Asia Daily: September 23, 2024
News
Noda wins presidential election of main opposition CDP. Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda was elected president of Japan's main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), in a runoff election on September 23. Noda, 67, defeated former CDP President Yukio Edano in the second round of voting, which followed a four-way contest. Current CDP President Kenta Izumi and Lower House member Harumi Yoshida also ran. Noda will serve a three-year term. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is set to elect a new president on September 27. Asahi Shimbun, September 23
Anura Kumara Dissanayake takes oath as Sri Lanka’s next president. Marxist-leaning politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake was sworn in as Sri Lanka’s new president after securing 42.31% of the vote in the country’s latest election. Dissanayake, leader of the People’s Liberation Front (JVP) and the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, vowed to restore public trust in politicians and address the nation’s complex challenges. His victory comes after the economic collapse in 2022 and the ousting of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Dissanayake has pledged to tackle corruption while softening some of his previous Marxist policies. Al Jazeera, September 23
Alice Guo transferred to Pasig City jail. Former Bamban, Tarlac mayor Alice Guo has been moved from the Philippine National Police's Custodial Center in Camp Crame to the Pasig City Jail Female Dormitory. Guo, who was previously held in Quezon City, was transferred under tight security, with her convoy arriving at Pasig Jail at 9:14 a.m. Her detention follows charges related to her time in office, and the move marks a significant step in the legal process. Francis Earl Cueto, The Manila Times, September 23
Kamikawa urges China's Wang to ensure safety of Japan nationals. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa urged Chinese diplomat Wang Yi in New York to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens, especially children, following the fatal stabbing of a Japanese boy in Shenzhen. Kamikawa also requested more details about the incident and the suppression of anti-Japanese online content. Wang described the stabbing as an isolated incident. The talks also covered China's ban on Japanese marine products, which will be gradually lifted following Japan's release of treated Fukushima water. Kyodo News, September 23
Bangladesh army chief pledges support for Yunus' interim government 'come what may'. Bangladesh's army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, vowed to fully support the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus following the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Zaman, who took over shortly before Hasina’s ouster, emphasized the military's backing to help Yunus implement key reforms and restore democracy within 18 months. Amid the aftermath of violent protests, Zaman highlighted the need for judicial, police, and institutional reforms to ensure a free and fair election. Devjyot Ghoshal and Ruma Paul, Reuters, September 23
Kyrgyz-Chinese trade center opened in Xi’an. A new Kyrgyz-Chinese Trade and Economic Cooperation Center was inaugurated in Xi’an, China, covering 1,000 square meters. It will showcase Kyrgyz products and facilitate business meetings. Additionally, a 200-square-meter pavilion featuring Kyrgyz goods was opened for both offline and online sales. Xi’an offered Kyrgyzstan these spaces rent-free for three years. The initiative aims to boost trade, with China-Kyrgyzstan bilateral trade reaching $20 billion in 2023, up 32% from 2022. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, September 23
Four young protesters disappeared after Yangon rally against Myanmar dictatorship. Four protesters who participated in a rally against high commodity prices and military conscription in Yangon have gone missing after being arrested by the junta. The group includes student activists and members of the Youth Strike Committee. Families and supporters fear they are being tortured during interrogation, a common tactic by the military regime. Their whereabouts remain unknown, raising concerns about their safety. The Irrawaddy, September 23
House to pass budget bill this week. The Philippine House of Representatives is set to approve the 2025 General Appropriations Bill on its third and final reading by Wednesday. The proposed national budget stands at ₱6.352 trillion. The bill's passage is expected before Congress takes a recess. Deliberations focused on addressing the country's financial priorities for the upcoming year. Lawmakers are working to ensure that critical sectors receive adequate funding to support economic growth and public services. Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, September 23
Japanese warplanes use flares to warn a Russian spy plane to leave airspace. Japan's fighter jets deployed flares to warn a Russian reconnaissance aircraft that violated its northern airspace on Monday. The Russian Il-38 breached Japanese airspace over Rebun Island three times during a five-hour flight. Japan’s Defense Minister Minoru Kihara linked the incident to recent joint military exercises by Russia and China. Japan lodged a formal protest and vowed to monitor their activities closely. The violation follows growing military cooperation between Russia and China, prompting Japan to strengthen its defenses. Mari Yamaguchi, AP News, September 23
