China
China backs Venezuela, warns U.S. against ‘bullying’ after second deadly sea raid. China expressed solidarity with Venezuela following two U.S. military strikes on suspected drug boats, calling Washington’s actions coercive and dangerous. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil said China’s support affirms Caracas’ sovereignty. Beijing criticized the U.S. for provoking conflict and emphasized Latin America’s right to independent partnerships. Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post, September 18
Southeast Asian visitors power growth in visa-free arrivals in China. Visa-free entries into China surged over 50% in the first eight months of 2025, with Southeast Asian nationals accounting for the majority of the 15.89 million arrivals. More than 9 million ASEAN citizens entered without visas, including 150,000 Malaysians. China has expanded visa-free access to boost post-pandemic travel. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, September 18
Japan
Japan’s fiscal dove Takaichi joins race for leadership of ruling party. Sanae Takaichi announced her candidacy to replace outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, positioning herself as a frontrunner alongside Shinjiro Koizumi. Known for opposing Bank of Japan rate hikes, Takaichi supports higher public spending. Other contenders include Yoshimasa Hayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, and Takayuki Kobayashi. Mariko Katsumura and Satoshi Sugiyama, Reuters, September 18
Agriculture minister Koizumi most favored for LDP chief, poll finds. Shinjiro Koizumi leads as the top choice to head Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, with 23.8% support in a Jiji Press poll. Sanae Takaichi followed with 21%, while Yoshimasa Hayashi and Toshimitsu Motegi tied for third. Inflation remains a key concern, with tax cuts favored over cash handouts. The Japan Times, September 18
South Korea
South Korea should side with China as bulwark against ‘rampant’ bullying in trade: Wang Yi. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged South Korea to join China in opposing trade protectionism and unilateral bullying, while calling for stronger cooperation and mutual trust. His remarks came during talks with South Korean counterpart Cho Hyun in Beijing, amid evolving U.S.-South Korea tariff negotiations. Vanessa Cai and Fan Chen, South China Morning Post, September 18
S. Korea, U.S. begin working-level talks on swift launch of visa working group: Seoul. South Korea and the U.S. launched talks to improve visa systems for Korean workers after over 300 were detained at a factory site in Georgia. The two sides are preparing a working group and Seoul formed a task force to address systemic visa issues. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, September 18
North Korea
N. Korea’s early disclosure of Hwasong-20 ICBM apparently aimed at putting pressure on U.S. North Korea revealed its Hwasong-20 ICBM earlier than planned, likely to pressure Washington and highlight unity with China and Russia. The warhead and solid-fuel engine were publicly shown, despite the missile being in early development. A test or parade appearance may follow on October 10. Kim Hyun-soo, Yonhap News Agency, September 18
N. Korea’s currency plunges after Kim Jong Un’s China visit. North Korea’s won fell sharply following Kim Jong Un’s return from Beijing, with Pyongyang’s won-dollar rate dropping 28.6% in two weeks amid speculation over Chinese investment. Despite the currency’s decline, food prices continued rising, and experts warned the shift was driven by sentiment, not confirmed capital inflows. Seulkee Jang, Daily NK, September 18.
