Asia Daily: October 31, 2024
North Korea leader says longest ICBM test 'appropriate military action' against enemies. North Korea conducted its longest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test on Thursday, an action leader Kim Jong Un described as a response to threats from adversaries. State media KCNA reported Kim’s justification, saying the test was a strategic signal to deter provocations. South Korea and Japan condemned the launch, which reached an altitude of 7,000 km over 87 minutes, before landing near Japan. The test also stirred concerns that North Korea might acquire missile technology from Russia in exchange for military support in Ukraine. Jack Kim and Kaori Kaneko, Reuters, October 31
Ishiba looks set to be reelected Japan PM as opposition votes split. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is poised for reelection as smaller opposition parties have opted not to back the main opposition leader, Yoshihiko Noda. This comes amid Japan’s political shift after Sunday’s general election, which saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lose its lower house majority. Although neither the LDP nor the opposition holds a majority, the Democratic Party for the People and Japan Innovation Party are aligning with separate candidates, a move likely to benefit Ishiba in a runoff vote if required. Kyodo News, October 31
Kazakhstan hosts meeting of Council of Foreign Investors. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev led the 36th Foreign Investors Council in Astana, focusing on the country’s “New Investment Cycle.” Tokayev highlighted Kazakhstan’s goal to attract $150 billion in foreign investment by 2029, emphasizing clean energy projects and an international consortium for nuclear power development. Agreements with global firms on green energy aim for 43 GW of new capacity. The council discussed ongoing support from international investors and collaboration through the Astana International Financial Center to enhance Kazakhstan’s investment appeal. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, October 31
PM hails outcomes of Vietnam-Qatar labour cooperation. During his official visit to Qatar, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met with Qatari Minister of Labour Ali bin Saeed Al Marri to strengthen labour cooperation. Both sides discussed advancing a formal labour agreement and establishing training centers in Vietnam to better prepare Vietnamese workers for Qatar. The Qatari minister highlighted a growing demand for foreign workers and expressed Qatar’s willingness to expand collaboration with Vietnam. Vietnam News, October 31
UN Security Council asked to meet on Monday on North Korea missile launch. The United Nations Security Council is expected to convene on Monday to discuss North Korea’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile test, according to diplomats. The meeting was requested by the United States, France, Japan, Malta, South Korea, Slovenia, and Britain. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the launch as a violation of Security Council resolutions. He emphasized that diplomatic engagement remains essential for lasting peace and full denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. Michelle Nichols, Reuters, October 31
War on drugs led to more crime, panel chiefs say. House quad committee leaders stated that the drug war under former president Rodrigo Duterte increased crime, citing Philippine National Police data showing a nearly 62% drop in crime rates since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office. Committee members Danilo Fernandez and Robert Ace Barbers highlighted a contrast between Marcos’ "comparatively bloodless" approach and Duterte's extrajudicial methods. While some, including Senator Imee Marcos, defended the former administration’s tactics as necessary, the current government focuses on reducing crime through preventive and rehabilitative measures. Red Mendoza, Bernadette E. Tamayo, and Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, October 31
Attackers set fire to the headquarters of a Bangladesh party that backed ousted leader Sheikh Hasina. Attackers set the headquarters of Bangladesh’s Jatiya Party ablaze on Thursday night in Dhaka’s Bijoy Nagar area, with reports of clashes between party members and the assailants. While no group claimed responsibility, Hasnat Abdullah, leader of the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement that led to Hasina’s ouster, called for the party's destruction. The Jatiya Party, Bangladesh's third-largest, has faced backlash for supporting Hasina's long rule. Former leader Sheikh Hasina fled in August amid anti-government protests, and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus now heads an interim administration. Julhas Alam, AP News, October 31
IFC provides $240 million loan to boost Uzbekistan’s renewable energy. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) announced a $240 million loan to support Uzbekistan’s renewable energy sector, financing a 1 GW solar power plant and a 668 MW Battery Energy Storage System by Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power. The project is expected to reduce annual CO₂ emissions by 1.3 million tons and generate 2,400 GWh annually, supporting Uzbekistan’s goal of 40% renewable energy by 2030. IFC’s investment aims to attract private investors and bolster Uzbekistan’s position as a renewable energy leader in Central Asia. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, October 31
