Asia Daily: September 20, 2024
News
Japan and China reach deal over Fukushima water release and move closer to resolving seafood ban. Japan and China have reached a mutual understanding regarding the discharge of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean. China will collaborate with Japan in monitoring the wastewater and gradually ease its ban on Japanese seafood imports. This marks a potential breakthrough, though specific timelines for lifting the ban remain unclear. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida emphasized the water’s safety, urging for the immediate removal of restrictions. Mari Yamaguchi and Christopher Bodeen, AP News, September 20
Malaysian king tells Xi Jinping it will work with China to keep peace in South China Sea. Malaysia’s King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar pledged cooperation with China to maintain peace in the South China Sea during his visit to Beijing, marking 50 years of bilateral relations. The two leaders discussed projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, including infrastructure, trade, and technological collaboration. Xi Jinping emphasized China’s interest in joint projects, while Malaysia committed to enhancing regional partnerships as it assumes the ASEAN chairmanship in 2025. Liu Zhen and Cyril Ip, South China Morning Post, September 20
Uzbekistan to head CIS Interstate Space Council. Uzbekistan has been appointed to lead the CIS Interstate Space Council for 2024-2025, with Shukhrat Kadirov, head of the Uzbekcosmos agency, elected as chairman. The decision was made during the council’s fifth meeting in Tashkent. Kadirov proposed expanding cooperation in space education and initiating joint projects, while the council aims to coordinate efforts in space technologies and deepen ties within international organizations like the UN. Uzbekistan recently joined the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, September 20
Philippine senator won't rule out ex-mayor Alice Guo is a Chinese spy. Senator Risa Hontiveros, leading an investigation into Alice Guo, former mayor of Bamban, suggested she would not dismiss the possibility of Guo’s involvement in espionage. Guo faces charges of graft for allegedly allowing Chinese criminal syndicates to operate offshore gambling. Her case is part of a broader investigation into transnational crime and its ties to Chinese entities. Guo denies all allegations, including being a Chinese spy. Mikhail Flores, Reuters, September 20
Top leader’s working trip to U.S. holds great significance: ambassador. Vietnamese Ambassador to the U.S., Nguyen Quoc Dung, noted the significant impact of the late Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s recent trip to the United States. The visit marked a key step in advancing Vietnam-U.S. relations after the two nations upgraded their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Discussions focused on boosting economic cooperation, trade, and security between the countries, with both sides seeking to strengthen collaboration across various sectors. Vietnam News, September 20
Myanmar junta counteroffensives failing across country: analysts. Analysts report that the Myanmar military junta’s counteroffensives against resistance forces are faltering nationwide. Despite launching numerous operations, the junta has struggled to regain control over territories held by ethnic armed groups and People's Defense Forces (PDFs). The resistance forces have intensified attacks, successfully holding strategic areas and gaining support from local populations. Analysts suggest the junta's failures are due to insufficient manpower, low morale, and lack of coordination. Hein Htoo Zan, The Irrawaddy, September 19
China gives 200 million yuan grant aid to Kyrgyzstan. China has provided Kyrgyzstan with a grant of 200 million yuan (approximately $27.4 million) to support the country’s economic development. This aid agreement was formalized during a meeting between Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov and Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the 2023 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. The grant will be used for infrastructure projects and strengthening economic cooperation between the two countries. This financial assistance is part of China’s ongoing efforts to enhance ties with Central Asian nations. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, September 19
S. Korea, U.S. to hold regular defense talks to discuss deterrence against N.K. threats. South Korea and the U.S. will hold the 25th Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) in Seoul next week. The two-day talks, led by South Korea's Deputy Minister Cho Chang-rae and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary Anka Lee, will focus on enhancing deterrence against North Korean threats, as well as evolving their security alliance through technological collaboration and strengthening ties with like-minded nations. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, September 20
