Asia Daily: September 11, 2024
News
Lawmakers discuss plan to gradually lift retirement age in China. China's top legislature reviewed a plan to raise the retirement age, which has been unchanged since 1951 and is among the world's lowest. The current retirement ages are 60 for men, 55 for women in white-collar jobs, and 50 for women in blue-collar jobs. The proposed plan, discussed by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, aims to address the challenges posed by an aging population and declining birth rates. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, September 11
Hong Kong hits out at U.S. Congress for passing a bill that could close its representative offices. Hong Kong condemned the U.S. House's passage of a bill that could shut down its representative offices in America, accusing it of political interference and misrepresenting facts. The Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office Certification Act, supported by both parties, requires the U.S. secretary of state to assess the offices' privileges based on Hong Kong's autonomy. If privileges are withdrawn, the offices would have to close within 180 days. Kanis Leung and Elsie Chen, AP News, September 11
Election agency asked to investigate Thaksin's control of Pheu Thai. Thai Pakdee Party chairman Warong Dechgitvigrom has petitioned the Election Commission to investigate whether former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra illegally controls the ruling Pheu Thai Party. The complaint alleges that Thaksin influences the party's decisions, which would violate the Organic Act on Political Parties and could lead to the party's dissolution. The petition follows allegations that Thaksin directed key coalition figures and influenced government formation discussions. Bangkok Post, September 11
Bangladesh ramps up border vigilance as thousands of Rohingya flee Myanmar. Bangladesh has increased border security as at least 18,000 Rohingya refugees cross from Myanmar's Rakhine state due to escalating conflict between Myanmar's junta and the Arakan Army. Despite Bangladesh's strained resources and existing overcrowded camps, refugees continue to arrive, raising concerns over whether to register the new entrants. Bangladesh's interim government leader Muhammad Yunus has advocated for third-country resettlement as a long-term solution, though progress has been slow. Ruma Paul, Reuters, September 11
Disciplinary measures against several officials for Party rule violation proposed. The Party Central Committee’s Inspection Commission in Vietnam proposed disciplinary actions against officials from the Hà Giang Provincial Party Committee and the provincial People's Committee for violations of democratic centralism and working regulations, specifically linked to the Tuyên Quang-Hà Giang Expressway project. The violations resulted in significant risks of loss and waste of state funds. Disciplinary measures include dismissals and warnings for key officials. Vietnam News, September 11
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan caution citizens to steer clear of Russia. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have advised their citizens against traveling to Russia due to increased security measures and stricter migration rules imposed by Moscow. The advisories reflect concerns over the safety and legal risks for migrants, especially as Russia has intensified border controls and deportations. The economic impact could be significant, as many Tajik and Kyrgyz citizens rely on work in Russia for income. Eurasianet, September 11
N. Korea should be held accountable for damage from trash balloons: unification minister. South Korea's Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho called for North Korea to be held legally accountable for damage caused by thousands of trash-filled balloons sent across the border. Launched in retaliation against anti-Pyongyang leaflets from defectors and activists in South Korea, these balloons have caused incidents such as fires when landing on flammable surfaces. The current law does not provide a framework for compensation related to these provocations. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, September 11
Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa joins ruling LDP's leadership race. Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa announced her candidacy for the Liberal Democratic Party presidency to replace Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. If elected, Kamikawa would be Japan’s first female leader. She joins the race with backing from 20 LDP lawmakers, meeting the requirements to run in the September 27 election. Kamikawa aims to restore public trust after Kishida's decision not to seek reelection due to a slush funds scandal. Kyodo News, September 11
China and Philippines hold 'frank' talks on disputed Sabina Shoal. China and the Philippines engaged in candid discussions regarding the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea. China reiterated its demand for the withdrawal of a Philippine vessel and asserted its sovereignty over the area. Both sides agreed to continue dialogue through diplomatic channels. The shoal, located near the Spratly Islands, remains a point of contention in the South China Sea, a vital region for global trade. Reuters, September 11
