China
Trump’s China trip may hinge on Boeing and soybean deals, sources say. China and the U.S. are finalizing plans for a state visit by President Trump, with major purchases of American goods, especially Boeing jets and soybeans, central to the deal. Talks in Madrid yielded a framework agreement on TikTok, while discussions also covered rare earths and fentanyl. A visit to Shanghai via high-speed rail is being considered. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, September 17
China fires water cannon at Philippine ships in South China Sea. China’s coast guard used water cannons on over 10 Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal, injuring one person and damaging a fisheries ship. Beijing accused Manila of illegal entry and ramming a Chinese vessel, while the Philippines denied the claims, asserting the mission was to support local fishermen. Joe Cash and Karen Lema, Reuters, September 16
Japan
Japan’s Koizumi, Hayashi run for leadership of ruling party. Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi declared candidacies for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership, aiming to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Koizumi is backed by Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, while Hayashi pledged stability and growth. Sanae Takaichi is also expected to join a race already featuring Toshimitsu Motegi and Takayuki Kobayashi. Satoshi Sugiyama and Makiko Yamazaki, Reuters, September 16
Japan won’t recognise a Palestinian state given US ties, media report says. Japan will not recognize Palestinian statehood at this time, according to an Asahi report citing unnamed officials, a move linked to preserving relations with the United States and avoiding Israeli backlash. Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya confirmed Japan is assessing timing and modalities. Despite voting for a two-state roadmap at the UN, Tokyo remains cautious. Kantaro Komiya and Kiyoshi Takenaka, Reuters, September 16
South Korea
Arrest warrant issued for PPP lawmaker Kweon over bribery allegations. A Seoul court issued an arrest warrant for Rep. Kweon Seong-dong of the main opposition People Power Party over allegations he received ₩100 million in illegal political funds from a former Unification Church official ahead of the 2022 presidential election. He also allegedly received cash from church leader Han Hak-ja and warned them of a police probe. Oh Seok-min, Yonhap News Agency, September 16
Amending Constitution, reforming prosecution among policy tasks under Lee administration. President Lee Jae Myung's administration confirmed 123 policy priorities, including a constitutional amendment to replace the single-term presidency with a two-term system and reform the prosecution by removing its investigative powers. Other goals include AI and biotech investment, military reform, inter-Korean dialoge, and relocating government institutions to Sejong. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, September 16
North Korea
Kim Jong Un’s government orders world-class ski destination at Mount Paektu. North Korea has ordered the transformation of Samjiyon into a premier alpine tourism resort centered around Mount Paektu. The project includes airport upgrades, digital infrastructure, hotel renovations, and foreign tourist attractions, but local officials doubt its feasibility due to funding shortages and logistical constraints. Jeong Seo-yeong, Daily NK, September 16
Thailand
Senators urge PP to probe Anutin over collusion case. Reserve senators petitioned the People’s Party to investigate Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul over alleged Senate vote-rigging, citing constitutional concerns. They warned of interference by a powerful network obstructing the probe. The case, framed as a national security threat, involves 1,200 witnesses and possible charges under rebellion laws. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, September 17
PM Anutin submits cabinet list to King. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul finalized and submitted his cabinet list for royal endorsement after paying respects at key religious sites. He held a final review meeting before the submission and declined to specify when the swearing-in will occur. Government House staff also reinstalled former PM Prayut’s desk per Anutin’s request. Mongkol Bangprapa and Online Reporters, Bangkok Post, September 16
Myanmar
Myanmar junta troops shoot, detain two KIO officials in Myitkyina. Myanmar junta forces shot and arrested two officials from the Kachin Independence Organization in Myitkyina amid rising clashes in nearby Waingmaw Township. The incident has heightened tensions in the Kachin State capital, where local resistance and military operations continue to intensify. Min Maung and Maung Shwe Wah, Myanmar Now, September 16
