China
China to keep its ‘all about production’ economic playbook as rivalry with U.S. intensifies. Beijing will maintain a supply-driven economic strategy centered on high-tech manufacturing and industrial strength, despite long-standing goals to boost domestic consumption. Analysts expect limited support for households as geopolitical rivalry with Washington intensifies. Claire Fu, Ellen Zhang, Kevin Yao and Marius Zaharia, Reuters, October 15
Chinese arms makers urged to embrace AI technology in weapons development. A state-run defense magazine called on China’s arms manufacturers to adopt artificial intelligence to enhance weapon design, efficiency and simulation capabilities. The article, published by Norinco’s Modern Weaponry, emphasized AI’s potential to modernize legacy systems but also warned of associated risks, recommending cautious implementation. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, October 15
Japan
LDP, opposition JIP near coalition as Komeito leaves. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition Japan Innovation Party began talks on forming a coalition after Komeito ended its 26-year alliance with the LDP. The move clears a path for Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s first female prime minister. Despite shared conservative views, the new bloc would still fall short of a parliamentary majority. Kyodo News, October 16
Bessent says Trump to visit Japan in late October. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that President Donald Trump will travel to Japan later this month before attending the APEC summit in South Korea. The visit is expected to include meetings with Emperor Naruhito and Japan’s next prime minister. Trump also plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping amid renewed trade tensions. Kyodo News, October 16
South Korea
Bessent says U.S. expects to finalize trade deal with South Korea in next 10 days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington and Seoul are nearing completion of a trade agreement involving $350 billion in South Korean investments and reduced U.S. tariffs. Both sides aim to conclude the deal before the late October APEC summit. Currency swap discussions remain unresolved. David Lawder and Andrea Shalal, Reuters, October 15
South Korean presidential policy chief says ‘optimistic’ about U.S. tariff talks. South Korea’s top policy adviser expressed confidence in finalizing a trade deal with the U.S., echoing earlier remarks from senior officials citing significant progress. The proposed agreement includes reduced auto tariffs in exchange for a $350 billion investment package. Seoul seeks currency safeguards amid market concerns. Jack Kim, Jihoon Lee and Hyunjoo Jin, Reuters, October 16
Gov’t response team to meet Cambodian PM over job scams targeting S. Koreans. A South Korean delegation led by Vice Foreign Minister Kim Ji-na arrived in Cambodia to address a growing crisis involving job scams and the mistreatment of Korean nationals. The team plans meetings with Prime Minister Hun Manet and other officials to secure the repatriation of 61 detainees and coordinate investigations into scam-related deaths. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, October 16
North Korea
Russian delegation arrives in Pyongyang for joint committee meeting on economic cooperation. A Russian forestry delegation led by Grigory Gusev arrived in Pyongyang to attend the 28th subcommittee meeting of the Intergovernmental Committee for Cooperation in Trade, Economy and Science. The visit reflects expanding bilateral ties since North Korea deployed troops to assist Russia in Ukraine, with cooperation extending into health, education, and economic sectors. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, October 15
Thailand
March 29 proposed as Thai election date. Deputy Prime Minister Borwornsak Uwanno proposed holding Thailand’s general election on March 29, 2026, alongside a constitutional referendum to save costs and comply with a political agreement between the Bhumjaithai and People’s parties. Two of three amendment bills passed their first reading, setting the stage for a new charter-drafting assembly. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, October 15
Landmines that sparked Thai-Cambodia clash were likely newly-laid, experts say. Independent analysts concluded that PMN-2 anti-personnel mines that injured Thai soldiers in July were recently planted, challenging Cambodia’s claim they were remnants of past conflicts. Thailand presented photo and video evidence tied to recent demining efforts, while Cambodia denied responsibility and called for third-party investigation. Panu Wongcha-Um and Devjyot Ghoshal, Reuters, October 16
PM cops flak for Interior reshuffle. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul faces backlash over the transfer of more than 45 senior Interior Ministry officials, including newly appointed provincial governors. Critics say the reshuffle reflects political patronage by the Bhumjaithai Party ahead of elections, undermines local governance, and disrupts crisis management efforts. Academics and MPs called for direct gubernatorial elections. Chakrapan Natanri and Panumet Tanraksa, Bangkok Post, October 16
