China
China’s Communist Party kicks off fourth plenum amid tightened security in Beijing. The fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee began in Beijing with over 350 top officials attending to chart the next five-year plan. Xi Jinping delivered the opening report. The agenda includes economic strategy, leadership reshuffles, and handling high-profile corruption cases. Security was heightened across key sites and airspace restrictions were enforced. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, October 20
Trump downplays Taiwan risk in China talks, expects fair trade deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said he anticipates a strong trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping and dismissed concerns over a Taiwan conflict, although he acknowledged it may be discussed at the upcoming APEC summit. While Trump struck an optimistic tone, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer warned of action against China’s alleged economic coercion targeting U.S. industries. Andrea Shalal and Jarrett Renshaw, Reuters, October 20
Japan
LDP head Takaichi elected 1st female Japan prime minister with JIP support. Sanae Takaichi was elected Japan’s first female prime minister in a parliamentary vote, winning 237 ballots with backing from the Liberal Democratic Party and new coalition partner Japan Innovation Party. She is expected to name Satsuki Katayama as finance minister and Shinjiro Koizumi as defense minister. The JIP will advise rather than take Cabinet posts. Kyodo News, Kyodo News, October 21
Ishin under fire for shelving donation ban to join coalition. The Japan Innovation Party is facing criticism for backing away from its pledge to ban corporate and group political donations in order to join a coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party. The agreement only requires a consultative body to reach a conclusion during Sanae Takaichi’s party presidency, a deadline critics say renders the promise meaningless. The Asahi Shimbun, The Asahi Shimbun, October 21
Japan needs quasi-permanent seat on UN Security Council, says ex-official. Former UN undersecretary-general Kiyotaka Akasaka called for the creation of quasi-permanent Security Council seats with consecutive reelections and urged Japan to seek one, citing the difficulty of gaining a permanent seat due to Chinese and Russian veto power. He warned of declining U.S. support and increasing Chinese influence, and encouraged more Japanese to pursue UN careers. The Japan Times, October 21
Trump confirms plan to visit Japan after trip to Malaysia. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed he will visit Japan for three days starting October 27 after attending the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. He is expected to meet Japan’s new prime minister and later travel to South Korea for the APEC summit, where he plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. A trip to China is planned for early 2026. The Japan Times, October 21
South Korea
South Korea ramps up security ahead of high-stakes APEC summit next week. South Korea will deploy 18,500 personnel and increase terror alert levels in Gyeongju ahead of the October 31–November 1 APEC summit, where U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet. Security drills, underwater sweeps, and anti-drone measures have begun, with coastal patrols extending to Pohang. Dogyun Kim and Jihoon Lee, Reuters, October 20
Lee pledges bold defense, aerospace R&D investment by 2030. President Lee Jae Myung announced plans to significantly boost defense and aerospace research and development through 2030, aiming to secure core technologies and strengthen South Korea’s global defense standing. Speaking at ADEX 2025, he emphasized fast-track reforms, support for startups, and increased international cooperation, with envoy Kang Hoon-sik dispatched to Europe to expand arms exports. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, October 20
North Korea
Kim Jong Un orders propaganda overhaul on party’s 80th anniversary. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un issued new directives to overhaul the Central Committee’s publicity and information department in celebration of the Workers’ Party’s 80th anniversary. His message emphasized educating citizens on the party’s ideology, defending the nuclear arsenal, linking economic and military achievements, and tailoring propaganda to various environments. Jeong Seo-yeong, Daily NK, October 21
51% of S. Koreans say unification with N. Korea not necessary: poll. A majority of South Koreans—51%—believe unification with North Korea is unnecessary, surpassing those in favor for the first time since polling began in 2014, according to the Korea Institute for National Unification. Additionally, 63.2% said peaceful coexistence would eliminate the need for unification, and 68.1% expressed no interest in the North. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, October 20
Thailand
Thai charter amendment panel picks chair, sets a deadline. Nutthawut Buaprathum, a People’s Party list-MP, was elected chair of the 43-member parliamentary committee reviewing Thailand’s constitutional amendment bill. The panel will meet three times weekly from October 22, with only 11 sessions planned before the second reading in late November. The People’s Party bill proposes a 35-member drafting assembly and a 100-member advisory council. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, October 20
