Asia Daily: October 24, 2025

China

China’s fourth plenum leaders bolster self-reliance against ‘raging storms.’ The Communist Party’s Central Committee concluded its fourth plenum by pledging greater self-reliance, technological advancement, and security to withstand global and domestic headwinds. The communique emphasized industrial modernization, domestic demand, and high-quality “internal circulation” as strategic foundations. Sylvia Ma, South China Morning Post, October 23

Veteran Chinese general Zhang Shengmin promoted in reshuffle after anti-corruption purge. China elevated Zhang Shengmin to the Central Military Commission’s second-ranked vice chair, replacing purged General He Weidong, as the Fourth Plenum also swapped out 11 Central Committee members amid a sweeping military graft crackdown. Zhang, the PLA’s discipline chief and a deputy party anti-graft secretary with prior Rocket Force and logistics posts, is seen as a trusted Xi Jinping loyalist; he lacks combat experience. Laurie Chen, Reuters, October 23

China confirms U.S. trade talks to be held in Malaysia from Friday. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Malaysia from October 24 to 27 to address renewed trade tensions. The discussions follow Beijing’s expansion of rare earth export curbs and Washington’s new tech restrictions, as both sides attempt to stabilize ties before a leaders’ summit. Joe Cash, Xiuhao Chen, and Liz Lee, Reuters, October 23

Trump to meet Xi in South Korea as part of Asia swing. The White House confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea next Thursday during his Asia trip, which includes stops in Malaysia and Japan. The meeting follows heightened trade tensions over China’s rare earth export curbs. Trump said he would raise fentanyl trafficking and expressed optimism about reaching a deal. Michael Martina, Gram Slattery, Steve Holland, and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, October 23

Japan

Japan, U.S. defense chiefs may meet next week, first time under new government. Japan and the United States are arranging talks between Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Tokyo, marking the first ministerial meeting since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office. Koizumi plans to outline Japan’s accelerated defense buildup and revisions to key security documents as both nations reinforce deterrence against China. Kyodo News, October 23

Japan’s new coalition eyes big spending, but not Abenomics 2.0. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s coalition with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) is preparing a major fiscal package exceeding ¥13.9 trillion but will avoid a full return to Abenomics-style stimulus. Ishin’s small-government stance and fiscal reform demands may temper expansionary policies. The Bank of Japan is expected to stay on its rate-hike path amid inflation and yen weakness. Leika Kihara, Reuters, October 23

7 LDP lawmakers in scandal over funds appointed to key posts. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government appointed seven Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers linked to a political funds scandal as senior vice ministers and parliamentary secretaries, sparking backlash. All are members of the former Abe faction. Officials said the appointments were based on merit and necessity, as coalition partner Nippon Ishin declined cabinet posts. The Asahi Shimbun, October 23

New ‘immigration minister’ post signals Takaichi Cabinet’s priorities. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi appointed Kimi Onoda as economic security minister and the first “minister in charge of harmonious coexistence with foreign nationals,” underscoring immigration as a key policy focus. Onoda pledged to tighten oversight of foreign residents while avoiding xenophobia, citing growing public unease and record-high foreign population levels. Yukana Inoue, The Japan Times, October 23

South Korea

S. Korea, U.S. still far apart on key issues in trade talks despite some progress. Senior officials Kim Yong-beom and Kim Jung-kwan said South Korea and the United States remain divided over major points in their trade negotiations, despite limited progress. Talks in Washington addressed Seoul’s $350 billion investment pledge but failed to bridge gaps before the APEC summit. Both sides pledged continued efforts to narrow differences. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, October 23

North Korea

Around 20 N. Korean soldiers briefly cross MDL, retreat after warning shots. About 20 North Korean soldiers crossed the Military Demarcation Line in Paju on October 19 before retreating when South Korean troops fired warning shots, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said. The incursion, likely accidental during land-clearing or mine-laying work, coincided with a separate defection incident but was deemed unrelated. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, October 23.

