China
U.S., China talks sketch out rare earths, tariff pause for Trump and Xi to consider. U.S. and Chinese negotiators outlined a trade framework to delay new U.S. tariffs and suspend China’s rare earth export curbs ahead of a summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the deal would extend the tariff truce and renew Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Xinghui Kok and David Lawder, Reuters, October 26
Ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, China says bombers flew near Taiwan. Chinese H-6K bombers carried out simulated confrontation drills near Taiwan days before Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in South Korea. Beijing said the flights tested air blockade and precision strike capabilities, while Taipei reported no unusual activity. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, October 27
Japan
Trump heads to Tokyo for trade, security talks before Xi summit. U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to Tokyo to meet Emperor Naruhito and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as part of an Asia tour focused on trade, defense, and investment. Following rare earth and peace deals in Malaysia, Trump is expected to finalize a $550 billion investment pledge from Japan and discuss defense expansion before a summit with China’s Xi Jinping. John Geddie, Tim Kelly, and Trevor Hunnicutt, Reuters, October 26
Japan, U.S. defense chiefs to meet Wed. under new Japanese gov’t. Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi will meet U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Tokyo on Wednesday, the first such talks under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government. The meeting will focus on revising Japan’s security strategy and raising defense spending to 2 percent of GDP, amid concerns over China’s military activity. Kyodo News, October 27
In diplomatic debut, Takaichi chooses continuity at ASEAN summit. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made her first diplomatic appearance at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, signaling policy continuity rather than confrontation. She highlighted Japan’s commitment to regional peace and stability and pledged stronger cooperation with ASEAN under the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” framework. Jesse Johnson and Gabriel Dominguez, The Japan Times, October 27
South Korea
S. Korea, U.S. unlikely to finalize tariff deal during APEC gathering: presidential official. South Korea and the United States are not expected to conclude a tariff agreement during this week’s APEC summit in Gyeongju, according to Deputy National Security Adviser Oh Hyun-joo. President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump are scheduled to meet Wednesday, but officials say negotiations remain incomplete. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, October 27
Kevin Kim formally appointed as acting U.S. ambassador to S. Korea. The U.S. Embassy in Seoul announced the appointment of Kevin Kim, a former deputy assistant secretary at the State Department, as acting ambassador. Kim will lead efforts to advance shared interests in defense, trade, and investment while strengthening the U.S.-ROK alliance. The embassy also thanked outgoing envoy Joseph Yun. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, October 27
North Korea
North Korea’s foreign minister to visit Russia and Belarus, KCNA says. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will visit Russia and Belarus at the invitation of their foreign ministries, according to state media KCNA. The trip follows growing diplomatic activity between Pyongyang and Moscow amid deepening ties that have included high-level meetings and military cooperation. Ju-min Park, Reuters, October 26
South Korean presidential aide says meeting between Trump and North Korea’s Kim unlikely to happen soon. South Korea’s deputy national security director Oh Hyun-joo said a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was unlikely in the near term, citing no concrete information despite speculation. Trump will instead meet South Korean President Lee Jae Myung during Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation events to advance trade talks. Jihoon Lee and Ju-min Park, Reuters, October 26
Thailand
Cambodia and Thailand sign expanded ceasefire alongside truce-broker Trump. The leaders of Cambodia and Thailand signed an expanded ceasefire during the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, witnessed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who mediated the original truce after a deadly border conflict. The agreement calls for troop withdrawals, prisoner releases, and landmine clearance while establishing ASEAN observers to monitor compliance. Trevor Hunnicutt, Reuters, October 26
Thailand, U.S. reach framework agreement on trade. The United States and Thailand announced a reciprocal trade framework under which Washington will retain a 19% tariff on Thai products while reviewing potential reductions, and Bangkok will eliminate tariff barriers on nearly all U.S. goods. Thailand also pledged to address export barriers, including approval for American-made vehicles. Orathai Sriring and Martin Petty, Reuters, October 26
Pheu Thai set to elect new leader. Thailand’s Pheu Thai Party will choose a new leader and executive committee on Friday after Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigned following her removal as prime minister by the Constitutional Court in August. Potential successors include Chaturon Chaisaeng, Julapun Amornvivat, Cholnan Srikaew, and Sutin Klungsang, with party members still deliberating over candidates. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, October 27
