Asia Daily: September 13, 2024
News
Vietnam's Typhoon Yagi death toll passes 250, scores still missing. The death toll in Vietnam from Typhoon Yagi and the resulting landslides and flash floods has risen to 254, with 82 people still missing. More than 820 individuals have been injured. Authorities are continuing search efforts, including for 41 people from Nu Village in Lao Cai province, which was devastated by flash floods. In another village, 115 people who had been listed as missing safely returned after sheltering on a mountain. UNICEF reports that around 2 million children are without access to education, clean water, and healthcare, and it estimates $15 million is needed to address the crisis. The Red River's floodwaters are receding in Hanoi, and insurance claims related to the disaster have reached 7 trillion dong ($285.36 million). Khanh Vu, Reuters, September 13
Indonesia's Prabowo in Hanoi says agreed to elevate ties with Vietnam. Indonesia's President-elect Prabowo Subianto announced that Indonesia and Vietnam have agreed to elevate their bilateral relationship to a "comprehensive strategic partnership." Speaking during his two-day visit to Hanoi, Prabowo highlighted the long-standing friendship between the two nations and expressed his commitment to enhancing cooperation. He is scheduled to meet Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on Saturday to further discussions. Reuters, September 13
Sri Lankans’ fury forced the powerful Rajapaksa clan out. Now its heir is running for president. Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and nephew of ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, is running for president in Sri Lanka, two years after his family’s political downfall. Despite the Rajapaksa dynasty's association with economic collapse and corruption, Namal is positioning himself as a reformist candidate promising to lead the country toward prosperity. However, skepticism remains high, especially among the Tamil minority, who suffered during the family’s rule. While the Rajapaksa name is linked with the civil war victory and infrastructure development, the family's return to power faces significant public opposition. Krishan Francis and Sheikh Saaliq, AP News, September 13
China hands PwC a 6-month ban and fine over audit of the collapsed developer Evergrande. Chinese authorities have banned PwC from signing off on financial results for six months and fined it over 400 million yuan ($56.4 million) due to its audit of the collapsed property developer Evergrande. The Ministry of Finance imposed penalties for "false audit reports" and serious audit failures, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission levied additional fines totaling 325 million yuan ($45.8 million). PwC was accused of failing to conduct proper due diligence, resulting in inflated financial reports. The firm has fired several employees involved and pledged to comply with the penalties. Simina Mistreanu and Zen Soo, AP News, September 13
China is raising its retirement age, now among the youngest in the world’s major economies. Starting next year, China will progressively raise its retirement age over 15 years to address its aging population and shrinking workforce. The retirement age for men will increase to 63, and for women, depending on their jobs, to either 55 or 58. Currently, men retire at 60, while women retire at 50 in blue-collar jobs and 55 in white-collar positions. With nearly 300 million people over the age of 60 and projections of 400 million by 2035, the reform aims to ease the growing financial strain on China’s pension system. Huizhong Wu and Emily Wang Fujiyama, AP News, September 13
China touts regional security cooperation at Xiangshan defence forum as US tensions loom. At the Xiangshan Forum, China's Defence Minister Dong Jun emphasized regional security cooperation, urging Southeast Asian nations to handle their own security and warning against external interference, indirectly referencing the United States. Amid rising tensions in the South China Sea, Dong stressed the importance of peaceful coexistence. Senior officials from several ASEAN nations attended, discussing disputes and advocating for peaceful solutions. While China has strengthened military ties with ASEAN countries, challenges remain as some nations feel pressured by Beijing’s growing military presence. Amber Wang, Hayley Wong, Seong Hyeon Choi, South China Morning Post, September 13
Singapore’s defence cannot depend on who the next US president is: Ng Eng Hen. Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen emphasized that the country's security cannot rely solely on the outcome of the next U.S. presidential election. Speaking in Beijing, Ng stressed that Singapore must maintain its own defense strategies and work with regional partners to preserve peace, regardless of who becomes the U.S. president. He noted that while U.S. leadership can influence events, Singapore has consistently worked with both Democratic and Republican administrations. Ng also discussed the need for mechanisms to manage tensions, especially in the South China Sea. Lim Min Zhang, The Straits Times, September 13
LDP presidential candidates discuss political reform and economic challenges. At a joint press conference, nine candidates vying for the presidency of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party outlined their visions for addressing key issues like political reform and economic stagnation. Amid ongoing public distrust stemming from a political funds scandal, they focused on the need for tackling Japan’s declining birth rate, aging population, and sluggish economic growth. Discussions also touched on the country’s security challenges. Gabriele Ninivaggi and Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, September 13
N. Korea publicly discloses uranium enrichment facility for 1st time. North Korea has revealed details of a uranium enrichment facility, the first public disclosure of such a site. Leader Kim Jong-un called for increasing the number of centrifuges to boost nuclear weapons production. The disclosure follows intelligence suggesting North Korea is moving to underground uranium production. The South Korean government condemned the development, warning of stronger sanctions if nuclear tests proceed, as tensions rise. The Korea Herald, September 13
Doctors reject participation in gov't-led consultative body amid standoff over medical school quota hike plan. South Korean doctors have refused to join a government-proposed consultative body to resolve a dispute over the medical school admission quota hike. The doctors, represented by the Korean Medical Association (KMA), demand the government halt its plan to increase the quota for 2025 and 2026. They argue that the current system is unprepared to handle such an increase. Hospitals are already facing disruptions due to a mass resignation of trainee doctors, with military doctors deployed to fill gaps. The Korea Herald, September 13
German frigate transits Taiwan Strait, first in 22 years. Germany's frigate Baden-Wuerttemberg and supply ship Frankfurt am Main transited the Taiwan Strait, marking the first such passage by a German warship in 22 years. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that the transit adhered to international laws as the vessels took the safest route. China criticized the move as a provocation. The transit shows Europe's growing presence in the Indo-Pacific amid rising tensions over Taiwan. Taipei Times, September 14
Analysis & Opinion
China’s Space Technology Advances: Antarctica’s Relevance May Be Frozen Out. China’s growing space capabilities, such as its Beidou navigation system and ocean-observation satellites, are reducing the strategic importance of Antarctica for space operations. While Antarctica is still used for scientific purposes under international treaties, concerns remain about potential military applications. China’s space advancements, including future communication constellations and polar-orbiting satellites, are expected to further lessen the continent’s role in supporting its space systems. However, monitoring military activity from Antarctica remains technically challenging.
