Asia Daily: October 28, 2024
Japan's government in flux after election gives no party majority. Japan’s snap election left Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition without a majority, securing 215 seats with Komeito, down from 279, as voters expressed dissatisfaction over scandals and economic issues. The opposition CDPJ gained seats but still fell short, creating political uncertainty and a potential leadership shift. Smaller parties like the DPP and JIP, while ruling out formal coalitions, could play a decisive role in ad hoc policy support. John Geddie, Tim Kelly, and Sakura Murakami, Reuters, October 28
Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar. A coalition of well-armed ethnic militias, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has advanced against Myanmar’s military over the past year, capturing significant territory and weakening the military’s control. The alliance launched Operation 1027 in late 2023, achieving rapid gains. Myanmar’s military is increasingly reliant on air and artillery strikes, which have raised civilian casualties. With China’s influence complicating the conflict dynamics, Myanmar faces a potential fragmentation if the regime ultimately falls. David Rising, AP News, October 27
Yoon says S. Korean delegation to visit Ukraine to share info on N.K.'s troop deployment. President Yoon Suk Yeol announced that a South Korean delegation will visit Ukraine to share intelligence on North Korean troops reportedly deployed to Russia’s Kursk region. Yoon, in a call with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, emphasized the importance of NATO’s efforts to prevent illicit military exchanges between North Korea and Russia. The South Korean delegation will also brief the EU on North Korea’s movements and coordinate potential countermeasures with EU and NATO leaders. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, October 28
Chinese investors to build new industrial plants and residential compound in Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn. Chinese investors have commenced construction on four major industrial facilities in Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn region, including a car assembly plant and an LED manufacturing facility, with total investments of $150 million. This development is expected to create over 1,300 jobs. Additionally, plans for a new residential compound, Tien Shan City, are underway to provide modern housing and government facilities. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, October 28
Kiribati elects pro-China President Maamau for third term. President Taneti Maamau won a third term in Kiribati’s presidential election, securing 55% of votes and reaffirming his pro-China stance since the country shifted diplomatic ties from Taiwan to Beijing in 2019. His re-election underscores domestic approval for policies tied to Chinese aid and development, despite concerns from Western allies over Kiribati’s deepening ties with China, including infrastructure projects and a recent military cooperation arrangement. PINA, October 28
Former Philippine President Duterte confirms existence of ‘death squad.’ Former President Rodrigo Duterte acknowledged the existence of a "death squad" during his time as Davao City mayor, though he offered mixed descriptions of its structure, initially attributing it to police then later to gangsters. Duterte appeared at a Senate hearing on his anti-drug campaign, where he admitted to instructing the squad to encourage suspects to "fight back" to justify lethal responses. Former police chief and current Senator Ronaldo dela Rosa, who managed Duterte's anti-drug drive, dismissed Duterte’s remarks as humorous. Karen Lema, Reuters, October 28
President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Arrives in Mongolia for a State Visit. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrived in Mongolia at the invitation of Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa, marking the first state visit in 16 years. During the October 28–29 visit, both leaders will review 30 years of diplomatic relations and explore new areas of cooperation in sectors like transport, agriculture, IT, and tourism. The visit will conclude with the signing of intergovernmental agreements to strengthen bilateral relations. Khankhuu.J, MONTSAME, October 28
Japan PM vows to maintain coalition makeup after election defeat. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ruled out expanding his coalition following a major electoral loss but indicated openness to adopting policy ideas from opposition parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), to avoid gridlock. The ruling coalition's seats dropped sharply from 288 to 215, marking the first loss of majority control in 15 years. With mounting pressures from within his party over a recent slush fund scandal, Ishiba is also preparing for a special parliamentary session on November 11 to elect Japan’s next prime minister. Kyodo News, October 28
Vietnam, UAE issue joint statement on upgrade of relations to comprehensive partnership. Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates elevated their diplomatic relationship to a comprehensive partnership during Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính’s official visit to the UAE. The agreement, aimed at enhancing cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, energy, and digital transformation, underscores the commitment to expand economic and defense collaboration while promoting regional stability. Vietnam News, October 28
