The Asia Cable is now on Instagram! Follow us here for news updates as you scroll!
Japan's ruling LDP at risk of losing majority in election, polls show. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) risks losing its majority in the lower house in the upcoming October 27 election, according to multiple media polls. The LDP may not secure the 233 seats required for an outright majority in the 465-seat house, forcing them to rely on coalition partner Komeito for continued governance. Support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet has fallen to 28%, a record low for new governments since 2000. The LDP’s reliance on Komeito could shift policy direction, particularly regarding defense and military issues. Rocky Swift, Kantaro Komiya, Tim Kelly and John Geddie, Reuters, October 17
Senior diplomats of S. Korea, Japan discuss bilateral ties, N. Korea. Senior diplomats from South Korea and Japan met Thursday to discuss advancing bilateral relations and addressing North Korea's nuclear threats. South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun and Japan's Vice Foreign Minister Masataka Okano agreed to collaborate on projects for the 60th anniversary of their diplomatic relations in 2025, aiming for results that would benefit both nations. The meeting also focused on maintaining close coordination with the U.S. to address North Korea's provocations. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, October 17
Takaichi goes on offensive to help Ishiba-penalized candidates. Sanae Takaichi, a former candidate for prime minister, is campaigning for candidates disciplined by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba over a political funding scandal. These candidates, many from the Abe faction, lost their party endorsements in the upcoming Oct. 27 election for not reporting fundraising income. Takaichi, despite her recent loss in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race, is using this campaign to build support within the party. Her influence is growing, particularly among LDP members dissatisfied with Ishiba’s leadership. Taishi Sasayama and Keishi Nishimura, The Asahi Shimbun, October 17
Vietnam, Laos National Assemblies urged to expand cooperation. Leaders of Vietnam and Laos emphasized the need for stronger cooperation between their national assemblies during a meeting on Wednesday. National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue and his Lao counterpart, Saysomphone Phomvihane, discussed strengthening legislative ties, particularly in legal frameworks, oversight, and parliamentary diplomacy. Both sides underscored the importance of continued collaboration in areas such as education, economics, and regional security. They also called for enhanced coordination within the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly and international forums. Vietnam News, October 17
PH, Malaysia resume joint commission meet. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo and Malaysian Foreign Minister Dato' Seri Utama Haji Mohamad Bin Haji Hasan co-chaired the 8th Philippine-Malaysia Joint Commission Meeting (JCM) in Kuala Lumpur, marking its first session since 2011. The meeting focused on strengthening bilateral ties, reviewing progress since the last dialogue, and discussing regional issues. Manalo will also visit Thailand to co-chair the Philippines-Thailand Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation as part of his regional diplomatic engagements. The Manila Times, October 17
India denies Canadian allegation that it uses mobsters to target Sikh separatists in Canada. India’s government denied accusations made by Canadian officials that it collaborates with mobsters to target Sikh separatists in Canada, amid escalating diplomatic tensions. India's External Affairs Ministry refuted claims of involvement, suggesting Canada has resisted extradition requests for those accused of crimes. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had earlier alleged that Indian diplomats shared information with criminal groups involved in attacks on Sikh activists. The dispute deepened after the killing of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023. Ashok Sharma, AP News, October 17
Bangladesh crimes tribunal issues arrest warrant for exiled former prime minister. Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal issued an arrest warrant for exiled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, currently in India, over her alleged role in mass killings during protests earlier this year. The protests, initially led by students against job quotas, turned into deadly violence, leaving over 700 dead. Hasina fled to India on August 5 as an interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, took power. The tribunal ordered her arrest by November 18 amid numerous complaints of enforced disappearances and killings. Ruma Paul, Reuters, October 17
New requirements for citizenship approved in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has introduced new requirements for citizenship applicants, effective October 8, 2024. Applicants must now demonstrate a basic understanding of the Kazakh language, the Constitution, and the country's history. The new test, which lasts over two hours, includes 60 questions on the Kazakh language and sections on the Constitution and history. A minimum score of 60 out of 100 points is required to pass. The changes aim to strengthen national identity and align with practices in countries like Germany and Canada. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, October 17
