China
Xi-Trump call sparks hopes for stability but worries linger over tariff threats, Taiwan. A phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump signaled potential stabilization in U.S.-China relations, with agreements on TikTok and plans for upcoming summits. However, tensions remain over Taiwan, South China Sea disputes, and tariff threats tied to China’s Russian oil imports, raising doubts about long-term diplomatic progress. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, September 20
U.S. TikTok deal coming soon with ‘tight control’ of board, algorithm: White House. The U.S. will gain majority ownership and control of TikTok’s American operations, with six of seven board seats held by Americans and Oracle overseeing data and algorithm governance. ByteDance's stake will be capped below 20 percent under the agreement, which is expected to be finalized within days. Frank Chen, South China Morning Post, September 2
Japan
Japan PM contender Koizumi vows wage hikes to counter inflation. Shinjiro Koizumi pledged to shift Japan’s economic focus from deflation to inflation management by boosting wages and productivity. He proposed cutting gasoline taxes, increasing household tax exemptions, and raising average wages by 1 million yen by 2030. He also called for coordinated fiscal and monetary policy and immediate stimulus if elected. Leika Kihara, Reuters, September 19
LDP presidential race to officially start on Monday. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will formally launch its leadership contest on Monday, beginning a 12-day campaign ahead of the October 4 vote. This marks the first LDP presidential election since the party and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in both houses of parliament in consecutive elections. The Japan Times, September 21
South Korea
South Korea's President Lee says U.S. investment demands would spark financial crisis. President Lee Jae Myung warned that accepting U.S. investment conditions without safeguards could destabilize South Korea’s economy to 1997-crisis levels. He cited unresolved trade deal terms, objected to Trump administration immigration raids, and expressed concern over rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with North Korea, Russia, and China. Josh Smith, Hyunjoo Jin, Heejung Jung, Reuters, September 21
Ex-president Yoon files for bail amid insurrection trial. Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has applied for bail, citing health issues and the need to prepare his legal defense. He faces charges of obstruction of duties and abuse of authority linked to a brief declaration of martial law in December. He has been detained since July. Woo Jae-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, September 21
North Korea
North Korea can talk to US if it stops insisting on denuclearization, Kim says. Kim Jong Un stated that North Korea is open to dialogue with the United States if Washington abandons its demands for denuclearization. He criticized recent diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and South Korea as disingenuous, citing ongoing threats and a phased denuclearization proposal as evidence of hostile intentions. Jack Kim, Reuters, September 21
N. Korea keeps mum on outcome of key parliamentary session. North Korea has yet to release information on the outcome of a Supreme People’s Assembly session held on September 20, prompting speculation of delays or extensions. The session was expected to address laws on grain, intellectual property, and city management, and potentially review a constitutional revision labeling South Korea as its primary foe. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, September 21
Thailand
Pheu Thai won't join People's Party's opposition bloc. Pheu Thai has declined to join the People's Party-led opposition, choosing to act independently in parliament. Secretary-general Sorawong Thienthong cited principled opposition to the minority government’s formation and criticized the PP’s role in ousting the previous Pheu Thai-led administration. He acknowledged public disappointment but emphasized the challenges of governing within a coalition. Bangkok Post, September 21
PP questions BJT absence at charter talks. The People's Party criticized the Bhumjaithai Party for missing a key House meeting on a proposed amendment to Section 256, which would establish a new constitution drafting assembly. Despite the absence, BJT reaffirmed its commitment to the timeline agreed in its memorandum with PP, including House dissolution by January and a potential referendum in early 2026. Bangkok Post, September 20
Vietnam
Politburo advances decentralisation reforms for two-tier local governance. Vietnam's Politburo has endorsed new directives to improve decentralisation and delegation within its two-tier governance model. The National Assembly was tasked with issuing legal frameworks, while ministries must review and refine sectoral legislation. Local officials are required to inspect commune-level operations to ensure effective policy execution. Vietnam News, September 21
Philippines
Duterte worried about corruption in PH – VP Sara. Vice President Sara Duterte said former president Rodrigo Duterte expressed concern over widespread corruption in the Philippines during a call from detention in The Hague, where he faces charges related to his drug war. She noted her sister sends him daily news updates through his lawyer. Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, September 21
