Asia Daily: September 10, 2024
News
Top U.S., Chinese military brass hold first call to stabilize ties. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's Admiral Sam Paparo and China’s Southern Theater Command leader Wu Yanan held their first video call to enhance military communication and reduce risks of conflict, especially in sensitive areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. The talks are part of broader efforts to improve U.S.-China military relations after significant strains, including incidents like the downing of a Chinese balloon. Both sides exchanged views on shared concerns, seeking to prevent misunderstandings. Laurie Chen, Ryan Woo and Farah Master, Reuters, September 10
Ex-health chief Kato announces bid to lead Japan ruling party. Former health minister Katsunobu Kato announced his candidacy for the Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election, pledging to double incomes and boost the economy. Kato, who served as chief Cabinet secretary under former PM Yoshihide Suga, is the eighth candidate in the race to succeed Fumio Kishida. He aims to end deflation and restore public trust through economic reforms and greater transparency in political funds. Kyodo News, September 10
India’s Manipur imposes curfew, cuts internet to quell escalating violence. Authorities in Manipur have imposed an indefinite curfew and suspended internet services following renewed ethnic violence and student protests. The state’s Home Ministry ordered a five-day internet shutdown to prevent the spread of hate speech and misinformation. Clashes between the Meitei and Kuki communities have persisted for over a year, with recent violence resulting in nine deaths and several injuries. Protests have escalated, with students demanding government action to restore peace and accountability from officials. Al Jazeera, September 10
Philippines logs record 203 Chinese vessels near its shores in 1 week. From August 27 to September 2, the Philippines reported an unprecedented presence of 203 Chinese maritime militia vessels and warships in its waters, particularly around Sabina Shoal, escalating the ongoing South China Sea dispute. Analysts view the increased activity as part of China's strategy to dominate contested areas. Incidents include collisions between coastguard vessels and confrontations over Chinese reclamation efforts. Experts urge Manila to strengthen its maritime defenses and consider joint operations with the U.S. to counter China's assertive tactics. Sam Beltran, South China Morning Post, September 10
Fresh petition to disband govt. A petition has been filed with Thailand's Election Commission seeking the dissolution of the ruling Pheu Thai Party and five coalition partners, accusing them of being influenced by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The complaint, filed by Nopparut Worachitwutthikul, claims Thaksin's involvement in party decisions violates political laws regarding external interference. The petition cites a meeting on August 14, where Thaksin allegedly influenced coalition leaders to nominate a new prime minister, challenging the parties' compliance with integrity and governance principles. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, September 10
Kyrgyzstan and Japan agree to cooperate in green energy. Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Energy, Taalaibek Ibrayev, and Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry, Ken Saito, signed a memorandum to collaborate on green energy projects. The partnership aims to develop sectors like renewable energy, hydrogen, ammonia, and carbon recycling. This agreement follows previous discussions between Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on enhancing energy cooperation, including opportunities for Japanese companies in Kyrgyzstan’s renewable energy sector. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, September 10
Putin casts naval exercise with China as bid to counter U.S. in the Pacific. Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted joint naval drills with China as a response to U.S. military dominance in Asia, warning against an arms race driven by Washington. The "Ocean-2024" exercise, Russia's largest since the Soviet era, involves operations from the Mediterranean to the Pacific, including testing new weapons and combat-readiness. Putin emphasized the importance of military cooperation with friendly states amid rising geopolitical tensions. Vladimir Soldatkin and Dmitry Antonov, Reuters, September 10
Ex-LDP faction accountant guilty of underreporting political funds. Hitoshi Nagai, a former accountant for a faction of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, received a two-year suspended prison sentence for underreporting 380 million yen ($2.7 million) from fundraising parties over five years. The Tokyo District Court found Nagai guilty, noting the underreporting occurred within a faction previously led by former LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai. This case is part of broader scrutiny of LDP factions accused of accumulating slush funds. Kyodo News, September 10
S. Korea holds defense ministerial meeting with UNC member states. South Korea hosted a defense ministerial meeting with U.N. Command (UNC) member states to enhance security cooperation against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. Co-hosted by South Korea's Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun and Canada's Bill Blair, the meeting included representatives from 16 nations. This is the second such meeting since last year, aiming to reinforce solidarity among countries sharing common values. Discussions focused on deterring war and maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, September 10