Vietnamese, Lao top leaders co-chair high-level Party meeting in Hanoi. Vietnamese and Lao leaders, including Vietnam’s General Secretary and State President To Lam and Laos' President Thongloun Sisoulith, co-chaired a high-level meeting in Hanoi to discuss Party building, socio-economic development, and cooperation strategies. They reaffirmed the historical ties and mutual support between the two nations, emphasizing continued collaboration in various sectors and bolstering bilateral relations. Both sides agreed on the importance of deepening ties for peace, stability, and regional development. Vietnam News, September 11
Turkmenistan forces government employees to surrender passports. Government workers in Turkmenistan, including those in education and healthcare, are being compelled to surrender their biometric passports or prove they do not possess one. This directive was issued verbally to state agencies and aims to control the increasing number of citizens traveling abroad. University students are also affected, as the country seeks to limit the movement of its citizens amidst rising concerns over participation in foreign conflicts. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, September 11
Nippon Steel exec to meet U.S. officials over U.S. Steel buyout plan. Nippon Steel Vice President Takahiro Mori is set to meet U.S. officials to discuss its $14.1 billion bid to acquire United States Steel Corp., which the U.S. government is considering blocking due to national security concerns. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has flagged risks, despite the State and Defense Departments not sharing this view. The powerful United Steelworkers Union also opposes the acquisition. Kyodo News, September 11
Two Maldivian ministers who disparaged India's Modi resign ahead of Muizzu's Delhi trip. Two junior ministers in the Maldivian government, Malsha Shareef and Mariyam Shiuna, resigned after being suspended for derogatory comments about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on social media. The resignations occurred ahead of President Mohamed Muizzu's planned visit to New Delhi. The ministers had previously labeled Modi a "clown" and a "terrorist," straining relations between the Maldives and India, where geopolitical competition between India and China is ongoing. Uditha Jayasinghe, Reuters, September 11
S. Korea, Poland discuss ways to strengthen cooperation in defense industry. South Korea and Poland held a joint economic committee meeting in Warsaw to explore ways to boost cooperation, particularly in the defense sector, as well as in batteries, energy, and infrastructure. Both sides highlighted the strong economic ties, with bilateral trade reaching a record $10.1 billion last year. Poland hosts around 390 South Korean companies, contributing to 30,000 jobs. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, September 11
Brotherhood Alliance: Myanmar junta airstrikes on civilians increasing. The Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Arakan Army, accused Myanmar’s junta of escalating airstrikes on civilians, including children and the elderly, in rebel-held areas. The alliance has reported civilian casualties and urged international bodies to document and respond to these attacks. Recent strikes have targeted residential areas and critical infrastructure, further intensifying the conflict. The Irrawaddy, September 11
Russia to join Central Asia's unified energy system. Russia is set to connect its “System Operator” to Central Asia’s Unified Energy System, enhancing regional energy security and stability. The agreement between Russian and Uzbek energy ministries aims to address issues in energy supply and avoid disruptions. Inter RAO also plans to start exporting electricity to Uzbekistan this fall. The Unified Energy System, established in the 1970s, includes Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, with Tajikistan joining recently. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, September 11
Analysis & Opinion
The real risks of exploitation for Pacific workers in Australia. The Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme, though not modern slavery, exposes Pacific workers to exploitation risks in low-wage sectors like agriculture and meat processing. Loopholes in the program can lead to forced labor, debt bondage, and other abuses. Addressing these issues requires granting workers better exit options, improving complaint mechanisms, and strengthening co-regulation and enforcement. Ensuring a balance of power between employers and employees is crucial to reducing exploitation risks. Sophia Kagan, Lowy Institute, September 12
Will the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Reconfigure Regional Educational Cooperation? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is increasingly focusing on education as a key aspect of regional development. The 2024 Astana summit emphasized improving academic exchanges, harmonizing educational standards, and investing in digital education infrastructure across member states. Initiatives like joint research projects and cross-border university partnerships aim to boost educational quality and regional integration, but challenges remain, particularly due to economic disparities among members. Rafis Abazov, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, September 11
Understanding the Gap in South Korea’s Perceived and Indexed Economy.
