China
Trump says U.S., China are going to come away with deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said he expects to reach a trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming meeting in South Korea. Speaking aboard Air Force One en route to Japan, Trump said he has “a lot of respect for President Xi” and may also sign a final TikTok divestment deal on Thursday. Satoshi Sugiyama, Anton Bridge, and Kantaro Komiya, Reuters, October 27
German foreign minister urges fair rare earth, chip trade with China. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called for fair trade in rare earth minerals and semiconductors with China, amid escalating tensions between Beijing and the European Union. Wadephul said his postponed Beijing trip would be rescheduled soon and reaffirmed Germany’s commitment to maintaining dialogue and a long-standing relationship with China. South China Morning Post, October 27
China fills U.S. void at ASEAN Summit with push for trade multilateralism. China urged regional leaders to defend free trade and reject protectionism at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s departure after announcing new tariff agreements. Premier Li Qiang called for deeper economic integration under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, while Canada, Brazil, and the EU sought new trade pacts amid ongoing tariff tensions. Rozanna Latiff and Xinghui Kok, Reuters, October 27
Canada’s Carney says will meet China’s Xi at APEC, open to Trump talks. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit and remains open to trade discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently imposed 10% tariffs on Canadian goods. Carney emphasized that Ottawa will reject any deal not serving Canadian interests while pursuing new trade agreements in Asia. Xinghui Kok and Mikhail Flores, Reuters, October 27
China’s foreign minister speaks with Rubio ahead of Trump-Xi meeting. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Beijing hopes Washington will “meet halfway” to prepare for high-level talks between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in South Korea. Wang described the leaders’ relationship as a strategic asset, while both sides discussed trade friction, Taiwan, and the planned framework deal. Xiuhao Chen, Ryan Woo, Michael Martina, and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, October 27
Japan
Trump to talk trade, security with Japan’s new leader Takaichi. U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo on Tuesday to discuss trade and defense cooperation. Takaichi is expected to reaffirm a $550 billion U.S. investment plan and defense commitments, while Trump will visit the Yokosuka naval base before traveling to South Korea for talks with China’s Xi Jinping. Tim Kelly, Reuters, October 27
Man accused of killing ex-Japan PM Abe to go on trial Tuesday. Tetsuya Yamagami, 45, will face trial three years after Shinzo Abe’s assassination in Nara with a homemade gun. He plans to admit murder while disputing weapons-related charges. Proceedings begin Tuesday afternoon with 17 additional hearings before a Jan. 21 verdict. The case follows revelations of ruling-party ties to the Unification Church. Kiyoshi Takenaka, Reuters, October 27
South Korea
Lee’s approval rating falls for 2nd straight week to 51.2%: poll. President Lee Jae Myung’s approval rating declined for a second consecutive week to 51.2 % amid controversy over housing market policies and a real estate scandal involving a senior official. Realmeter said skepticism over tighter loan rules outweighed support for Lee’s economic and diplomatic agenda, including his recent U.S.-China summit coordination efforts. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, October 27
S. Korea, Japan arranging summit talks between Lee, Takaichi Thursday: report. South Korea and Japan are coordinating a bilateral summit between President Lee Jae Myung and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Thursday, according to the Asahi Shimbun. The meeting would coincide with the APEC summit in Gyeongju and aims to sustain recent momentum in improving ties. Lee will also meet U.S. and Chinese leaders during the week. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, October 27
North Korea
Putin and North Korea’s foreign minister discuss strengthening ties, KCNA says. Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Moscow to discuss expanding bilateral cooperation, according to state media. Choe conveyed leader Kim Jong Un’s greetings and held talks with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, where both sides expressed mutual support on Ukraine and regional security. Joyce Lee, Reuters, October 27
