Asia Daily: October 25, 2024
India, China begin implementing new border pact, ending Himalayan face-off India and China have begun implementing a military withdrawal agreement to end their standoff at the disputed Himalayan border, the largest progress since the 2020 deadly clashes in Ladakh. Troops have started pulling back from key points, including Depsang and Demchok, with plans to dismantle infrastructure built since the conflict's start. The agreement, reached at the BRICS summit, may allow cautious diplomatic and economic advances, though both sides maintain measured expectations. Krishn Kaushik and Mei Mei Chu, Reuters, October 25
Duterte might skip Senate hearing after all Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is reportedly uncertain about attending the October 28 Senate hearing investigating his administration’s anti-drug campaign. Initially signaling his intention to participate, Duterte’s attendance is now in question, as Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel III noted. Senator Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa, who led the drug war as police chief, is expected to testify on his role. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, October 25
Japan airs serious concern about N. Korean troops sent to Russia Japan expressed serious concerns on Friday regarding reports of North Korean troop deployments to Russia, reportedly for possible engagement in Ukraine. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi highlighted the regional security implications of deepening military ties between North Korea and Russia. According to Ukraine, North Korean troops, estimated to number fewer than 100, have recently arrived in Russia’s Kursk region following training. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not denied the troop presence, referencing satellite images allegedly supporting the claim. Kyodo News, October 25
ADB finances road reconstruction in Tajikistan The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved an $86.67 million grant for Tajikistan to expand and modernize the 49-km Dangara–Guliston highway. Built originally in the 1930s, the project will add climate adaptation measures, cycleways, and accessible facilities. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plans a $40 million co-financing loan, pending approval. The Tajik government has committed $23 million to the project, aiming for completion by 2030. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, October 25
Poland declined Ukraine's request for weapons from S. Korea: reports Polish President Andrzej Duda stated during a state visit to South Korea said that Poland has refused Ukraine's request to transfer South Korean weapons purchased by Poland, prioritizing the defense of Poland itself. Duda clarified that Poland’s newly acquired weapons, funded by Polish taxpayers, are exclusively for Poland's security needs. President Yoon Suk Yeol noted that South Korea may consider arming Ukraine, contingent on the depth of military ties between Russia and North Korea. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, October 25
Disengagement begins, but doubts remain over whether LAC buffer zones will be abolished India and China have initiated a phased disengagement process along contested parts of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, particularly focusing on the Depsang Plains and Demchok regions. However, there remain concerns among military experts and officials about the long-term status of buffer zones established in earlier agreements, with India’s Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi stressing the need to monitor these areas for possible encroachment. Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu, October 25
Vietnam and UK hold 10th Strategic Dialogue Deputy Foreign Minister Le Thi Thu Hang and UK Under-Secretary Catherine West met in Hanoi to discuss advancing cooperation in trade, climate, security, and education under the Vietnam-UK Strategic Dialogue framework. The talks emphasized joint efforts to implement the UK-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement and enhance areas like renewable energy and digital transformation. Both sides also addressed security challenges in the Indo-Pacific and reaffirmed commitments to climate action. Vietnam News, October 25
Inflation surge expected after China shuts border trade with Myanmar China has closed official and informal border trade posts with Myanmar following increased conflict in the region, especially near the Kachin and Shan states. This suspension is likely to drive up inflation and commodity shortages in Myanmar, heavily dependent on Chinese imports for essential goods. The shutdown follows escalated fighting between Myanmar’s military and ethnic armies, with significant impacts anticipated on Myanmar’s already fragile economy. Hein Htoo Zan, The Irrawaddy, October 25
