Asia Daily: September 24, 2024
News
Japan downgrades diplomatic ties with Myanmar junta. Japan has downgraded its diplomatic relations with Myanmar's military regime, replacing its ambassador with a lower-ranked Chargé d'Affaires. This decision follows the 2021 coup and aligns Japan with other countries like the U.S. and UK, which have similarly reduced their diplomatic presence in Myanmar in protest of the junta's human rights violations. Japan continues to call for an end to violence, the release of political prisoners, and the restoration of democracy. The Irrawaddy, September 24
Former Singaporean minister pleads guilty to receiving illegal gifts. Former Transport Minister S. Iswaran pleaded guilty to obstructing justice and accepting illegal gifts in Singapore’s first ministerial criminal trial in nearly 50 years. He admitted to receiving over SGD 74,000 (USD 57,000) in gifts, including Formula 1 tickets and luxury items, from property tycoon Ong Beng Seng and businessman Lum Kok Seng. Although originally facing 35 charges, prosecutors pursued only five. The case tarnishes the ruling People’s Action Party's image, ahead of general elections due by 2025. AP News, September 24
Pope asks for liberation of Myanmar's detained ex-leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Pope Francis has called for the release of Myanmar’s former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been detained since the military coup in 2021. The pope offered the Vatican as a safe haven for Suu Kyi, revealing he had met her son in Rome. Suu Kyi, jailed for 27 years on various charges she denies, has had no recent contact with her lawyers. The pontiff emphasized the need for peace in Myanmar, grounded in democracy and respect for human rights. Giulia Segreti, Reuters, September 24
Kyrgyzstan expands banking cooperation with China. Kyrgyzstan is advancing its banking ties with China by discussing integration with China's cross-border interbank payment system. Talks between Kyrgyz officials and the People’s Bank of China included proposals for Chinese investment in Kyrgyz securities and the issuance of yuan-based securities backed by Chinese guarantees. Trade between Kyrgyzstan and China has surged, reaching $11 billion in the first half of 2024, a 40% increase from the previous year. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, September 24
Vietnam sets up diplomatic relations with Malawi, its 194th country partner. Vietnam has established diplomatic ties with Malawi, marking its 194th diplomatic partner. The agreement was signed by Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son and Malawian Foreign Minister Nancy Tempo during the UN General Assembly in New York. Both nations plan to enhance cooperation in various fields, including agriculture, education, and economic development, with Vietnam offering to share its expertise and collaborate on trilateral projects through international organizations. Vietnam News, September 24
Maldives leader says Israel must be held to account for ‘genocide’ in Gaza. Maldives President Ibrahim Solih has called for Israel to be held accountable for what he described as genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, Solih urged international bodies to take action to address Israel’s actions and support Palestinian rights. He reiterated the Maldives' longstanding support for a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders. Al Jazeera, September 24
Yoon's dinner with PPP leadership ends without meaningful discussions. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's dinner meeting with the ruling People Power Party (PPP) leadership concluded without addressing sensitive issues such as medical reform and controversies involving first lady Kim Keon Hee. The informal gathering focused on Yoon’s recent trip to the Czech Republic and boosting PPP morale. Despite a request for a private meeting from PPP chief Han Dong-hoon, no one-on-one discussion occurred. Han aims to revisit these topics, particularly the medical school quota issue, in future talks. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, September 24
PLA sends South China Sea commander to US for first time in over 2 years. General Wu Yanan, the commander of China's PLA Southern Theatre Command, attended the Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defence Conference in Hawaii, marking the first high-level military engagement between the US and China since communication channels were severed over two years ago. Wu met with US Indo-Pacific commander Admiral Samuel Paparo, with both sides discussing ways to reduce risks of misperception. This is a significant resumption in high-level military talks between the two countries, which were largely dormant after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022. Hayley Wong, South China Morning Post, September 24
MP: Kazakhstan's army not ready to switch to a contractual basis. Kazakh MP Konstantin Avershin argued that the country's military is not prepared to abolish compulsory service and transition to a fully professional army. Avershin emphasized the importance of military training for citizens in a country with vast territory but a small population. He also cited budget constraints as a reason to maintain conscription. The debate follows a public petition calling for the end of mandatory service due to concerns over hazing and inadequate training. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, September 24
Kamikawa urges China's Wang to ensure safety of Japanese nationals. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa pressed Chinese diplomat Wang Yi to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens in China, especially children, following the fatal stabbing of a Japanese schoolboy in Shenzhen. Kamikawa requested detailed information on the incident and action against anti-Japanese online content. Wang described the case as an isolated incident and assured that China would protect all foreign residents. The ministers also discussed the easing of China's ban on Japanese marine products and China's opposition to the Fukushima water discharge. Kyodo News, September 24
