Asia Daily: September 12, 2024
News
Japan ruling party leadership race begins with record 9 candidates. A record nine candidates have launched campaigns to succeed Fumio Kishida as the leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and become the next prime minister. The election, set for September 27, follows a slush funds scandal that has disbanded most LDP factions. Key issues include economic challenges, security threats from China and North Korea, and potential constitutional reforms. The winner will be determined by votes from LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members. Noriyuki Suzuki, Kyodo News, September 12
North Korea discloses a uranium enrichment facility as Kim calls for more nuclear weapons. North Korea revealed a facility for producing weapons-grade uranium, with leader Kim Jong Un pushing for an increase in nuclear weapons production. During a visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute, Kim inspected uranium enrichment processes and called for the expansion of centrifuge capabilities. This marks the first public disclosure of such a facility since 2010 and appears aimed at pressuring the U.S. and allies. Hyung-jin Kim and Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, September 12
Yoon's approval rating sinks to lowest point since taking office. President Yoon Suk Yeol's approval rating dropped to 20 percent, the lowest since his term began in May 2022, according to a Gallup Korea poll. His negative assessment rose to 70 percent, attributed to dissatisfaction with his handling of medical school quotas, economic issues, and perceived lack of communication. The ruling People Power Party's approval also declined to 28 percent, its lowest under Yoon. The poll, surveying 1,002 adults, has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, September 12
Evergrande Chairman kept in special Shenzhen detention center. Hui Ka Yan, chairman of China Evergrande Group, has been moved to a special detention center in Shenzhen amid the company’s financial crisis. Hui, who has not been seen publicly since his arrest a year ago, was fined $6.6 million for securities fraud and barred from the market for life. Initially under house surveillance in Beijing, he was transferred to Shenzhen to facilitate communication with Evergrande executives. Clare Jim and Julie Zhu, Reuters, September 12
Chinese, Myanmar junta’s police forces ramp up cooperation. China and Myanmar's junta have enhanced their police cooperation by signing agreements for establishing a joint police cooperation center and providing equipment worth 5 million yuan. The cooperation includes security measures for Chinese projects in Myanmar, joint crackdowns on online scams, and the transfer of Chinese fugitives. This collaboration comes amid the junta's plans to expand security forces and regain control of territories lost to ethnic armies. The Irrawaddy, September 12
U.S. to host Quad grouping summit on Sept. 21: White House. President Joe Biden will host a summit with the leaders of Japan, Australia, and India in Delaware on September 21. The discussions will focus on key issues in the Indo-Pacific region, including maritime security, disaster response, clean energy, and cybersecurity. This marks the annual Quad Leaders Summit, which aims to enhance strategic alignment and support a free and open Indo-Pacific. The summit was moved from India to the U.S. due to the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Kyodo News, September 12
Tajikistan: Rights group documents persistent abuses in mountainous autonomous region. Amnesty International's report highlights ongoing government repression in Tajikistan's Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Region, targeting the Pamiri minority. The report details the use of force against protesters, unlawful killings, and widespread torture of detainees. It argues that the government's crackdown aims to undermine the region's autonomy, leading to socioeconomic marginalization and suppression of Pamiri culture, language, and identity. Eurasianet, September 12
Vietnam, India strengthen cooperation at UN. Vietnam and India agreed to enhance cooperation at the United Nations during a recent meeting between their permanent representatives in New York. The two countries emphasized their commitment to multilateralism and international law, and discussed collaboration in areas such as peacekeeping, sustainable development, and climate change. Both sides expressed support for each other's bids for non-permanent seats on the UN Security Council. Vietnam News, September 12
Yoon to visit Czech Republic next week to discuss nuclear power project. President Yoon Suk Yeol will visit the Czech Republic from September 19-22 to strengthen economic ties and promote South Korea's bid for a nuclear power project at Dukovany. He will meet with Czech President Petr Pavel and Prime Minister Petr Fiala to discuss nuclear energy, trade, and technology cooperation. The project, led by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, is worth approximately $17.3 billion. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, September 12
China’s Xi Jinping to visit Russia next month for the BRICS summit. Chinese leader Xi Jinping will attend the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October, marking his second visit to Russia since the Ukraine conflict began. The visit aims to strengthen ties between China and Russia as both nations seek to counter Western influence. During the summit, Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold bilateral talks to discuss various aspects of their growing relationship, including economic and military cooperation. AP News, September 12
Minister lauds DPR's commitment to fighting for women's rights. Women's Empowerment and Child Protection Minister Bintang Puspayoga praised Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) for its support in advancing women's and children's rights. The DPR approved a budget plan for 2025, focusing on reducing violence against women and children and improving services for victims. An additional allocation fund aims to help regions achieve national priorities related to women's empowerment and child protection. Antara News, September 12.