Myanmar
Myanmar junta chief admits election won’t be nationwide, as war continues. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing conceded that ongoing conflict will prevent nationwide voting in Myanmar’s December general election. Only 145 of 330 townships were covered in a full census, and restrictive party requirements limit competition. The junta invited ASEAN observers, but critics dismiss the polls as an attempt to legitimize military rule. Naw Betty Han, Reuters, October 15
Cambodia
South Korea issues travel ban for parts of Cambodia after nationals trapped in scam centres. Seoul imposed a “code-black” travel ban on regions of Cambodia following the death of a student allegedly tortured by a criminal gang. Over 1,000 South Koreans are believed trapped in scam compounds. A government taskforce aims to repatriate dozens held since July. Jack Kim, Reuters, October 15
Philippines
South Korean defence giant hit by Chinese sanctions offers anti-ship missile to Manila. Hanwha Group has offered its CTM-ASBM anti-ship missile system to the Philippines amid escalating maritime tensions and Chinese sanctions targeting its U.S. subsidiaries. The move reflects Seoul’s closer defense ties with Washington and Manila. The missile, compatible with the K239 Chunmoo launcher, could strengthen Philippine coastal defenses. Seong Hyeon Choi, South China Morning Post, October 15
Marcos, Duterte trust ratings continue to fall in 2 national surveys. Public trust in President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte declined in recent SWS and PUBLiCUS Asia polls, with Duterte seeing the steepest drop. Economic concerns such as inflation and underemployment topped respondents’ priorities. Support remained strong for anti-corruption efforts and welfare policies despite growing demand for accountability. Franco Jose C. Baroña and Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, October 15
Indonesia
Indonesia’s exports to U.S. and China keep rising amid trade war. Trade Minister Budi Santoso reported continued growth in Indonesian exports to both the U.S. and China despite rising bilateral tensions. Non-oil and gas exports to China reached $40.44 billion and to the U.S. $20.60 billion from January to August 2025. Santoso emphasized boosting product standards to sustain competitiveness. ANTARA News, October 15
Indonesia set to receive Chengdu J-10 fighter jets from China. Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin confirmed that Indonesia will soon receive Chinese-made Chengdu J-10 fighter jets, although the delivery timeline remains undisclosed. The Indonesian Air Force is reviewing the aircraft for operational suitability. The deal reportedly includes 42 jets under a payment scheme facilitated by China, following earlier delays due to funding issues. ANTARA News, October 15
Singapore
Singapore not campaigning to be part of Trump’s Gaza ‘Board of Peace’: Vivian Balakrishnan. Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan stated that Singapore is not seeking a seat on the proposed U.S.-led Gaza “Board of Peace,” emphasizing the country’s preference for quiet, constructive support over high-profile involvement. He highlighted Singapore’s ongoing cooperation with the Palestinian Authority and contributions in healthcare and training, while reaffirming a principled, discreet approach. Fabian Koh, Channel News Asia, October 15
Taiwan
Schriver positive on U.S. arms sales if budget passes. Former U.S. defense official Randall Schriver said arms sales to Taiwan are likely if Taipei enacts its proposed NT$550 billion special defense budget. The package aims to extend wartime reserves and boost military capacity. Schriver supported sales beyond invasion scenarios and endorsed U.S.-Taiwan joint production to mitigate logistical risks. Taipei Times, October 15
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan, U.S. to strengthen ties through economic cooperation and investment opportunities. Kazakh officials presented a proactive growth strategy to U.S. investors in Washington, highlighting sectors like manufacturing, transport, and energy with over $100 billion in investment potential. They invited international participation and proposed expanding Honeywell’s regional role. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, October 15
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyz authorities open public debate on death penalty bill. The Kyrgyz government launched a nationwide consultation on reinstating capital punishment for rape and murder involving women and children, following a rise in violent crimes. A draft bill cites constitutional protections and international conventions. The public debate runs until October 28, with parliamentary review scheduled by November 4. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, October 15
