Asia Daily: October 17, 2025

China

China’s top advisory body revives Xi’s ideas on diversity and unity ahead of fourth plenum. The CPPCC published a People’s Daily article reaffirming Xi Jinping’s stance on balancing ideological unity with political diversity, while criticizing Western multiparty systems. The piece promotes China’s consultative governance model and warns against threats to Party leadership. It precedes the Communist Party’s fourth plenum, set for October 20–23. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, October 16

Brussels and Beijing lawmakers spar over Russia, Taiwan in first talks since 2018. European and Chinese lawmakers clashed in Brussels over NATO, Ukraine, and Taiwan during their first official dialogue since 2018. Chinese delegates echoed Russian narratives on the Ukraine war and questioned NATO’s legitimacy, alarming EU officials. Tensions persisted despite resumed ties, as mutual distrust over global conflicts dominated the agenda. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, October 16

Japan

U.S. tariff impact seems to be on horizon, Bank of Japan chief warns. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cautioned that U.S. tariffs will likely begin affecting the global economy despite a delayed impact. Speaking after G7 and G20 meetings in Washington, he emphasized ongoing risks and the need for multilateral cooperation. Ueda declined to confirm interest rate moves ahead of the month-end policy meeting. Kyodo News, October 17

Japan weighs destroyer exports to S.E. Asia amid legal challenges. Tokyo is exploring the transfer of decommissioned Abukuma-class escort ships to Southeast Asian partners, particularly the Philippines, to strengthen regional maritime security. Legal constraints under Japan’s arms export policy remain a hurdle, though officials may reclassify the transfer as joint development. Proposed revisions to the Three Principles face internal political resistance. Toshiya Obu and Mizuki Sato, The Asahi Shimbun, October 16

LDP and Nippon Ishin fine-tuning deal to form coalition. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Nippon Ishin no Kai are finalizing plans to form a coalition and back Sanae Takaichi’s election as prime minister next week. Discussions include political funding reforms, a secondary capital, and social security overhaul. Shared ideological roots and former affiliations strengthen alignment between the two parties. Gabriele Ninivaggi, The Japan Times, October 16

South Korea

Trump to visit South Korea October 29–30, South Korea official says. U.S. President Donald Trump will visit South Korea ahead of the APEC summit hosted by Seoul, staying from October 29 to 30. The trip is expected to include bilateral meetings before the regional forum begins on October 31. South Korea’s national security adviser confirmed the visit’s schedule. Jack Kim and Joyce Lee, Reuters, October 16

Chinese sanctions on Hanwha’s U.S. shipbuilding units aim to ‘coerce’ South Korea, State Dept says. The U.S. accused China of using sanctions on Hanwha Ocean’s U.S. subsidiaries—including Philly Shipyard—to pressure South Korea and disrupt defense cooperation. Beijing cited security concerns linked to Hanwha’s U.S. Navy contracts. The sanctions coincide with rising trade tensions and follow South Korea’s $150 billion pledge to support American shipbuilding. Jack Kim and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, October 16

S. Korea to begin deploying ‘monster’ Hyunmoo-5 missile at year-end: defense chief. Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back announced South Korea will deploy the Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile by year-end to deter North Korea’s nuclear threat. The missile, capable of carrying an eight-ton warhead, is central to a strategy of proportional retaliation. Ahn also reaffirmed efforts to regain wartime operational control from the U.S. and increase defense spending. Lee Minji and Kim Hyun-soo, Yonhap News Agency, October 17

North Korea

Thailand

Thaksin still eligible to seek royal pardon. Deputy Prime Minister Borwornsak Uwanno stated that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra may still petition for a royal pardon, countering expert claims of ineligibility. Under Thai law, a convicted individual may seek clemency unless a prior request was rejected, which has not occurred in Thaksin’s case. The decision ultimately rests with the King. Bangkok Post, October 16

Anutin arrives in Laos on first trip as PM. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul met Lao leaders in Vientiane to boost cross-border security and trade during his first official overseas trip. Both countries pledged deeper cooperation on crime, infrastructure, energy, and environmental issues. Five bilateral agreements were signed, and Anutin invited Laos to key regional meetings, marking 75 years of diplomatic ties. Poramet Tangsathaporn, Bangkok Post, October 16

Myanmar

Myanmar elections unlikely to see credible outcome, EU human rights rep says. EU Special Representative Kajsa Ollongren ruled out sending observers to Myanmar’s December election, citing the absence of conditions for a fair vote. She described the polls as regime-sponsored and predetermined. The junta recently admitted elections will not be nationwide due to conflict, further undermining credibility. Danial Azhar, Reuters, October 16