Vietnam
U.S., Vietnam agree to boost trade, tariffs on some Vietnamese goods may be removed. The United States and Vietnam reached a framework for a reciprocal trade agreement that keeps a 20% tariff on most Vietnamese exports while identifying products eligible for zero tariffs. Vietnam will expand market access for U.S. goods, adopt U.S. vehicle standards, and increase imports of American aircraft and farm products. Khanh Vu, Francesco Guarascio, and Mikhail Flores, Reuters, October 26
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh meets U.S. President Donald Trump on sidelines of 47th ASEAN Summit. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met U.S. President Donald Trump in Kuala Lumpur to advance the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, focusing on trade, investment, and recognition of Vietnam as a market economy. Both leaders agreed to accelerate talks on a Reciprocal Trade Agreement and expand cooperation under ASEAN-U.S. initiatives for peace and development. Vietnam News, October 27
Cambodia
Joint Declaration by Cambodian and Thai PMs on the outcomes of their meeting in Kuala Lumpur. Cambodia and Thailand signed a Joint Declaration reaffirming their commitment to peace, security, and border stability, witnessed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The accord includes troop withdrawals, demining, prisoner releases, and ASEAN observer oversight to enforce the ceasefire and restore diplomatic relations. Khmer Times, October 27
Philippines
Japan and Philippines boost security ties amid South China Sea dispute. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. agreed to deepen security cooperation during talks in Kuala Lumpur. The meeting, held alongside ASEAN-related summits, addressed regional stability and the South China Sea dispute. Marcos invited Takaichi to visit the Philippines in 2026, marking 70 years of diplomatic relations. The Manila Times, October 26
Indonesia
Indonesia seeks China’s support for global royalty system proposal. Indonesia asked China to back its proposal for a global copyright royalty system ahead of December’s World Intellectual Property Organization session. Justice Minister Supratman Andi Agtas met Chinese officials in Xi’an, where both sides signed new agreements on intellectual property cooperation and patent examination to strengthen legal and creative industries. The Jakarta Globe, October 27
Singapore
Singapore, China pledge to fight for free trade as Li Qiang visits city state. Singapore and China reaffirmed their commitment to multilateralism and open trade during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Singapore, the first by a Chinese leader since 2018. Li and Prime Minister Lawrence Wong agreed to deepen cooperation in green development, the digital economy, and maritime connectivity while opposing global protectionism. Xinyi Wu, South China Morning Post, October 26
Taiwan
MOFA expresses ‘grave concerns’ over Singapore remarks. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed serious concern after Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong reiterated opposition to Taiwan independence during a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. MOFA reaffirmed that Taiwan is a sovereign state whose future can only be determined by its people and urged Singapore to avoid comments that damage bilateral relations. Joseph Yeh, Focus Taiwan, October 26
East Timor
East Timor, Asia’s youngest nation, becomes ASEAN’s 11th member. East Timor officially joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations after a 14-year wait, marking a historic milestone for the small nation’s integration into the regional bloc. Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao called the accession a realization of a long-held dream that promises trade and investment opportunities for the $2 billion economy. Danial Azhar and Rozanna Latiff, Reuters, October 26
India
India and China resume direct flights as ties improve after 5-year suspension. India and China restarted direct flights following a five-year halt caused by the pandemic and border tensions, signaling improving relations between the regional rivals. The resumption, beginning with an IndiGo flight from Kolkata to Guangzhou, is expected to enhance trade and tourism as leaders in both nations work to normalize exchanges. South China Morning Post, October 26
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan: Trump to host U.S.-Central Asia Summit on November 6. Kazakhstan announced that a U.S.-Central Asia summit will take place in Washington on November 6, marking the tenth anniversary of the C5+1 diplomatic forum. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev thanked U.S. President Donald Trump for the invitation and endorsed shared priorities on peace, security, and traditional values. The Times of Central Asia, October 26
East Asia
