China
Trump says he expects to reach deal with China on trade, soybeans, possibly nuclear arms. U.S. President Donald Trump said he anticipates agreements with Chinese President Xi Jinping during next week’s South Korea summit, including renewed soybean purchases and potential nuclear arms limits. Amid rising trade tensions and rare earth export curbs, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer are holding preparatory talks in Malaysia to ease friction. Jeff Mason, Andrea Shalal, and David Lawder, Reuters, October 22
Do not fall into West’s ‘discourse trap’ when defending China: ex-government adviser. Former policy adviser Ding Yifan urged Chinese academics to avoid Western “discourse traps” on subsidies, democracy, and global order, and to assert the Communist Party’s role in the country’s development with confidence. Speaking at Fudan University, he said combative rebuttals seldom persuade Western audiences and could alienate Global South partners, advocating arguments that challenge perceived double standards without provoking backlash. Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, October 23
China deploys new floating barrier at Scarborough Shoal, satellite image shows. Satellite imagery revealed China has placed a new floating barrier at the entrance of Scarborough Shoal’s lagoon, escalating tensions with the Philippines over the disputed South China Sea atoll. Analysts said the installation, visible in an October 8 image, appears aimed at restricting access, marking another instance of China’s assertive control measures. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, October 22
Japan
Japan’s new leader to woo Trump with promises on pickups and soybeans. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing a U.S.-focused trade package, including purchases of Ford F-150 trucks, soybeans, and liquefied natural gas, ahead of talks with President Donald Trump in Tokyo. While reaffirming the U.S. alliance as central to Japan’s policy, Takaichi will avoid new defense spending targets but pledge stronger security cooperation. Tamiyuki Kihara, Reuters, October 22
Polls show Takaichi Cabinet off to strong start with support for policy stance. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s new Cabinet received strong public backing, with a Yomiuri Shimbun poll showing 80% support among respondents aged 18 to 39 and 75% among those aged 40 to 59. The figures represent a sharp rise from former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ratings last month, reflecting approval of Takaichi’s policy direction. Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, October 23
New Japan PM to move up defense spending goal by 2 years in policy speech. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will announce plans to advance Japan’s defense spending target — 2% of GDP — from fiscal 2027 to 2025, using a supplementary budget to accelerate the buildup. Her policy speech will also outline revisions to key security documents, closer U.S. defense coordination, and measures to raise incomes amid inflation. Kyodo News, October 22
South Korea
S. Korea to soon begin talks with U.S. on revising nuclear energy pact: FM Cho. Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said Seoul will open negotiations with Washington to revise the 123 Agreement, seeking greater leeway to reprocess spent fuel and enrich uranium for civilian power. Citing 26 operating reactors and reliance on imported fuel, he argued for domestic capability. The 2015 update enabled pyroprocessing research, but U.S. proliferation concerns persist. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, October 23
Senior Seoul official reports ‘partial progress’ in trade negotiations with U.S. Presidential aide Kim Yong-beom said talks in Washington achieved limited progress toward implementing South Korea’s $350 billion U.S. investment pledge under July’s trade framework deal. Remaining issues include funding and tariff terms, with both sides aiming to finalize before the APEC summit in Korea. Kim stressed the agreement must align with national interests. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, October 22
North Korea
North Korea tested ‘cutting-edge’ weapons system on Wednesday, KCNA reports. North Korea said it successfully tested a new hypersonic weapons system near Pyongyang as part of efforts to strengthen strategic deterrence. Two projectiles struck targets in the country’s northeast. South Korea identified the launches as short-range ballistic missiles, while U.S. Forces Korea condemned the action as destabilizing ahead of the APEC summit. Heejin Kim, Reuters, October 22
North Korea-China trade surges with imports of food, machinery and exports of sanctioned minerals. North Korea’s trade with China has sharply increased following Kim Jong Un’s Beijing visit, with imports of food, industrial equipment, and textiles alongside illicit mineral exports. State-linked firms are smuggling coal, iron ore, and other resources through transshipments to earn foreign currency. Rising imports of military-use fabrics and luxury foods highlight widening class divisions. Seulkee Jang, Daily NK, October 22