Pheu Thai faces crisis after back-to-back by-election defeats. Consecutive by-election losses in Si Sa Ket and Kanchanaburi have shaken the Pheu Thai Party, exposing waning voter confidence, scandal fatigue, and diminishing Shinawatra influence. The Paetongtarn–Hun Sen video controversy, reduced donor support, and Thaksin’s damaged credibility have weakened the party. In contrast, Bhumjaithai’s Anutin Charnvirakul leveraged state power and strong campaign financing to secure both seats. The Nation, October 21
Vietnam
Chinese coastguard patrols disputed reefs controlled by Vietnam in South China Sea. Three Chinese coastguard vessels patrolled areas in the Spratly Islands under Vietnamese control, including reefs with military infrastructure such as runways and harbors. The patrols occurred amid regional tensions, despite recent commitments by Beijing and Hanoi to manage maritime issues peacefully. Vietnam has reclaimed over 8.5 square kilometers of land since 2021. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, October 21
Vietnam targets 10% GDP growth in 2026 despite external pressure. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh announced a 10% GDP growth target for 2026, citing economic resilience despite global headwinds. Growth for 2025 is estimated at 8%, with inflation projected below 4%. Chinh acknowledged structural weaknesses and outlined plans to diversify trade, expand digital infrastructure, and sign new agreements with partners in the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Khanh Vu, Reuters, October 20
Cambodia
S. Korean man found dead in Cambodia: foreign ministry. A South Korean man in his 50s was found dead in a hotel room in Sihanoukville, Cambodia. Local authorities discovered his body Monday evening, along with his passport, phone, and a note presumed to be written by him. While Cambodia faces scrutiny for online scam operations, Seoul believes this case is unrelated. Cambodian police are investigating. Lee Haye-ah and Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, October 21
Indonesia
Indonesian students stage protest as Prabowo marks a year in office. Around 300 students demonstrated near the presidential palace in Jakarta as President Prabowo Subianto completed his first year in office. Protesters condemned policies including the free meals program, which caused food poisoning cases, and broader concerns about lack of public input. Prabowo defended the initiative and pledged to improve education and healthcare despite budget reallocations. Heru Asprihanto, Stefanno Sulaiman, and Stanley Widianto, Reuters, October 20
Taiwan
Taiwan official urges U.S. to help with T-Dome defense network. Deputy Minister Chung Shu-ming urged the U.S. to support Taiwan’s T-Dome initiative, which integrates air defense, communications, and information systems into a layered missile shield. At a defense industry conference in Maryland, Chung noted U.S. arms delivery delays are easing and emphasized joint production, tech transfers, and a “non-red” supply chain to reduce dependence on China. Elaine Hou and Lee Hsin-Yin, Focus Taiwan, October 21
Taiwan to receive 1st Harpoon missile delivery, integrate with radar systems around New Year. Taiwan is set to receive its first batch of U.S.-made Harpoon coastal defense missiles by late December or early January. The delivery includes radar integration to bolster Taiwan’s deterrence against potential Chinese maritime incursions. The move is part of a broader U.S. arms package and supports Taiwan’s T-Dome layered defense initiative. Matt Yu and Sean Lin, Focus Taiwan, October 21
East Asia
The toxic tragedy of US-China trade talks. Negotiations lack dependable back channels and stall under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng after four rounds since May. Public barbs, thin cross-system understanding, and absent personal rapport hinder progress once achieved by Lighthizer and Liu He. Attempts to use tycoons such as Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and Stephen Schwarzman offer messaging but no durable conduit. Washington’s gutted NSC and mixed policy signals add confusion, while Beijing reactivates Cui Tiankai to probe informal routes. A September TikTok ownership deal shows narrow, transactional scope. With Trump favoring improvisation and Xi demanding procedure, prospects center on fragile truces. Malaysia preparatory talks are slated around October 24 regionwide. The Economist, October 20
The Miseducation of Xi Jinping. Orville Schell reviews Joseph Torigian’s study of Xi Zhongxun to explain how party trauma, purges, and rectification forged the family and shaped Xi Jinping’s guarded style. The narrative details the elder Xi’s oscillation between high office and persecution, culminating in exile, struggle sessions, and beatings during the Cultural Revolution, and the lasting scars borne by his children. The book’s archival breadth highlights the CCP’s curated historical record and the difficulty outsiders face reconstructing internal politics. Schell argues that Xi venerates the party and resists reckoning with its violent past, constraining China’s legitimacy despite modernization. The analysis links present opacity to formative survival strategies and poses a larger question of whether honest accounting is possible. Orville Schell, Foreign Affairs, October 20