Claire Young, Lowy Institute, September 13
Indonesian Terrorist Group Jemaah Islamiyah Lays Down Arms. Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the Indonesian extremist group linked to Al-Qaeda, has officially disbanded. In a video statement on June 30, 2024, Abu Rusdan and other senior leaders declared the group’s dissolution and commitment to removing extremist ideologies from their educational institutions. The group also expressed readiness to collaborate with authorities. The announcement was confirmed by the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict. Alif Satria, East Asia Forum, September 13
US-China AI Competition at the Crossroads Between Dialogue and Decoupling. The competition between the US and China in artificial intelligence (AI) is at a critical juncture. As the two nations advance their AI technologies, they face decisions about whether to engage in dialogue or move toward decoupling. China is positioning itself as a global AI leader, investing heavily in large language models and autonomous systems, despite US sanctions. Meanwhile, the US is tightening export controls on AI-related technologies, aiming to curb China's progress. Both countries are balancing the risks of decoupling with potential collaboration in regulatory frameworks to manage AI governance globally. Emmie Hine, East Asia Forum, September 14
Why Is South Korea’s President Yoon So Unpopular? President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating has sharply declined since taking office in 2022. His unpopularity stems from ongoing disputes with the medical community over healthcare reforms, his confrontational stance toward the opposition-controlled National Assembly, and public dissatisfaction with his economic and diplomatic policies. Issues like the prolonged doctors' strike, strained relations with the Democratic Party, and his handling of North Korea have further alienated the public. Mitch Shin, The Diplomat, September 13
Evaluating the Taliban’s Economic Policies. The Taliban government has increased revenue collection and stabilized Afghanistan's currency, but these measures have had limited positive impact on ordinary citizens. While GDP has risen slightly due to favorable agriculture conditions, challenges remain. Tax burdens on the poor, minimal business growth, and a lack of public expenditure transparency raise concerns. Revenues from mining contracts have grown, but corruption and inefficiency hinder broader economic progress, with many Afghans still living in extreme poverty. Gul Maqsood Sabit, The Diplomat, September 13
Epic Yen Rally is a Lesson in the Lost Art of FX Intervention. Japan's yen is experiencing a rally, largely driven by anticipated interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a more aggressive stance from the Bank of Japan. While these factors have narrowed the gap in borrowing costs, Japan’s government has also played a role by intervening in currency markets. This intervention, although not solely responsible, has helped stabilize the yen’s value, with the currency appreciating over 10% against the US dollar since July. Daniel Moss, The Japan Times, September 13
How Japanese and U.S. Election Coverage Differs. Japanese media, due to strict broadcasting laws mandating political impartiality, tends to lack the critical engagement and depth seen in U.S. election coverage. In contrast, U.S. media provides extensive analysis, debate coverage, and commercialized political discourse, often influenced by the country's competitive media landscape. This difference in approach reflects broader cultural and regulatory distinctions between the two nations’ media systems. Kuni Miyake, The Japan Times, September 12
Backlash Against Fulbright University Vietnam: Are Propagandists Barking Up the Wrong Tree? Fulbright University Vietnam (FUV) has faced criticism from pro-government groups accusing it of fostering Western influence and dissent following a controversy over a commencement parade that omitted the national flag. The attacks, amplified online, reflect fears of foreign intervention in youth-led movements. Despite the backlash, the Vietnamese government reaffirmed its support for FUV, emphasizing its role in strengthening US-Vietnam relations. Dien Nguyen An Luong, Fulcrum, September 13