China
China’s defence minister urges greater unity to avoid ‘law of the jungle’. Defence Minister Dong Jun warned against Cold War thinking, military coercion, and hegemonism at the Beijing Xiangshan Forum. He emphasized that China’s military is a force for peace but would not tolerate Taiwan separatism or foreign interference. The event drew 1,800 delegates from 100 countries. Laurie Chen, Reuters, September 18
Trump extends TikTok deadline again ahead of talk with China’s Xi Jinping. U.S. President Donald Trump extended the TikTok shutdown deadline to December 16, pending confirmation with Xi Jinping on Chinese ownership. The move follows a framework agreement in Madrid talks. Congress remains wary of any deal preserving Beijing’s influence over the app’s algorithm and operations. Bochen Han, South China Morning Post, September 17
Japan
Koizumi lands key conservative for campaign in LDP election. Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi secured Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato as his campaign chief in the LDP leadership race, a move seen as critical for winning conservative backing. Kato’s ties to the Abe faction bolster Koizumi’s chances against rival Sanae Takaichi, who failed to gain Kato’s support despite her long-standing conservative credentials. Nobuhiko Tajima and Yuta Ogi, The Asahi Shimbun, September 17
Nippon Ishin expels three member lawmakers. Nippon Ishin no Kai expelled Tadashi Morishima, Hiroki Abe, and Takeshi Saiki after they criticized the new leadership and called on others to leave the party. The lawmakers had submitted resignation letters, which the leadership rejected before deciding on expulsion. The party now plans to pressure them to resign their Diet seats. The Japan Times, September 18
South Korea
Special counsel attempts to raid PPP’s headquarters again. Special counsel Min Joong-ki’s team attempted another search of the People Power Party’s headquarters to obtain its membership list amid a probe into alleged mass sign-ups by Unification Church members tied to Kim Keon Hee. Prior raids failed due to party resistance citing personal data concerns. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, September 18
Lee’s approval rating falls below 60%: poll. President Lee Jae Myung’s approval rating dropped to 59%, down three points from two weeks prior, while disapproval rose to 31%. Despite the dip, 63% said he outperformed expectations in his first 100 days. The ruling party’s support also declined, while the opposition saw modest gains. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, September 18
Thailand
Thai police fire tear gas at Cambodian protesters at a disputed border village. Thai riot police injured 23 Cambodians during clashes at a contested border site claimed by both countries. Cambodia accused Thailand of cross-border aggression, while Bangkok said force was used against violent protesters. Prime Minister Hun Manet urged ASEAN support. The U.S. called for de-escalation. Panu Wongcha-um and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, September 17
50 politicians leave United Thai Nation to join PM’s Bhumjaithai. Around 50 national and local politicians, including two MPs, defected from the United Thai Nation Party to Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party after disagreements over UTN’s refusal to support his leadership. The move follows Anutin’s agreement with the People’s Party to form a government. Bangkok Post, September 17
Myanmar
Myanmar junta PM courts political backing, investment during China visit. Junta Prime Minister Nyo Saw visited Nanning for the China-ASEAN Expo, meeting Chinese officials and business leaders to boost trade and investment. He pledged cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative and promised protections for Chinese interests. The visit follows Min Aung Hlaing’s recent trip to China. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, September 17
Cambodia
Cambodia accuses Thai forces of border violence, calls for respect of ceasefire agreements. Cambodia’s defense ministry accused Thai forces of invading Prey Chan village and injuring 28 people, including monks, with tear gas and projectiles. Officials said the attack violated the July 28 ceasefire and international law. Cambodia urged Thailand to honor border agreements and resolve disputes peacefully. Khmer Times, September 17
PM: Thailand’s plan to seize territory at 17 additional locations in Cambodia. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet alerted ASEAN Chair Anwar Ibrahim and global leaders to Thailand’s alleged plan to seize territory at 17 more locations, escalating tensions beyond previous flashpoints. The Cambodian government accuses Thai forces of violating international agreements, forcibly evicting civilians, and breaching ceasefire terms. Khmer Times, September 17