Philippine senator says China should do more to help fight cybercrime gangs. Philippine Senator Risa Hontiveros urged China to increase efforts against Chinese-run illegal online gambling syndicates operating in Southeast Asia, often using forced labor. These syndicates run scams such as romance fraud and illegal gambling, undermining the rule of law. While China has aided in some crackdowns, Hontiveros stressed the need for stronger international cooperation to end these operations. She also highlighted concerns about potential espionage risks. Jim Gomez, AP News, September 20
Philippines eyes future missile launchers purchase, to retain U.S. Typhon system. The Philippines plans to acquire mid-range missile systems and will retain the U.S.-deployed Typhon system for military training, with no set timeline for its withdrawal. Despite Chinese objections, National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano emphasized the importance of the missile system in strengthening the country's military amid rising tensions in the South China Sea. The Typhon system, capable of striking Chinese targets, was first deployed during joint U.S.-Philippine drills in April. Karen Lema, Reuters, September 20
Prabowo pays courtesy visit to Philippines president. Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto visited Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to strengthen defense cooperation between the two nations. The meeting, held in Manila, focused on enhancing bilateral ties, particularly in defense and security, amid regional challenges. Prabowo also met with his Filipino counterpart, Gilberto Teodoro Jr., discussing collaboration in military exercises, intelligence sharing, and counterterrorism. Antara News, September 20
Vietnam's deputy defense minister visits N. Korea to discuss cooperation. Vietnam's deputy defense minister, Senior Lt. Gen. Hoang Xuan Chien, met with North Korean officials in Pyongyang to discuss strengthening bilateral defense cooperation. Chien met with his North Korean counterpart, Kim Min-seop, to explore collaboration in areas like military training, technology, defense industries, and high-level personnel exchanges. A day later, he met North Korea's defense minister, Kang Sun-nam. This visit is part of North Korea’s recent efforts to renew diplomatic engagement with friendly nations. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, September 20.
China to ‘gradually’ lift ban on Japanese seafood imports. After banning Japanese seafood due to the Fukushima nuclear plant’s wastewater release, China has agreed to resume imports gradually. Following extensive talks, both countries will collaborate under the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure food safety and monitor the discharge's impact. While there is no immediate end to the ban, imports will resume once regulatory standards are met. This decision follows China’s repeated expression of concerns over cross-border nuclear safety issues. William Zheng and Zhuang Pinghui, South China Morning Post, September 20
BOJ keeps rates on hold, Ueda tempers another hike speculation. The Bank of Japan held interest rates steady, with Governor Kazuo Ueda indicating no rush for further hikes, citing more time to assess economic conditions. This decision weakened the yen to the 143 level against the dollar. The BOJ had surprised markets with a July rate hike to 0.25%, but Ueda’s comments suggested any additional hikes could be delayed until next year. Market instability and yen fluctuations remain key concerns. Kyodo News, September 20
Kyrgyzstan asks IAEA for $45 million for nuclear waste remediation. Kyrgyzstan has requested $45 million from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to manage and remediate nuclear waste in the Mailuu-Suu region, a former Soviet uranium mining area. The country's Ministry of Emergency Situations emphasized the environmental and health risks posed by the radioactive waste. The funding would support the cleanup of several waste sites, many of which are at risk of contaminating the surrounding water systems. Kyrgyzstan has previously collaborated with international organizations for remediation efforts but needs additional support to complete the project. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, September 18
Sri Lanka's Marxist-leaning Dissanayake promises change as his popularity soars. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna (JVP), has surged in popularity ahead of Sri Lanka's presidential election. Known for his anti-corruption stance and welfare promises, he currently leads polls with 36% support. Despite JVP’s controversial history with past insurrections, Dissanayake has focused on economic reform and addressing the country’s financial crisis. He presents himself as a candidate of change, challenging political dynasties in Sri Lanka. Sudipto Ganguly and Uditha Jayasinghe, Reuters, September 20