Thailand
Thai deputy finance minister resigns amid scam allegations. Deputy Finance Minister Vorapak Tanyawong announced his resignation after being accused of involvement in a regional online scam network linked to human trafficking and money laundering. Denying all charges, he said he stepped down to prevent distractions to the government. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ordered a written clarification before accepting the resignation. Kitiphong Thaichareon and Panarat Thepgumpanat, Reuters, October 22
New Pheu Thai leader ‘won’t be a Shinawatra.’ Pheu Thai election director Suriya Jungrungreangkit said the party’s next leader will not come from the Shinawatra family, following Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s resignation. He emphasized the need for younger leadership and denied reports his faction pressured her to step down. Chusak Sirinil was appointed acting leader until the October 31 election. Bangkok Post, October 22
Laos
Laos’ foreign minister concludes visit to Brunei, pledges stronger partnership. Foreign Minister Thongsavanh Phomvihane wrapped up an official visit to Brunei, where he met Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah to reaffirm bilateral cooperation in human resource development, agriculture, energy, and trade. Both sides agreed to deepen collaboration under existing agreements, strengthen private-sector ties, and enhance coordination in regional and multilateral forums. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, October 22
Cambodia
Cambodia, Thailand convene 2nd Special GBC Meeting in Malaysia to advance ceasefire implementation. Defense ministers Gen Tea Seiha and Gen Nattaphon Nakphanit co-chaired the second Cambodia-Thailand General Border Committee meeting in Kuala Lumpur, joined by observers from Malaysia, the U.S., and the Interim Observer Team. Officials reviewed progress since August’s extraordinary session, reaffirming commitments to enforce the ceasefire and strengthen mutual trust. Khmer Times, October 23
Taiwan
Taiwan wary China’s new economic plan could include sensitive frontline islands, sources say. Taiwanese officials are closely monitoring whether China’s upcoming five-year development plan could extend to Kinmen, a Taiwan-controlled island near China’s coast. Concerns center on potential attempts by Beijing to assert de facto control through economic integration and infrastructure projects, such as a bridge from Xiamen. Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, October 23
Taiwan plans deeper military ties with US to bolster security. Taiwan’s defense ministry announced plans to expand cooperation with the United States through reciprocal visits, joint training, and observation of military exercises to strengthen regional stability. The initiative follows increased Chinese military activity near the island, with Taiwan emphasizing the partnership’s role in intelligence sharing and early warning capabilities. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, October 22
India
India PM Modi to attend ASEAN summit virtually, ruling out Trump meeting. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will join the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur online, citing Deepavali celebrations, thereby ruling out an anticipated meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. The decision comes amid stalled trade negotiations following U.S. tariff hikes on Indian goods linked to Russian oil imports. Talks continue on potential tariff cuts in agriculture and energy. YP Rajesh, Sarita Chaganti Singh, and Sakshi Dayal, Reuters, October 23
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan, EU deepen strategic cooperation on connectivity, green energy, and digital transformation. Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Issetov met EU officials in Luxembourg to advance collaboration on transport, energy, and digital initiatives under the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. The talks highlighted the Trans-Caspian Transport Route, critical raw materials, and green energy investment, including EIB-backed infrastructure projects and digital inclusion programs. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, October 22
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia sign agreements worth $4 billion, bringing total project portfolio to $30 billion. Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia concluded 10 new agreements spanning renewable energy, logistics, IT, and infrastructure, raising their joint project portfolio to $30 billion. Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov confirmed major projects with ACWA Power, including wind and solar plants and an energy storage system. Additional deals cover power generation, healthcare reform, and cable production. Gazeta, October 22
East Asia