Laos

Laos plans to pull plug on crypto miners by early 2026. Laos will phase out electricity supply to cryptocurrency miners by Q1 2026 to prioritize sectors like AI, EVs, and metals refining. Consumption has already dropped 70% from its peak. The government sees limited economic benefit from crypto operations and aims to redirect power to more productive industries and boost regional exports. Sudarshan Varadhan and Ashley Tang, Reuters, October 16

Laos, Thailand boost ties with focus on economics, connectivity. Prime Ministers Sonexay Siphondone and Anutin Charnvirakul agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation in trade, infrastructure, and security during talks in Vientiane. Thailand pledged over 42 million baht in aid to support anti-drug efforts, education, and water infrastructure. Vientiane Times, October 17

Cambodia

Cambodian military denies border encroachment claims by Thailand. The Royal Cambodian Armed Forces’ Fifth Military Region rejected allegations that Thai authorities encroached on Cambodian territory in Pursat province, stating the road construction occurred entirely within Thailand. The statement reaffirmed commitment to peaceful resolution through the Joint Boundary Commission and cited existing treaties, legal frameworks, and the MoU2000 for border management. Khmer Times, October 17

Philippines

ICI chairman Reyes: ‘Justice is not enough, we need restitution’ in flood control scandal. The Independent Commission for Infrastructure vowed to recover public funds allegedly misused in flood control projects involving contractors Sarah and Curlee Discaya. Chairman Andres Reyes Jr. stressed that beyond prosecution, restitution is essential. Catherine S. Valente and Aric John Sy Cua, The Manila Times, October 17

ICI seeks forfeiture of ₱5-B assets in 2,800 frozen bank accounts. The Independent Commission for Infrastructure is pursuing the forfeiture of ₱5 billion in assets across 2,800 bank accounts frozen by the Anti-Money Laundering Council, aiming for swift restitution in a major corruption probe. A technical working group of 16 agencies was formed, and auction plans are underway for luxury cars tied to suspects Sarah and Curlee Discaya. Gillian Villanueva, Philippine Daily Inquirer, October 16

Indonesia

Indonesia, Timor Leste to revise border trade pact after 2 decades. Indonesia and Timor Leste will update their 21-year-old border trade agreement to improve regulation of traditional market exchanges and ease the flow of daily necessities. Trade Minister Budi Santoso said the revision excludes general exports and imports, focusing on regional integration and regulatory harmonization. Timor Leste plans training missions and further cooperation. ANTARA News, October 17

Malaysia

Trade rebounds in September, exports hit second-highest this year at RM139bil. Malaysia’s trade grew 9.8% year-on-year in September to RM257.51 billion, reversing the prior month’s decline. Exports rose 12.2% to RM138.68 billion, driven by electronics, machinery, and palm oil products. Imports increased 7.3%, producing a RM19.86 billion surplus. Officials warned of continued global trade risks but noted resilience across all major sectors. S. Birruntha, New Straits Times, October 17

India

India’s Modi faces tough Bihar state election; voters angry over unemployment, distrust electoral rolls. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance risks losing ground in Bihar’s November election as youth unemployment, flawed voter lists, and migration issues erode support. Women voters are key amid male labor outflows. The opposition pledges guaranteed jobs per household, while Modi’s bloc relies on subsidy programs to retain its slim polling lead. Saurabh Sharma, Reuters, October 16

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan proposes ‘expert alliance’ to reform global governance. Zhandos Shaimardanov of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies called for a global think tank network to help reshape international governance, citing failures of existing institutions like the UN Security Council. Speaking at the Astana Think Tank Forum, he highlighted Central Asia’s potential as a constructive bloc. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, October 16

East Asia

Xi Jinping’s Global Quartet. People’s Daily highlighted Xi’s Qiushi essay that bundles four initiatives, Global Development, Global Security, Global Civilization, and Global Governance, around the “community of shared future” concept. The package targets four global deficits: peace, development, security, and governance. It promotes inclusive growth via Belt and Road, cooperative security that rejects “absolute security,” respect for civilizational diversity, and a governance turn away from “hegemonism.” State media position Xi as a problem-solver while subordinating BRI as an implementation vehicle. The push increased ahead of a CCP plenum and the UN’s 80th anniversary, and coincides with a narrative on China’s role in founding the UN that erases the ROC. The message: governance stands at a crossroads to turn toward China. David Bandurski, China Media Project, October 16

From chips to cooking oil: Who plays the final card in US–China rivalry? The contest spans semiconductors, commodities, and even used cooking oil, yet complete separation remains unlikely as both sides balance pressure with negotiation. Beijing tightened rare-earth export controls, requiring licenses for goods with over 0.1% Chinese content, a mirror to U.S. long-arm rules. Frictions now include reciprocal port fees and threats to restrict Boeing parts. Both economies pursue staged decoupling to build resilience while acknowledging deep interdependence. The Nexperia dispute shows how allied governments and U.S. regulators shape corporate outcomes and provoke Chinese retaliation. Washington’s ultimate leverage would be financial sanctions and market ejections, a step deemed unlikely outside crisis. Expect tactical moves rather than an endgame. Sim Tze Wei, ThinkChina, October 16

