Asia Daily: September 17, 2024
News
China says it tailed a U.S. spy plane through the sensitive Taiwan Strait. On Tuesday, Chinese warplanes shadowed a U.S. P-8A Poseidon patrol and reconnaissance aircraft through the Taiwan Strait, as reported by the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command. China claims the Taiwan Strait and monitors foreign military activities closely, emphasizing its stance on Taiwan as part of its territory. The U.S. Navy has not commented on the incident. This follows Germany’s recent transit of warships through the strait, which drew criticism from Beijing. Simina Mistreanu, AP News, September 17
Japan's top diplomat to visit US amid ruling party chief race. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa will briefly visit the United States next week to attend U.N.-related meetings ahead of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election on September 27. Kamikawa is one of nine candidates vying to succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. During her visit, she will participate in ministerial talks with the "Group of Four" and other U.N. meetings in New York. The Mainichi, September 17
Uzbekistan signs customs agreement with U.S. Uzbekistan signed a customs mutual assistance agreement with the United States to enhance cooperation in customs enforcement and facilitate legitimate trade. The agreement aims to improve information sharing between the two countries to combat smuggling and other customs-related offenses, aligning with Uzbekistan's efforts to modernize its customs operations and integrate with international standards. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, September 1y
U.S. approves possible military sale to Taiwan of spare parts for about $228 million. The U.S. State Department has approved a potential sale of spare parts valued at $228 million to Taiwan, aimed at maintaining the island’s combat readiness amid increasing military pressure from China. The deal includes the return, repair, and reshipment of spare parts from U.S. government stock. Taiwan's defense ministry welcomed the package, emphasizing its importance for the safety and readiness of its air force equipment. Disha Mishra, Reuters, September 17
Central Asian leaders seek German expertise to build manufacturing base. During a visit by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, regional leaders expressed interest in leveraging German expertise to enhance their manufacturing capabilities. Scholz met with the five Central Asian heads of state in Kazakhstan, where discussions focused on energy cooperation and expanding trade. Germany aims to reduce reliance on Russian gas, while Central Asian countries seek German technological support for economic diversification, particularly in sectors like green energy and high-value manufacturing. Eurasianet, September 17
New Delhi’s top elected official resigns after being released on bail in a bribery case. Arvind Kejriwal, New Delhi’s chief minister and a key opposition figure, resigned after being released on bail following his March arrest for allegedly receiving bribes from a liquor distributor. Kejriwal, a critic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has denied the charges, calling them politically motivated. His party appointed Atishi, an ally, as his successor. Kejriwal has stated he may return if re-elected in the upcoming assembly elections. Ashok Sharma, AP News, September 17
U.S., Britain, Australia consulting with S. Korea, others for possible AUKUS Pillar II cooperation: leaders. The U.S., Britain, and Australia announced consultations with South Korea, Canada, and New Zealand for potential collaboration on advanced capabilities under AUKUS Pillar II, which focuses on technologies like quantum computing and AI. This comes as AUKUS, a security partnership aimed at promoting a free and stable Indo-Pacific, marks its third anniversary. AUKUS leaders are also exploring maritime cooperation with Japan. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, September 17
Bangladesh opposition party rallies to demand a new election. Thousands of activists from the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) rallied in Dhaka, demanding a democratic transition and new elections. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus after former PM Sheikh Hasina fled the country, faces pressure to outline a timeline for elections amid ongoing reforms. The BNP and other parties are calling for elections while also supporting Yunus's reform efforts. Meanwhile, a crackdown on journalists linked to the former government has drawn international criticism. Julhas Alam, AP News, September 17
Myanmar military stepping up civilian killings and arrests, says UN report. A UN report states that Myanmar's military government has intensified killings and arrests since the 2021 coup, aiming to suppress dissent and bolster recruitment. The report estimates 5,350 civilians killed, including 2,414 between April 2023 and June 2024, with many deaths resulting from airstrikes and artillery attacks. Nearly 27,400 people have been detained, with abuses such as torture reported. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights urges referring these violations to the International Criminal Court. Emma Farge and Cecile Mantovani, Reuters, September 17