North Korea’s Kim says military ties with Russia will ‘advance non-stop’. Kim Jong Un said the “militant fraternity” with Russia will keep strengthening, speaking at a groundbreaking for a memorial to North Korean soldiers who fought in Russia’s Kursk region. He vowed cooperation despite “domination and tyranny,” as the allies deepen a mutual defense pact that includes arms supplies and troop deployments to Ukraine. Ju-min Park, Reuters, October 23

Vietnam

Vietnam Communist Party sets Jan 19–25 as dates for 5-yearly congress. Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party will hold its 14th National Congress from January 19 to 25 to chart key policies and elect a new Central Committee of about 180 members. The congress will review 40 years of Doi Moi reforms and target annual GDP growth of at least 10% for 2026–2030 as part of long-term socialist-oriented development goals. Khanh Vu, Reuters, October 23

Cambodia

Cambodia and Thailand reach concord in talks ahead of Kuala Lumpur peace agreement. Cambodia and Thailand agreed to sign a landmark peace accord to normalize relations and settle decades-old border disputes after nearly four months of ceasefire. The accord follows JBC and GBC meetings finalizing demining procedures and military withdrawals. Prime Minister Hun Manet reaffirmed transparency and denied any secret land concessions. Ben Sokhean, Khmer Times, October 23

Philippines

ICC judges reject jurisdiction challenge by Philippines ex-president Duterte. The International Criminal Court rejected former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte’s challenge to its authority, ruling that his case can proceed despite the Philippines’ 2019 withdrawal from the ICC. Judges said prosecutors’ preliminary examination before withdrawal constituted a valid basis for jurisdiction. A medical panel will next assess Duterte’s fitness for trial over drug war killings. Stephanie van den Berg, Reuters, October 23

DPWH teams up with PCC, AMLC for recovery of stolen wealth. The Department of Public Works and Highways signed agreements with the Philippine Competition Commission and the Anti-Money Laundering Council to recover funds lost to corruption in infrastructure projects. Secretary Vince Dizon said the pacts will expedite sanctions against colluding contractors and facilitate asset freezes, with ₱5.2 billion already secured from flood control anomalies. Dianne Sampang, Philippine Daily Inquirer, October 24

Taiwan

Taiwan will not receive all 66 F-16V jets by end of 2026: Air Force. Taiwan’s Air Force confirmed it will not receive all 66 F-16V fighter jets from the United States by 2026 due to production delays. The Defense Ministry said 34 aircraft have been delivered, with the remainder to arrive in stages. The 2019 contract aims to upgrade Taiwan’s air defense capabilities. Sean Lin, Focus Taiwan, October 23

U.S. Senate committee passes 4 Taiwan-related bills. The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations approved four bipartisan bills supporting Taiwan, including the PORCUPINE Act to streamline arms sales, the Deter PRC Aggression Against Taiwan Act to target China’s economy in case of an attack, the United States-Taiwan Partnership in the Americas Act, and the Taiwan International Solidarity Act. The measures now await full Senate consideration. Chung Yu-chen and James Thompson, Focus Taiwan, October 23

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan says it is tightening control of airspace after drone explodes over its territory. Kazakhstan’s defense ministry said it will strengthen airspace control after a drone of unknown origin exploded in the country’s west near the Russian border. The incident occurred close to Orenburg, recently hit by Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. Mariya Gordeyeva and Felix Light, Reuters, October 23

Trump Administration striving to strike critical minerals deal with Kazakhstan. The Trump administration is negotiating with Kazakhstan to secure U.S. access to major tungsten reserves, aiming to counter China’s dominance in the metal’s supply chain. Talks involve Cove Kaz Capital Group and Kazakhstan’s Samruk-Kazyna wealth fund for rights to the Upper Kairakty and North Katpar deposits. The U.S. may provide financing support but seeks no ownership stake. Eurasianet, October 23

East Asia

APEC needs an external rebalancing makeover. External imbalances in the Asia Pacific surged in 2024, with China’s record goods surplus paralleling a large U.S. current-account deficit, stoking financial risks under higher real rates. To stay central, APEC should move from pure liberalization toward coordinating savings–investment rebalancing: Washington credibly halves its fiscal deficit over five years, while Beijing boosts domestic demand after prolonged deflation through property resolution, local-government financing reform, and curbs on overcapacity. A coordinated exchange-rate adjustment among the dollar, yuan, yen, won, New Taiwan dollar, and dong would reinforce macro stabilization, echoing lessons from the Plaza Accord. With the United States absent from trade pacts, APEC’s inclusive, voluntary architecture binds both giants into steps that reduce instability. Sourabh Gupta, East Asia Forum, October 23