PM announces policies as opposition criticises progress. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra outlined new policies in parliament, including debt restructuring, energy price reductions, and a digital wallet scheme for vulnerable groups. Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut criticized the government for delayed implementation of key policies and ineffective management since the last election. The opposition labeled the administration's first year as wasteful, highlighting unfulfilled promises. Bangkok Post, September 12
China’s new Vietnam envoy calls for ‘patience’ in dealing with differences. China’s new ambassador to Vietnam, He Wei, emphasized the importance of patience and cooperation in managing bilateral differences during his arrival in Hanoi. He praised the relationship between the two nations as being like “comrades plus brothers” and expressed a commitment to strengthen solidarity and mutual trust. The appointment comes amid ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where both nations have competing claims. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, September 12
North Korea fires short-range missiles in first launch in two months. North Korea launched several short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast, traveling about 360 km, in its first such test since July. South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. condemned the launch as a provocation and violation of U.N. resolutions. The launch follows Kim Jong Un's recent pledge to increase North Korea's nuclear arsenal and may be linked to recent South Korea-U.S. military drills or weapons exports to Russia. Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, September 12
Indonesian leader spends final weeks of his term in unfinished new capital. President Joko Widodo will spend his final weeks in the new capital, Nusantara, as construction of the $32 billion project faces delays and funding issues. Jokowi emphasized the long-term nature of the move, projecting it could take decades to complete. With President-elect Prabowo Subianto taking office soon, there are concerns about the project's future. Nusantara aims to alleviate pressure on Jakarta but faces uncertainty in the next administration. Ananda Teresia, Reuters, September 12
Chinese ambassador Xie Feng lays down ‘red lines’ in US-China relationship. China's ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, outlined key "red lines" in US-China relations, emphasizing non-interference in Taiwan, democracy, human rights, and China's right to develop. Speaking at the Asia Society in New York, Xie warned against U.S. policies he sees as counterproductive, such as sanctions and containment, while calling for improved dialogue and mutual understanding. He stressed that conflict between the two nations would be catastrophic. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, September 12
Kyrgyzstan adds first three organizations to list of foreign agents. The Kyrgyz Ministry of Justice has listed the Eurasian Club, JIA business association, and Fauna and Flora International as the first non-profit organizations designated as "foreign agents" under a new law. This law requires NPOs engaged in political activities and receiving foreign funding to register as foreign agents. Organizations can have this status removed if they cease receiving foreign funds or engaging in political activities for 12 months. President Sadyr Japarov assured no persecution of these organizations. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, September 12
Analysis & Opinion
Chinese EV, a "Barbarian Invasion" of the West? The rapid growth of China’s electric vehicle (EV) industry has disrupted the global automotive market. In 2023, China became the largest exporter of new energy vehicles, with Europe as a key destination. This rise is not an unexpected invasion but the result of decades of innovation and capability-building. However, competition in the global EV market is intensifying, with China facing challenges from both geopolitical and technological fronts. Feng Kaidong and Chen Junting,
, September 12Europe's increasing reliance on China for critical drugs + Foreign investment + China-Africa. Europe faces growing dependency on China for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), with European drug producers closing factories due to Chinese price competition. China now supplies up to 80% of APIs used in Europe. Efforts to strengthen Europe's pharmaceutical resilience, like the Critical Medicines Act, face challenges in competing with cheaper Chinese imports. Meanwhile, China's green technology investments in Africa demonstrate its increasing influence across sectors. MERICS, September 12
The implications of India’s newest ballistic missile submarine. India has commissioned its second Arihant-class ballistic missile submarine, INS Arighaat, marking an improvement to its nuclear deterrence. This submarine strengthens India's second-strike capability, contributing to strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific. It also positions India as a more prominent security partner, especially in the Indian Ocean, while potentially intensifying nuclear competition with China and Pakistan. Protecting such submarines could strain India's naval resources, impacting its broader maritime operations. Samuel Bashfield, Lowy Institute, September 13
The implausibility of a Taiwan blockade. A Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan is deemed implausible due to historical failures of such tactics and the complex, far-reaching consequences. Blockades have never forced capitulation in warfare, and a blockade on Taiwan would likely trigger immediate military responses, risking all-out war. Additionally, it would disrupt global trade and harm China’s economy. The concept persists mainly due to political interests in justifying naval expansion. John Quiggin, Lowy Institute, September 12
