China
Chinese defense minister meets with US House of Representatives delegation, says both sides should ensure smooth military communication channels. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun met with a U.S. congressional delegation led by Rep. Adam Smith, urging pragmatic cooperation and reaffirming China's commitment to mutual respect and peaceful coexistence. Both sides agreed on the importance of stable military communication to promote constructive bilateral relations. Global Times, September 22
China could shore up Scarborough Shoal control with artificial island: analyst. China may construct an artificial island at Scarborough Shoal if its new nature reserve fails to limit Philippine presence, according to analyst Wu Shicun. The move would aim to assert sovereignty while cutting enforcement costs. Tensions have escalated with Manila and external powers, raising the likelihood of reclamation. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, September 22
China prepares for long US soybean stand-off with huge Brazilian imports. China imported 12.2 million tonnes of soybeans in August, mainly from Brazil, as it braces for prolonged trade tensions with the US. Imports from the US remain minimal due to retaliatory tariffs. Analysts expect South American suppliers to dominate upcoming shipments, potentially straining US farmers amid stalled negotiations. Mandy Zuo and Mia Nurmamat, South China Morning Post, September 22
Japan
Japan to take comprehensive approach for timing of recognizing Palestinian state. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi stated that Japan supports a two-state solution and will determine the timing of recognizing Palestinian statehood based on a broad evaluation of evolving circumstances. He emphasized the importance of sustainable Palestinian statehood and coexistence with Israel, following recent recognition moves by other countries. The Japan Times, September 22
Survey: Takaichi favored by general public in LDP election. Sanae Takaichi led overall public support in the LDP leadership race with 28 percent, while Shinjiro Koizumi ranked highest among party supporters at 41 percent. Rising prices topped voter concerns, and 68 percent said the party should investigate its funds scandal. Only 26 percent expected meaningful change under new leadership. The Asahi Shimbun, September 22
South Korea
Presidential office backs N. Korea-U.S. talks but holds firm on denuclearization goal. South Korea expressed support for renewed U.S.-North Korea dialogue while reaffirming its commitment to denuclearization, despite Kim Jong Un’s demand for the U.S. to drop that objective. Officials emphasized peaceful inter-Korean relations, rejected unification by absorption, and affirmed close coordination with Washington to address nuclear issues. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, September 22
Leader of South Korea's unification church jailed after court issues warrant. Han Hak-ja, head of the Unification Church, was detained by a South Korean court amid allegations of bribing former First Lady Kim Keon Hee to benefit the church’s business interests. The arrest follows a broader investigation into the ousted president Yoon Suk Yeol and his wife. The church pledged full cooperation. Ju-min Park, Reuters, September 22
North Korea
Kim Jong Un launches sweeping purge following Beijing trip. Kim Jong Un initiated widespread purges across party, military, and government ranks after returning from China, targeting officials for poor performance during his absence. Propaganda staff were punished for poorly edited footage of his visit, while defense and foreign ministry personnel faced dismissal for delays and protocol failures. Inspections are ongoing across all sectors. Seulkee Jang, Daily NK, September 23
Kim's remarks on Trump augur well for dialogue, but denuclearization goal in question. Kim Jong Un signaled openness to talks with the U.S. if it drops denuclearization demands, boosting speculation of a Trump-Kim meeting at the APEC summit. Analysts remain skeptical that renewed diplomacy would resolve nuclear issues, with focus possibly shifting toward risk reduction. Seoul seeks involvement despite limited leverage. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, September 22
North Korea's Kim says he will strengthen ties with China more vigorously, state media reports. Kim Jong Un pledged to deepen North Korea's relationship with China following Xi Jinping's message marking the North’s founding anniversary. He praised China's support during his recent visit to Beijing, where the two leaders met and attended a military parade together. Ju-min Park, Reuters, September 22
Thailand