The New “China Shock” Is Hitting Poor Countries the Hardest. China’s manufacturing surplus is about $2 trillion, with roughly $1.4 trillion from low-skill goods. The import surge now hits a narrow set of sectors in advanced economies, but for low- and middle-income countries it strikes core comparative-advantage industries and equals nearly 4% of combined GDP. China still supplies over half of global low-skill exports despite higher wages than competitors, indicating persistent policy distortions rather than cost alone. Subsidies, currency policy, and excess capacity help lock in dominance, squeezing job creation across the Global South. Limited gestures, including WTO status changes and duty-free access, do not offset crowd-out without China yielding production space. Competitive upgrading stalls regionally. Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian, Project Syndicate, October 20
Agent 012339 Reports for Duty. China’s Ministry of State Security introduces an AI anchor in full uniform to deliver national security warnings and personalize outreach. The debut segment recounts “Dong,” an employee who allegedly sent export manifests, routes, and transaction data abroad via VPN, prompting interceptions and sanctions described as causing losses. The message stresses vigilance by anyone with access to undefined “core information,” and links workplace resentment to harmful leaks framed as threats to national interests. Viewers are urged to report suspicious activity through the 12339 hotline and online portals, a number mirrored by the anchor’s badge. The campaign changes from faceless notices to a personable tone for social media. on WeChat and beyond. Rollout targets vigilance. China Media Project, October 20
Southeast Asia
Securing the ASEAN Economy in an Over-securitised World. Major powers now weaponize interdependence through export controls, tariffs, payment systems, and supply-chain leverage, expanding the security–economy nexus and exposing Southeast Asia to coercion. ASEAN’s non-aligned stance, scale, and convening power help, yet consensus rules, pillar silos, and uneven capacity blunt coordinated responses. Priorities: a cross-pillar strategy, guardrails against vague “national security” measures, shared data, and joint risk monitoring. Existing tools like the Coordinating Council, the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, and the new Geoeconomics Task Force should support cooperation on critical materials, technology, and essentials like food, energy, and healthcare. Larger members should lead and align bilateral deals with regional aims ahead of a joint ministers’ meeting before the 47th Summit in late 2025 regionwide. Julia Tijaja, Muhammad Habib Abiyan Dzakwan, and Rania Teguh, FULCRUM, October 21
Protest wave challenges Indonesia’s authoritarian drift. Demonstrations escalated nationwide after motorcycle taxi driver Affan Kurniawan was killed by a police tactical vehicle in late August 2025, triggering mass mobilizations. Authorities responded with force, arrests, and intimidation. Casualties include eleven dead and hundreds injured, with activists such as Lokataru director Delpedro Marhaen detained on vague charges. Grievances trace to Pati’s 250 percent property tax rise amid fiscal transfer cuts under President Prabowo, compounded by lawmakers’ pay set at 44 times Jakarta’s minimum wage. The analysis situates unrest within democratic erosion since 2017, weakened institutions, and a 2024 election shaped by constitutional manipulation. Outcomes hinge on organization: coordinated civil society could channel dissent; fragmentation risks deeper coercion or martial law. Kahfi Hafiz, East Asia Forum, October 20
South Asia
Are India’s Neighbors Holding It Back? South Asia’s rolling upheavals, from Nepal’s Generation Z revolt to Bangladesh’s monsoon revolution, show structural strains across politics, economies, and demographics. Four neighbors sit in IMF programs, Afghanistan and Myanmar falter, and two nuclear rivals border India, while intraregional trade remains near 5 percent and SAARC has not met since 2014. New Delhi’s global focus sidelined nearby crises, visible at the Raisina Dialogue and amid the April Kashmir attack, even as unrest in Ladakh and Manipur spotlights domestic peripheries. Weak regional forums and prickly ties hamper India’s Act East and West outreach. A reset linking India policy to South Asia’s integration is urged, addressing youth bulge, climate risk, migration, and rising anti-India politics and governance. Chietigj Bajpaee, Foreign Policy, October 20
Oceania
Albanese-Trump Critical Minerals Deal Helps Washington Hedge Its Bets Against China. Australia signed a Washington deal during Albanese’s visit giving the United States greater access to reserves and infrastructure, with a $3 billion joint-investment window over six months targeting $53 billion in minerals and a Pentagon-backed gallium refinery in Western Australia. Trump cast abundance as imminent. The accord fits a broader push to loosen China’s processing dominance by striking resource arrangements with partners. Recent moves include preferential access to Ukraine’s lithium and titanium deposits after fraught talks, Congo-Rwanda cooperation tied to a cease-fire, and Pakistan’s $500 million agreement with U.S. Strategic Metals, which already sent an initial shipment. Washington has also taken stakes in MP Materials and Canadian firms. Rishi Iyengar, Foreign Policy, October 20