Vietnam’s top leader delivers policy speech at Columbia University. Vietnam’s General Secretary and State President To Lam delivered a speech at Columbia University, highlighting the country's achievements and its role in global affairs. He discussed Vietnam’s progress under Communist Party leadership, its foreign policy of multilateralism, and commitment to tackling global issues like climate change. Lam also underscored the deepening of Vietnam-U.S. ties, emphasizing reconciliation and cooperation across multiple sectors. Vietnam News, September 23
S. Korean military vows 'stern' measures should N. Korea cross the line with balloon campaign. South Korea's military warned of "stern" military actions if North Korea's ongoing trash balloon campaign, which has involved over 5,500 balloons since May, escalates or causes harm to South Korean citizens. The Joint Chiefs of Staff emphasized the potential dangers of the balloons, some of which carry devices that could cause fires. The military condemned the campaign as a "vulgar" provocation and has responded with daily anti-North Korean broadcasts along the border. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, September 23
Uzbek parliament adopts law on undesirable foreigners. Uzbekistan’s Senate approved amendments restricting foreign citizens or stateless persons whose actions threaten the nation’s sovereignty and security. The law targets those provoking interstate or social discord, labeling them "undesirable" and banning their entry for five years. Individuals already residing in Uzbekistan must leave or face deportation. The new law was influenced by similar measures in neighboring countries. Concerns have been raised that it may conflict with international standards on free expression. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, September 23
Global economic activities increasingly viewed through security lens: PM Wong. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong highlighted the growing influence of security concerns on global economic decisions during a speech at Temasek's 50th anniversary dinner. He noted the shift toward protectionism, state interventions, and reconfigured supply chains, driven by superpower tensions. Despite the challenges, Wong emphasized Singapore's resilience and the critical role Temasek plays in its economic future, while stressing the need to maintain trust and reliability in global partnerships. Tang See Kit, Channel News Asia, September 23
Vanuatu trades minister removed from office. Prime Minister Charlot Salwai has dismissed Bob Loughman from his role as Minister for Trades, Tourism, and Ni-Vanuatu Business. The decision, based on the Constitution's provisions, allows the prime minister to appoint and remove cabinet members at any time. Loughman’s removal came after he announced plans to challenge the election of Finance Minister Johnny Koanapo as president of the Vanua’aku Pati. A replacement for Loughman has not yet been named. PINA, September 23
Brazilian officials work with China on details of joining Belt and Road. The Brazilian government has formed an inter-ministerial group to assess the country’s entry into China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its potential impact on U.S. relations, particularly if Donald Trump wins the 2024 election. China expects Brazil to formalize membership during Xi Jinping’s visit in November, but some Brazilian diplomats advise delaying the announcement until after the U.S. election. Lula’s administration is analyzing the benefits of BRI membership, particularly for Brazil’s development strategies. Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post, September 23
Turkmenistan suffers energy-export setback as Turkey opts for new LNG deal. Turkmenistan's efforts to secure a gas swap deal with Turkey have hit a setback, as Ankara signed its third long-term LNG agreement with France’s TotalEnergies. The deal follows earlier contracts with Shell and ExxonMobil, reducing Turkey’s need for Turkmen gas. While discussions for gas imports from Turkmenistan remain, Turkey's growing LNG supplies diminish demand. Azerbaijan may benefit as Turkey could import less gas from Baku, freeing up more supply for Europe. David O'Byrne, Eurasianet, September 23
Top leader meets with leaders of Communist Party USA, left-wing organizations. Vietnam's General Secretary and State President To Lam met with leaders of the Communist Party USA and other left-wing organizations in New York during his visit for the UN General Assembly. The meeting focused on fostering relationships between the two parties, with discussions on post-war reconciliation and sustainable socialist development. Participants, including John McAuliff, praised Vietnam’s growth and its role in promoting peace and cooperation. Vietnam News, September 23
President Jokowi orders cyber force formation: minister. Indonesian President Joko Widodo has directed the creation of a cyber force as the fourth branch of the country’s military to address modern warfare threats. The unit will focus on combating cyberattacks, proxy wars, and disinformation. Coordinating Minister Hadi Tjahjanto highlighted that the force will help secure Indonesia against external threats in the cyber domain. The cyber force is expected to be a crucial component of future military strategy under the incoming administration. Antara News, September 23
