Asia Daily: September 18, 2024
News
U.S. study finds China’s tech innovation ‘much stronger’ than previously understood. A 20-month investigation by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) found that China's technological innovation is significantly stronger than earlier thought. Examining 44 Chinese firms in sectors such as nuclear power, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, the study revealed that China is outpacing or on track to surpass Western firms in key areas. China leads in nuclear power and electric vehicles, with advanced semiconductors lagging. Analysts warn that China’s innovation trajectory poses a serious challenge to the U.S. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, September 18
Japanese Schoolboy Stabbed in China Confirmed Dead. A 10-year-old Japanese boy was fatally stabbed in Shenzhen, China, while on his way to school. The suspect, a 44-year-old man, was arrested at the scene. The Japanese government expressed outrage, with Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa demanding safety measures and a full explanation from China. The attack occurred on the anniversary of an incident in 1931 that triggered a war between China and Japan. It follows a similar incident in June near another Japanese school. Reuters, September 19
Yoon to visit Czech Republic with focus on nuclear energy cooperation. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will visit the Czech Republic this week to strengthen ties and support South Korea's bid for a major nuclear energy project. Yoon will meet with Czech President Petr Pavel and Prime Minister Petr Fiala to discuss cooperation in nuclear energy, trade, and technology. The visit follows a consortium led by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power being named a preferred bidder for the Dukovany nuclear project. Agreements on advanced technology and infrastructure rebuilding in Ukraine are also expected. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, September 18
Kyrgyz authorities urge migrants to return home from Russia. Kyrgyz authorities have called on their citizens working in Russia to consider returning home due to rising tensions and potential security risks. This move follows concerns about increased xenophobia and violence against Central Asian migrants in Russia. The Kyrgyz government is urging migrants to prioritize their safety, particularly in light of recent geopolitical tensions and economic instability. Officials are also exploring strategies to reintegrate returning citizens into the domestic labor market. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, September 18
PM picks Thaksin’s loyalists as policy advisers. Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has appointed several loyalists of her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as key policy advisers. The move is seen as strengthening her political position by relying on experienced figures who were central to her father’s administration. The appointments include veterans with expertise in various sectors, indicating a focus on continuity with Thaksin’s policies. Thaksin's influence remains significant in Thai politics, despite his ousting in a 2006 coup. Bangkok Post, September 18
Party Central Committee convenes 10th plenum. Vietnam's Party Central Committee began its 10th plenum in Hanoi on Tuesday, with key agenda items including a mid-term review of the implementation of the resolutions from the 13th National Party Congress. The meeting will assess socio-economic development and make adjustments for the remaining half of the Party’s term. The committee will also address personnel policies and preparations for upcoming elections, alongside other critical issues related to national governance and policy implementation. Vietnam News, September 18
Japan ruling party proposes electing new PM on Oct. 1. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has proposed selecting a successor to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the beginning of an extraordinary Diet session on October 1. The new LDP leader, to be chosen in a party election on September 27, is expected to become prime minister, as the ruling coalition controls both houses of parliament. Opposition parties have requested sufficient time for speeches and questions before a potential snap lower house election. Kyodo News, September 18
Tajik president invites German chancellor to cooperate on Rogun HPP. Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon has extended an invitation to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to collaborate on the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP). This initiative is aimed at accelerating the development of the massive Rogun project, a critical component of Tajikistan's energy strategy. The collaboration is expected to enhance Tajikistan's energy security and contribute to regional stability, with Germany's advanced technology and expertise playing a pivotal role in the project. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, September 18
Myanmar junta taps China for drone tech after losing territory to ethnic armies. Myanmar's military regime is seeking advanced drone technology from China following significant territorial losses to ethnic armed groups. Defense Minister General Tin Aung San visited Beijing to discuss military cooperation and observe drone and air defense systems. The regime aims to counter resistance forces, which have been effectively using drones in their fight against the junta. The Irrawaddy, September 18.