Parties loyal to Uzbekistan’s president win parliament seats in election devoid of real opposition. Pro-government parties won Uzbekistan’s parliamentary seats in an election without genuine opposition, as only five registered parties—all supportive of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev—nominated candidates. The vote saw nearly 75% turnout, meeting the threshold for validity. International observers from the OSCE noted continued constraints on fundamental freedoms, limiting voter choice despite some recent reforms under Mirziyoyev. AP News, October 28
No new limits on Ukraine's use of US arms if North Korea joins fight, Pentagon says. The United States stated it will not restrict Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons even as NATO confirms North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region near Ukraine’s border. The Pentagon, estimating 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, noted that Russia might use them in combat support roles. The deployment has intensified Western concerns over expanding conflict scope and led Ukrainian officials to call for lifted restrictions on long-range strikes against Russia. Phil Stewart and Andrew Gray, Reuters, October 28
India-Cambodia tourism forum aims to boost tourism cooperation. The “Cambodia-India Tourism Forum 2024” is set to promote tourism and cultural exchanges, exploring the potential of Indian tourism for Cambodia and attracting Indian investment in Cambodian tourism. Scheduled for October 31 in Siem Reap, the forum will include tourism experts, private sector representatives, and stakeholders to discuss strategies for sustainable tourism development and mutual cultural engagement. The Phnom Penh Post, October 28
Ishiba to stay put; Koizumi resigns as LDP election chief. Following a major setback in Japan’s Lower House elections, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba confirmed he will remain in office despite the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing its majority. He attributed the loss largely to a political funds scandal and pledged to pursue party reforms addressing transparency. Election Strategy Chief Shinjiro Koizumi resigned in response to the election outcome, while LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama will retain his role. Ishiba ruled out immediate coalition expansion but signaled openness to cooperation with opposition parties on specific policies. The Asahi Shimbun, October 28
Yoon calls for efforts to make progress in major reform agenda. President Yoon Suk Yeol directed his senior aides to expedite reforms in pensions, healthcare, education, and labor, emphasizing the need for visible outcomes by year-end. Amid an ongoing strike by trainee doctors over medical school enrollment increases, Yoon highlighted medical reform as a top priority. In September, the government proposed raising the pension contribution rate from 9% to 13%, with adjustments by age group, marking a significant overhaul requiring National Assembly approval. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, October 28
House panel eyes plunder case vs Sara. The Philippine House Committee on Good Government and Public Accountability is reviewing potential plunder charges against Vice President Sara Duterte over ₱112.5 million in confidential funds reportedly used during her tenure as Education Secretary. Senior Deputy Speaker Aurelio Gonzales Jr. urged Duterte to clarify the funds' allocation following an October 17 hearing. The investigation coincides with similar Senate inquiries. Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, October 28
The leaders of India and Spain launch India’s first private military aircraft plant. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez inaugurated India’s first private military aircraft manufacturing plant on Monday in Vadodara, Gujarat. This Tata-Airbus partnership will produce the Airbus C-295 transport aircraft locally, with the first Indian-made units expected by 2026, fulfilling a $2.5 billion 2021 contract. The leaders will further discuss bilateral cooperation in trade, renewable energy, and technology. Ajit Solanki, AP News, October 28
Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry discusses nuclear plant construction with South Korea. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliev met with South Korean officials and energy companies to discuss potential collaboration on Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant. South Korean firms, including KEPCO and Doosan Enerbility, are being considered for an international consortium planned to support the project, which is expected to break ground near Lake Balkhash by 2035. A final decision on the consortium’s composition is anticipated by 2025. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, October 28
Europe's Economic Security Agenda Needs Far Better Techno-Industrial Intelligence. Europe must improve its industrial intelligence capabilities to secure its technology and reduce strategic dependencies on countries like China. Proposed actions include establishing Critical Tech Councils, improving public-private data sharing, and creating a centralized European center to monitor technology supply chains. Greater coordination and a flexible, multi-speed approach among EU member states are recommended to strengthen economic security and address technology risks. Rebecca Arcesati and Tobias Gehrke, MERICS, October 28
India’s Historic Shift in Attitude About a US Base at Diego Garcia. India has adopted a more accommodating stance toward the US base on Diego Garcia, recognizing the strategic advantage it offers against China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean. Historically, India opposed foreign military bases in the region as contrary to its vision of a “zone of peace.” Now, India views the US presence as a counterbalance, aligning with its broader defense and diplomatic priorities. Rahul Jaybhay, Lowy Institute, October 29