China to offer Taliban tariff-free trade as it inches closer to isolated resource-rich regime China plans to grant Afghanistan tariff-free trade access to its sectors, including construction and energy, to foster economic engagement despite not formally recognizing the Taliban government. The move aims to tap Afghanistan’s mineral wealth to strengthen China’s supply chains, with resources like lithium and copper potentially aiding China’s industrial needs. While some Chinese companies already operate in Afghanistan, broader trade could face challenges due to security concerns. Joe Cash, Reuters, October 25
India and Germany look to bolster ties as Modi and Scholz hold talks in New Delhi Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held discussions in New Delhi aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation in defense, IT, clean energy, AI, and skill development. Germany, India's largest EU trading partner, seeks deeper ties as Western nations counter China’s regional influence. Modi reiterated calls for UN Security Council reform and expressed Indo-Pacific security concerns related to China’s influence. Sheikh Saaliq and Geir Moulson, AP News, October 25
House rejects S112 inclusion Thailand's House of Representatives voted to exclude lese majeste (Section 112) offenses from an amnesty bill intended to promote political unity, with a strong 270-to-152 vote. Parties like Bhumjaithai and United Thai Nation supported the exclusion, reflecting the coalition government’s stance to leave these offenses out of potential amnesty reforms. While other elements of the bill may still proceed, significant opposition suggests limited prospects for progress during this parliamentary session. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, October 25
Poll: 57% of LDP candidates say coalition with DPP is possible Facing potential losses in the upcoming Lower House elections, 57% of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) candidates are open to a coalition with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), while 48% see a coalition with Nippon Ishin as possible. Komeito candidates diverge sharply, with 96% opposing a coalition with Nippon Ishin and 67% against one with the DPP. While DPP candidates show openness to coalitions, their leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, has ruled out alliances with any party. The Asahi Shimbun, October 25
Taiwan court rules parts of parliament reforms unconstitutional in setback to opposition Taiwan’s constitutional court has invalidated key sections of recent parliamentary reforms backed by opposition parties, citing constitutional violations and procedural flaws. The reforms, spearheaded by the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party, aimed to enhance legislative oversight, but faced strong opposition from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which raised concerns of potential foreign influence. This ruling marks a legal setback for the opposition's efforts to reshape legislative accountability measures. Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, October 25
Russia says N. Korean leader Kim's visit to Russia possible next year The Kremlin indicated Friday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may visit Moscow in 2025, as Russia continues to deepen ties with North Korea. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described Russia and North Korea as "close neighbors" regularly engaged in high-level exchanges, with expanding cooperation in multiple sectors. The statement follows President Vladimir Putin's implicit confirmation of North Korean troops in Russia supporting its Ukraine operations. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, October 25
Prabowo’s China Challenge Around the Natuna Islands. Indonesia's new prime minister, Prabowo Subianto, faces renewed tensions with China as Chinese vessels continue to encroach near the Natuna Islands, testing Indonesia's stance under its new administration. Prabowo, diverging from his predecessor's approach of muted responses, has adopted a more assertive, transparent response, including publicizing a recent maritime confrontation. Although this signals Indonesia’s willingness to challenge Beijing's actions, Prabowo has balanced this with diplomatic engagement, holding recent discussions with China's ambassador on bilateral cooperation. Rahman Yaacob, Lowy Institute, October 25
South Korea-Indonesia: How a Viral Moment Could Have Real-World Consequences. A viral incident involving alleged discriminatory behavior at a South Korean music event in Jakarta has sparked criticism among Indonesians, potentially affecting Indonesia’s favorable view of South Korea. With South Korea being a major cultural influence in Indonesia, businesses face risks if perceived cultural insensitivity persists. This episode highlights the importance of cultural respect and corporate social responsibility in South Korea’s partnerships in Southeast Asia. Jeremiah Edbert Grifith Sihite, Lowy Institute, October 25
China’s Hospital Admission Paradox: Institutional Design and Perverse Incentives. China’s healthcare system faces unsustainable hospital admission rates, with 2023 seeing 301 million admissions, largely driven by structural incentives. Key issues include insurance policies that favor inpatient over outpatient care, extensive public hospital expansion, and problematic payment reforms. These factors create incentives for unnecessary hospitalizations, straining resources and complicating care for an aging population, necessitating urgent, comprehensive healthcare reforms. Yanzhong Huang, Council on Foreign Relations, October 25