While South Korea's official economic indicators show strong performance, including rising exports and stable inflation, public perception remains pessimistic. Factors like media framing, cost of living, and partisan polarization contribute to the disconnect between actual economic data and public sentiment. This gap can influence market behavior and policymaking, showing the importance of addressing both economic realities and public opinion. Je Heon (James) Kim, Korea Economic Institute of America, September 11
Timor-Leste: Twenty-Five Years After Independence. Timor-Leste has achieved notable democratic success despite challenges since gaining independence in 1999. The country still faces economic hurdles, including high poverty and unemployment. While Timor-Leste has close ties with both Australia and China, its leaders must balance these relationships carefully as the nation looks to capitalize on its petroleum resources and join ASEAN. The leadership remains dominated by figures from the independence struggle, though a younger generation is emerging. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, September 11
Blocking the Nippon Steel Acquisition: Politics Versus Policy. President Biden's decision to block Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel could undermine U.S. policy priorities. The move may weaken economic competitiveness, harm U.S.-Japan relations, and compromise national security credibility. Nippon Steel's investment could help modernize U.S. Steel, benefiting supply chain resilience. Politically, the decision seems aimed at appealing to voters in industrial states, though its effectiveness is doubtful.
Matthew P. Goodman, Council on Foreign Relations, September 11
The Mountain is High, the Lead Investor is Far Away. China's economic slowdown has constrained financial support for industrial policy, limiting capital allocation to strategic sectors. Despite Beijing's push for innovation, financial resources are funneled toward large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and sectors with overcapacity like steel and solar, rather than emerging industries. Risk-averse behavior from banks and private equity firms hampers support for smaller, innovative companies, threatening long-term growth prospects. Camille Boullenois, Endeavour Tian, and Laura Gormley, Rhodium Group, September 11
A tale of two futures for Taiwan. Taiwan's future is increasingly defined by its delicate balance between economic resilience and geopolitical challenges. As it faces growing pressure from China, Taiwan must deal with both domestic policy concerns and international diplomacy. The key to Taiwan's future lies in strengthening its democracy, addressing economic issues like energy shortages, and managing its complex relations with both the U.S. and China. Taiwan’s leadership will be crucial in ensuring the island’s stability and global standing, especially as it looks to align more closely with democratic values while safeguarding against potential Chinese aggression. Wen-Chi Yang, East Asia Forum, September 12
Modi must make moves to turn around India’s economy. India's economic growth, while significant, faces challenges due to reliance on high-end services, neglecting manufacturing and low-skilled labor. To unlock its full potential, India must embrace labor-intensive industries and pursue broader trade integration. Protectionist policies hinder India's competitiveness, and both major political parties lack effective reform strategies. Addressing these issues is critical for sustained growth and realizing India's global ambitions.
Le Dong Hai Nguyen and Sagar Rathi, East Asia Forum, September 11
Profile: New ROK Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun. Kim Yong-hyun, South Korea's new defense minister, has a military background and close ties with President Yoon Suk Yeol. He advocates for robust US-ROK security cooperation, extended deterrence, and addressing North Korean threats, while remaining open to South Korean nuclear options. His tenure is expected to continue focusing on US-ROK-Japan trilateral relations and improving military capabilities amid growing regional tensions. Kaitlyn King, Stimson Center, September 10
The Ko Wen-je Case Points to Deeper Problems in Taiwan Politics.
Ko Wen-je, former Taipei mayor and 2024 presidential candidate, faces allegations of corruption involving property developers exceeding legal floor area ratios (FAR) for personal profit. The scandal, centered on Taipei’s Core Pacific City, raises broader concerns about pervasive corruption in Taiwan’s politics, particularly in the property sector. Ko’s case shows systemic issues in political transparency, decision-making, and governance. James Baron, The Diplomat, September 11
The Anti-Political Dynasty Rule in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM): A Game Changer in Philippine Politics?
The upcoming 2025 BARMM elections will test the effectiveness of the region's anti-political dynasty rule, a provision aimed at curbing the dominance of entrenched political families. While the rule holds promise for fostering genuine political competition, its success depends on the political will and enforcement mechanisms. Challenges include resistance from local elites and the need for broader electoral reforms. Yasmira P. Moner and Aries A. Arugay, Fulcrum, September 11
Pope Francis' Visit to Indonesia: Lessons Beyond Interfaith Tolerance.
Pope Francis' recent visit to Indonesia focused on interfaith harmony and respect, particularly between the country's Muslim majority and its Catholic minority. His humble approach contrasted sharply with the luxurious lifestyles of Indonesia's political elite, prompting public criticism. While religious leaders embraced his message of tolerance, the visit highlighted ongoing challenges in addressing internal divisions and interfaith dynamics.
A'an Suryana and Norshahril Saat, Fulcrum, September 11