Duterte’s defense hands ICC prosecutors more evidence. Former president Rodrigo Duterte’s legal team submitted 30 items of evidence to the International Criminal Court this month as part of the pretrial process concerning alleged crimes against humanity during his drug war. The disclosure follows a request to delay proceedings due to questions about Duterte’s fitness to stand trial. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, September 20
Singapore
Singapore, Egypt agree ‘timely’ to explore feasibility of a free trade agreement. Singapore and Egypt have agreed to explore a free trade agreement, aiming to deepen economic cooperation and leverage their strategic advantages. The move was announced during President Tharman Shanmugaratnam’s state visit to Cairo, where seven MOUs were signed in sectors including healthcare and food security. Bilateral trade in services topped $1.3 billion in 2023. Samuel Devaraj, The Straits Times, September 20
Taiwan
Trump intelligence advisers met with Taiwanese official, sources say. Members of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board held a private meeting with Taiwan’s top U.S. envoy Alexander Yui, marking one of the highest-level exchanges during Trump’s second term. The PIAB, chaired by Devin Nunes and gaining influence amid National Security Council downsizing, has emerged as a key foreign policy channel. Gram Slattery and Trevor Hunnicutt, Reuters, September 19
Differences over ties with China highlight KMT chair hopeful debate. Kuomintang chairperson candidates expressed varied views on China, with Chang Ya-chung calling for reinstating unification guidelines, while Lo Chih-chiang and Cheng Li-wun backed the “1992 consensus.” All opposed Taiwan independence. Public rejection of the consensus and recent election losses underscore the party’s struggle to balance cross-strait policy with voter sentiment. Wang Cheng-chung and Sean Lin, Focus Taiwan, September 21
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan and Kenya establish diplomatic relations. Uzbekistan and Kenya formally established diplomatic ties with a communique signed in New York by Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov and Kenya’s Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi. Saidov highlighted Kenya’s economic dynamism and potential for technological cooperation. Kenya becomes the 164th country to establish diplomatic relations with Uzbekistan. Gazeta, September 21
East Asia
The Foreign Policy Significance of China’s “Anti-Involution” Campaign. “Neijuan” shifted from a sociological term to official policy focus, with leaders warning that cut-throat price competition depresses profits, weakens consumption, and heightens deflation risk. Regulators signal tougher Pricing Law enforcement, aiming to curb giveaway tactics and stabilize sectors. External dynamics matter: Europe’s concerns over cheap Chinese green tech, ASEAN unease about displacement of local producers, and Beijing’s bid to project responsible governance through initiatives like the GGI all shape the crackdown. Calibrating output, encouraging joint ventures, and sharing capabilities are framed as tools to reduce frictions while sustaining manufacturing strength. The episode also illustrates policy pragmatism and interest-based persuasion within China’s system. Brian Wong, CHINA US Focus, September 19
Trump, Xi, and the Making of a Presidential Phone Call. President Donald Trump’s second call this year with Xi Jinping followed intricate choreography: Beijing prefers Washington to request calls, agendas are negotiated, and translation mode affects tempo. Preparation spans talking points, interagency inputs, and late-night staff contacts. Reported topics included trade, fentanyl, the Ukraine war, a potential TikTok arrangement, and plans for an APEC-sidelines meeting, with no indication Taiwan surfaced. Readouts diverged in tone, and no concessions on tariffs or export controls were evident. Likely participants included Wang Yi and He Lifeng on China’s side and U.S. principals such as the secretaries of State and Treasury equivalents, USTR, and core White House staff. Longer duration suggested constructive engagement ahead of further diplomacy. Michael Froman, Council on Foreign Relations, September 19
Back to the Future. World War II cooperation between China and the United States created durable affinities that later fractured under Cold War politics and postwar decisions such as immunity for Unit 731 personnel. Current friction spans tariffs, technology controls on firms like Huawei and SMIC, and expanded U.S. security activity from AUKUS to frequent naval transits, while Beijing asserts sovereignty and decries encirclement. Milestones including Nixon’s 1972 visit, normalization in 1979, and China’s 2001 WTO entry rebuilt ties yet left strategic distrust. The 80th-anniversary commemorations of victory over Japan underscore sacrifice and shared history. The recommended path stresses earned trust, non–zero-sum competition, and cooperation on transnational risks to prevent great-power conflict in a nuclear, interdependent era. Sujit Kumar Datta, CHINA US Focus, September 19