Pa-O armed group splits over Myanmar junta peace deal. The Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) has split due to internal disagreements in southern Shan State. A faction led by Khun Okkar, which adheres to the 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, formed the PNLO Splinter Group. Meanwhile, the faction led by Khun Thurein, who opposes the junta, continues to fight the regime. This division highlights ongoing tensions within the group regarding engagement with Myanmar’s military government. The Irrawaddy, September 17
Maintain presence in Escoda – Marcos. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. instructed the military to maintain a strategic presence in the Escoda (Sabina) Shoal after the recent withdrawal of the BRP Teresa Magbanua. The directive aims to bolster the Philippines' stance against competing territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea, emphasizing the importance of continuous monitoring, patrolling, and protection of the country’s exclusive economic zones. The strategy seeks to safeguard sovereignty and deter potential incursions by foreign vessels in the contested waters. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, September 17
Analysis & Opinion
Japan’s Central Bank Digital Currency should go big, not go home. Japan has seen a rise in cashless payments, with the cash-free payment ratio reaching nearly 40% in 2023. However, Japan remains a cash-centric economy, with cash circulation at 20% of nominal GDP, much higher than other countries. This is partly due to its aging population and the slow pace of digitalization. While many nations are exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), Japan is cautious. The Bank of Japan is researching CBDCs but notes political and demographic challenges in implementation. It suggests CBDCs could reduce cross-border transaction costs by simplifying payment processes and participating in global initiatives like Project mBridge and Project Nexus, which aim to streamline international payments. Sayuri Shirai, East Asia Forum, September 17
Beneath the surface of Pacific digital infrastructure investments. Digital transformation in the Pacific is driven by external powers, with Australia, the U.S., Japan, and China competing to build critical infrastructure like undersea cables. Australia has increased investment, while PNG is pursuing digital partnerships with China. China's growing involvement raises concerns about influence, especially in digital governance. Elon Musk’s Starlink could improve internet affordability, but privacy concerns remain. Australia’s new Cable Connectivity and Resilience Centre aims to address governance and cybersecurity gaps, as the Pacific becomes a contested space for digital control. Mihai Sora, East Asia Forum, September 17
US rate cut no cure-all for Asia’s woes and ills. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut may weaken the dollar, helping reduce inflation in Asia through cheaper imports. However, export-reliant economies like China, Japan, and South Korea could see reduced demand as their goods become more expensive in the U.S. Emerging Asian markets may face inflationary pressures if their currencies strengthen. While some central banks might lower rates, the region faces risks like asset bubbles and a complex economic environment ahead. Nigel Green, Asia Times, September 17
How a Harris-Walz Administration Might Handle Asia Policy. A Harris-Walz administration would likely focus on human rights in Asia, particularly concerning China, and support freedoms in regions like Hong Kong and Tibet. While it would adopt a firm stance against China, it would avoid the economic confrontations and military buildup favored by a Trump-Vance administration. Harris-Walz would strengthen partnerships like the Quad and support Taiwan's defense, while balancing human rights advocacy with strategic cooperation across Asia. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, September 17
A Shrimp Among Whales: Singapore's Multifaceted Approach to the Indian Ocean Region. Singapore, positioned strategically between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, navigates tensions in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by balancing its security, economic, and environmental interests. While protecting vital trade routes and participating in maritime security efforts, Singapore also focuses on climate change and regional collaboration. Through partnerships with major powers and involvement in initiatives like IORA, Singapore improves its resilience amidst growing global competition in the IOR. Xuan Ling Neo, CSIS, September 17
Competitiveness and Geopolitics: Why Thailand Chose Gripen Aircraft. Thailand's selection of Sweden's Gripen fighter jets reflects a blend of geopolitical strategy and internal military preferences. By choosing Gripen over U.S., Russian, or Chinese aircraft, Thailand balances regional competition and maintains independence from dominant global powers. Historical ties between the Thai military and Sweden's royal family also played a role. The decision helps modernize Thailand's air force while maintaining flexibility in geopolitical relations. Paul Chambers, Fulcrum, September 17
Data Leaks: Thai Government Tough on Private Firms, Soft on Public Sector and Cybercriminals. Thailand has begun punishing private firms for data protection failures, with JIB fined 7 million baht for a breach. However, the public sector remains largely unaccountable despite significant data leaks, including one affecting 20 million citizens. Concerns grow over cybercriminals on the Dark Web and the government's weak response to public-sector breaches. The need for stricter data protection across sectors is highlighted, with a call for stronger regulatory frameworks. Surachanee Sriyai, Fulcrum, September 17