China-Laos railway facilitates regional trade surge, handling over 10 million tons of goods. Since its launch in December 2021, the China-Laos Railway has transported over 10 million tons of goods, valued at USD 5.74 billion, as of mid-September 2024. Freight volume surged by 22.8% in the first eight months of 2024, with a diverse array of 3,000 products now transported. The railway has bolstered economic ties between China and ASEAN, while enhancing local industries and job creation in Laos and Thailand. Kheuakham Chanlivong, The Laotian Times, September 23
Japan's support for Ukraine to continue, Kishida tells Zelenskyy. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Japan's full support for Ukraine will continue, despite Kishida stepping down soon. Meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. events in New York, they reaffirmed close coordination between the two countries. Kishida also discussed the Japan External Trade Organization’s upcoming office in Kyiv. Zelenskyy awarded Kishida Ukraine’s highest honor for foreign citizens in recognition of his support. Kyodo News, September 23
Analysis & Opinion
Thailand’s Prime Minister Relies on Family Legacy in Advisory Picks. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has assembled an advisory team primarily composed of figures who served under her father and aunt’s previous governments. Her selections include prominent economists and political veterans such as Supavud Saicheua and Tongthong Chandransu, signaling continuity with her family’s political legacy. While aimed at addressing Thailand’s economic challenges, this reliance on familiar faces raises questions about her ability to bring about political reform. Caleb Mills, The Asia Cable, September 23
Inside China’s Connected Vehicle Road. China is advancing its vehicle-road-cloud integration to transform intelligent transportation. This initiative combines smart vehicles, infrastructure, and cloud computing to improve road safety and energy efficiency. With 20 cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, chosen for pilot programs, the country is building over 30 smart highways. The project will enable autonomous driving systems by integrating roadside sensors and cloud platforms to control traffic and vehicles. Although the investment for equipping roads could reach USD 376 billion, the program aims to have a national impact by 2026. Andrew Stokols, Sinocities, September 22
India Seizes a Small Chance to Make a Big Difference in Africa’s Solar Transformation. India is playing a key role in Africa's solar energy transformation through the International Solar Alliance (ISA), aiming to expand decentralized solar power solutions. This partnership focuses on off-grid solar systems and community solar mini-grids, providing clean energy access to millions across Africa. India's investment in these initiatives promotes sustainable growth, addresses energy access disparities, and supports the continent’s green energy transition. Manish Vaid, Lowy Institute, September 23
Power in Asia: Outliers and Curiosities. The 2024 Asia Power Index reveals surprising insights, such as Singapore ranking higher than Indonesia in overall power despite its smaller size. India, despite its large population, ranks third behind China and the U.S., and South Korea’s cultural influence ranks lower than expected. Meanwhile, North Korea scores high in resilience due to its nuclear deterrence, and the U.S. remains ahead of China in technology. Susannah Patton and Jack Sato, Lowy Institute, September 23
Why Japan Will Not Come to Taiwan’s Rescue. Japan's close ties with Taiwan may not translate into military support in the event of a Chinese invasion. Despite public warmth toward Taiwan, Japan’s pacifist constitution, economic dependence on China, and the limited capacity of its Self-Defense Forces restrict its ability to intervene. While Japan is improving its defense, it is unlikely to engage directly in a Taiwan-China conflict unless existential threats to Japan are involved. Bill Sharp, Asia Times, September 23
The Quad Leaders in Delaware. The Quad Leaders’ Summit in Delaware marked the sixth meeting under President Biden, who spoke on the importance of collaboration among the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India in addressing Indo-Pacific challenges. The leaders reaffirmed their shared commitment to a free and open region, focusing on issues like maritime security, cancer research, and technology cooperation. As U.S. leadership approaches a transition, ensuring continued Quad cooperation remains a priority for all four nations. Sheila A. Smith, Council on Foreign Relations, September 23
Australia Can Encourage China’s Credibility in the CPTPP. Australia has an opportunity to play a key role in shaping China's potential entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). By working closely with Japan, Australia can negotiate clear milestones for Chinese reforms necessary for accession, ensuring that the trade bloc’s standards are upheld. This could enhance China’s credibility and lock it into a rules-based international trading system, strengthening economic stability in the region. Shiro Armstrong, East Asia Forum, September 23