Thailand
Dissolution timeframe confirmed. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced the House of Representatives will be dissolved four months after the government's policy statement is delivered to parliament. The move aligns with a coalition agreement and signals a possible early election. Anutin also faced criticism for appointing ministers previously linked to corruption. Mongkol Bangprapa and Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, September 18
Natthaphong insists People’s Party will hold Anutin government accountable under MOA. Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut pledged to monitor Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s government under the memorandum of agreement with Bhumjaithai. He warned of using no-confidence motions and other tools if violations occur, particularly on constitutional amendments and corruption issues. The Nation, September 18
Vietnam
Investors in Vietnam to face strict police screening under planned reform. Vietnam’s security ministry is proposing a decree that would give police the authority to approve investment projects, including in energy, telecom, and golf. The reform aims to safeguard national interests and bolster Communist Party control but could raise compliance costs and slow approvals. Multinationals have voiced concern. Francesco Guarascio and Khanh Vu, Reuters, September 18
Myanmar
Myanmar junta pushes ruby and sapphire sales to China amid sanctions. Facing tightening sanctions and loss of mining territory, Myanmar’s junta is turning to China to export rubies and sapphires. At a promotional event in Nanning, officials signed a deal to boost gemstone trade. Meanwhile, control of key mining regions has shifted to ethnic forces, raising concerns over environmental harm and military-linked profits. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, September 18
ASEAN ministers call off Myanmar election visit after junta snub. ASEAN foreign ministers canceled a planned visit to Myanmar after junta leader Min Aung Hlaing refused to meet them. The trip, led by Malaysia’s Mohamad Hasan, aimed to discuss the regime’s December election plan, widely viewed as illegitimate. The junta has instead secured backing from China and India. The Irrawaddy, September 18
Philippines
Resigned DPWH official ordered to testify. Former Department of Public Works and Highways undersecretary Maria Catalina Cabral, who resigned amid a Senate probe into P300 million in ghost flood-control projects, has been ordered to appear at the next Blue Ribbon Committee hearing. Senators accused her of favoring specific contractors and demanded accountability despite her resignation. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, September 18
Indonesia
Indonesian parliament set to approve bigger 2026 budget for Prabowo. Lawmakers endorsed a 9% spending increase for 2026, approving 3,842.7 trillion rupiah and a 2.68% fiscal deficit—higher than President Prabowo’s original plan. The revised budget includes expanded regional transfers after local backlash. Prabowo aims for 5.4% GDP growth next year and 8% by 2029. Stefanno Sulaiman, Reuters, September 18
Prabowo’s Cabinet now has zero PDI-P representation after reshuffle. President Prabowo Subianto removed the last Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) member, Hendrar Prihadi, from his cabinet, replacing him with Sarah Sadiqa. Despite PDI-P's electoral strength, it now holds no government posts. The party accepted the decision, reaffirming its role as a balancing force in politics. Jakarta Globe, September 17
Singapore
President Tharman to make first state visit to Middle East, North Africa with four-day trip to Egypt. President Tharman Shanmugaratnam will visit Egypt from September 19 to 22, marking his first state trip to the region. He will meet President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, attend the Singapore-Egypt Business Forum, and visit key sites including the Suez Canal Economic Zone and Egyptian Red Crescent. Samuel Devaraj, The Straits Times, September 18.
Asia Pacific countries confront mounting costs of climate inaction. Governments and voters face escalating hazards and economic losses as warming accelerates nearly twice the global rate in Asia, with 2024 among the hottest years recorded. Rising emissions drive deadlier floods, storms, and fires; research links climate change to the ten worst weather disasters since 2004, causing at least 570,000 deaths. A high-emissions path could shave 17 percent from regional GDP by 2070, with Vietnam among the most exposed. Fossil fuels still supply four-fifths of ASEAN energy, so policy must realign toward renewables, carbon pricing, and nature-based protection. The region needs US$210 billion annually through 2030, roughly 4–5 percent of Southeast Asian output, plus better disclosure to de-risk projects. Vinod Thomas, East Asia Forum, September 19
East Asia
China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers. Beijing and Moscow have expanded cooperation in defense, trade, and diplomacy yet stop short of a treaty alliance. Leaders declared a partnership with “no limits” before Russia’s 2022 assault on Ukraine, and both leverage multilateral blocs to dilute U.S. influence. Historic disputes eased after border deals and drills, but their forces still lack interoperability. Commerce reached $245 billion in 2024, dominated by energy, leaving Russia reliant on China; crude flows and repeated delays to the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline highlight asymmetry. De-dollarization progressed via use of renminbi and rubles while BRICS and the SCO expand coordination without a shared vision of world order. Clara Fong and Lindsay Maizland, Council on Foreign Relations, September 18