Thaksin shows up quietly at court. Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra made a low-profile court appearance in Bangkok on Thursday to comply with his parole conditions following his corruption conviction. He reported in connection to his ongoing lese-majeste case, which stems from remarks made in a 2015 interview. This visit follows his early release from prison in August due to health issues. Thaksin, who returned to Thailand in August after years in exile, must regularly report to the court as part of his parole. Wassayos Ngamkham, Bangkok Post, October 17
Zelenskyy says N. Korea is preparing 10,000 troops to help Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that North Korea is preparing to send 10,000 soldiers to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine. Citing Ukrainian intelligence, Zelenskyy reported that North Korean personnel are already present in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, with more troops expected. He attributed Russia's reliance on foreign forces to its domestic troop shortages, as many young Russians avoid conscription. Zelenskyy discussed the issue with U.S. and EU officials, signaling growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, October 17
China expanding economic presence in South Caucasus. China is increasing its strategic influence in the South Caucasus through recent trade and infrastructure agreements with Georgia and Azerbaijan. In September, China and Georgia signed a memorandum to boost trade, streamline customs, and enhance logistics security. Similarly, China is deepening its partnership with Azerbaijan, focusing on expanding the Middle Corridor, a key trade route. These efforts align with China’s broader goal to enhance East-West trade and solidify ties within the region. Eurasianet, October 17
Dollar tops 150 yen for 1st time since early August. The U.S. dollar surpassed 150 yen on Thursday in New York, its first time crossing that mark since early August. The surge followed stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). The widening interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan has driven demand for the dollar. The ECB's decision to reduce rates to 3.25%, coupled with firm U.S. economic data, further weakened the yen. At 5 p.m., the dollar was trading at 150.19-29 yen. Kyodo News, October 17
China urges India to handle Taiwan issue cautiously after Mumbai office opening. China has called on India to exercise caution in handling Taiwan-related matters following the opening of Taiwan's de facto consulate in Mumbai. Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, reiterated Beijing’s opposition to any official ties between countries and Taiwan, which China considers its territory. The opening of Taiwan's third representative office in India, amid ongoing Sino-Indian efforts to resolve border tensions, prompted China to urge India to adhere to its commitment to the "one-China" principle. Reuters, October 17
Chinese company to build FMD vaccine production plant in Kyrgyzstan. China’s Yangling Jinhai Biotechnology Co., Ltd. will construct a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccine production facility in Kyrgyzstan, following discussions with Kyrgyz officials. The project will encompass the entire production cycle, from livestock care to vaccine production. This initiative aims to enhance Kyrgyzstan's veterinary security and reduce the spread of infectious livestock diseases, vital for the country’s agricultural sector. Local specialists will also receive training as part of the project. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, October 16
How Australia’s Foreign Student Cap Could Erode Its Regional Influence: An Indonesian View. A proposed cap on international student enrolments in Australia may harm its influence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia. Many Indonesian leaders, including prominent figures such as Marty Natalegawa and Boediono, studied in Australia. The cap threatens these soft-power connections, which are crucial for Australia's regional influence. Limiting educational access could push Indonesian students to other countries, weakening Australia’s diplomatic and cultural relationships in the Indo-Pacific. Hangga Fathana, Lowy Institute, October 18
North Korean Troops in Russia: The First Test of the Russia-North Korea Alliance. Reports suggest that North Korean troops may be deployed to Russian-occupied Donbas as part of a growing military alliance. If confirmed, North Korea’s involvement would test the strength of its defense pact with Russia. Possible roles for North Korean soldiers include maintaining weapons or directly fighting alongside Russian troops. Khang Vu, Lowy Institute, October 17
How Beijing Is Closing Surveillance Gaps in the South China Sea. China is expanding its surveillance capabilities in the South China Sea with new radar systems on Triton Island. Satellite images reveal the construction of advanced counter-stealth radar systems, part of a broader strategy to improve intelligence and electronic warfare capabilities across contested waters. This development strengthens China's military presence and undermines Vietnam's ability to operate undetected in the region, while also challenging U.S. and allied forces. John Pollock and Damien Symon, Chatham House, October 17