Brisk voting for local government in Indian-controlled Kashmir for first time after losing autonomy. Voting concluded for the first phase of a staggered election in Indian-controlled Kashmir, the first since the region lost its special status under Prime Minister Modi’s government in 2019. Turnout was reported at 59%, with security heightened to ensure a peaceful vote. Over 2.3 million residents were eligible to vote for 24 lawmakers. The election is significant as it marks the region’s first since losing semi-autonomy and being restructured into federally controlled territories. Aijaz Hussain, AP News, September 18
Ex-PNP chief was on Guo's payroll. A former Philippine National Police (PNP) chief allegedly received payments from Alice Guo, the dismissed mayor of Bamban, Tarlac, according to testimony at a Senate inquiry. Raul Villanueva of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation stated that intelligence rumors suggest the ex-PNP chief helped Guo escape the country amid investigations related to illegal Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs). These allegations have sparked significant controversy and calls for further investigation. Bernadette E. Tamayo and Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, September 18
ASEAN mayors, governors gather in Laos to focus on connectivity, sustainability. Leaders from ASEAN cities convened in Vientiane, Laos, to discuss urban development, focusing on improving connectivity and sustainability. The event aimed to strengthen cooperation among ASEAN members to address regional challenges such as urbanization, infrastructure development, and climate change. Discussions included enhancing sustainable transport and fostering inclusive growth. Phonethida Sitthixay, The Laotian Times, September 18
North Korea leader Kim leads new ballistic and cruise missile tests, KCNA says. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the test launch of new tactical ballistic missiles with super-large warheads and modified cruise missiles on Wednesday. Kim emphasized the need to strengthen both nuclear and conventional weapons due to external threats. The South Korean military confirmed the firing of multiple short-range ballistic missiles, marking the second missile test by North Korea in a week. The Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 ballistic missile, featuring a 4.5-ton warhead, was among those tested. Jack Kim, Reuters, September 18
China announces sanctions on U.S. companies selling arms to self-ruled Taiwan. China has imposed sanctions on American companies involved in arms sales to Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory and has threatened to annex by force. While no specific companies were named, the sanctions follow U.S. arms deliveries to Taiwan, including F-16 fighter jets and Abrams tanks. The U.S. continues to support Taiwan’s defense despite China's demands to cease cooperation. Taiwan, meanwhile, is bolstering its own military capabilities, including submarine production and extended mandatory service. Author, AP News, September 18
USFK commander nominee says 28,500 American troops in S. Korea are 'essential'. Lt. Gen. Xavier Brunson, the nominee for U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) commander, stated that maintaining 28,500 American troops in South Korea is crucial for sustaining operational plans. His comments come amid concerns that former President Trump, if reelected, could consider reducing troop numbers. Brunson emphasized the need for layered missile defense systems and advanced prelaunch capabilities. He also highlighted North Korea's nuclear ambitions and its stockpile of chemical weapons as key threats. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, September 18
India's cabinet accepts recommendation to hold simultaneous national, state elections. India's cabinet has approved a recommendation to hold simultaneous elections for state assemblies and the national parliament, a move advocated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to enhance governance. Simultaneous elections were the norm decades ago but were disrupted, leading to the current staggered election cycle. The government argues that this shift will reduce election expenses, improve transparency, and allow uninterrupted governance. The proposal, part of the "One Nation, One Election" initiative, still requires parliamentary approval. Shivam Patel, Reuters, September 18
U.S. Navy chief unveils plan to be ready for possible war with China by 2027. Admiral Lisa Franchetti, the U.S. Navy’s chief of operations, announced a new plan aimed at preparing the Navy for potential conflict with China by 2027, aligning with President Xi Jinping’s target for readiness to invade Taiwan. The plan emphasizes seven priority goals, including reducing ship maintenance delays, improving recruitment, and expanding the use of drones and autonomous systems. The Navy is learning from Ukraine’s sea denial tactics in the Black Sea and U.S. operations in the Red Sea against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, September 18
Chinese aircraft carrier comes closer than ever to Japan. A Chinese aircraft carrier, Liaoning, entered waters near Japan’s shores for the first time, prompting Tokyo to express “serious concerns” to Beijing. Accompanied by two destroyers, the carrier sailed between Japan’s westernmost islands of Yonaguni and Iriomote, passing through Japan’s “contiguous zone.” The incident follows other recent military activities, including Chinese warships near disputed islets and airspace violations. Japan condemned the action as a threat to national and regional security. China defended the movement, citing compliance with international law. Mari Yamaguchi, AP News, September 18
Malaysia's king to visit China, eyes infrastructure support. Malaysia's King Sultan Ibrahim will visit China, marking the first visit by a Malaysian monarch in a decade. The trip, beginning Thursday, includes meetings with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, with a focus on infrastructure projects that enhance connectivity to Singapore. Sultan Ibrahim, installed as king in January, aims to discuss reviving a high-speed rail project and other China-backed initiatives. Joe Cash, Reuters, September 18
Analysis & Opinion
How is Inland Migration Reshaping China’s Economy? As China's economy slows, many middle-class citizens are moving from expensive first-tier cities back to lower-tier cities. This is driven by high living costs, shrinking opportunities, and economic decentralization. Smaller cities, with affordable living and local support, offer better business prospects. Cross-border e-commerce, regional development, and new talent hubs benefit from this migration, potentially spurring long-term economic growth. Nina Chen,