Can China’s export surge save the day? China's exports surged by 8.7% in August, providing short-term economic relief amid domestic challenges like the property crisis, high youth unemployment, and weak domestic demand. However, experts warn that the growth may not be sustainable due to global economic slowdowns and rising trade tensions with the U.S. and Europe. This temporary boost could offer Beijing time to implement necessary structural reforms, but deeper issues in the real estate sector and consumer confidence remain unresolved. William Pesek, Asia Times, September 12
The LDP Leadership Race: Six More Join, a Field of Nine. Six additional candidates have joined the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race, making it the largest field in the party's history with nine contenders. Among them, two are women, and five are first-time candidates for the top position. The race will focus on who can restore public trust in the party ahead of Japan’s upcoming general elections. Public opinion polls show Ishiba and Koizumi leading in popularity. Sheila A. Smith, Council on Foreign Relations, September 12
What Is China’s Role in Combating the Illegal Fentanyl Trade? China plays a key role in the global fentanyl crisis as a major supplier of chemicals used to manufacture the drug, especially to Mexican cartels. Despite regulatory efforts, new fentanyl variants emerge rapidly, complicating enforcement. International cooperation, particularly between China, the U.S., and Mexico, is vital to curbing the supply chain, though the high demand for fentanyl in the U.S. remains a central issue. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Council on Foreign Relations, September 12
Camel wool can weave economic resilience in Mongolia. Mongolia's camel wool industry potentially offers a way to diversify its economy and increase resilience against external shocks like fluctuating commodity prices. Camel wool is a sustainable resource, well-suited for luxury markets, and could provide rural communities with stable income. However, the industry faces challenges in production quality, infrastructure, and international marketing. Investment in these areas, along with support for herders, could improve the sector's global competitiveness. Julian Dierkes, East Asia Forum, September 12
Historical memories haunt South Korea–Japan relations. Historical grievances, particularly related to Japan's colonial rule over Korea and wartime atrocities, continue to strain South Korea–Japan relations. Although recent diplomatic efforts aim to improve ties, lingering public sentiment in both nations hampers progress. The issue remains a large barrier to deeper cooperation on security and economic matters, despite the strategic need to address regional challenges, particularly with North Korea and China. Lauren Richardson, East Asia Forum, September 12
The Logic of China’s Careful Defense Industry Purge. China's recent purge of its defense industry is a strategic move by Xi Jinping aimed at modernizing the country’s military-industrial complex, not merely an anti-corruption effort. By targeting high-level officials resistant to military-civil fusion, Xi seeks to streamline production and enhance China's defense capabilities. The purge remains controlled to avoid hindering technological progress while addressing longstanding inefficiencies within the system. K. Tristan Tang, The Diplomat, September 12
The Fed is making Hong Kong's billionaire landlords anxious. Hong Kong’s property tycoons are feeling pressure from rising interest rates, which have led to sluggish home sales, empty office spaces, and demands for lease renegotiations. A potential rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve could bring relief, reducing financing costs for developers like New World Development. However, the city’s entire real estate market is grappling with low rental yields that fail to cover borrowing costs, furthering financial challenges. Shuli Ren, The Japan Times, September 12
Is Japan an attractive option for foreign talent from Asia? Japan is increasingly attracting foreign talent from Asia, especially young workers seeking better opportunities. Despite challenges such as low wages and high barriers like language and work culture, Japan's aging population and shrinking workforce make it an appealing destination for skilled workers. However, further reforms are needed to make Japan more accessible and competitive in the global labor market. Takashi Kumon, The Japan Times, September 11'
Rule by ‘Good People’ or Rule by Political Dynasties? Ethics and Moral Politics in Thailand. Thailand's political landscape is increasingly dominated by dynasties, with family ties influencing many cabinet appointments in Paetongtarn Shinawatra's government. This trend displays the unintended consequences of constitutional mechanisms aimed at promoting ethical governance. The reliance on family networks to navigate legal and political restrictions raises concerns about accountability, democratic pluralism, and the persistence of money politics. Napon Jatusripitak, Fulcrum, September 12
Has Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim Sold Out Over Ukraine?
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s visit to Russia, while advancing Malaysia’s interests, has attracted criticism for downplaying Russia's actions in Ukraine. Anwar’s diplomatic stance appears influenced by Malaysia's bid to join BRICS and frustration over Western double standards regarding Israel and Palestine. Despite his earlier condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Anwar now prioritizes geopolitical alliances and economic cooperation with Russia, complicating his foreign policy narrative. Ian Storey, Fulcrum, September 12
Indonesia's New President Will Be Active on the World Stage. Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia's next president, aims to elevate the nation's global presence by focusing on food security, economic modernization, and military strength. His leadership style blends diplomacy with a strong nationalist agenda, challenging Western trade practices while fostering relationships with China, the U.S., and the Global South. Prabowo seeks a balance between non-alignment and active global engagement to secure Indonesia’s economic and geopolitical future. Duggan Flanakin, The Geopolitics, September 12