L.E.A.D. Legislative Brief: 118th Congress Pushing for Further Decoupling with China during the “China Week” as Election Approaches. In early September 2024, the U.S. House passed 27 China-related bills in a attempt to decouple from China in critical technologies like biotechnology and telecommunications. These measures aim to restrict Chinese access to U.S. resources, bolster export controls, and counter China’s global influence. As the election nears, these legislative moves reflect growing bipartisan concerns over China’s rising strategic competition and technological dominance. Yilun Zhang, Amanda Jin and Ao Gu, ICAS, October 16
Pyongyang Worries About the Collapse of Its Won. North Korea’s won has sharply devalued, halving in value since July 2024. Internal government concerns over inflation and a potential banking crisis have surfaced as market prices soar. The regime faces pressure to stabilize the currency amidst rising food costs and social discontent. With limited options due to sanctions and weak exports, Pyongyang may struggle to maintain economic stability. William Brown, Korea Economic Institute, October 17
Transatlantic Policies on China: Is There a Role for Türkiye? Türkiye's role in transatlantic policies on China is becoming more relevant as the U.S. and Europe strengthen their stance against Beijing. Ankara, while balancing its relations with China, seeks to leverage its geopolitical position between the East and West. Despite being a NATO ally, Türkiye has deepened economic ties with China and avoids directly confronting it. However, its foreign policy's flexibility and ambitions could make Türkiye a potential mediator in the broader geopolitical competition between the West and China, though contradictions in its relations with Russia and internal political challenges complicate this role. Sinan Ülgen, Carnegie Endowment, October 17
Less Is More for Indonesia’s Tariffs on China. Indonesia’s plan to impose a 200% tariff on Chinese imports could harm its trade commitments, particularly under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. Such measures may violate World Trade Organization rules and strain relations with China. While intended to protect local industries, high tariffs may backfire, stifling investment and productivity. Indonesia is advised to pursue alternative strategies, such as anti-dumping measures, that comply with international trade laws. Krisna Gupta and Deasy Pane, East Asia Forum, October 18
Track Two Dialogue Is Key to Unlocking Quad–ASEAN Cooperation. To overcome the perception that the Quad is an "anti-China" alliance, informal dialogues among experts (track two diplomacy) could strengthen Quad-ASEAN cooperation. This fosters trust and collaboration on shared challenges like climate change, public health, and infrastructure. An annual Quad–ASEAN dialogue would help reduce misconceptions, promote regional public goods, and ensure ASEAN centrality in Indo-Pacific initiatives. Angeline Tan and Ava Kalinauskas, East Asia Forum, October 17
Deterring a Nuclear North Korea: What Does the Theory Tell Us? North Korea’s nuclear capabilities have transformed the security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula, raising concerns about whether deterrence remains effective. However, deterrence theory suggests that clear demands, credible threats, and assurances are still applicable. The U.S.-ROK alliance is robust, but the risk of escalation through lower-level provocations or miscalculations remains. Strengthening deterrence while managing these risks is key to maintaining stability. Terence Roehrig and David Logan, 38 North, October 17
Vietnam’s Grand Strategic Architecture Amid the Russia-Ukraine War. Vietnam has reinforced its foreign policy of balancing great powers in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. Guided by its "four no's" policy—no military alliances, no siding with countries, no foreign bases, no use of force—Vietnam has strengthened ties with the U.S. while maintaining close relations with Russia and China. This aims to safeguard Vietnam's national security amidst shifting global dynamics. Alexander L. Vuving, The Diplomat, October 17
Prabowo’s 8% Growth Gamble: Reform or Bureaucratic Bloat? Indonesia’s president-elect, Prabowo Subianto, aims for 8% annual economic growth during his term, but concerns arise over his cabinet expansion. The move toward nearly 100 appointees, many seen as political rewards, risks bureaucratic inefficiency. To achieve his growth target, Indonesia requires institutional reforms, improved fiscal management, and support for the middle class. Without these changes, Prabowo’s ambitious goals may be hindered by administrative bloat and fiscal constraints. Rania Teguh, The Diplomat, October 17
Cambodia’s Trilateral Deal Pullout Strains Its Relations with Vietnam.
Cambodia’s withdrawal from the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area (CLV-DTA) has surprised Vietnam, straining relations between the two countries. The CLV-DTA, which uplifted economic and security cooperation, has long faced nationalist criticism in Cambodia, leading to Phnom Penh’s retreat. Cambodia’s move may strengthen domestic support, but it risks undermining bilateral ties and cooperation on border security with Vietnam. Huynh Tam Sang, Fulcrum, October 17
Ringgit’s Appreciation: A Longer View. The recent appreciation of the Malaysian ringgit, driven by export growth and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, may not be sustainable long term. Structural changes in Malaysia's economy, such as the rise of the non-tradable sector and a declining trade ratio, suggest the currency’s strength might be temporary. The increasing role of services and lower investment in the tradable sector could weaken Malaysia's external balance, potentially leading to long-term depreciation.
Cassey Lee, Fulcrum, October 17