Sri Lanka’s new president calls parliamentary election to consolidate his mandate. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake dissolved Parliament on Tuesday, calling for a snap election on November 14 to consolidate power after his recent presidential win. Dissanayake’s Marxist-leaning party holds only three seats in the current Parliament. Hours before the dissolution, Harini Amarasuriya, a member of his coalition, was sworn in as the first female prime minister in 24 years. Dissanayake aims to ease austerity measures imposed by his predecessor under an IMF relief agreement. Bharatha Mallawarachi, AP News, September 24
North Korea vows response to US submarine’s visit to South Korea. Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, vowed to enhance North Korea's nuclear capabilities in response to a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine’s arrival in South Korea. She condemned the submarine's visit as a "frantic" U.S. military provocation and warned that South Korean ports and military bases are unsafe. The statement followed North Korea's recent unveiling of a uranium-enrichment facility and missile tests. South Korea's military warned of potential action if North Korea escalates its ongoing balloon campaign. Hyung-jin Kim, AP News, September 24
Pheu Thai 'flexible' on policy. Thailand’s Pheu Thai Party signaled flexibility on its proposed charter amendment regarding ethical standards for politicians, saying it may drop the plan if coalition partners oppose it. The amendment gained attention after Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was removed for an ethical violation. Critics, including the Bhumjaithai Party, argue against changing scrutiny measures for public officials. Pheu Thai is planning discussions with coalition partners to decide the next steps. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, September 25
Singapore commissions two new submarines as Asia's undersea rivalry grows. Singapore added two advanced submarines, the Invincible and Impeccable, to its fleet in a ceremony on Tuesday. Ordered from Germany in 2013, these Invincible-class submarines are considered technological upgrades, allowing the city-state's navy to operate further from shore with a smaller crew. The vessels are part of Singapore's efforts to secure vital sea lanes, as regional undersea competition intensifies. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong emphasized the importance of unimpeded maritime movement for Singapore's prosperity. Gerry Doyle, Reuters, September 24
Canada aims to match US on banning Chinese-made car software. Canada is considering banning Chinese-made software in vehicles, following the US's lead, as a security measure against potential data threats. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland confirmed the move, aligning with Canada’s existing tariffs on Chinese EVs and materials. While tariffs face potential challenges under WTO rules, a software ban could be more permanent. Political support for the ban is strong, with Ontario’s Premier and industry leaders urging alignment with US policies. Chinese automakers, including BYD Co., are exploring entry into the Canadian market. South China Morning Post, September 24
S. Korea, U.S., Japan to finalize trilateral secretariat when leaders meet this year. The foreign ministers of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan reaffirmed their commitment to establishing a trilateral cooperation secretariat during a meeting at the U.N. General Assembly in New York. The secretariat, set to be finalized at a leaders' meeting later this year, aims to institutionalize the partnership in areas like security and technology. The ministers also discussed the growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, expressing concerns over regional stability. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, September 24
Nippon Steel reapplies for U.S. Steel review amid Biden opposition. Nippon Steel Corp. has resubmitted its acquisition proposal for U.S. Steel to the U.S. committee on foreign investment, extending the review by 90 days. The move comes as U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly plans to block the $14.1 billion deal, citing concerns over national security and domestic steel production. The acquisition faces strong opposition from the United Steelworkers union, making it a politically sensitive issue in the upcoming U.S. election. Nippon Steel has pledged to maintain U.S. Steel's operations and jobs. Kyodo News, September 24
Vietnam prioritizes relations with China: Deputy PM. Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc reaffirmed Vietnam’s commitment to strengthening its relationship with China, describing it as a strategic priority during talks with Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang. The two sides discussed enhancing cooperation in various areas, including infrastructure connectivity, agricultural trade, and investment. Ding expressed China’s support for Vietnam’s economic development, with both parties agreeing to maintain high-level meetings and deepen political trust. Vietnam News, September 24
Analysis & Opinion
Bargaining chips: What the Vance Doctrine means for Taiwan. JD Vance’s foreign policy approach, known as the Vance Doctrine, focuses on limiting U.S. intervention to protect direct American interests, particularly with regards to China rather than broader ideological goals. While Vance supports Taiwan for its strategic semiconductor industry, his restrained stance suggests future U.S. support may decline if America achieves domestic chip production. Taiwan's reliance on U.S. defense could be challenged under this framework, pushing the island toward greater self-sufficiency. Jordan McGillis, Lowy Institute, September 25
