Asia Daily: October 22, 2025

China

China agrees to crisis talks in Brussels as rare earth and Nexperia sagas boil over. China’s commerce minister will hold urgent talks in Brussels after the EU sought immediate solutions to Beijing’s tightening of rare earth export controls and escalating tensions over Dutch chipmaker Nexperia. The EU warned the restrictions jeopardize critical industries, while Beijing defended its policies as legal and necessary. Finbarr Bermingham and Xiaofei Xu, South China Morning Post, October 21

China eyes 3-way currency swap with Japan and South Korea amid Trump’s tariff war. China is discussing a potential trilateral currency swap with Japan and South Korea to reinforce regional financial stability and expand yuan usage amid intensifying US trade tensions. Talks occurred during the IMF-World Bank meetings, with existing bilateral deals nearing expiration and future cooperation possibly aligning with multilateral frameworks. Frank Tang, South China Morning Post, October 21

China holds event to commemorate Taiwan’s ‘retrocession’, Xinhua reports. Chinese state-backed organizations marked the 80th anniversary of Taiwan’s 1945 handover from Japan to the Republic of China with a commemorative event in Beijing. The ceremony emphasized historical sovereignty claims, though Taiwan barred its officials from attending. October 25 remains politically sensitive amid ongoing cross-strait tensions. Reuters, October 21

Japan

LDP swallows Nippon Ishin’s demands to push hardline policies. Japan’s new coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and Nippon Ishin has embraced a more conservative agenda following Komeito’s exit, agreeing to expand defense spending, revise security laws, and explore next-generation submarine technology. The pact also advances plans for constitutional revision and stricter intelligence legislation, aligning closely with Nippon Ishin’s priorities. The Asahi Shimbun, October 21

Japan’s new PM Takaichi vows economic stimulus to fight inflation. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced plans for an economic stimulus package to offset rising living costs, pledging tax relief and higher income thresholds while ruling out an early election. Her government will focus on easing the impact of U.S. tariffs and revising national security policies, seeking cross-party cooperation for stability. Kyodo News, October 22

Japan exports to U.S. down 10.2% in April-September amid higher tariffs. Japan’s exports to the United States fell 10.2 percent year-on-year to 9.71 trillion yen in the first half of fiscal 2025, with car shipments plunging 22.7 percent as U.S. tariffs took effect. The nations agreed in July to lower vehicle levies to 15 percent, easing trade tensions. Kyodo News, October 22

South Korea

S. Korea narrows most gaps with U.S. in tariff talks, seeks deal in line with national interests. South Korea has resolved most differences with the United States in ongoing tariff negotiations, with officials aiming to finalize an agreement before the APEC summit. Presidential aide Kim Yong-beom said only a few issues remain, stressing Seoul will not accept a partial deal that compromises national interests. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, October 22

South Korea trade envoy seeks removal of China curbs on Hanwha Ocean’s U.S. units. South Korea’s trade minister Yeo Han-koo urged China to lift sanctions on Hanwha Ocean’s U.S. subsidiaries during a call with counterpart Li Chenggang. The discussion also covered Beijing’s rare earth export controls, which have affected major chipmakers including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Jack Kim, Reuters, October 22

North Korea

North Korea fires ballistic missiles week before leaders meet in South Korea. North Korea launched multiple short-range ballistic missiles from near Pyongyang into the sea, marking its first such test since May and escalating tensions ahead of the APEC summit in South Korea. The projectiles caused no damage, but prompted immediate coordination among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. Jack Kim and Heejin Kim, Reuters, October 21

North Korea elevates intelligence capabilities with new unified spy agency. North Korea has reorganized its Reconnaissance General Bureau into the Reconnaissance Information General Bureau, merging satellite, cyber, signals, and human intelligence into a centralized command. The new structure enhances analytical precision and reports directly to Kim Jong Un, reflecting Pyongyang’s push to integrate information, economic, and psychological warfare. Lee Sang-yong, Daily NK, October 21

Thailand

Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns leadership to ‘save’ Pheu Thai. Former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra stepped down as leader of the Pheu Thai Party to allow a full internal overhaul, saying the move was necessary for renewal and unity. Her resignation follows her dismissal by the Constitutional Court in August and declining party popularity after a controversy involving Cambodian leader Hun Sen. Bangkok Post, October 22