PP submits revised charter rewrite. The People's Party submitted a revised constitutional amendment to establish a new drafting process featuring a 35-member committee appointed by parliament and a 100-member advisory council elected by provinces. A referendum combining two questions would coincide with the general election. The plan aims to balance public input with legal constraints set by a recent court ruling. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, September 22
New Thai government sets up team to tackle strong baht, targets debt burden. Thailand’s new administration formed a multi-agency task force to address the baht’s four-year high, which threatens tourism and exports. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas emphasized tackling household debt and reviving the economy, while Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul urged banks to increase market liquidity to support struggling businesses. Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong Thaichareon, Thanadech Staporncharnchai, Chayut Setboonsarng, Reuters, September 22
Myanmar
Myanmar junta eases election rules to keep parties in race. Myanmar’s military regime lowered the threshold for national parties to contest elections from 417 to 209 constituencies, aiming to prevent mass disqualifications ahead of the December-January polls. The move follows the dissolution of four parties for registration failures. Observers view the adjustment as a tactical step to bolster election credibility. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, September 22
Philippines
Marcos willing to submit himself to ICI investigation. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is open to an Independent Commission for Infrastructure probe into allegations that he accepted ₱20 million in campaign funds from a contractor tied to government projects. The Palace said Marcos will not avoid investigation if evidence emerges, while emphasizing the Commission on Elections' mandate to handle such cases. Luisa Cabato, Philippine Daily Inquirer, September 22
Philippines reallocates P255 billion from DPWH 2026 budget for social programs. The House budget amendments subcommittee began reallocating P255 billion removed from the DPWH’s 2026 budget to social programs. Funds were redirected to crisis assistance, labor programs, education subsidies, and farmer support, with P32 billion added to the AICS program and P22.5 billion to basic education facilities. The revised DPWH budget stands at P625 billion. Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, September 22
Indonesia
RI may recognize Israel, if Palestine gains independence. Indonesia will consider recognizing Israel if Israel first recognizes an independent Palestinian state, President Prabowo Subianto told a High-Level Conference on Palestine and the Two-State Solution at the UN in New York. He endorsed the New York Declaration adopted on September 12, urged an end to violence against civilians, and framed recognition as part of security guarantees for both peoples. Delegates applauded the remarks. The conference, linked to the 80th UN General Assembly, was co-initiated by France and Saudi Arabia. ANTARA News, September 23
Singapore
Singapore to sanction Israeli settler leaders, supports Palestine statehood. Singapore announced targeted sanctions against Israeli settler group leaders and reaffirmed support for Palestinian statehood, contingent on the emergence of a government that recognizes Israel and renounces terrorism. Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan criticized Israeli settlement expansion and called for a two-state solution based on peace and mutual recognition. Jun Yong, Reuters, September 22
East Asia
Fertility Decline in China and Its National, Military, Structural, and Regime Security. China’s total fertility rate fell from above six in the 1960s to about one by 2024, driving population shrinkage, rapid aging, and a projected 28% contraction of the labor force from its 2015 peak by 2050; the old-age dependency ratio is set to more than double to 0.52, straining pensions, health care, and public finances. Military force size remains adequate short term, yet future manpower for large-scale ground operations could tighten, moving emphasis toward technology, efficiency, and partnerships with Russia and Iran. Economic growth faces headwinds from higher social spending, youth unemployment, and uneven innovation impacts. Policy levers include pro-natal incentives, limited immigration, hukou reform, automation, and higher retirement ages, each with trade-offs. Michael S. Pollard, Jennifer Bouey, Agnes Xiangzhen Wang, and Rakesh Pandey, RAND Corporation, September 22