China’s Unfinished Stimulus. In September, the People's Bank of China launched limited monetary policies aimed at countering deflation and stimulating the economy, but analysts argue that fiscal measures are essential for sustainable recovery. China’s incomplete efforts to stabilize the housing market and local debt have led to calls for a stronger, comprehensive fiscal stimulus. Experts suggest a large-scale package that could reset investor and consumer confidence by targeting housing and infrastructure development in underdeveloped regions. Christopher A. McNally, China US Focus, October 25
North Korea’s Troop Deployment to Russia: Proxy War Risks in Ukraine. Intelligence reports suggest North Korea has sent troops to Russia, likely to support operations in Ukraine, marking an escalation in North Korea-Russia ties. This raises global security concerns, potentially making Ukraine a proxy battleground for Korean Peninsula tensions. With growing Russo-North Korean military collaboration, South Korea and the U.S. view this as a threat, potentially changing the balance of regional power. Darcie Draudt-Véjares, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 24
BRICS Kazan Summit: Ambiguous Ambition in Pursuit of Multipolar World. The recent BRICS summit in Kazan highlighted the bloc’s goal to counterbalance Western influence by supporting a multipolar world. Discussions covered financial independence, such as a proposed BRICS Pay system, and geopolitical strategies to reduce reliance on Western institutions. However, internal differences—particularly between China, Russia, and India—pose challenges to unity. The Kazan Declaration reaffirmed support for reforming global governance but lacked specifics, reflecting diverse priorities that could limit BRICS’ effectiveness. Dr. Hasim Turker, Geopolitical Monitor, October 25
The Benin Model: China’s Africa Strategy in Action. China’s involvement in Benin showcases its dual approach in Africa, blending economic investment with military assistance to build strategic dependencies. By funding critical infrastructure and offering military aid, China has embedded itself in Benin’s development and governance frameworks, creating long-term reliance. This model, repeated across Africa, emphasizes China’s use of economic influence to secure political leverage, raising concerns about dependency among African states. Caleb Mills & Birgen Brimine, Geopolitical Monitor, October 25
Bangladesh's Student Politics: Storied History, Brutal Violence. Bangladesh’s long-standing student political scene, once a driving force for social change, has become increasingly violent, leading to public calls for its restriction. The government recently banned student politics in several institutions following protests that toppled Sheikh Hasina’s government. Proponents argue that banning student groups would curb violence, while critics fear it could stifle activism and fuel extremism. The debate reflects broader tensions about balancing tradition, safety, and democratic engagement in Bangladesh. Saqlain Rizve, The Diplomat, October 25
Johor and Malaysia’s Data Center Boom. Johor, Malaysia, has become a regional hub for data centers due to its proximity to Singapore and favorable infrastructure investments. With support from both U.S. and Chinese tech companies, the state hosts major facilities, drawing an expected $3.6 billion in investment for 2024. While the boom aligns with Malaysia's digital economy goals, power and water shortages remain pressing challenges, prompting local and national infrastructure upgrades to sustain growth. Grace Shao and Steven Lu, The Diplomat, October 25
Fraternity-Related Violence in the Philippines: Long Road to Justice. The conviction of fraternity members in the hazing death of Horacio Castillo III has shown ongoing fraternity violence in the Philippines, despite stricter anti-hazing laws. Patronage networks within fraternities often protect members from accountability, perpetuating a culture of impunity. Lawmakers are now proposing harsher measures, such as treating offending fraternities as illegal organizations, to curb hazing-related violence, though deep-rooted fraternity traditions and political connections pose challenges to reform. Josiah Patrick P. Bagayas, Fulcrum, October 25
Charting Its Discourse: Cambodia’s Naval Vessel Acquisitions from China. Cambodia’s recent acquisition of Chinese Type 056C corvettes shows its expanding naval capabilities and desire for maritime sovereignty. While some view this move as part of China’s influence strategy, it also meets Cambodia’s own security needs. The acquisitions demonstrate Cambodia’s approach to balancing foreign partnerships while maintaining strategic autonomy, as evidenced by welcoming international naval visits at Ream Naval Base. Vithoureakborndidh Chou, Fulcrum, October 25