News of North Korean soldier’s defection spreads quietly along China border. Residents in Hoeryong and Hyesan are discreetly sharing word that a North Korean soldier crossed the Military Demarcation Line into South Korea on Oct. 19, amid intensified surveillance. Conversations travel via trusted circles and Chinese-made phones. Locals cite harsher crackdowns since COVID-19 and say the episode is the first soldier defection in over a year. Lee Chae Eun, Daily NK, October 27
Thailand
U.S. expects Thailand to work with Cambodia on release of soldiers immediately, official says. The United States called on Thailand to begin releasing 18 detained Cambodian soldiers without delay, following Sunday’s enhanced ceasefire agreement signed by both nations in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump. A senior State Department official said all commitments should be implemented immediately and reaffirmed unchanged U.S. policies on Taiwan and North Korea. Daphne Psaledakis, Steve Holland, and Costas Pitas, Reuters, October 27
Thai exports beat forecasts in September as U.S. shipments surge. Thailand’s exports rose 19% in September, the fastest pace in over three years, driven by a 35% jump in U.S. shipments after tariff clarity and improved trade conditions. The commerce ministry raised its 2025 export growth forecast to 9.4–10.4%, citing strong U.S. demand and a new trade framework that removes barriers on most American goods. Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong Thaichareon, and Thanadech Staporncharnchai, Reuters, October 27
Myanmar
India launches cross-border drone strike on Myanmar village, killing child and separatist commander’s son. The Indian military conducted a rare cross-border drone strike on October 20 in Karm Way Lawri village, Sagaing Region, killing an eight-year-old child and the son of a National Socialist Council of Nagaland-K commander. Analysts said it was India’s second incursion this year, with Myanmar’s junta remaining silent despite civilian casualties. Aung Naing, Myanmar Now, October 27
China reopens four border gates in Myanmar’s Kachin State controlled by KIA. China reopened four border crossings in Myanmar’s Kachin State under Kachin Independence Army control after nearly a year of closure. The Kachin Independence Organization said the move aimed to ease trade hardships, allowing only food, cement, and iron exports while electronics and fuel remain restricted. Talks continue over reopening smaller checkpoints. The Irrawaddy, October 27
Cambodia
Lee, Cambodian PM agree to launch task force to combat online scams targeting S. Koreans. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet agreed to create a joint task force in Phnom Penh to investigate online scams and crimes against South Koreans. The move follows public anger over a student’s death linked to a Cambodian scam center. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, October 27
Philippines
Japan and Philippines boost security ties amid South China Sea dispute. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. agreed to strengthen cooperation, including in security, during talks in Kuala Lumpur. The 20-minute meeting took place alongside ASEAN-related summits. Marcos invited Takaichi to visit the Philippines in 2026, marking 70 years of normalized diplomatic relations between the two countries. The Manila Times, October 27
PH Navy hosts first-ever drone warfare summit in Subic Bay. The Philippine Navy opened its first Drone Warfare Summit at Subic Bay, gathering over 3,000 defense officials and industry leaders from partner nations. The three-day event highlights the integration of drone and counter-drone technologies into defense modernization, with discussions on surveillance, logistics, and innovation to support a self-reliant national defense posture. Joanna Rose Aglibot, Philippine Daily Inquirer, October 28
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan and EU sign landmark Enhanced Partnership Agreement in Brussels. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev visited Brussels for the signing of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, replacing the 1996 accord and expanding collaboration in trade, investment, environment, and technology. The EU and Uzbekistan also agreed to pursue €10 billion in new projects across key industries, while Mirziyoyev met King Philippe to discuss growing bilateral ties. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, October 27
Uzbek militants become mediators in Syria stand-off. Ethnic Uzbek fighters in Syria helped broker a truce between the Islamist group Fiqrat al-Ghuraba and Syrian government forces after clashes in Idlib province. The agreement, reached with mediation by Uzbek and Turkistan Islamic Party members, included a withdrawal of heavy weapons and efforts to locate militant leader Omar Diaby. The Times of Central Asia, October 27
East Asia