China to train 3,000 foreign law enforcement officers to protect overseas interests. China plans to train 3,000 foreign law enforcement officials to address global security challenges and safeguard Chinese interests abroad. Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong announced the initiative at the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum, highlighting China's efforts to enhance global security governance and cooperation, particularly along Belt and Road projects. The program includes sending Chinese police consultants to collaborate on cross-border crime and improve law enforcement capabilities worldwide. Phoebe Zhang, South China Morning Post, September 10
Top Vietnamese legislator meets President Putin in Moscow. National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Sept. 10. During the meeting, Man conveyed greetings from Vietnam's Party General Secretary, President To Lam, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. The discussions focused on enhancing cooperation between the two countries and their legislative bodies. Putin expressed support for strengthening the Russia-Vietnam comprehensive strategic partnership and invited Vietnamese leaders to visit Russia at an appropriate time. Vietnam News, September 10
Tripartite partners have 'heated' debates, says Tan See Leng, as WP questions independence of NTUC. Manpower Minister Tan See Leng stated that tripartite partners in Singapore engage in intense discussions, challenging the Workers' Party's (WP) concerns about the independence of the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) from the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP). The debate centered around NTUC's ability to advocate for workers' rights without bias. Tan emphasized that the tripartism model allows robust debate, balancing workers' and business interests while fostering long-term national benefits. Davina Tham, Channel News Asia, September 10
Myanmar Junta Airstrikes Kill Regime Detainees: Arakan Army. Myanmar's junta conducted airstrikes on Arakan Army detention centers in Pauktaw and Maungdaw townships, killing around 70 people, mostly regime detainees, including military informants and militants. The attacks also targeted a UN building and a clinic, resulting in additional casualties. The increased airstrikes follow junta leader Min Aung Hlaing's call for counterattacks to reclaim territory. Anti-regime groups condemned the actions as war crimes and urged international sanctions on aviation fuel and ammunition exports to the military. The Irrawaddy, September 10
North Korea’s Kim vows to make his nuclear force ready for combat with US. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has pledged to enhance the readiness of his nuclear forces against the United States and its allies amid rising tensions. During a speech marking the 76th founding anniversary of North Korea's government, Kim criticized the expansion of U.S.-led military alliances in the region. The vow comes as experts anticipate potential weapons tests by North Korea ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Hyung-jin Kim and Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, September 10
Việt Nam, DPRK pledge closer ties ahead of 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties. Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son met with DPRK Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Pak Sang Gil in Hanoi to discuss strengthening bilateral relations as the two countries approach the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic ties. They agreed to increase exchanges and explore cooperation in areas of mutual interest while aligning with international regulations. Both sides emphasized the importance of continued collaboration in global and regional forums to promote peace and stability. Vietnam News, September 10
Kazakhstan proposes to abolish compulsory military conscription. Activists in Kazakhstan have launched a petition to abolish compulsory military service, citing issues like hazing, inadequate training, and poor medical and psychological support for conscripts. They argue that the military should shift to a professional model to better address modern challenges. The petition follows a rise in tragic incidents, including suicides among soldiers, which have highlighted systemic problems within the Kazakh army. The petition needs 50,000 votes by Oct. 4 to be considered by the government. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, September 10
S. Korea, U.S., Japan agree to hold 2nd Freedom Edge exercise in near term. Senior defense officials from South Korea, the U.S., and Japan reaffirmed their commitment to trilateral security cooperation during the 15th Defense Trilateral Talks in Seoul. They agreed to conduct a second Freedom Edge exercise soon, following their first trilateral multi-domain exercise in June. The talks addressed growing threats from North Korea and included plans to update their multi-year exercise strategy by the end of 2024. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, September 10
Indian foreign minister Jaishankar says "not closed to business from China." India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stated that while India remains open to business with China, it depends on the sectors and terms involved. Relations between the two countries have been tense since a 2020 border clash, prompting India to scrutinize Chinese investments. However, there is growing support within India’s government to allow more Chinese investments in non-sensitive sectors to enhance domestic manufacturing capabilities. Shivam Patel and Tanvi Mehta, Reuters, September 10
Myanmar Junta Airstrikes Kill Regime Detainees: Arakan Army. Junta airstrikes in Rakhine State targeted Arakan Army detention centers in Pauktaw and Maungdaw, killing around 70 people, mostly regime detainees. The attacks also hit a United Nations building and a clinic, killing 17, including regime personnel and civilians. The strikes are part of a broader increase in military aggression by the junta as it seeks to reclaim territory. Anti-regime groups have condemned the attacks as war crimes and called for international action against the junta. The Irrawaddy, September 10