Why China is winning the trade war. Beijing has matched and outmaneuvered U.S. pressure with retaliatory tools that inflict political pain while limiting self-harm, achieving escalatory dominance. Tariff threats repeatedly receded, rare-earth limits forced reconsideration, and targeted measures against U.S. firms and soybean purchases increased leverage. China is also building a parallel trade architecture by trial-and-error, moving export geography and experimenting with global licensing of critical inputs, a tougher analogue to America’s semiconductor rulebook. The contest has strengthened Xi’s techno-industrial agenda despite domestic weaknesses, as leadership prepares to double down. Short-term de-escalation remains possible through tactical swaps, yet the broader change is toward weaponized commerce that lowers global welfare even if Beijing holds the advantage now across key supply chains. The Economist, October 23

A War China Didn’t Fight but Still Lost: Beijing’s Strategic Setback after Ukraine. China’s post–Cold War gains eroded as the Ukraine conflict tied Beijing closer to Moscow, ruptured cooperation with advanced economies, and slowed growth while widening the gap with the United States. Sanctions on Russia, disrupted grain and energy markets, and accelerating tech controls raised costs and risk across trade, finance, and industry. Europe rearmed, NATO expanded, and U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific tightened, producing a harsher regional security environment. Deepening Sino-Russian economic and military links reinforced Western perceptions of alignment, complicating reconciliation and constraining development. Rejuvenation pauses until the war ends and a more cooperative order returns, restoring broader global stability for China in coming years. Xin Sichao, U.S.-China Perception Monitor, October 23

Southeast Asia

The rise of state-owned investment funds in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian governments are expanding state investment vehicles to pursue development and strategic control alongside commercial returns. Singapore’s Temasek and GIC, and Malaysia’s Khazanah, manage large portfolios and anchor stakes in airlines, telecoms, banks, utilities, and infrastructure. Newer funds adopt novel structures: Indonesia’s INA uses budget cash plus bank shares and co-invests in transport, logistics, pharma, and clean energy; Danantara centralizes state-owned enterprises; the Philippines’ Maharlika launched with bank capital and bought a 20% NGCP stake. Policymakers deploy these entities to shield assets and steer capital to sectors, as seen in Malaysia’s MAHB takeover and Temasek’s restructuring. The change tracks a turn to state intervention, despite governance risks. James Guild, East Asia Forum, October 23

Myanmar’s Pig-Butchering Scams Have Under-the-Table Backing From China. Evidence from Myanmar’s border “scam cities” shows large-scale online fraud and trafficking run by Chinese crime syndicates allied with pro-junta forces, with links to Chinese intelligence alleged. U.S. Treasury data cite more than $10 billion in American losses in 2024, while Thai police and ASPI estimate over 100,000 people enslaved in Myanmar and far more region-wide. Compounds like Shwe Kokko use satellite internet to evade censorship. Beijing condemns abuses yet enables the junta diplomatically and economically, sustaining criminal finance and cyberscams. Washington sanctioned organizers and urged coordinated action by partners. The crisis threatens global financial security as well as human rights. Benedict Rogers, Foreign Policy, October 23

South Asia

Trump Created Chance for Pakistan’s Diplomatic Tsunami. Islamabad leveraged a rare U.S. tilt and a Saudi-Pakistani strategic mutual-defense pact to orchestrate a rapid reset of regional ties, including expanded engagement with Turkey, Malaysia, Iran, and China, even as it exited an IMF crisis scare. The transformation followed counterterrorism cooperation and a Trump–Modi rift that produced punitive tariffs on India and opened space for Pakistani outreach. Riyadh’s hedging on U.S. reliability and talk of wider Gulf participation boosted Pakistan’s role, but commitments risk entanglement in Yemen or Gaza stabilization. A generous U.S. trade package rests on uncertain oil and minerals prospects, while India edges toward Beijing. Multialignment raises Pakistan’s profile yet may prove fragile amid great-power competition for now. Robert A. Manning, Foreign Policy, October 23

By Hosting Taliban Foreign Minister, India Carefully Engages With Kabul. New Delhi hosted Amir Khan Muttaqi on Oct. 10 while withholding recognition and state symbols, signaling calibrated engagement tied to security interests. Outcomes included reopening the embassy in Kabul, accrediting Taliban diplomats, resuming development projects, upgrading health services and scholarships, and gifting 20 ambulances. Kabul invited Indian investment in mining and hydropower, discussed Chabahar logistics, and agreed on an air corridor with more flights. Regional dynamics shaped the visit as Russia recognized the regime and Pakistan struck Kabul amid TTP tensions, prompting border clashes. India insists Afghan soil not be used against it, yet Taliban capacity remains uncertain. Engagement proceeds with prudence. Harsh V. Pant and Shivam Shekhawat, Foreign Policy, October 23

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