Asia Daily: October 25, 2023
News
China sacks missing defence chief Li Shangfu with no explanation. In an unexpected leadership shake-up, China has dismissed Defence Minister Li Shangfu without offering an explanation. This comes after the sacking of Foreign Minister Qin Gang in July, further intensifying speculations about internal political shifts within China's top leadership. The back-to-back dismissals have raised eyebrows and led to speculations regarding China's strategic direction. William Zheng, Jane Cai, and Jack Lau, South China Morning Post, October 24
China’s ex-foreign minister Qin Gang stripped of last remaining state title. In a move that deepens his fall from grace, former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been stripped of his last remaining state title - that of state councilor. The decision is seen as a continuation of the Communist Party's action against him, following his sacking as foreign minister in July. The exact reasons for these actions against Qin remain unclear, but they point towards significant shifts within China's political landscape. Sylvie Zhuang, South China Morning Post, October 24
4 N. Koreans cross eastern sea border in apparent defection bid. Four North Koreans crossed the eastern maritime border aboard a small wooden boat, seemingly in an attempt to defect to South Korea. The individuals were promptly rescued by the South Korean military in waters east of Sokcho, 151 kilometers northeast of Seoul. The boat was reported around around 7:10 a.m. An investigation is currently underway to determine the exact motives behind the crossing and to confirm the identities of those aboard. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, October 24
M'bishi Motors to withdraw from China, invest in Renault's EV venture. Mitsubishi Motors has announced its decision to pull out of China and is set to invest €200 million in Renault's electric vehicle (EV) venture. This move is part of the company's strategy to revamp its global operations and strengthen its alliance with Renault and Nissan. The investment in Renault's EV venture signifies Mitsubishi's commitment to expanding its footprint in the rapidly growing EV market. Kyodo News, October 24
Washington state senator Jeff Wilson arrested in Hong Kong for gun possession and granted bail. Washington state senator Jeff Wilson has been arrested in Hong Kong due to gun possession. The senator was carrying a firearm registered in Washington but not in Hong Kong - he was entering Hong Kong as part of a weeks-long vacation through Asia. He was subsequently granted bail after authorities found the disassembled firearm in his checked luggage at the Hong Kong International Airport. Kanis Leung, AP News, October 24
Taiwan frontrunner assails China as Foxconn probe becomes election issue. William Lai, the frontrunner in Taiwan's presidential race, has criticized China for its investigation into Foxconn, one of the world's largest electronics manufacturers. The probe has become a significant election issue in Taiwan, underlining the complex economic ties and political tensions between Taipei and Beijing. Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee, Reuters, October 24
PH mulls legal move vs China. The Philippines is contemplating taking legal action against China over recent incidents in the South China Sea. This consideration arises amidst growing concerns and tensions surrounding the territorial disputes in the region between the two countries, as well as a shift toward a firmer stance vis-a-vis China from the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos. Javier Joe Ismael, Bernadette E. Tamayo, and Francisco Tuyay, The Manila Times, October 25
Infra push set to lure Chinese investments. Cambodia is bolstering its infrastructure initiatives to attract more Chinese investments, especially as it seeks to cement its position as an attractive investment destination in ASEAN. This comes amidst Beijing's growing interest in strengthening the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Southeast Asia. Several infrastructure projects are in the pipeline, and they are expected to significantly enhance connectivity and economic cooperation between Cambodia and China. Kang Sothear, Khmer Times, October 25
Mongolia and Taiwan expand cooperation in healthcare. Mongolia and Taiwan have strengthened their collaboration in the field of healthcare. Both countries signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to promote exchanges and cooperation in health and medical services. The partnership aims to facilitate joint projects across a broad range of healthcare management and services. AKIpress, October 25
IAEA conducts 1st safety review on Fukushima water since discharge. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has undertaken its first safety review of the treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant since its discharge into the ocean. The IAEA team inspected the facilities and evaluated the methods used to process the water. Their findings will be critical in shaping international perspectives on the safety and environmental implications of the water release. Kyodo News, October 25