, September 18Indonesia: Jokowi’s Real Legacy is an Unpredictable Successor. Joko Widodo's presidency, marked by infrastructure development and democratic regression, has set the stage for his successor, Prabowo Subianto. Widodo's legacy may rest on his decision to elevate Prabowo, a controversial figure, to the presidency. The future of Indonesia under Prabowo is uncertain, as he inherits challenges like democratic backsliding, overreliance on China, and economic reforms. Prabowo’s focus may shift from infrastructure to human capital development and restoring Indonesia’s international reputation. Greg Earl, Lowy Institute, September 19
UK Faces a Critical Juncture in its China Relationship. The United Kingdom's relationship with China faces a crossroads as it confronts both security concerns and economic interests. As the UK adopts a more assertive stance toward Beijing, identifying China as a strategic threat, it must navigate issues, including human rights, trade, and its post-Brexit global strategy. This re-evaluation will influence Britain's policies in the Indo-Pacific and its future role in international coalitions. Rana Mitter, East Asia Forum, September 18
Australian Investment Can Boost Pacific Media Resilience. Pacific media faces existential challenges, including technological shifts, minimal funding, aging infrastructure, and post-pandemic economic stress. Malicious information operations compound these issues, with independent journalism in the region under severe pressure. Australia’s Indo-Pacific Broadcasting Strategy, released in 2024, aims to strengthen media resilience through initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Media Fund, helping media outlets access necessary funding. While concerns exist over regional influence from both China and Australia, fostering independent media is crucial for democracy and governance. Enhanced media support could also improve Australians’ understanding of Pacific issues. Heather Wrathall, East Asia Forum, September 19
Assessing China’s AI Development and Forecasting Its Future Tech Priorities. China’s AI sector faces hurdles from U.S. export controls and domestic funding constraints but continues to push for self-reliance in advanced technologies. Despite lagging behind U.S. AI leaders, China focuses on leveraging AI for industrial efficiency, robotics, and biotechnology, prioritizing economic growth and technological sovereignty. The Indo-Pacific’s tech competition will be shaped by AI and advanced semiconductor capabilities, with implications for global geopolitics. Hanna Dohmen, Atlantic Council, September 18
Central Asia: Facing 5 Assertive Presidents, Germany’s Scholz Gets Rebuffed on Ukraine. During Olaf Scholz's visit to Central Asia, he sought to deepen economic ties and address geopolitical concerns, including migration and energy. Despite Germany’s attempted engagement, Kazakh President Tokayev dismissed Scholz's stance on the Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the necessity of negotiations. While Scholz promoted partnerships in green hydrogen and critical raw materials, the region's leaders displayed strong self-interest, balancing relationships with global powers like Russia and China. Timon Ostermeier, The Diplomat, September 18
Russia and China in the Arctic: Less Than Meets the Eye. Despite close cooperation, China and Russia’s relationship in the Arctic is marked by competition and mistrust. China’s involvement is driven by economic opportunities, particularly access to natural resources and trade routes, but its Arctic strategy remains cautious. While China has invested in Russia’s Arctic projects, disagreements over energy deals and infrastructure show the limitations of their partnership. Nicolas Jouan, Zdenek Rod, and Martin Ruzicka, The Diplomat, September 19
The Forgotten Impact of 9/11 on Japan. The 9/11 attacks greatly affected Japan, with 24 Japanese nationals among the victims and shaping Japan’s move away from its pacifist post-WWII stance. The event heightened Japan's focus on national security and deepened its alliance with the U.S., contributing to military deployments abroad. The architect of the World Trade Center, Minoru Yamasaki, also had a deep connection to Japan, further linking the tragedy to the country. Oliver Jia, The Japan Times, September 18
Southeast Asia Untroubled by China’s Nuclear Modernization Efforts. While China’s nuclear modernization raises global concerns, Southeast Asia remains focused on regional security and stability. Many nations in the region prioritize economic ties with China and peaceful engagement, showing less alarm over Beijing's growing nuclear capabilities. This approach contrasts with broader global anxiety surrounding nuclear proliferation. Brad Glosserman, The Japan Times, September 18
Takeaways from SEACO2024: Rising Food Insecurity, Growing Concern for Climate Change’s Impacts. The SEACO2024 survey reveals rising food insecurity in Southeast Asia, with seven out of ten people experiencing some form of it due to climate change. El Nino, droughts, and floods exacerbate the issue, particularly in the Philippines and Myanmar. The report urges for sustainable food policies, climate-resilient agriculture, and home food production. It highlights the urgent need for policy actions to address the impacts of climate change on food security. Elyssa Kaur Ludher, Fulcrum, September 18
Thailand’s Overlooked Growth Story: Labour Reallocation and Domestic Investment. Thailand's economic growth has been driven by the shift of labor from low-productivity agriculture to higher-productivity industries and services, alongside increased domestic investment. This reallocation is a major factor in the country's productivity growth, a trend often overlooked in analyses of Asia's economic rise. Further growth will depend on boosting domestic private and public investment, with a focus on long-term productivity. Peter Warr, Fulcrum, September 18
Empty Steppes: An Examination of Mongolia’s Ukraine Policy. Mongolia initially supported Ukraine through humanitarian aid and public protests but has since maintained a cautious stance due to its delicate geopolitical position between Russia and China. While dependent on Russian fuel and Chinese trade, Mongolia also holds leverage by controlling key trade routes. Mongolia’s neutral diplomacy could position it as a potential mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Mathew Biadun, The Geopolitics, September 18