The Strategic Risks of a Korean War Peace Treaty. Replacing the armistice with a peace pact could trigger US drawdowns, dissolve UNC access, and weaken deterrence unless allied capabilities expand, while deferring denuclearization would leave DPRK nuclear forces intact and unsettle Seoul and Tokyo. Historical cases warn that premature withdrawals invite coercion, yet calibrated burden sharing can work if regional allies absorb roles credibly. Policy priorities include conditioning advanced US capabilities on higher allied spending, empowering Japan as a stabilizer, deepening US–ROK–Japan strike and logistics integration, and signaling steady commitment to avoid hedging toward Beijing. Peace demands strength and coordination to prevent a security vacuum and alliance erosion. Glenn Scofield, 38 North, September 22
Soybeans, canola and power: How China turned food into a strategic weapon. Beijing wields oilseed trade to secure prices and extract geopolitical leverage, changing purchases to reward aligned suppliers and punish rivals. Canada’s longtime canola dominance has been hit by a 100% tariff and a 75.8% security deposit, pushing July shipments down 55% to 173,250 tonnes. Australia is resurfacing as an alternative, with COFCO booking 50,000 tonnes for late-2025 delivery. China imported 105 million tonnes of soybeans in 2024, largely from Brazil, while a 23% tariff sidelines US cargoes despite a Q4 seasonal gap that US harvests could fill. Tools include SOE buying, anti-dumping probes, and sector-wide embargoes, as seen after Lithuania’s Taiwan move. Genevieve Donnellon-May, ThinkChina, September 22
The New Iron Curtains of AI: How US and Chinese Rulebooks Are Rewiring Power. Competing rulebooks are fragmenting AI into incompatible zones. The United States extends export controls from chips to model weights and plans cloud KYC, using chokepoints to meter compute and access. China’s filings regime and synthetic-content labeling create operational control over models and outputs while easing some cross-border data flows; compute vouchers and “AI Plus” industrial policy drive nationwide uptake. The EU AI Act imposes staged obligations on bans, general-purpose models, and high-risk use, projecting procedural power through compliance. Corporate policies echo geopolitics, exemplified by Anthropic’s access restrictions. By 2027, firms face tri-jurisdictional compliance and higher costs, with supply chains and research collaboration more brittle. Xiaolong (James) Wang, Sino-Southeast Initiative, September 22
Southeast Asia
Vietnam’s development model is running out of road. Credit-driven growth, public investment, and export reliance now strain stability, with past lending booms fueling inflation, non-performing loans, and a collapsed corporate bond surge. Financial markets remain shallow, private enterprise is dominated by micro firms, and foreign-invested companies generate about 72% of exports, limiting domestic value capture. Fiscal revenues lean on volatile land and excise sources, while looser monetary settings risk bad debt, asset bubbles, dong depreciation, and thin reserves. A rising ICOR signals falling capital efficiency. The path forward moves from speed to resilience by strengthening domestic demand, deepening markets, and prioritizing a competitive private sector over state control. Cuong Minh Nguyen, East Asia Forum, September 22
How Police Brutality Fuels Indonesians’ Distrust. Recurring excessive force by Indonesia’s police, including lethal tear gas use, baton assaults, torture, and due-process violations, has normalized brutality and eroded confidence in law enforcement. Recent cases include the death of 21-year-old Affan Kurniawan, protests yielding ten deaths, 1,042 injuries, 3,337 arrests, and around 20 missing persons, and the 2022 Kanjuruhan stadium disaster with over 135 fatalities. A 2023 LSI survey shows police trust trailing other agencies at 64%. Budget growth prioritizes equipment over accountability, while a draft Police Bill risks creating a “superbody.” Remedies proposed: independent civilian oversight with subpoena powers, shelving expansive authorities, dismantling Brimob’s paramilitary role, and reallocating many police functions to specialized civilian bodies. Firda Amalia Putri, and Iim Halimatusa’diyah, FULCRUM, September 23
Oceania
Australia–Japan energy partnership needs a shared story. Australia’s push to anchor hydrogen, ammonia, and green iron projects collides with Japan’s caution and reliance on flexible LNG, revealing a narrative gap that raises sovereign-risk perceptions and stalls capital. Japan’s S+3E doctrine favors staged commitments and fuel optionality, while Australian regulatory shifts on approvals, taxes, and gas strategy unsettle long-horizon investors. The proposed remedy links LNG and green commodities under one framework that stabilizes rules, harmonizes certification, and trades reciprocal anchor rights for durable value, using the NARA Treaty’s 50th anniversary in 2026 to codify commitments and reduce standards and policy risk across decades. Hiroshi Matsushima, East Asia Forum, September 23