Ruling generals, ministers to dominate Myanmar military’s proxy party candidate list. Over 20 top officials, including ministers and generals, will run under the USDP in Myanmar’s December election on orders from Min Aung Hlaing. Key figures include Mya Tun Oo, Thet Khaing Win, and Aung Lin Dwe. Voting will be excluded in conflict zones where the junta has lost control. The Irrawaddy, September 16
Philippines
Philippine court freezes assets linked to flood control project anomalies. The Court of Appeals ordered the freezing of 135 bank accounts and 27 insurance policies tied to individuals and companies under Senate investigation for corruption in flood control projects. The move follows a request by Public Works Secretary Vince Dizon and supports President Marcos Jr.'s anti-corruption drive. Billions of pesos are believed to be involved. Karen Lema, Reuters, September 16
Philippines and Britain discuss troop agreement as regional tensions rise. Britain formally expressed its intent to negotiate a Visiting Forces Agreement with the Philippines, aiming to ease bilateral military cooperation. Defense officials also discussed South China Sea tensions and regional security. Manila plans a 16.3% naval budget increase to support new frigates and infrastructure as part of its broader defense shift toward external threats. Karen Lema, Reuters, September 16
Singapore
Singapore’s exports fall 11.3% y/y in August, much weaker than forecast. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports dropped 11.3% in August, missing expectations of a 1% rise, with sharp declines in both electronics and non-electronics. Exports to the U.S. fell 28.8%, largely due to new tariffs, while shipments to China and Indonesia also declined. Officials warn second-half growth may slow despite earlier resilience. Jun Yuan Yong, Reuters, September 16
Taiwan
Taiwan launches new civil defence guide, says not aiming to cause panic. Taiwan released an updated civil defence handbook with instructions on crisis communication, emergency supplies, and identifying disinformation, including threats disguised as friendly forces. Officials emphasized preparedness, not fear, amid increasing Chinese military pressure. The guide, also available in English, draws on Ukraine’s experience and encourages early planning for safety. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, September 16
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan criminalizes forced marriage in landmark legal reform. Kazakhstan enacted a law criminalizing forced marriage, introducing penalties up to 10 years in prison. The reform targets bride kidnapping, or alyp qashu, and closes legal loopholes related to coercion and abduction. Officials emphasized consent and human rights protections, especially for minors and vulnerable women. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, September 16
Kazakhstan bolsters rapid response capabilities to potential security threats. Kazakhstan expanded the Emergency Ministry’s role to coordinate territorial defense, enabling deployment during crises without full mobilization. The move follows drone incursions, including one confirmed to be Russian. Territorial forces now include law enforcement, special forces, and volunteers. A June law formalized this structure to enhance national readiness. Eurasianet, September 16
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyz parliament reveals real reasons for its possible dissolution. Lawmakers in Kyrgyzstan are advancing a self-dissolution plan, citing expedited elections and campaign rule changes. Deputy Dastan Bekeshev estimates a 99.7% likelihood, with 30 of 60 required signatures collected. Critics warn of elite manipulation, noting increased donation limits and limited voter choice may skew results toward wealthier candidates. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, September 16
East Asia
East Asian restraint tops rhetoric on Chinese subsidies. Governments across East Asia reacted to China’s subsidised exports far less than public statements suggest, despite subsidies spanning 4,220 HS product codes. Indonesia acted on 1,329 codes but used transparent import barriers in only 18 percent of cases. South Korea touched 1,227 codes yet applied transparent measures in just 93, favouring non-tariff steps. Many partners responded in under 300 codes, about 7 percent of subsidised categories. Sector patterns vary: apparel chapters 61 and 62 show broad overlap, pharmaceuticals reach 96 percent, and base metals exceed 90 percent. The revealed preference is to bank buyer gains and shield only select lines. Australia and Japan applied narrower coverage. Relative selectivity persists. Simon Evenett and Fernando Martin, East Asia Forum, September 16
