, September 25
China’s Escalating Unauthorized Marine Research in East Asia and Its Political Motivations. China has increasingly conducted unauthorized marine scientific research (MSR) within Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), particularly in strategically important areas like the Okinawa Trough. These activities, violating international norms under UNCLOS, are seen as part of China's broader geopolitical strategy to assert maritime claims. The research could also serve military purposes, such as mapping the seafloor for submarine navigation, raising regional security concerns. Kyoichi Sasazawa, The Geopolitics, September 25