Long Form
China-Australia Thaw Reveals Limits of Beijing's Economic Coercion. The recent warming of relations between China and Australia underscores the limitations of Beijing's economic pressure tactics. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's upcoming visit to China marks a shift in strained bilateral relations. Both nations are recalibrating their approaches, with China easing punitive trade measures and Australia adopting a more diplomatic tone. This thaw offers insights into the complexities of geopolitical maneuvering in the Asia-Pacific region. By Richard McGregor, Nikkei Asia, October 25
North Korea's Dangerous New Russia Ties. Confirmation by officials in Seoul and Washington reveals that North Korea is shipping large quantities of arms and ammunition via Russia to Ukraine. This marks a significant shift towards a new security partnership with Moscow. The arms include Soviet-era artillery pieces and shells, which Russia urgently needs for its operations in Ukraine. High-level meetings between North Korean and Russian officials have accelerated this development. The situation has alarmed South Korean officials, as the acquisition of high-tech Russian weaponry by North Korea could be a game-changer in the region. By Shim Jae Hoon, Asia Sentinel, October 24
Indonesian Democracy Under Threat in '24 Polls. Alarm bells are ringing over the nominations for Indonesia's upcoming presidential election. President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, has maneuvered Prabowo Subianto into the lead as the presidential candidate and his own son, Gibran Rakabuming, as the vice-presidential running mate. Critics argue that this move undermines the democratic process and could signal a return to the New Order era, notorious for corruption and nepotism. A recent court decision allowing candidates under 40 to run has further fueled concerns about the weakening of democracy. Asia Sentinel, October 24
How China-Israel Economic Ties Factor Into Beijing's Approach to the Gaza War. China's economic relationship with Israel presents a complex interplay between economic interests and political alignments. Despite differing political objectives, China and Israel have deepened their economic ties, with Israel being the largest recipient of Chinese investment among Middle Eastern countries from 2015 to 2018. These investments extend to advanced technology sectors and critical infrastructure. However, China's close economic ties with Israel don't deter it from supporting Palestine, albeit in a nuanced manner. This "pro-Palestinian neutrality" allows China to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape while leaving room for collaboration with the United States. By Bai Peng for The Diplomat, October 24
Asia’s Middle Powers Can Help Reduce the Risk of War. As strategic competition intensifies across Asia, crisis management mechanisms are under strain, calling for reinvigoration by Asia's middle powers. A recent study highlights at least 79 air and maritime incidents involving military ships and aircraft in Asia since 2010. China resists U.S. efforts to establish guardrails for Sino-U.S. competition, severing military communications after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Given the increasing risks, middle powers like Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Vietnam are urged to advocate for the reinvigoration of crisis management mechanisms. By Brendan Taylor for Foreign Policy, October 24
Opening Japan's Digital Drawbridge. Japan faces unique challenges in digital transformation, including a lack of digital literacy and a shortage of software engineers. To overcome these barriers, Japan is seeking deeper partnerships with ASEAN countries to attract digital talent. The government's Digital Agency is working on initiatives to promote digital transformation and attract data scientists from ASEAN countries. Enhanced collaboration between Japan and ASEAN could benefit both in terms of securing supply chains and increasing security, especially given the ongoing tensions between the United States and China. By Yasumasa Yamamoto for East Asia Forum, October 25
China and Nuclear Deterrence. Washington is embroiled in a debate over the appropriate response to China's expanding nuclear capabilities. While some experts call for a significant boost in the U.S. deployed nuclear force, others question the efficacy or warn that such an expansion could backfire. The complexities of U.S. nuclear force structure are highlighted, along with the challenges presented by China's nuclear modernization. The need for a nuanced approach that takes into account both current and future geopolitical realities is emphasized. Alex de Ramon, October 24