Seoul City to allocate $34.7 bil. for 2025, prioritizing low birthrate, aging society challenges. Seoul plans a 48 trillion won ($34.7 billion) budget for 2025, prioritizing policies to address low birthrates and support the aging population. Key allocations include 1.1 trillion won for public rental housing targeting newlyweds and young adults and subsidies to ease family-starting costs. Seoul will offer 4,000 housing units for newlyweds, financial aid for newborn care, and funds to support infertile couples. Additional measures focus on elderly health, with new exercise facilities and expanded public care systems. Jung Da-hyun, The Korea Times, October 31
LDP, Komeito to start policy talks with DPP in bid for vital support. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito coalition plan to hold policy discussions with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) to seek backing for a new economic stimulus package and fiscal budget. LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama and DPP’s Kazuya Shinba agreed to discuss incorporating DPP’s proposals to increase after-tax income and lower gasoline tax. With the LDP-Komeito coalition short of a majority following the October 27 election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba aims to form a “partial alliance” with the DPP to bolster legislative support. The Asahi Shimbun, October 31
Hopes dim for new constitution before 2027. Thai lawmakers are unlikely to pass a new constitution before the 2027 general election due to delays in approving a referendum process. Disputes between the House and Senate on majority requirements have stalled progress. Nikorn Chamnong of the Chartthaipattana Party noted that even if approved, the lengthy process of drafting and ratifying a new constitution means elections will likely operate under the current 2017 charter. A joint House-Senate panel is meeting weekly to resolve referendum guidelines, aiming to conclude discussions by December. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, October 31
Indonesia to respond appropriately to South China Sea incidents, official says. Indonesia confirmed its stance on the South China Sea, pledging to protect its territory following disruptions by a Chinese coast guard vessel during a state energy survey. Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Roy Soemirat stated that the government would take appropriate actions, particularly under President Prabowo Subianto’s administration. This recent clash follows China’s broad territorial claims over the South China Sea, disputed by neighboring countries, and reaffirms Jakarta’s intent to secure its exclusive economic zone. Stanley Widianto and Martin Petty, Reuters, October 31
At least 14 killed in long-running land dispute between rebel clans in southern Philippines. Clashes erupted Wednesday in the village of Kilangan, Maguindanao del Sur, between two commanders from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front over a 290-hectare land dispute. Vice Mayor Abdillah Mamasabulod reported that as many as 19 might have been killed, though the military confirmed 14 fatalities and scores injured. The Moro Islamic Liberation Front, once the largest Muslim separatist group in the Philippines, signed a 2014 peace deal but retains some firearms while awaiting government amnesty and aid, complicating local security. AP News, October 31
South Korean officials block bid to send balloons carrying leaflets into North. South Korean authorities blocked a group of families of suspected North Korean abductees from launching balloons with anti-regime leaflets across the border. The attempted launch, occurring amid heightened tensions between the Koreas, was stopped by police near Paju, a border town. Despite a 2022 ruling protecting the practice as free speech, officials in border areas have discouraged it to avoid escalation. Paju’s mayor warned of penalties for future attempts, as border residents voiced concerns over safety and the disruptive nature of such actions. Hyunsu Kim, Reuters, October 31
Resistance armies poised to move on to central Myanmar. The Bamar People’s Liberation Army (BPLA), along with allied ethnic armies, is preparing to launch operations in central Myanmar after fighting in Karen and Shan states. BPLA leaders aim to collaborate with local resistance groups and People’s Defense Forces, particularly in Sagaing, Mandalay, and Magwe, to challenge junta forces. This expansion signals intensified resistance efforts as the National Unity Government mobilizes forces in the region. Local resistance leaders support the move but caution that unity is essential to avoid conflicts among anti-regime groups. Saw Lwin, The Irrawaddy, October 31
S. Korea to impose fresh sanctions on N. Korea in response to ICBM launch. South Korea announced new unilateral sanctions against North Korea following the launch of a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) toward the East Sea. The decision, made during an emergency National Security Council meeting, underscores South Korea’s intent to work with allied nations and the U.N. to enforce international sanctions more effectively. President Yoon Suk Yeol ordered a robust response, denouncing North Korea’s actions as threats to global peace and emphasizing a strengthened security alliance with the U.S. and Japan. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, October 31
Kazakhstan to establish special commission on NPP construction. Kazakhstan will form a government commission to oversee the construction of a nuclear power plant, engaging in competitive discussions with potential international partners, including China, South Korea, France, and the U.S. The commission, led by Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev, will evaluate factors such as budget, safety, construction timeframe, and fuel localization. Following a referendum supporting nuclear power, the commission’s findings will guide final decisions at an Energy Council meeting, with preliminary project costs estimated at $5 billion. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, October 31