Inside Xi Jinping’s push to reshape global governance. Xi’s Global Governance Initiative seeks broad reforms that elevate developing countries’ representation, framed around sovereign equality, international law, multilateralism, a people-centred approach, and “real actions.” The agenda departs from Hu Jintao’s narrower economic focus, adds stronger impetus, and positions China to lead alongside the Global South, with or without a U.S. role. Implementation moves include leveraging SCO and BRICS and pairing rhetoric with resources, such as grants, loans, skills programs, and training opportunities. Critics question credibility, citing non-condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, South China Sea assertions, and concerns over trade impacts in Southeast Asia. Beijing aims to project stability while building long-term leadership amid systemic flux. Lye Liang Fook, ThinkChina, September 19
Southeast Asia
Recalibrating Southeast Asian trade policy in a world of economic fragmentation. Escalating U.S.–China rivalry is reconfiguring supply chains, creating openings and hazards for ASEAN. Post-“Liberation Day” tariffs, Washington’s bilateral deals with strict transshipment clauses trade lower rates for onerous origin proof, risking fragmentation of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership networks. China’s export drop to the United States coincides with an 18 percent rise to ASEAN, while ASEAN’s shipments to the United States outpace China’s early in 2025. Reliance on Chinese inputs remains high, complicating relocation economics. ASEAN responses vary: Vietnam’s defensive compliance, Indonesia and the Philippines’ reform-oriented realignment, and Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand’s quiet rerouting. Recommended moves: resist discriminatory measures collectively, prioritize multilateral accords, accelerate domestic reforms, and position for China’s shift toward consumption. Riandy Laksono and Dandy Rafitrandi, East Asia Forum, September 20
Strategic De-Escalation in the South China Sea. The Philippines deepens security ties with Australia and other partners amid intensified incidents near Scarborough Shoal, including a PLAN-CCG collision during a pursuit of a Philippine Coast Guard vessel, and subsequent deployments by U.S. and Chinese forces. Expanded exercises and prospective Australian access to multiple Philippine sites mirror an EDCA-style arrangement. Despite China’s overwhelming capability edge, both Beijing and Manila are urged to pursue confidence-building steps: revive hotlines and notification mechanisms, avoid warship deployments and large drills, and keep contests within coast guard channels. Manila should calibrate statements on Taiwan while preparing defenses; Beijing should recognize smaller states’ balancing needs. With Manila chairing ASEAN next year, accelerating Code of Conduct talks is presented as the practical off-ramp. Richard Javad Heydarian, CHINA US Focus, September 19
Outlook for Agriculture and ASEAN’s Role in Southeast Asia’s Food Security. Agriculture underpins regional livelihoods and trade yet faces weak investment, ageing farmers, climate stress, and volatile geopolitics. The sector contributed 9.8% of ASEAN GDP in 2022 while staple output growth stagnated below 1.3% despite a 16% rise in farmland. Governments (mostly spending under 10% of budgets on agriculture) lag on adaptation even as risks mount: rice yields fall about 10% per 1°C, cropland loss could reach 10% in four states by 2028, and water demand may exceed supply by 40% by 2030. Proposed responses include climate-smart practices, biotech and digital tools, US$100B yearly smallholder finance, stronger supply chains, and an ASEAN FAF Research and Policy Support Centre aligned to Vision 2045 and the 2026–2030 plan. Elyssa Ludher and Paul Teng, FULCRUM, September 19
Can Filipinos Transcend Polarised Politics to Protest Against Grand Corruption? Youth-led uprisings in Indonesia and Nepal highlight regional anger over inequality and graft, yet the Philippines has not matched that street momentum despite President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s July 18 disclosure of alleged US$17.5 billion siphoned from flood control funds. Public reaction concentrates online as households prioritize subsistence and navigate a Marcos–Duterte feud that fractures information flows and splinters demonstrations, including multiple actions slated for September 21. Business, religious, and campus groups issue condemnations with limited coordination. The stakes include eroding institutional trust, weaker reforms, and investment losses. Proposed remedies include activating an Independent Commission on Infrastructure, restoring SALN access, using forfeiture laws, and directing a whole-of-government push. A broad, principle-based campaign could unify a divided society. Alvin Ang and Aries A. Arugay, FULCRUM, September 19
Oceania
Submarines could anchor an Australia–Japan pact. Australia and Japan are urged to formalize a defense alliance centered on a co-developed, long-range conventional submarine to offset U.S. shipbuilding delays and China’s naval surge. Canberra’s August 2025 decision to buy 11 upgraded Mogami-class frigates from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries signals deep interoperability and industrial fit. A jointly designed non-nuclear boat, integrated with U.S. systems, would patrol the Indo-Pacific, complement AUKUS, and hedge against uncertainty over Virginia-class supply. Tokyo’s changing posture under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, rising defense outlays, and counterstrike acquisition increase feasibility. The program would strengthen deterrence, diversify dependencies, and anchor a broader pact with joint planning and training to safeguard a free and open region. Alastair Walton and Jake Thrupp, East Asia Forum, September 20