How China’s COSCO is redrawing global shipping routes through Southeast Asia. COSCO launched a direct Batam–Yangpu service with a Kota Kinabalu stop, integrating Indonesia’s Batam with Hainan’s Yangpu and speeding links to North and South America. Batam gains shorter transit times, lower logistics costs, and faster market access while reducing reliance on Singapore. The corridor also addresses China’s “Malacca Dilemma” by diversifying routes and boosting supply chain resilience. Bilateral ties deepen amid 2024 trade of US$147.8 billion and broader investment links. Hurdles persist: Singapore’s scale and Batam’s capacity and processes constrain efficiency. The ACFTA 3.0 upgrade and Yangpu’s transshipment role expand inter-regional access and embed Southeast Asia in global supply chains. Genevieve Donnellon-May, ThinkChina, September 16
Will China be the first to bring humanoid robots into the home? Beijing’s inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games showcased rapid advances, including Unitree’s H1 winning the 1500-metre race in 6:34 and G1’s participation in kickboxing. UBTECH demonstrated industrial use cases such as material handling, inspection, and autonomous battery swaps, supporting an industry-first entry point in structured factory settings. High prices and limited practicality remain; Unitree’s R1 is priced at 39,900 RMB as consumers question utility. Executives and analysts cite immature AI, unclear household demand, and stronger cost-effectiveness of robotic arms. China leads in scale with patents and model launches, yet lags in integrating perception with cognition compared with U.S. approaches. Yush Chau, ThinkChina, September 16
Southeast Asia
Hanoi is choking on air pollution beyond the city limits. PM2.5 routinely breaches safety thresholds, with winter inversions driving long spells rated unhealthy in 2023. City and national actions target transport and burning: inner districts will phase out two-wheelers from July 2026 and end internal combustion vehicles by 2030, with support up to VND5 million per low-income person; charcoal stoves and open burning face bans. Pollution sources extend outside the core: modelling attributes about 40–65 percent of PM2.5 to regional emitters, including straw burning contributing over 10 percent and agriculture roughly one fifth. Informal recycling villages and coal-heavy power keep risks elevated without storage to firm renewables. A coordinated delta-wide plan and carbon market activation are needed. Thang Nam Do, East Asia Forum, September 17
Thai Politics Gets the Blues. Anutin Charnvirakul rose to the premiership through expedient bargains amid a bleak political scene, with an early 2026 election pledged. The 2023 surge of Move Forward collapsed after Senate vetoes, a pro-military deal with Pheu Thai, and Thaksin Shinawatra’s return. After Srettha’s 2024 ouster, Paetongtarn’s brief tenure faltered while Thaksin dominated, then unraveled after a viral call with Hun Sen and subsequent coalition failure. Bhumjaithai’s base remains thin, winning 1.1 million party-list votes versus Move Forward’s 14.4 million and Pheu Thai’s 10.9 million; even Buriram rejected it. Patronage politics and hardline royalist rhetoric shape the party’s image. People’s Party support for Anutin hinged on early elections and a constitutional referendum process, yet Senate influence grants him effective veto power. Age and ideology cleavages have faded. Duncan McCargo, FULCRUM, September 16
ASEAN-ROK Security Cooperation in a Dual Contingency. A simultaneous Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula crisis remains unlikely but is rising, risking overstretched U.S.-allied capacity. Southeast Asia would face disrupted SLOCs, financial turbulence, and strategic instability; South Korea’s resilience would partly depend on ASEAN. About 90 percent of South Korea’s energy transits the Malacca Strait, exposing critical chokepoint risk. ASEAN roles include humanitarian support, evacuation hubs, and mediation that shape Seoul’s security environment. A NATO-style pact is impractical; pursue issue-focused cooperation instead. Priorities: maritime and sanctions cooperation via IFC liaison, convoy and crisis drills, and a joint task force. Civil protection and AHA Centre links strengthen logistics. Cyber and c-UAS measures bolster infrastructure. Political sensitivities and capacity limits remain. Ju Hyung Kim, FULCRUM, September 16
South Asia
Chronicles of corruption. Indonesia, Nepal, and the Philippines illustrate systemic graft. Indonesia’s 580 legislators received about US$3,000 monthly housing allowances, nearly ten times the minimum wage. Nepal banned 26 social media and messaging platforms to silence criticism of irregularities and misuse of funds. Flood-control projects in the Philippines revealed overpriced, substandard, or ghost works involving political and business collusion. Transparency International’s 2024 index ranks Indonesia 99, Nepal 108, and the Philippines 114. Protests escalated: Indonesia saw arson and looting, prompting cuts to allowances and travel. Nepal lifted the sweeping ban amid unrest and KP Sharma Oli’s resignation. In the Philippines, rallies were smaller; President Ferdinand Marcos Jr backed a 21 September protest and formed an independent probe. Systemic incentives persist. Andrea Chloe Wong, Lowy Institute, September 16