Philippines
House Speaker Romualdez resigns amid flood control scandals. House Speaker Martin Romualdez stepped down after being implicated in corruption tied to flood control projects. He cited concern for the House’s integrity and the presidency. Rep. Faustino Dy III was elected as his replacement. The Presidential Palace said Romualdez remains under investigation as public outrage over infrastructure misuse intensifies. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, September 18
Senate blue ribbon panel subpoenas ex-DPWH exec Cabral. The Senate blue ribbon committee ordered a subpoena for former DPWH undersecretary Maria Catalina Cabral after she resigned and declined to attend hearings. Lawmakers, including Senators Marcoleta and Lacson, insisted she still answer questions on alleged budget insertions. DPWH Secretary Vince Dizon confirmed internal investigations will continue. Charie Abarca, Philippine Daily Inquirer, September 18
Indonesia
Indonesia court upholds passage of military law revisions. Indonesia’s Constitutional Court rejected five petitions challenging revisions to military law, which allow more civilian government departments to be staffed by military personnel. The plaintiffs claimed the legislative process was flawed, but the court upheld parliament’s decision. Ananda Teresia, Reuters, September 17
Prabowo shakes up cabinet again, full list of appointments released. President Prabowo Subianto reshuffled his cabinet for the second time in September, reappointing Erick Thohir as youth and sports minister and naming Djamari Chaniago as chief security minister. Other key changes include new deputy ministers and presidential staff, as Prabowo consolidates power one year into office. Jakarta Globe, September 17
Taiwan
Taiwan shows off first missile to be jointly manufactured with US armsmaker. Taiwan unveiled the Barracuda-500, a low-cost autonomous cruise missile jointly developed with Anduril Industries. Designed for swarm attacks on warships, it will be mass produced locally through technology transfer. The move underscores deepening Taiwan–U.S. defense ties amid rising Chinese military pressure. Yimou Lee and Fabian Hamacher, Reuters, September 17
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka resumes key highway project with $500 million new Chinese funding. Sri Lanka restarted work on the Central Expressway with a $500 million loan from China EXIM Bank, the first since its 2022 default. The 38-km link between Colombo and Kandy aims to finish by April 2028. The project was suspended in 2023 during the financial crisis. Uditha Jayasinghe, Reuters, September 17
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan court jails two journalists for undermining public order. A Kyrgyz court sentenced Kloop journalists Zhoomart Duulatov and Alexander Alexandrov to five years for spreading false information and inciting unrest. Rights groups condemned the ruling as politically motivated. Kloop has faced government pressure, with staff operating abroad and its site blocked. Aigerim Turgunbaeva, Reuters, September 17
East Asia
Is China and Russia’s relationship too close for comfort? Beijing and Moscow sustain a renewed treaty framework and a proclaimed “no-limits” partnership, yet their alignment is pragmatic, not ideological. Shared aims include counterbalancing the United States and leveraging cheap energy, while historic grievances and a 4,000-kilometer border temper trust. Unlike Pyongyang’s overt military pact and troop dispatch to the Ukraine war, China keeps distance, calling for ceasefire while avoiding condemnation or direct support. Centuries of changing cooperation and rivalry, from Soviet mentorship to 1960s confrontation and 1989 normalization, signal volatility beneath present warmth. Current closeness persists while the US–China–Russia equilibrium holds; if that balance skews, bilateral intimacy could unravel. History cautions against assuming durability for this strategic pairing. Xiaoyang Zhang, East Asia Forum, September 17
Japan’s diplomatic discontents after US strikes on Iran. June 2025 Israeli and US attacks on Iran forced Tokyo to juggle energy security, Middle East ties, and alliance management. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba first criticized Israel’s use of force, then voiced understanding for Washington’s goal of preventing an Iranian bomb, reflecting electoral timing, tariff talks, and fear of regional escalation. The episode strains Japan’s rules-based narrative, given past condemnations of China, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while avoiding a clear judgment on US legality. Policymakers worry the strikes could accelerate Iran’s nuclear program and embolden other states, with spillovers to North Korea’s arms-control framing. The gap between aspiration and leverage exposes limits in bridging Global South and West. Christopher W. Hughes, East Asia Forum, September 18