Analysis & Opinion
Why is Vietnam rapidly building on South China Sea reefs? Vietnam has intensified its land reclamation efforts on reefs in the Spratly Islands, expanding its presence in one of the world’s most contested regions. This development has escalated since 2022, with Vietnam focusing on building military facilities. While Hanoi’s official stance remains unclear, these activities are contributing to regional tensions with China, which also claims territory in the Spratlys. The ongoing work could bolster Vietnam's strategic position in the South China Sea. John Pollock and Damien Symon, Chatham House, September 9
The New Challenge to the SCO. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is facing a transformation as Russia and China change their focus from regional security to global ambitions. This change undermines Central Asian states' autonomy, exposing them to greater Sino-Russian dominance. Expanding membership, including India and Pakistan, has introduced internal rivalries, complicating the SCO's effectiveness. Russia’s war in Ukraine and tensions with Central Asian neighbors exacerbate these challenges, pushing the region towards increased subordination. Stephen Blank, CACI Analyst, September 9
Domestic Reevaluation is Needed Before Revitalizing Korea-Vietnam Smart City Cooperation. South Korea’s smart city projects in Vietnam, including major investments from companies like Lotte and Hyundai, are expanding. However, there is a need for improved governmental oversight and coordination among public and private sectors to ensure long-term success. South Korea’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport must improve inter-ministerial communication and cooperation to sustain smart city development in Vietnam. Sea Young (Sarah) Kim, KEI, September 10
China’s ambitions for global AI governance. China is positioning itself as a leader in global AI governance by advancing its AI development while responding to external pressures like U.S. sanctions. Through initiatives like the Digital Silk Road, China seeks to build comprehensive AI infrastructure, emphasizing algorithm innovation and autonomous systems. Despite challenges, including data security concerns and geopolitical tensions, China is promoting AI as a key driver for economic growth and global influence. The country is leveraging forums like the World Artificial Intelligence Conference to showcase its commitment to overcoming technological restrictions and asserting its leadership in AI governance. Megha Shrivastava, East Asia Forum, September 10
Why India must dig in its heels on global tax deal. India remains resistant to global tax reforms proposed by the OECD, especially on issues like digital services taxes, which heavily affect multinational tech firms. The country views these taxes as essential to safeguard domestic revenue. Despite pressure from major economies to comply, India seeks a more favorable solution that balances global cooperation with its own fiscal autonomy. Ashish Goel, East Asia Forum, September 10
Is Change on the Horizon? Japan's Domestic Politics. Japan’s long-standing political dominance by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is being challenged, following corruption scandals and declining approval for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Despite attempts at electoral reform, opposition parties remain marginalized, and voter turnout, particularly among youth, continues to fall. These issues, coupled with ineffective policymaking, raise concerns about Japan’s political future and its role in regional stability. Kaito Elston, FPRI, September 10
Anarchy in Anyar: A Messy Revolution in Myanmar’s Central Dry Zone. The conflict in Myanmar’s central Dry Zone, or Anyar, is marked by intense factionalism and abuses among resistance groups. Allegations of extrajudicial killings, corruption, and violence by groups allied with the National Unity Government (NUG) have caused deep divisions. While the resistance remains united against the military junta, internal conflicts and public grievances threaten the NUG’s credibility and future success. Naw Theresa, The Diplomat, September 10
A new ‘Cold War’ with China might be the best hope for the future. The growing geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China is drawing comparisons to the Cold War era. While key differences exist, the current rivalry could be even more dangerous due to the lack of established rules and clear boundaries. This evolving situation poses great risks but could also prevent further escalation if managed carefully. Brad Glosserman, The Japan Times, September 10
Controversy on Indonesia’s Hajj 2024 Rekindles Conflict Between Nahdlatul Ulama and the National Awakening Party. The 2024 Hajj quota mismanagement has reignited tensions between Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and the National Awakening Party (PKB). Allegations of corruption in allocating Indonesia's Hajj spaces have triggered political friction between the two groups, involving NU Chairman Yahya Staquf and PKB leader Muhaimin Iskandar. This conflict reflects broader power struggles within Indonesia’s Islamic and political leadership. Syafiq Hasyim, Fulcrum, September 10
Synthetic Threats: The Potential Misuse of Artificial Intelligence for Extremist Propaganda in Southeast Asia. Extremist groups in Southeast Asia are increasingly using AI tools to generate propaganda, including AI-created videos and deepfakes featuring synthetic spokespersons. These AI-driven techniques make it easier to spread radical content, raising concerns about online security and extremism in countries like Indonesia and the Philippines. The region's regulatory gaps in managing AI’s misuse pose significant challenges to addressing this emerging threat. Nuurrianti Jalli and Irma Garnesia, Fulcrum, September 10