How does Beijing draft the 5-year plan? The 15th plan for 2026–31 proceeds in stages: proposal at Fourth Plenum on October 20, 2025, an outline at March 2026 Two Sessions, then sector plans over 18 months. The NDRC issued 74 research questions and selected teams for 65, prioritizing scitech and macro at 19% each, trade 15%, social 14%. About three-quarters of assignments went to Beijing units; Zhejiang ranked second, with Zhejiang University prominent and the provincial institute active. Universities received 41% of assignments; NDRC bodies took 30%, led by the Academy of Macroeconomic Research and the State Information Centre. Themes include dual circulation, consumption, AI deployment, a green “dual control” regime, regional coordination, and 2035 modernization benchmarks. CHINA POLICY, October 22
The China Tech Canon. Chinese tech leaders internalize Silicon Valley playbooks while drawing on Maoist tactics, classical texts, and homegrown policy idioms. Lei Jun’s formative reading and rapid-iteration creed, plus Wang Xing’s Thiel-inflected pursuit of durable market power, show Western imprints. Tencent’s Zhang Xiaolong elevated Kevin Kelly to required reading for product managers. Inside firms, Selected Works of Mao operates as a tactical manual, recasting “encircle the cities from the countryside” into lower-tier market capture, while Jin Yong and Liu Cixin supply shared metaphors that shape organizational identity. The result is corporate bilingualism: Western management systems paired with patriotic mobilization and local mythmaking amid asymmetric idea flows to the West. Afra Wang, Asterisk Magazine, October 22
The China Model’s Fatal Flaw. Recent overcapacity arises from an extraordinary supply surge in EVs, batteries, and solar rather than weak demand or subsidy dependence. Solar additions reached 277 GW in 2024 as EV demand stayed strong. Private firms lead expansion while officials hesitate to force consolidation, given jobs and growth concerns, worsening price wars and margins. Structural fixes proposed include new cadre metrics and tax changes, deeper capital-market instruments such as convertible bonds and venture debt, and stronger IP and competition enforcement. Without institutional reform, innovation lags as firms chase volume over differentiation. Lizzi C. Lee, Foreign Affairs, October 21
The Arctic, outer space and influence-building: China and Russia join forces to expand in new strategic frontiers. China extends competition into polar regions and space, presenting multilateral rhetoric while internal doctrine prioritizes dominance, security, and military-civil fusion. Capabilities advance quickly through satellites, BeiDou, polar research stations, icebreakers, and subsea systems, creating dual-use benefits for targeting, sensing, and communications. Collaboration with Russia enables access to the Northern Sea Route, infrastructure financing, interoperability between BeiDou and GLONASS, a planned lunar research base with nuclear power, and coordinated patrols, amplifying risks. European interests face pressure across economy, technology, governance, and defense. Recommended actions: fund Arctic infrastructure and space assets, tighten screening of ESA ties and Chinese investments, shape rules with partners, and strengthen monitoring via EU and NATO mechanisms. Helena Legarda, MERICS, October 22
The Global EV Shift: The Role of China and Industrial Policy in Emerging Economies. Emerging and developing markets are set to drive future auto growth even as current passenger sales remain modest. Chinese exports and investment propel EV uptake across multiple countries, reshaping commercial dynamics and geopolitics. Governments support adoption to cut oil import bills, stabilize foreign reserves, and incubate local ecosystems such as charging networks and digital platforms. Case studies from Costa Rica, Brazil, Indonesia, India, Mexico, and South Africa illustrate divergent strategies and policy results. Ilaria Mazzocco and Ryan Featherston, CSIS, October 22
Inside China’s housing crisis: The shadow industry ‘saving’ homes from default. Prolonged price declines have pushed many borrowers into negative equity. A burgeoning “house-retention” service markets a sequence: default, have a trusted relative win the judicial auction near half price, then repurchase the bad loan from an asset manager at roughly 30% of face value, effectively reclaiming the mortgage at a discount. Firms charge about 5% of the original loan or 8–20% of the outstanding balance. Listings surged in 2024, indicating broad stress. Legal exposure, fee burdens, and systemic risks to banks and social credit systems persist and durable stability still hinges on jobs and macro recovery. Li Kang, ThinkChina, October 22
Taiwan Is Not for Sale. Forthcoming Trump–Xi talks will feature Taiwan alongside tariff and market-access bargaining. Beijing is likely to request U.S. opposition to independence, limits on international participation, and reduced arms sales. Accepting such changes from long-standing neutrality would weaken deterrence and encourage further coercion. Recommended steps prioritize restoring pre-2022 norms by halting centerline crossings, pulling vessels from the contiguous zone, and scaling exercises, paired with reciprocal U.S. adjustments. A de facto buffer zone would cut incident risk and sharpen signaling. Mutual restraint on UNGA 2758 interpretations would also reduce legal friction. Marvin Park and David Sacks, Foreign Affairs, October 22