The Europe-China Resilience Audit: Insights for advancing European resilience. The report examines Europe’s resilience towards China across four key areas—economy, security, politics, and society—showcasing diverse approaches among 11 European countries and emphasizing the need for coordinated resilience strategies. Stronger member state involvement, beyond Brussels’ efforts, is essential for managing China-related risks. Recommendations include expanding FDI screening, standardizing risk data, and strengthening political leadership and public communication. Sweden and the Netherlands lead in resilience measures, offering valuable models but highlighting the need for comprehensive, EU-wide policies. Grzegorz Stec and Helena Legarda, MERICS, October 31
Understanding Indonesia’s decision to (eventually) join BRICS. Indonesia’s decision to join BRICS under President Prabowo reflects a move toward a more active, independent foreign policy. While maintaining neutrality, Indonesia seeks to benefit from BRICS' development opportunities without aligning strictly with Russia’s or China’s geopolitical agendas. Indonesia’s alignment reflects growing economic ties with China and a desire to engage in non-Western international forums. Klaus Heinrich Raditio, Lowy Institute, November 1
Economic Issues for Korea in the Next US Administration. The next US administration will impact Korea's economic engagement through policies like the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act, and trade deficits. These policies could either strengthen US-Korea collaboration on green tech, semiconductors, and EVs under a supportive administration or face obstacles under a less cooperative one. Trade agreements, export controls, and evolving security concerns also shape the dynamics of Korea's key industries within a changing US regulatory environment. Tom Ramage, Korea Economic Institute, October 31
Don’t Stop Believin’: The Inexorable Rise of German FDI in China. Despite increasing economic and political tensions, German foreign direct investment (FDI) in China, particularly in the automotive sector, has surged, constituting a significant share of EU investment in China. This trend contrasts with other Western companies' cautious approach, with German firms prioritizing local production and R&D to maintain their market share. This deepening dependency presents challenges for EU policymakers amid efforts to diversify economic ties and de-risk from China. Agatha Kratz, Danielle Goh, Gregor Sebastian, Noah Barkin, Rhodium Group, October 31
India's godmen cast a shadow on society. In India, self-styled spiritual figures known as "godmen" wield large influence, attracting millions of followers from all socioeconomic backgrounds. These godmen promise solutions to personal and societal issues, including health, poverty, and social inequality. However, many of these figures have been implicated in serious crimes, from sexual abuse to murder, and continue to evade full accountability, often leveraging powerful political connections. Despite the scandals, their influence remains strong due to entrenched beliefs, poverty, and a lack of public trust in conventional institutions. Balachander Palanisamy, East Asia Forum, October 31
U.S. Investment in the Philippines: More Than Meets the Eye. U.S. investment in the Philippines spans energy, IT-BPM, and semiconductor sectors, promoting economic resilience, clean energy, and job creation. Key initiatives include renewable energy collaborations, semiconductor manufacturing, and the Luzon Economic Corridor for regional infrastructure. With $6.2 billion in 2022 U.S. investments, the alliance is reinforced by strategic economic goals and the 123 nuclear energy agreement, supporting sustainable power access and regional stability. Japhet Quitzon, Gregory B. Poling, CSIS, October 31
Asia's Security Order According to India. India envisions a multipolar Asian security order focusing on multilateral cooperation to counterbalance China’s influence. Key aspects include partnership with ASEAN, the United States, and regional allies, support for maritime security through its SAGAR initiative, and advocacy for an inclusive “Asia Plus” framework. India aims to foster regional stability and strategic autonomy while addressing the needs of the Global South. Jagannath Panda, Richard Ghiasy, The Diplomat, October 31
Masayoshi Son may be the oddest of the oddball billionaires. In a recent biography, Masayoshi Son, founder of SoftBank, is depicted as a unique figure among tech billionaires, likening himself not to CEOs but to empire builders like Napoleon. Known for audacious investments and complex corporate structures, Son contrasts with peers for his control over numerous ventures within SoftBank's ecosystem. Despite criticism from investors over transparency, Son maintains a distinctive vision, positioning himself as a bridge between Japan and Silicon Valley. Adrian Wooldridge, The Japan Times, October 31
'Peak Japan' is now, so seize the moment, Japan. Japan is at a cultural zenith, yet struggles to leverage its global influence amid demographic decline and political uncertainty. Highlighting icons like baseball star Shohei Ohtani and Japan’s thriving creative exports, Japan should embrace this "peak" moment by fostering innovative policies that address long-term economic and social issues. Without capitalizing on this influence, Japan risks missing a critical opportunity to reshape its future. Joshua W. Walker, The Japan Times, October 30