Myanmar

Junta minister flies to Russia and China as Myanmar fuel crisis deepens. Energy Minister Ko Ko Lwin sought assistance in Moscow and China to address soaring fuel prices, power outages, and dwindling reserves, discussing AI-driven gas recovery with RosGeo, refinery and supply options with Gazprom, and pipeline upgrades. A pilot project at the Aphyauk field and training plans were outlined, though financing and security risks cloud major ventures like Dawei. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, October 21

Myanmar regime bans election campaign rallies. Myanmar’s junta-appointed election commission has prohibited rallies and street processions for December’s polls, citing security concerns. Political parties must instead hold speeches at preapproved venues and avoid criticism of the military, with violations subject to prosecution. The restrictions favor the junta-backed USDP, which is fielding over 1,000 candidates nationwide. The Irrawaddy, October 21

Cambodia

Cambodia postpones bilateral talks with Thailand indefinitely without giving reason. Cambodia abruptly postponed a scheduled meeting with Thailand’s parliamentary delegation at the Inter-Parliamentary Union Assembly in Geneva, offering no explanation despite having requested the talks. The last-minute withdrawal surprised delegates and may strain regional parliamentary relations after prior tensions over media reports. The Nation, October 21

Cambodia rejects militarisation claims, blames Thai bombardment for threats to Preah Vihear. Cambodia’s Senate Vice President Ouch Borith dismissed accusations of militarising the Preah Vihear Temple, asserting the site is protected through “heritage, law, and restraint.” Speaking at the IPU Assembly in Geneva, he accused Thailand of damaging the UNESCO site through airstrikes and reaffirmed Cambodia’s adherence to international treaties defining the border. Khmer Times, October 22

Philippines

President Marcos Jr. vows to fight corruption to restore people’s trust. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pledged to intensify anti-corruption efforts, urging continued reforms to ensure integrity in government service. Speaking at the Metrobank Foundation Outstanding Filipinos awards, he described the campaign as “hard and painful but necessary” to rebuild public confidence and inspire future generations with honest governance. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, October 21

Senate eyes passage of 2026 national budget that’s lower than NEP – Sotto. Senate President Vicente Sotto III said the chamber is considering approving a 2026 budget smaller than the government’s proposed ₱6.7-trillion National Expenditure Program, marking a first in Philippine history. He said the move aims to reduce borrowing, with possible cuts to the public works budget following reviews of alleged overpricing. Charie Abarca, Philippine Daily Inquirer, October 22

Singapore

Singapore navy launches first of six ‘motherships’ for unmanned combat. The Republic of Singapore Navy launched its first multi-role combat vessel, Victory, designed to act as a “mothership” for unmanned aerial, surface, and underwater systems. Built by ST Engineering, the 8,000-tonne vessel features modular systems, advanced automation, and electric propulsion to enhance flexibility and reduce crew size. Natasha Ganesan, Channel News Asia, October 21

Kazakhstan

Tokayev, Aliyev sign cooperation agreements to boost ties in transport and digitalization. Presidents Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Ilham Aliyev strengthened Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan relations at the Supreme Interstate Council meeting in Astana, signing 15 agreements across transport, energy, digitalization, and culture. The leaders reaffirmed trust-based cooperation marking 20 years of strategic partnership, pledging to expand collaboration in innovation and logistics to enhance regional connectivity. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, October 21

Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan and Afghanistan tout modest TAPI pipeline progress. Turkmen leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov and Taliban officials marked the start of construction on the Serhetabat-Herat section of the TAPI gas pipeline, describing it as vital for regional development. Fourteen kilometers of the line have been completed in Afghanistan, with full completion expected to generate major transit revenue. Berdymukhamedov also credited U.S. support for advancing cooperation. Eurasianet, October 21

East Asia

Shenzhen: The city that built China’s tech empire. Shenzhen transformed from a fishing town under 100,000 residents into a 20-million megacity with GDP rising from 270 million RMB to 3.6 trillion RMB. A dense innovation engine now counts roughly 25,000 high- and new-tech firms, 12 per square kilometre, and led China in 2024 with 16,300 international patent filings; Huawei contributed 6,600. Reformist local governance disrupted hukou barriers, leaving two-thirds of residents without local registration, and drew continuous in-migration and entrepreneurs. Universities and incubators such as XbotPark feed “spinout” lineages, while shanzhai practices and agile supply chains compress prototyping cycles. The city anchors China’s low-altitude drone economy with extensive routes, stations, and firms. Chen Xiangming, ThinkChina, October 21

Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae Takes Charge. The Diet elected Takaichi Sanae as Japan’s first female prime minister and leader of a minority Liberal Democratic Party government. The LDP lost its coalition with Komeitō over donation limits, then secured Ishin no Kai’s support under a still-unsettled pact. Priorities include cost-of-living relief, budget passage with opposition cooperation, and stricter fundraising rules amid money-in-politics scandals. Cabinet posts incorporate former rivals while Kobayashi Takayuki heads policy research. Abroad, Takaichi plans early meetings with U.S., Chinese, and South Korean leaders, expects to host President Donald J. Trump, backs defense outlays at 2 percent of GDP, and seeks deeper trilateral security with South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines. Sheila A. Smith, Council on Foreign Relations, October 21

Sanae Takaichi and the future of Japan’s security policy. Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, is expected to sustain alliance-centric strategy while fine-tuning implementation. A longtime Abe protégé, she pledges stronger deterrence, including counter-drone and electromagnetic defenses, improved Self-Defense Force conditions, and spending already slated to reach 2% of GDP by 2027, with room to exceed 3.5% if required. Early engagement with President Trump is set to shape bilateral security coordination. She signals continuity on a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” keeps destroyer transfers to partners like the Philippines on track, and avoids provocative symbolism such as Yasukuni visits while maintaining dialogue with Beijing. With the LDP now a minority, coalition arithmetic constrains abrupt change; major Taiwan policy changes are unlikely. Shin Kawashima, ThinkChina, October 21

Southeast Asia

ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur Draws Trump, World Leaders. Kuala Lumpur hosts ASEAN from Oct. 26 to 28, with an unusually heavy roster that includes Donald Trump, Li Qiang, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Cyril Ramaphosa, and Giorgia Meloni. The core agenda centers on the U.S.–China trade confrontation, while a planned Scott Bessent–He Lifeng discussion on rare earths and tariffs could shape subsequent Trump–Xi engagement at APEC in South Korea. Trump conditions his attendance on presiding over a Cambodia–Thailand cease-fire signing without China present. Beyond spectacle, ASEAN will upgrade its China trade pact, adopt a digital economic framework, and push the long-delayed ASEAN Power Grid. Timor-Leste’s long-sought accession advances, testing future positions on Myanmar too. Joseph Rachman, Foreign Policy, October 21

PNG’s fight against corruption must draw on its culture. Papua New Guinea marks fifty years of independence while corruption persists as an existential risk. Prime Minister James Marape’s government legislated an anti-graft body in 2020, establishing the Independent Commission Against Corruption in 2023, yet the commission collapsed after internal accusations and the June 2025 suspension of its inaugural expatriate leadership. The body received 51.4 million kina in 2025, but turmoil threatens IMF-linked reforms and risks Financial Action Task Force grey-listing. Marape proposed applying artificial intelligence to appointments, procurement, policy, and enforcement. Durable progress requires aligning with “wantok” partners, formalizing reciprocity with domestic and counterpart ICACs, and sequencing prosecutions to build precedents before confronting senior figures. Yuambari Haihuie, East Asia Forum, October 21

South Asia

China recalibrates in Nepal after Oli’s fall. Generation Z–led protests over censorship, corruption, and stagnation forced Nepal’s Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli to resign in September 2025, unsettling Beijing’s expectations but not overturning its objectives. Oli’s tenure deepened ties through BRI commitments, flagship connectivity plans, and Xi Jinping’s 2019 visit that declared a “strategic partnership.” China’s official response stressed stability, while Chinese commentary framed the turmoil as rooted in structural weaknesses and generational discontent, with some imputing outside influence. Beijing moved to engage the interim administration of Sushila Karki, invoking non-interference, Five Principles, and practical cooperation, as its ambassador met Kathmandu leaders. The setback narrows momentum but leaves long-run engagement intact across political and economic tracks. Bian Sai and Amit Ranjan, East Asia Forum, October 21

Oceania

Can a U.S.-Australia Deal on Rare Earths Counter China’s Dominance? Washington and Canberra unveiled a critical-minerals framework that channels $2 billion in six months into joint ventures, with each government committing $1 billion to seed projects in both countries. Australia’s resources and mining capacity underpin the plan, yet processing complexity and long lead times for mines and refineries constrain quick results. Announced investments include a Northern Territory rare earths mine projected to supply up to 5 percent of global demand and a Western Australia gallium project expected to reach 10 percent of world output. The partners also pledged intervention if market flooding undercuts viability. The pact is not legally binding, and Australia’s economy remains tied to China. Victoria Kim, The New York Times, October 21

---