Aligning APEC Beyond Trade Turmoil. Leaders gather October 31 in Gyeongju as rivalry, tariffs, and fragmented supply chains strain growth. APEC remains a venue for resilience, diversification, and rules-based coordination. The U.S.–China trade war reconfigured production through “China-plus-one,” with Vietnam’s exports nearly tripling and Taiwan and Thailand more than doubling. Recent tariff shocks and IPEF uncertainty heighten vulnerabilities. Priorities include an “APEC Supply Chain Data Corridor” for real-time disruption monitoring and customs interoperability, CPTPP expansion to Thailand, South Korea, and Indonesia with EU engagement, and replication of cross-border SEZs like Johor–Singapore. Clarifying transshipment rules and preserving IPEF crisis mechanisms would bolster certainty. Philip Luck and Richard Gray, CSIS, October 24
Trump should stay the course on China. Trump’s current approach signals pragmatic restraint: easing tariff threats, keeping student visas open, and pursuing a workable TikTok compromise while prioritizing mutual economic dependence. On Taiwan, he avoids an explicit defense pledge and hews more tightly to One China norms, declining a Taiwanese leader’s visit and shelving defense consultations to reduce immediate flashpoints. Risks persist as U.S. forces expand access in the Philippines, including medium-range missiles, amid sharper frictions in the South China Sea and accelerating congressional arms deliveries. Rather than sweeping breakthroughs, modest steps on tariffs, fentanyl precursors, and tech export frictions are plausible, ideally within a bilateral retreat that reframes ties as cooperative guardians for stability. Lyle Goldstein, Nikkei Asia, October 26
An Anatomy of Industrial Involution in China. Beijing acknowledges pervasive overcapacity and launches an anti-“involution” drive, even as the fourth plenum urges faster techno-industrial self-reliance. Central campaigns provide fleeting relief as local-level competition, rewarded on relative performance, perpetuates duplicated investment. The same dynamics that fuel excess also forge firms hardened by price wars, rapid scaling, and ultra-thin margins. China already produces 55% of steel, 57% of commercial vessels, 76% of batteries, over 60% of EVs, and 80% of photovoltaic products, limiting incentives to overhaul governance. New gluts are emerging in satellites, rockets, and humanoid robots, pushing companies to “go out” to foreign markets. Yanmei Xie, RAND, October 24
Xi Jinping is at his boldest and brashest. How will Donald Trump fare this week? Trump and Xi plan to meet on October 30 after the U.S. president’s tour of Asian partners, marking their first face-to-face in six years. Analysis of more than 14,000 speeches and writings shows Xi projecting increasing confidence: rising emphasis on “strong country,” “changes unseen in a hundred years,” and the “great enterprise” of national revival, alongside more references to Taiwan. Policy language has moved toward “high quality” growth, “technology,” and “artificial intelligence,” stressing an innovation-led agenda. Simultaneously, words like “hope,” “strive,” and “believe” fade as “govern,” “defend,” “protect,” and “order” surge, revealing a harder, more top-down tone that flirts with hubris. The Economist, October 26
Xi May Have Miscalculated on Rare Earths. Beijing’s new licensing regime asserts control over any cross-border sale of Chinese-origin rare earth magnets and materials, affecting sectors from defense to electric vehicles and telecoms. Thanks to dominance in processing, about 90 percent of global capacity, the rules reach deep into supply chains, but their worldwide scope also means Beijing escalated first, creating space for a U.S.-led coalition response. Washington has sharper tools than blanket tariffs, including tightening curbs on major Chinese technology firms, trimming imports of low-value consumer goods, and pressuring companies facilitating Russian oil purchases. Enforcing China’s rules globally will be difficult, mirroring challenges the United States faces policing chip flows. Quieter bond markets grant Washington additional room to maneuver now. Alasdair Phillips-Robins, Foreign Policy, October 24
Slow burn: China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and the art of endurance. The forthcoming blueprint privileges continuity over shock therapy, reaffirming “high-quality development,” state-directed innovation, and security-suffused economic management. “New quality productive forces”—AI, biotech, quantum, and advanced manufacturing—anchor an upgrade strategy steered by planning and subsidies, not market spontaneity. Momentum coexists with excess: EVs, solar panels, and batteries show gluts that depress prices, invite trade friction, and weigh on wages. Dual circulation aims to buttress domestic demand while preserving export muscle, hedging against geopolitical shocks. Security now underwrites prosperity through fortified supply chains, data controls, and food-energy resilience. Growth around 4–5% looks sustainable, albeit with persistent deflationary chill, as Beijing favors predictable industrial policy over liberalizing jolts. Alicia García Herrero, ThinkChina, October 24
China and Russia Do Not Pose the Same Hard Security Threat to Europe. Since 2022, China has moved from a perceived economic risk to a hard security challenge, materially enabling Russia’s war through political, economic, technological, and dual-use support. Beijing, however, distinguishes Ukraine from a hypothetical Russia–NATO conflict and seeks to avoid escalation that could close European markets or trigger nuclear risks, indicating support would not necessarily extend to a NATO war. China’s backing also deepens Russia’s dependence by flooding its market with goods and securing cheap energy, accelerating Russian deindustrialization. Europe should not conflate the threats. Instead, it should stress strategic divergences, especially over U.S. engagement in Europe, to raise costs for Beijing while preventing overt alignment. Justyna Szczudlik, China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe, October 27