Prosecutors to make sentencing demand for opposition leader over alleged falsehood during election. Prosecutors are set to request a sentence for Lee Jae-myung, leader of South Korea’s Democratic Party, over accusations of making false statements during the 2022 presidential election. Lee allegedly lied about his involvement in a controversial land development project while serving as mayor of Seongnam. The Seoul Central District Court will hear final statements and is expected to deliver a verdict next month. Lee has denied the charges, claiming political motivation. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, September 20
China-Laos Railway handles more than 10 million tons of goods since opening. The China-Laos Railway has transported over 10 million tons of goods since its inauguration on December 3, 2021, with a total value of 40.77 billion yuan (US$5.76 billion). In the first eight months of 2024, freight volume rose 22.8 percent year-on-year, reaching 3.58 million tons. The railway has significantly boosted trade, particularly in mechanical, electrical, and agricultural goods, benefiting economies in Laos, Thailand, and China. Experts expect further collaboration in digital and green economies at the upcoming China-ASEAN Expo. Vientiane Times, September 20
Analysis & Opinion
Quad leaders trade symbolism over substance. The recent Quad meeting prioritized symbolic unity over meaningful actions, with changing leadership across member nations potentially affecting future efforts. India’s ties to Russia and other geopolitical tensions have shown divisions among the Quad nations, despite shared goals like technology and security cooperation. While practical objectives such as regional stability are discussed, they are often managed by lower-level officials, questioning the need for frequent leader-level summits. The Quad’s challenge is balancing symbolic diplomacy with substantive outcomes. Daniel Flitton, Lowy Institute, September 20
Why US-China bipolarity is good for Asia. US-China bipolarity provides stability in Asia by preventing either power from dominating the region outright. This balance reduces the likelihood of conflicts like those seen in Europe or the Middle East. Despite territorial disputes, both powers’ presence deters regional escalation. Non-aligned Asian countries benefit from this bipolar structure, maintaining flexibility without fully committing to either side, preserving regional stability. A change toward US primacy would destabilize this balance. Hervé Lemahieu, Lowy Institute, September 20
China on the horns of a Fed rate cut dilemma. China faces a policy dilemma as it considers following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The People’s Bank of China must balance a rising yuan, which threatens exports, against the need to avoid further reducing bank profit margins. With Chinese banks already facing declining net interest margins, any easing could worsen their financial state, and complicate efforts to stabilize the economy while supporting exports. Jeff Pao, Asia Times, September 20
Japan leadership scramble a risk for Korea relations. Japan's leadership race could impact relations with South Korea, as the next prime minister may not sustain Fumio Kishida's recent efforts to improve bilateral ties. Candidates like Shinjiro Koizumi and Sanae Takaichi pose risks, given their controversial stances on historical issues that strain relations with Korea. Others, like Shigeru Ishiba, advocate for stronger ties. The outcome of Japan's election could either preserve the current momentum or reverse progress. Daniel Sneider, Asia Times, September 20
How Prabowo Will Manage His Predecessor and His History as President of Indonesia. Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s president-elect, is expected to take a strongman approach reminiscent of the Suharto era. He will likely maintain ties with his predecessor, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), while focusing on foreign policy, investment, and social welfare. However, there are concerns that his presidency may further erode democratic institutions and human rights in Indonesia, as Prabowo and Jokowi share a disregard for the rule of law. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, September 20
This Weekend’s Leaders Summit Brings Prospects for a More Sustainable and Useful Quad. The upcoming Quad Leaders Summit aims to strengthen the group’s long-term sustainability by moving beyond its anti-China image. Cooperation on issues like climate change and healthcare, including efforts to reduce cervical cancer in the Indo-Pacific, are on the agenda. The Quad is also expanding its outreach through initiatives like the Quad Fellowship. While military cooperation remains central, the group’s success depends on broader, non-military collaboration to retain regional credibility. Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Council on Foreign Relations, September 20