North Korea and its middle power friends. North Korea, classified as a "middle power" by the 2024 Asia Power Index, derives its influence from its nuclear capabilities and military strength despite its limited economic and diplomatic ties. Its relationship with Russia has grown, while China’s interactions with Pyongyang remain minimal. Russia continues to invest diplomatically in North Korea, even as it faces isolation elsewhere. North Korea’s role in global security remains large, particularly with its support for Russia in the Ukraine war. Gabriela Bernal, Lowy Institute, September 24
Changing South Korea’s Espionage Law is Good for Business. South Korea's proposed reform of its espionage law seeks to improve national security by addressing industrial espionage, especially state-backed theft of trade secrets. The current law's narrow focus on "enemy" states limits the prosecution of foreign actors like China, which is involved in many technology theft cases. Broadening the law could protect critical industries, particularly semiconductors, and improve economic security by deterring both foreign and domestic espionage. Ben Forney, Korea Economic Institute of America, September 24
Xi’s property fix has a local government problem. China's efforts to resolve its property crisis are being undermined by local governments' reluctance to implement central orders to buy unsold homes. Although Xi Jinping's administration allocated 300 billion yuan to tackle the issue, local authorities, facing significant debt, are hesitant to comply. This resistance complicates the national strategy to stabilize the property market and avoid deflation, with experts predicting the crisis may last several more years. William Pesek, Asia Times, September 24
Can Bangladesh Really Reform? Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, is struggling to maintain stability and implement institutional reforms aimed at reducing political polarization and patronage. Despite initial progress after protests unseated Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the military’s influence and deep-rooted political networks present significant obstacles. Major challenges include security, public services, and the country’s patronage-driven economy, raising concerns over the interim government's ability to sustain long-term reforms. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, September 24
Australia stepping up to assist Pacific cybersecurity. Australia is increasing its commitment to Pacific Island nations by deploying rapid cyber assist teams to address growing cybersecurity threats. These teams will provide expertise to respond to cyber incidents, secure critical infrastructure, and strengthen the region's digital defenses. The initiative, part of a broader Australian cybersecurity strategy, includes investments to enhance long-term resilience through training, vulnerability assessments, and improved digital infrastructure, particularly in sectors like telecommunications and government services. Tim Watts, East Asia Forum, September 24
Chinese Peacemaking Efforts in Afghanistan. China’s evolving role in Afghanistan reflects its change from a passive observer to a potential leading mediator in conflict resolution. Initially avoiding involvement, Beijing now attempts mediation between Afghan factions, Pakistan, and the U.S., driven by concerns over regional stability and the Belt and Road Initiative's security. China's mediation efforts include bilateral talks and multilateral groups like the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, but its focus remains on noninterference and protecting its domestic and economic interests. Barnett R. Rubin, Stimson Center, September 23
The Secret History of South Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program. South Korea secretly pursued nuclear weapons in the 1970s under President Park Chung-hee, driven by security fears from North Korean provocations and declining U.S. military presence. The program focused on acquiring plutonium reprocessing technology, but U.S. diplomatic pressure, particularly with France and Canada, ultimately led to its termination by 1976. Despite current public support for nuclear development, South Korea remains committed to non-proliferation under international frameworks. Kwanghoon Han, Geopolitical Monitor, September 24
The Hidden Significance of China’s Aircraft Carrier Passage Near Japan’s Yonaguni Island. China’s increased naval activity near Yonaguni Island, including the recent passage of the Liaoning aircraft carrier, reflects increasing tensions between China and Japan. These include heightened use of the Yonaguni Channel for operational training, growing anti-submarine efforts, and extensive hydrological surveys. This signals China’s strategic interest in the region’s waters, presenting challenges for Japan and Taiwan in maintaining surveillance and defense capabilities. Cheng-kun Ma & K. Tristan Tang, The Diplomat, September 24
Form over substance: The contradictions in Japan-China relations. Despite increasing tensions, Japan and China remain economically interdependent, showing the complex nature of their relationship. Political gestures, such as visits by Japanese delegations to China, demonstrate efforts to stabilize ties, but unresolved security issues and territorial disputes persist. These contradictions illustrate the challenge both countries face in balancing economic cooperation with rising geopolitical friction, a dynamic shared by many of China’s neighbors. Stephen R. Nagy, The Japan Times, September 24
Could Elections Provide a Way Out of Myanmar’s Political Crisis? Surveys conducted in Myanmar reveal skepticism toward elections resolving the country’s political crisis. Many respondents believe military-run elections would entrench control by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), with widespread concerns that the elections may worsen instability. Some support elections as a non-violent solution, but the majority feel meaningful reform requires dialogue with key opposition groups before any election can be successful. Kyaw Yin Hlaing, Fulcrum, September 24