Price-Tagging the Alliance: Seoul’s APEC Stress Test. South Korea hosts APEC on October 31–November 1 in Gyeongju while managing US–China friction and a 25% US tariff imposed under the “Liberation Day” order. Washington linked relief to a US$350 billion up-front investment and showed little flexibility after an ICE raid at Hyundai’s Georgia Metaplant. Seoul proposed phased payments and safeguards. Beijing’s October 9 rare earth curbs, US threats of 100% tariffs, and reciprocal port fees raised risks as uncertainty over a possible Trump–Xi meeting unsettled optics. Bloc choreography around North Korea’s 80th Workers’ Party anniversary projected confidence among Beijing and Moscow. A data-center fire added strain. Seoul must set clearer economic red lines and convert reactive balancing into strategy. George Hutchinson, 38 North, October 22
Southeast Asia
U.S.-China Tensions Cast Long Shadow Over ASEAN Summit. ASEAN leaders meet in Malaysia on October 26–28 amid internal strains and great-power rivalry. Officials expect collaboration pledges yet no joint communiqué, per Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan. Agenda items include Timor Leste’s admission, a digital economy framework, RCEP engagements, and the East Asia Summit attended by President Donald Trump. Conflict management remains weak as Myanmar’s collapse and a Thai-Cambodian border fight expose institutional limits, with Anwar Ibrahim’s personal ties helping broker a ceasefire. U.S.-China trade friction fuels protectionism and fragmented tariff deals while dependence on China persists. Despite U.S. pressure on transshipment, ASEAN is poised to advance China–ASEAN FTA Version 3.0. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, October 22
Malaysia holds the power to stabilise China–ASEAN relations. China’s 3 September 2025 military parade signaled confidence and sharpened regional concern. ASEAN responses vary, from Indonesia’s cautious patrols and Vietnam’s openness to U.S. presence to Cambodia and Laos’ alignment with Beijing, eroding cohesion. Malaysia’s balancing posture and location on the Strait of Malacca position Kuala Lumpur to convene effective dialogue. As October’s East Asia Summit host and SOM-DOC convener, Malaysia can drive Track II exchanges, maritime hotlines, incident protocols, and minilateral groupings. Advancing a framework for a South China Sea code of conduct would be the pivotal deliverable. History warns spectacles breed overconfidence, making diplomacy essential now. Phar Kim Beng and Luthfy Hamzah, East Asia Forum, October 22
Floating Prices, Fearing Backlash: Economics and Politics of Malaysia’s Petrol Subsidy Reform. Malaysia tightens fiscal rationalization by preserving RON95 price controls for most residents while removing support for ultra-rich households and foreign users. Earlier ideas of universal removal paired with transfers have receded. The June 2024 diesel overhaul combined market pricing, fleet-card quotas, and Budi Madani cash aid, slashing smuggling and yielding sizeable savings after a 56% pump jump, yet it stirred political costs. RON95 changes pivot to excluding ineligible users rather than broad cash assistance, with PADU’s gaps pushing MyKad-based eligibility checks and potential biometrics. Cheap fuel, dense private vehicle ownership, and weak transit usage heighten backlash risks, so officials favour gradual, targeted adjustments over abrupt liberalization. Lee Hwok-Aun, FULCRUM, October 22
South Asia
Pakistan must see reality and build diplomatic ties with Kabul. Pakistan’s bet on a friendly Taliban has collapsed amid TTP violence, short-lived ceasefires on October 16 and 19, and cross-border strikes. Kabul’s autonomy grows as China deepens aid, trade access, and energy projects, Russia grants recognition, and India reengages. Islamabad’s coercive posture and refugee expulsions have reduced leverage and a pragmatic reset would exchange diplomatic recognition for verifiable commitments against TTP use of Afghan territory, while institutionalizing dialogue on border trade and repatriation to avoid punitive closures. Moving from control to coordination offers the best chance to stabilize relations and contain spillovers. Salman Rafi Sheikh, Nikkei Asia, October 22
Oceania
What the US–Australia rare earth deal means for China. Washington and Canberra launch an investment to accelerate mining, refining, and price backstops, positioning Australia as a supplier to the United States while challenging Beijing’s dominance. China unveiled export controls on October 9 with extraterritorial reach, licensing rules covering products with as little as 0.1 percent rare earth content, and bans on military end users, disrupting automakers and defense chains as September exports fell 31 percent. The move may yield one-time leverage, spurring partners to derisk supply. Initial US$1 billion arrives within six months, with capital expected. Yet technical hurdles, weak non-defense demand, and China’s potential price suppression persist; Lynas remains the significant non-China refiner and governments may shoulder losses. Naoise McDonagh, ThinkChina, October 22