Japan Deals With the Price of Playing to Trump: $550 Billion. Tokyo accepted lower-than-threatened tariffs for a $550 billion U.S. investment vehicle controlled by the administration; Japan must review and finance projects within 45 business days or risk higher levies, and 90 percent of profits would later flow to the United States. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi now balances funding huge sums abroad with expanding defense budgets, amid concern Washington may pick ventures misaligned with Japanese interests. Their meeting Tuesday will focus on reconciling investments with debt constraints and alliance priorities in Washington. The deal followed envoy Ryosei Akazawa’s deferential courtship, wearing a MAGA cap, phoning Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick late at night, and flying to Washington repeatedly. River Akira Davis, The New York Times, October 26
Japan’s rearmament reshapes security in Southeast Asia. Tokyo is reinterpreting post-war restraints: the 2022 National Security Strategy targets defense outlays of 2% of GDP by 2027, the FY2025 budget of ¥8.7 trillion, counterstrike capabilities including Tomahawk purchases, eased export rules, and Type-12 deployments show acceleration. Southeast Asian governments, notably the Philippines and Vietnam, leverage official security assistance, radars, boats, a reciprocal access accord, and a coast-guard vessel loan, without binding alliances. Risks include sharper Chinese retaliation, uneven deliveries from supply-chain bottlenecks, and governance gaps if hardware outpaces training and networking. Steering cooperation toward maritime governance, coast-guard support, radar integration, and search-and-rescue offers a pragmatic path. Nguyen Truong Giang, East Asia Forum, October 25
How Trump and Lee can ‘modernize’ the US–South Korean alliance. As Trump travels to Asia, unresolved security and trade items from the August summit, including debate over Seoul’s proposed $350 billion fund, frame alliance “modernization” as a test of Indo-Pacific priorities. Modernization implies greater strategic flexibility for USFK and posture updates, a once-contentious idea that Seoul increasingly links to broader Indo-Pacific stability and Taiwan Strait peace, already practiced through selective redeployments. Sustaining significant USFK levels, amid floated moves like relocating 4,500 troops to Guam, while enabling flexible deployments best supports deterrence. Conditions-based wartime OPCON transfer can increase ROK responsibility without weakening combined defense or extended deterrence. Andrew Yeo, Brookings, October 24
Southeast Asia
ASEAN leads response to the threat of global economic disorder. Malaysia, chairing the grouping in 2025, coordinated a non-retaliatory strategy to US “Liberation Day” tariffs and moved to convene an RCEP Leaders’ Meeting on 27 October. A Track 1.5 Geoeconomic Taskforce co-chaired by Indonesia and Malaysia monitors shocks and aligns collective responses that avoid beggar-thy-neighbour moves. Modeling shows the tariff regime would cut regional GDP by 2.3% and employment by 5.9%, with escalation slashing GDP by 11.1% and jobs by 25%, full RCEP implementation instead yields modest growth. The approach links economics and security while warning against discriminatory bilateral deals that erode MFN treatment. Shiro Armstrong, East Asia Forum, October 26
Trump in Kuala Lumpur: Upstaging ASEAN? ASEAN’s 47th summit (26–28 October, Kuala Lumpur) unfolds amid controversy over President Donald Trump’s attendance and his bid to headline a Cambodia–Thailand peace signing. Former premier Mahathir Mohamad and opposition leader Hamzah Zainudin demanded rescinding the invitation, while business groups cite U.S. market access and investment ties to justify engagement. Malaysia clarified that all dialogue partners were invited as chair, though Vladimir Putin will not attend. Washington reportedly seeks to exclude Chinese officials from the ceremony. Bangkok has rebuffed outside mediation and warned the Kuala Lumpur Accord needs rigorous, reciprocal implementation. Elevating Trump risks sidelining ASEAN centrality and China’s role in the July ceasefire. Kuala Lumpur must balance optics while advancing a near-complete U.S. trade deal and welcoming Timor-Leste, with chairmanship duties winding down now. Tang Siew Mun, FULCRUM, October 2
South Asia
Climate Change Is Destroying Indian Crops. Across India’s southeast coast, rising heat, stronger cyclones, and erratic rains are upending agriculture and forcing households to choose between migration and costly adaptation. Urbanization has climbed rapidly from 28 percent in 2000 to 37 percent in 2024, while land values spur the conversion of paddies into housing. Farmers report surging pest damage and pesticide resistance, with some abandoning fields for construction work. Cyclone Hudhud’s $3 billion toll lingers in Visakhapatnam, and intensifying storms continue to wipe out harvests and accelerate departures. Heat strains livestock budgets: feeding and care can reach 40,000 rupees for 10 cows. Agriculture remains central, employing over half the workforce and contributing nearly one-fifth of GDP, even as climate pressure deepens uncertainty. James Moules, Foreign Policy, October 24
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