China’s Language Diplomacy in Papua New Guinea. China is increasing its influence in Papua New Guinea through Mandarin language programs, which target students, public servants, and military personnel. By promoting Chinese language education and cultural exchanges, China aims to strengthen bilateral relations and create a foundation for long-term engagement. This initiative aligns with China’s goals in the Pacific, but also raises geopolitical concerns among other regional powers wary of its expanding influence. Bernard Yegiora, Lowy Institute, October 28
Strengthening South Korea’s Global Value Chain Through Increased Robot Adoption. South Korea is focusing on improving its position in global value chains (GVCs) by integrating more industrial robots, particularly in electronics and automotive sectors. Current adoption rates are lower than those in China and Japan, slowing South Korea’s ability to move production closer to the final stages in GVCs. Policy recommendations include subsidies, research investments, labor retraining, and pilot programs to drive automation adoption and support economic resilience. Sunhyung Lee, Korea Economic Institute, October 28
Japan’s Ruling Coalition Rules No More. Japanese voters delivered a loss to the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, diminishing their majority in the lower house. The LDP must now form a new coalition to govern, likely seeking partnerships with parties like Ishin no Kai or the Democratic Party for the People. This reflects growing public dissatisfaction over recent scandals and political controversies. Sheila A. Smith, Council on Foreign Relations, October 27
Japan’s Lower House Election: An Aura of Unpredictability. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito, lost their majority in the lower house, posing a major challenge for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru. The LDP’s declining support reflects public dissatisfaction with recent political controversies and economic policies, leaving Ishiba under pressure to navigate internal party divisions and opposition gains. Forming a stable coalition will be crucial for Japan’s political stability and policy implementation. Nicholas Szechenyi and Yuko Nakano, CSIS, October 28
Seismic Strife: China and Indonesia Clash Over Natuna Survey. Tensions have escalated in the South China Sea as China Coast Guard vessels repeatedly intrude on Indonesia's Natuna gas field survey by PT Pertamina. Despite Indonesian efforts to expel Chinese vessels, confrontations persist, showing Beijing's assertion of its nine-dash line claims. Indonesia’s recent public documentation of these clashes may signal a shift toward transparency or assertive maritime defense under the new administration. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, October 28
After UNGA: How Did Central Asia Address (or Not) the Russia-Ukraine Conflict? Central Asian countries at the 2024 UN General Assembly (UNGA) largely avoided direct mention of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, showing a cautious, neutral stance. Speeches focused on broad support for global peace without naming specific conflicts, illustrating the region's balancing act between Western pressures to distance from Russia and existing economic ties to Moscow. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also declined invitations to join Russian-led organizations, indicating a subtle shift toward independent foreign policy choices. Bimal Adhikari and Alida Begezhanova, The Diplomat, October 28
Nobel Prize-Winning Research Highlights Cambodia’s History of Extractive Institutions. Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson have illustrated how colonial-era institutions shape modern economic outcomes. Their findings explain Cambodia’s entrenched extractive institutions, dating back to French colonialism and exacerbated under the Khmer Rouge and current leadership. Modern examples include Economic Land Concessions that centralize power and fuel organized crime, highlighting systemic challenges to equitable development. David Whitehouse, The Diplomat, October 28
Japan’s October Surprise: LDP’s Election Setback Reveals Deep Divisions. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a defeat in Japan's recent election, reflecting public discontent over scandals and internal challenges. Despite the loss, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has pledged to retain leadership amid political uncertainty. The outcome shows a change in voter sentiment, with large implications for Japan's political landscape and coalition stability. Kuni Miyake, The Japan Times, October 28
A General-Election Postmortem. Following the general election, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faces serious challenges as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba contends with internal divisions and recent controversies. With the LDP unable to secure a majority, coalition-building has become crucial to stabilize leadership and regain public trust. Analysts suggest that the swift election call contributed to the LDP's loss, exacerbating public dissatisfaction. Edo Naito, The Japan Times, October 28
President Prabowo’s Politics of Accommodation Might Mean a Short Honeymoon. Indonesia’s new President Prabowo Subianto has formed an extensive cabinet, showing political accommodations that could complicate governance despite high initial public approval. This cabinet, the largest since Sukarno’s, aims to unify major political factions but risks hindering efficiency and testing public patience if policy results are slow. Analysts suggest the extensive appointments may reduce Prabowo’s “honeymoon” period as he grapples with the demands of coalition governance. Kennedy Muslim and Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Fulcrum, October 28