Mutual suspense: The Xi–Trump bargain that no one fully trusts. Two days of talks in Kuala Lumpur on 26 October produced a “very successful framework” and cleared the way for a late-October meeting in South Korea between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. Washington paired engagement with pressure: a 24 October probe into Phase One compliance and hints of curbs on exports of items using U.S. software. Stated priorities include easier access to rare earths, large purchases of U.S. soybeans, and increased U.S. energy sales at Russia’s expense. Beijing tightened rare-earth controls and kept a firm line on farm imports to raise leverage, while signaling openness to step-by-step concessions on fentanyl, agriculture, energy, and export rules for reciprocal tariff and tech relief. Durable strategic rivalry, however, still shadows any deal. Yu Zeyuan, ThinkChina, October 27
China Can Fight a Trade War, but Its Real Test Is Growth Reform. Since the April 1 “Liberation Day” tariff, Beijing has countered with diversification, tech self-reliance, export-control responses, RMB-based expansion, and tariff concessions. Headline GDP grew 5.3 percent in the first half of 2025, direct shipments to the United States fell 27 percent, yet exports rose 8.3 percent as flows rerouted, lifting ASEAN’s share to 20 percent while America’s dropped to 10 percent. Exporters cut costs and expand production abroad to preserve access. Policy backs consumption and stability. The RMB held around 7.2–7.3 as PBOC eased. The harder task is structural reform to sustainably raise household income, revive private confidence, and move beyond investment-led growth. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Council on Foreign Relations, October 27
China’s trade bullying on rare earths, other items can be stopped. Beijing escalated coercive tools with sanctions on five U.S. subsidiaries of a Korean shipbuilder and sweeping 9 October rare-earth export controls, citing national security. The pattern is long-running: since 1997, 23 government-level cases and 582 corporate targets have faced pressure, from Philippine bananas to Australian wine, alongside retaliation toward major U.S. firms. A proposed remedy is collective economic deterrence: partners pledge to answer coercion against one with proportional measures by all, using 600 dependence-critical goods and nickel-related inputs that China imports heavily. Europe’s Anti-Coercion Instrument offers precedent; a broader coalition in the Indo-Pacific and the United States would raise costs and discourage future intimidation. Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, and Andy Lim, The Washington Post, October 27
China Needs a Consumption Target. Preparations for the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan stress technological ascendancy and “new productive forces,” yet durable rebalancing requires a concrete objective for household demand. Setting a consumption share target of 50% of GDP by 2035 would anchor policy design, change incentives beyond industry-heavy expansion, and lift the household income share over time. A measurable benchmark would guide tax, social-safety-net, credit, and labor-market reforms toward boosting spending, rather than relying on production subsidies or investment surges. Establishing such a yardstick during the planning cycle would signal commitment to a more sustainable growth model, better align macro objectives with demographic headwinds, and reduce vulnerability to external shocks by broadening domestic drivers of activity. Stephen S. Roach, Project Syndicate, October 27
Trump’s China Deal May Avert a Crisis of His Own Making. U.S. officials tout a framework for leaders to discuss in South Korea that trades a pause or rollback of tariffs for Chinese steps: delayed rare-earth licensing, soybean purchases, and cooperation on fentanyl precursors. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a 100-percent tariff increase for November 1 had been averted. Analysts note the pattern of “escalate to de-escalate,” with truces that restore the status quo and leave structural disputes untouched. Businesses remain exposed to conflicting directives and disrupted supplies, with factories weeks from running out of rare-earth inputs. Markets rallied on the prospect of relief, yet the underlying contest—technology controls, entity listings, and retaliatory probes—keeps the relationship volatile. Ana Swanson, The New York Times, October 27
Xi Jinping’s latest purge: paranoid or purposeful? Empty rows at the recent plenum signaled extensive dismissals: 37 of 205 Central Committee members were absent, amid accusations ranging from corruption to disloyalty. The crackdown’s center of gravity is the military. Nine generals were expelled this month, bringing removals since Xi took power to at least 22, an unprecedented scale in the reform era. Analysts debate meaning and effects: vacancies on the Central Military Commission, dampened initiative, and wider bureaucratic caution may hinder policy execution; a contrary view holds that rooting out graft, including alleged missile-silo fraud, can ultimately improve readiness and discipline. The episode underlines Xi’s capacity to elevate or topple elites and suggests purges now function as a governing mechanism. The Economist, October 27