Honing the PLA’s Capacity for Information Warfare Is Not Without Precedence. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has a long history of integrating information warfare into its military strategy, emphasizing cyber and psychological operations. Recent developments in the PLA's doctrine focus on achieving information dominance by targeting adversaries’ information systems through joint operations that span land, sea, air, and cyber domains. The PLA’s Strategic Support Force (SSF) plays a central role, aligning with broader objectives of improving China's military capabilities in an era of "informationized" warfare. James Char and Chia Shimin, East Asia Forum, September 23
Will Bad Times Make for Good Policy in China? China’s ongoing economic challenges, marked by its third major deflationary episode in decades, demand urgent policy interventions. Previous deflationary shocks, like the ones following the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, were resolved through dramatic economic reforms. However, the current leadership under Xi Jinping faces a dilemma in shifting from an investment-driven model to one focused on consumption. While supply-side reforms and fiscal stimulus targeting households could help, internal political incentives and international pressures complicate the process. Reform delays may strain relations with Western powers, who may view China’s economic moves as a threat to their own industrial policies. Joining trade agreements like the CPTPP could offer China leverage for necessary reforms, but both domestic and geopolitical barriers remain significant. East Asia Forum, September 23
Taiwan’s Missing Voice at the UN’s Future Summit. Despite Taiwan's critical role in the global semiconductor industry, it remains excluded from the UN’s Summit for the Future due to ongoing political tensions with China. As the world leader in chip production, Taiwan’s absence weakens the summit’s discussions on technology and international cooperation. Efforts by several nations to include Taiwan have been blocked by the UN’s deference to Beijing, limiting Taiwan's global participation despite its technological prominence. Caleb Mills, Geopolitical Monitor, September 23
Will Indian Courts Tame Wikipedia? Recent court cases in India have raised concerns about Wikipedia’s operations in the country. A judge has threatened to ban the platform if it fails to disclose user identities in defamation suits involving prominent figures and organizations like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and ANI. This legal challenge is part of broader efforts by India to regulate online platforms under its 2021 Information Technology Rules, which mandate accountability and content moderation. Pete Hunt, The Diplomat, September 23
The Asia-Pacific and the Israel-Lebanon Flashpoint: The UNIFIL Variable.
UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force stationed in southern Lebanon, faces renewed challenges as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalate. Despite a heavy Indo-Pacific contribution to the force, including troops from Indonesia and India, the mission remains constrained by its mandate and complex Lebanese politics. While UNIFIL helps prevent immediate conflict, its long-term effectiveness is limited by Hezbollah’s power and regional instability. Kenneth Houston, The Diplomat, September 21
India’s Technology Engagement Strategy: Beyond the Quad. India's global tech strategy focuses on pragmatic partnerships beyond the Quad, emphasizing self-reliance and strategic autonomy. Through initiatives like the I2U2, BRICS, and G-20, India seeks to boost its tech sector while balancing geopolitical pressures from China and the West. Domestic programs such as the Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) and Skill India align with these international efforts, aiming to make India a key player in emerging technologies. Trisha Ray, The Diplomat, September 23
How Beijing Is Preparing for America's Next President. Regardless of the 2024 U.S. election outcome, China anticipates ongoing friction over trade, technology, and Taiwan. Beijing is preparing for long-term rivalry with the U.S. by coordinating economic, military, and technological strategies. As the U.S. focuses on maintaining its global influence, China seeks to bolster its resilience against American pressure, viewing future relations as a persistent challenge. Yu Jie, The Japan Times, September 23
Vietnam’s New Helmsman: What to Expect from To Lam? To Lam has swiftly consolidated power after assuming dual leadership roles as Vietnam’s General Secretary and President. His early focus has been on economic reforms, anti-corruption efforts, and balancing regional interests within the Communist Party. Domestically, Lam emphasizes high-quality growth and private sector support, while in foreign policy, he maintains Vietnam's “bamboo diplomacy” of balancing relations between China and the U.S. Lam’s leadership will likely define Vietnam’s trajectory in the coming years. Nguyen Khac Giang, Fulcrum, September 23
The Influx of Rohingya Should Be Prevented by Establishing a Safe Zone and Humanitarian Corridor in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. To address the Rohingya crisis, establishing a humanitarian corridor and safe zone in Myanmar's Rakhine State is proposed. This would enable the safe return of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh and protect them from ongoing violence. Such measures, supported by international actors, could alleviate pressure on Bangladesh and contribute to long-term stability in the region. The Geopolitics, September 23