From copycat to custodian: China’s piracy crackdown meets Trump’s threats. Trump again threatened 100% tariffs on foreign-made films, while China strengthened enforcement at home. Police reported 2.29 million infringing links tied to Spring Festival releases as “Venom: The Last Dance” grossed over $90 million. Platforms face liability under Sword Net 2025, and courts fined Kuaishou 1.6 million yuan for hosting thousands of unauthorized clips. Authorities cite rising IP cases and demand tighter moderation. Hollywood studios also sued MiniMax over AI-generated characters. Compliance costs will rise as platforms expand content-fingerprinting and takedowns, even if engagement dips. The next test is whether penalties scale and whether faster releases curb leaks. Beijing links stricter policing to soft-power ambitions and industry credibility too. Vivian Toh, Nikkei Asia, October 16

Takaichi’s victory is a milestone on the road to a new party system in Japan. Sanae Takaichi defeated Shinjiro Koizumi in the 4 October LDP presidential runoff, aided by Taro Aso’s intact organizational network after broader factional erosion. Party member ballots proved pivotal following the LDP’s July setback and the rise of Sanseito, drawing support to a leader seen as able to consolidate conservative voters. Komeito dissolved the 26-year coalition on 10 October, accelerating a rightward tilt and forcing a minority government. A Takaichi cabinet would confront weak legislative footing, stress inflation control and local grants, mirror Abenomics fiscally, and keep continuity on security and the US alliance. Masaya Inoue, East Asia Forum, October 16

Southeast Asia

A Gathering Storm: How Prabowo’s Fiscal Centralisation and Out-of-Touch Elites Fuel Discontent and Protests. Prabowo articulated a top-down economic doctrine anchored in Article 33 and launched expansive schemes, Free Nutritious Meals, Red and White Cooperatives, and the Danantara fund, staffed by loyalists, including former generals. Deep cuts to regional transfers, with up to 270 trillion rupiah reallocated to central ministries, spurred gubernatorial pushback and street unrest that spread from Pati into broader riots. Economists’ “17+8” demands urge retrenchment of populist programs, deregulation, and institutional reform. Food-safety failures in the meals program, with more than 12,000 poisoning cases by 5 October, amplified anger. Limited revisions to transfer budgets and talk of police reform have not altered the centralising trajectory, risking wider resistance. Kennedy Muslim and Burhanuddin Muhtadi, FULCRUM, October 16

Indonesia–Timor-Leste talks put Australia’s Timor Sea stakes back in focus. Indonesia opened maritime boundary negotiations with Timor-Leste in August 2025, reversing its prior sequencing that sea delimitation follows settled land borders. Three unresolved segments remain: the Timor Sea south, the Ombai and Wetar Straits north, and the Ombai enclave. History sets the frame: Australia’s 1972 shelf treaty and the unratified 1997 Perth EEZ pact, later overtaken by Timor-Leste’s 2016 UNCLOS conciliation that established a permanent median-line and expanded Dili’s resource control. The dialogue elevates tripoint questions with Australia and carries implications for claims, resource management, and stability. Outcomes may reopen Indonesia–Australia arrangements and give Jakarta leverage informed by Dili’s precedent. Pornomo Rovan Astri Yoga, East Asia Forum, October 16

The Intangible Yet Unmistakable Costs of Myanmar’s Political Crisis. The junta, rebranded as the State Security and Peace Commission, plans December 28 elections with only military-linked parties participating, seeking legitimacy despite systemic exclusion and mass violence that has displaced millions. Illicit economies flourishing in borderlands fuel scam centres and transnational crime, shifting burdens to states, banks, and citizens. Rare-earth extraction in Kachin and Shan, tied to ethnic armed organizations and Chinese operators, embeds external interests and environmental harm. ASEAN prioritises cessation of violence yet lacks leverage; durable mitigation requires engaging non-state actors alongside official channels. Sharon Seah, FULCRUM, October 16

How Timor-Leste Joining ASEAN Will Impact U.S.–China Competition. Timor-Leste’s expected accession as ASEAN’s 11th member improves its diplomatic reach and may subtly strengthen democratic and rules-based constituencies within the bloc. Alignment with international law and ties to U.S. partners could aid Washington, though China retains economic primacy through Belt and Road projects, including the Suai expressway and irrigation works. Membership may constrain overt security cooperation with Australia and the United States due to ASEAN norms. Evolving U.S. priorities under Trump and a possible Xi meeting could reduce attention to Southeast Asia, opening space for Beijing. Overall impact favors the United States if engagement persists. Derek Grossman, Foreign Policy, October 16

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