The BOJ must define a strategy for its ETF holdings -- not just its sales. The Bank of Japan plans gradual divestment of equity ETFs and REITs accumulated since 2010, with a reported book value near ¥37 trillion and market value of ¥70–80 trillion, roughly 7% of domestic capitalization. Annual sales of about ¥620 billion at market value (¥330 billion book) imply an exit longer than a century, leaving the central bank a dominant shareholder for decades. Clarifying stewardship over voting rights, enhancing transparency, and possibly shifting assets into a public-interest vehicle backed by perpetual bonds would reduce reputational and market risk. Reweighting away from cap-weighted indices toward innovation, human capital, and climate transition could better align portfolios with national priorities while cutting systemic exposure. Ken Shibusawa, and Matthew Poggi, Nikkei Asia, October 27
Trapped Between U.S. and China, South Korea Feels Trade War’s Pressure. South Korea’s hedging is fraying as President Lee Jae Myung concedes the old formula, security with Washington, growth with Beijing, no longer holds. China sanctioned five U.S. units of Hanwha Ocean for cooperating with investigations, signaling costs for alignment. A preliminary July deal with Washington linked tariff relief to $350 billion in investment and $100 billion in LNG purchases but disagreements over cash versus loans stalled a final pact, and Seoul sought currency swaps to cushion won volatility. Ahead of APEC, critics warn hardball tactics could push firms toward China. Export controls on high-bandwidth memory add pressure as Beijing backs competitors, raising medium-term risks for Samsung and SK Hynix. Daisuke Wakabayashi, The New York Times, October 27
South Korea’s bridge diplomacy faces its APEC test. The 31 October–1 November Gyeongju summit gives Seoul, under President Lee Jae Myung, a platform to act as a pragmatic convenor while navigating a strained order. Trump and Xi are expected, creating a window for limited compromise on tariffs, semiconductor curbs, and rare-earth measures. Beijing’s surrender of developing-country privileges at the WTO contrasts with its October escalation of REE export controls, a move likely intended to gain leverage before a leaders’ meeting. Possible trade-offs include softer enforcement or delayed restrictions in exchange for tariff relief, or a freeze on U.S. chip-equipment controls. Agenda pressure also includes North Korea, cultural restrictions, sanctions on Hanwha subsidiaries, and frictions over Hyundai workers and investment demands. Hannah Heewon Seo, East Asia Forum, October 27
Southeast Asia
Making Southeast Asia’s AI numbers stack up. AI investment across Southeast Asia is accelerating, from data centers to generative models, with commitments of US$55.2 billion in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand and projections above US$110 billion in 2028. Modeling indicates payoffs hinge on laborr-productivity gains: roughly +0.79 points in Indonesia, +2.5 in Malaysia, and +6.52 in Thailand—above recent averages. Outcomes rely on adoption speed, complementarity with skills and other technologies, openness to trade and investment, and creative destruction moving resources to efficient firms. Optimistic U.S. estimates foresee productivity boosts; skeptical readings warn of modest effects, implying Indonesia’s plans look defensible, while Malaysia and Thailand face risk. Pragmatic policy, not hype or gloom, is the differentiator for sustainable growth. Kade Denton, East Asia Forum, October 28
For ASEAN Members, Trump’s Bilateral Trade Deals May Be the Least-Worst Option. During the Kuala Lumpur summit, Washington unveiled bilateral deals with Malaysia and Cambodia. Cambodia will eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods and Malaysia will cut or remove duties. In return, the United States limits tariffs on Malaysian and Cambodian exports to 19 percent. Rules of origin are absent, anti-circumvention clauses apply, and Malaysia’s blank origin section signals forthcoming constraints on Chinese inputs. Commitments span standards, services, IP, labor, environment, digital trade, and state-owned enterprises, plus alignment on export controls and sanctions. Purchases and investment pledges feature, but no dispute settlement exists, enabling unilateral remedies. Governments view bilateralism as a stopgap under sharp pressure, facing Chinese pushback. Barbara Weisel, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 27