China’s mediation diplomacy hits a roadblock in Africa. China’s Global Security Initiative, launched in 2022, faces difficulties in Africa, particularly in Niger where its oil investments are threatened by regional instability. The July 2023 coup in Niger and subsequent tensions with Benin have hindered progress on a crucial oil pipeline. China’s mediation efforts, led by its private sector, have not been fully effective, further complicated by terrorism and internal conflicts in Niger. This situation shows China's challenges in balancing economic and security interests in Africa. Samir Bhattacharya, East Asia Forum, September 21
Kashmir to remain a thorn in the side of India–Pakistan relations. The sovereignty dispute over Kashmir has been a major source of conflict between India and Pakistan since 1947, leading to wars and frequent skirmishes. Recent tensions include an increase in attacks in 2024 and tit-for-tat allegations between both nations. While India accuses Pakistan of supporting insurgencies, Pakistan condemns India for human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir. Diplomatic efforts have historically failed, with the last significant attempt being the 2001 Agra summit. The geopolitical rivalry between India and China also complicates any future India–Pakistan dialogue, as Pakistan becomes more reliant on China economically. Despite Pakistan's need to resolve its economic struggles, the chances of meaningful progress on the Kashmir issue remain slim. Muhammad Saad Ul Haque, East Asia Forum, September 20
The BRICS Challenge to the G7 Established International Order. The BRICS group, led by China, is challenging the G7's established international order through initiatives like an independent economic system, an AI governance framework, and military coalitions. These efforts could shift global power dynamics, especially in critical sectors like energy and AI governance, potentially undermining US-led policies. To counter this, the G7 must strengthen trade, develop AI standards, and enhance military cooperation with key BRICS members like India. Maximilian G. Mooradian, Foreign Policy Research Institute, September 20
Voters Show Up in Record Numbers to Kick Off Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections. The first phase of Jammu and Kashmir's assembly elections, held on September 18, 2024, saw a strong voter turnout of over 61%, the highest in a decade. Constituencies in both the Jammu and Kashmir regions participated. Key issues include the detention of local youths, unemployment, and ongoing militarization, with regional parties seeking to restore the area’s special status. This is the first election since the 2019 revocation of Jammu and Kashmir's autonomy. Abrar Fayaz, The Diplomat, September 20
How Water Scarcity Threatens Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industry. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, a global leader in chip manufacturing, faces great risks from water scarcity due to its reliance on vast amounts of water for production. Climate change and seasonal droughts exacerbate the island's already limited freshwater supply. Despite efforts to manage water usage and increase recycling, the semiconductor sector's growing demands, coupled with irregular rainfall, make long-term sustainability challenging. Addressing this issue is crucial for maintaining Taiwan’s top position in global chip production. Kevin Zhang, The Diplomat, September 19
To secure peace in the Indo-Pacific, include Taiwan in the U.N. system. Taiwan's importance in global supply chains and its role in the Indo-Pacific make its inclusion in the U.N. system vital for regional stability. As China intensifies its actions against Taiwan, global leaders have stressed the need to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait. Despite this, the U.N. has yet to take concrete steps to address the challenges posed by China's expansionism or formally engage Taiwan. Lin Chia-lung, The Japan Times, September 20
Cambodia Has Not Tilted Away from China. Despite recent perceptions of Cambodia aligning more with the West, its relations with China remain strong. Cambodia has maintained a diversified foreign policy, backing the West on the Ukraine issue while solidifying its ties with Beijing through infrastructure projects and military cooperation. The close Sino-Cambodian relationship shows Phnom Penh’s balancing act between major powers without fully tilting away from China. Khath Bunthorn and Chanrith Ngin, Fulcrum, September 20
Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy as a Model for Stability in an Unstable World. Kazakhstan's balanced, multi-vector foreign policy has enabled it to maintain stability amid global power rivalries. By fostering relationships with diverse actors like Russia, China, the U.S., and the EU, the country avoids being drawn into major power conflicts. Kazakhstan’s role in facilitating regional peace, including its mediation efforts in conflicts like Syria and the Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions, displays its diplomatic potential as a stabilizing force in an increasingly multipolar world. Michael Rossi, The Geopolitics, September 20