When China Rules the Rivers. Beijing plans a mega-dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo that would generate triple the Three Gorges Dam’s capacity and cost about 1.2 trillion yuan over ten years, elevating hydropower and leverage over downstream India and Bangladesh. Risks include seismic hazards, environmental damage, relocation, and heightened tensions as critics warn of flow manipulation, data withholding, and potential diversions into the South–North Water Transfer scheme. Sovereignty politics around Tibet, the Dalai Lama’s advocacy, and earlier suppression of protests frame the project as a strategic assertion rather than pure engineering. Downstream alarm grew after hydrological data to India was withheld in 2017, then reportedly shared with Bangladesh. Antonina Luszczykiewicz-Mendis, U.S.-China Perception Monitor, September 17
Bringing Western Information Into North Korea Through Official Channels. Decades of subversive broadcasting by RFA and VOA produced little gain and exposed listeners to punishment, so a lawful approach using cooperation is proposed. Elites already receive foreign news and scholarship, professionals access materials as needed, and even the public encounters overseas films and literature on state channels and in translations. Suggested steps include literature exchanges, American teachers or book donations at PUFS, and licensing popular U.S. films for Sunday TV alongside Chinese and Russian content. The objective is mutual familiarity via official channels that reduce risk and may support broader diplomacy. Stephen Mercado, 38 North, September 18
The Art of Dealing with China. Multinationals in China face rising strategic salience and tighter political constraints. China’s stance is defined by four interlinked dualities. Ascent: foreign firms remain essential in semiconductors, biopharma, finance, and industrial equipment even as localization accelerates. Reform: companies are central to priorities such as pensions, healthcare, and capital market development, yet ideological red lines restrict participation. Innovation: ambitions for “new productive forces” demand global capital, talent, and R&D linkages while security screening tightens. Leverage: Beijing wields probes, legal tools, and market access, but firms hedge through China-plus-one diversification, preserving countervailing influence. The analysis argues for adaptive, nonbinary frameworks that track signals and avoid simplistic narratives, noting that commercial entanglement shapes peace and global order and merits an open collaborative research effort across business, policy, and academia. Jing Qian, Craig Allen, and Lizzi C. Lee, Asia Society, September 18
Southeast Asia
Thai Politics Poised for a Meltdown – or a Massive Breakthrough. Parliament installed Anutin Charnvirakul on September 7 to lead a minority Bhumjaithai cabinet under a pledge to hold elections within four months and permit a charter-amendment slate. Pheu Thai plunged from about 28 percent to roughly 11 percent after partnering with pro-military allies and mishandling leadership crises. The People’s Party, successor to Move Forward, led the 2023 lower-house vote before dissolution and leadership bans over lèse-majesté reform. Its platform cuts military clout and updates lèse-majesté for modern norms today. A decisive mandate would force the establishment to accept reformist governance and constitutional change or pursue lawfare or another coup, risking serious damage to Thailand’s political order. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, September 18
How Vietnam Turns a Celebrity’s Misstep into a Cautionary Tale of Patriotism. State campaigns before the 80th National Day pushed influencers to amplify patriotic messaging. TV host and filmmaker Tran Thanh posted a eulogy for dan bau maestro Pham Duc Thanh of Paris by Night, prompting accusations of disloyalty that fixated on his Chinese ancestry and Korean spouse. Conservative networks and state media amplified outrage, while the Ministry of Public Security’s paper condemned the “discordant note.” The episode exposed fissures between hardliners setting ideological tone and pragmatists prioritizing moderation, trade, and Western ties. Authorities used the uproar as a loyalty test to enforce performative patriotism, but such excess risks backlash and loss of narrative control. Despite a rare conservative-page rebuttal defending the musician’s legacy, Tran Thanh deleted the post and returned with National Day displays of unity. Dien Nguyen An Luong, FULCRUM, September 18
South Korea rewrites the rules of economic security — with new alliances. Since taking office on 4 June 2025, President Lee Jae-myung has recast policy around economic security. The agenda shields critical sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and batteries, invests in mineral stockpiles and early warning systems, and links industrial strategy to national security financing and tech controls. Past shocks from THAAD blowback and pandemic disruptions drove the change. A recent U.S. investigation into a Hyundai-LG facility shows exposure to political risk even among allies. Externally, Seoul seeks CPTPP accession and deeper ties with Southeast Asia and India to diversify partners while maintaining the U.S. alliance and trade with China. The approach is hedging rather than pivoting. Outcomes hinge on balancing resilience with openness and managing old relationships alongside new coalitions. Domestic capacity building remains priority domestically. Guanie Lim, ThinkChina, September 18
South Asia
Trump tariffs prompt India to rethink China ties. A 25 percent surcharge effective August 27, 2025 lifts many U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 50 percent, with exemptions limited to pharma and electronics, prompting tactical outreach to Beijing. India and China eased visas, reopened Lipulekh, Shipki La, and Nathu La border trade, and held leader talks at the Tianjin SCO summit. Persistent obstacles include a US$99.2 billion trade deficit, industry worries about cheap imports, and unresolved LAC disputes despite 24 rounds of talks and limited disengagement. The analysis judges warming as tactical, not a durable change, absent trust and structural fixes. Amit Ranjan, East Asia Forum, September 18