The Hangover: Foreign Carmakers’ China Strategies. Foreign automakers’ China operations have changed from profit engines to drags. Market share has fallen to roughly 40 percent, margins compressed, and several joint ventures booked heavy impairments. Firms now split among three plays: exit or scale back, double down with localized EV investment and deep partnerships, or pivot idle capacity to exports. Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Toyota pursue expansion and cost cuts; Ford and Kia regained profitability by exporting; Mitsubishi, Stellantis affiliates, and Renault reduced footprints. Geopolitics, tariffs, and protectionism complicate choices, while supplier networks face price pressure and stranded assets. Decisions over 2026–27 product cycles will determine survivors and reshape home-market jobs, SOEs’ finances, and global supply chains, with lasting competitive consequences. Gregor Sebastian, Rhodium Group, September 17
Scarborough Shoal: Is China’s ‘nature reserve’ a military outpost in disguise? China declared a nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal on 10 September, establishing core and experimental zones and a regime that enables patrols, monitoring buoys, and restricted access. The mapped protection concentrates in the northeast while the western and southern lagoon remain excluded, leaving depth-suitable areas for reclamation and infrastructure. Proposed facilities include radars, hydrometeorological stations, docks, helicopter pads, and a coast guard base with dual-use potential. The move strengthens de facto control after years of clashes with Philippine vessels and aligns sovereignty claims with domestic law. Manila and Washington condemned the plan; Chinese commanders warned against “provocations.” Analysts argue the designation advances power projection under an ecological banner today. Yu Zeyuan, ThinkChina, September 17
Competing with China’s Public R&D Model: Lessons and Risks for U.S. Innovation Strategy. OECD data indicate China has closed the R&D spending gap, with government intramural outlays exceeding U.S. levels by more than half in 2023. Beijing’s centralized approach concentrates resources on priority domains and dual-use aims, signaling direction to labs, universities, and firms. U.S. strengths persist in private enterprise and universities, yet growth in PRC business investment and expanding scientific workforce erode advantages. Benchmarks show rising Chinese output and more top researchers. The United States faces economic and security risks if funding stagnates and talent pipelines weaken. Recommended steps include multiyear research support, modernized tax credits, stronger STEM fellowships, and visa reforms to retain international graduates. Charles Wessner and Shruti Sharma, CSIS, September 17
Southeast Asia
Enhancing ASEAN’s Intra-Regional Trade Need Not Require Bells and Whistles. ASEAN can raise intra-bloc trade by fixing facilitation fundamentals rather than adding new regimes. Recent turbulence and partnerships, including an ASEAN–China FTA upgrade and the new non-binding FIT Partnership, create momentum to streamline customs, cut fees, and publish clearer guidance so firms use existing accords. FTA utilization sits below half, with non-tariff barriers and paperwork frictions deterring take-up. OECD indicators show gaps in documentation, stakeholder engagement, and uneven automation; Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar lag due to digital infrastructure and skills deficits. Regional blueprints already prioritize these upgrades; execution and digitisation would reduce variance and increase participation. Kristina Fong Siew Leng, FULCRUM, September 17
Between law and power: The Philippines, China, and the future of Scarborough Shoal. China’s 11 September approval of a Scarborough Shoal nature reserve advances control inside the Philippines’ EEZ, drawing a formal protest from Manila. The step extends a pattern of ecological justifications paired with coercive actions since 2012, including bans, militia activity, and access limits. The 2016 arbitral ruling invalidated the nine-dash line, yet harassment persists. August incidents near the shoal and a close pass by a Chinese jet signaled higher operational risk. Designating the northeastern sector strengthens control over the only navigable entrance and could precede “observation stations.” Washington voiced support for Manila; allied contingency planning is now the test. Don McLain Gill, ThinkChina, September 17