Kyrgyzstan GDP up 10% in Jan–Sept year-on-year as Ukraine war reroutes supply chains. Kyrgyzstan’s economy expanded 10% in the first nine months of 2025, reaching $13.7 billion, driven by growth in construction, trade, mining and industry. The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia diverted supply chains through Kyrgyzstan, increasing its economic role but also attracting Western sanctions. Aigerim Turgunbaeva, Reuters, October 15
East Asia
Self-Strengthening for Strategic Competition: What to Watch at China’s Fourth Plenum. From October 20–23, the Central Committee meets in Beijing to issue Proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will guide 2026–2030 policy. A Five-Year Plan sets national targets and proceeds to State Council drafting before March 2026 publication at the Two Sessions. The plenum will stress techno-industrial self-reliance with incremental structural reforms, and attendance will illuminate the scope of recent purges. Xi’s planning drive, including a forthcoming National Development Planning Law and an expanded multi-level, multi-type planning architecture, underpins the process. Earlier decisions introduced the “new development philosophy” and “dual circulation,” binding growth to security and resilience. Neil Thomas, Lobsang Tsering, Shengyu Wang, and Jing Qian, Asia Society, October 1
The America v China spat reveals a dangerous dynamic. New Chinese controls on batteries and rare earths require licences even for foreign goods with trace content, with “light-touch” implementation constrained by cautious officials. Markets rebounded, yet both sides misread intent and the economic backdrop. Trump weighs triple-digit tariffs, software cutoffs that could hobble Chinese chips, and wider sanctions; Beijing can harry US firms, evidenced by a Qualcomm probe. China’s exports rose 8% in September as sales shifted from America ahead of a planned October 29 meeting. Interdependence now implies mutually assured disruption, with each tightening controls while seeking escape. The Economist, October 15
With Tariff Threat and Trade Controls, China and U.S. Renew Game of Chicken. China tightened rare-earth export controls, prompting tit-for-tat moves as Washington threatened 100 percent tariffs and Beijing blacklisted five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha. Trump also threatened curbs on Chinese cooking oil, while both sides raised port fees on shipping. The measures followed a September Commerce Department expansion of entity-list rules, which Beijing saw as undermining negotiations and a Sept. 19 Xi–Trump call. Analysts say Beijing sought Trump’s attention before a Party meeting, but the gambit unnerved Europe and drew pushback. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled tighter U.S. control over strategic firms and a Xi–Trump meeting at APEC turned uncertain. David Pierson, The New York Times, October 15
Trump risks selling out Taiwan in bid for China ‘reset’. Before a likely Xi-Trump meeting this month, Washington mixed conciliation with pressure: $400 million in Taiwan aid was scrapped and President Lai’s U.S. transits canceled, while AUKUS stayed intact, a record post-summit arms package was readied, and 100 percent tariffs were threatened after China’s rare-earth controls. Beijing’s price for a reset reportedly includes an explicit U.S. stance that it “oppose” Taiwan independence, moving from “does not support.” This creates a risk of transactional bargaining that trades concessions on trade or fentanyl, or personal benefits, for weaker Taiwan backing. Two checks exist: Trump may reject such terms, and he promotes an anti-war image. Derek Grossman, Nikkei Asia, October 16
China’s Rare-Earths Export Controls Hit EU Rearmament – but Open a Strategic Window. China’s restrictions on seven rare earths and magnets threaten European defense supply chains, as the EU imports 98 percent of permanent-magnet components from China. The Critical Raw Materials Act entered into force in May 2024, yet decade-long project timelines and missing public funding limit impact. Defense budgets are rising to a projected €381 billion in 2025, with additional EU and German plans totaling hundreds of billions, creating room to finance resilient REE sourcing. Recommended tools include procurement mandates for recycled or non-Chinese magnets, price guarantees, and a coordinated, broadened CRMA that covers more REEs. Germany’s experience shows why state backstops matter, and Japan’s playbook offers lessons as the EU builds partnerships and strategic projects. Niklas Hintermayer and Antonia Hmaidi, China Observers, October 15
Less goods, fewer shipments: China’s truck drivers first to feel the pulse of the economy. Long-haul loads and take-home pay have dropped sharply, with incomes for many falling from above 20,000 RMB during Covid-19 to just over 10,000 RMB, while job waits lengthen and some trips run at a loss. Platforms depress rates below cost, and zero-down truck loans flood the market with new entrants. Around 38 million drivers face weaker demand despite headline growth; a 2025 survey reports broad income declines. Structural shifts and rising expenses squeeze margins, mirroring ride-hailing dynamics. Li Kang, ThinkChina, October 15
Molding the Message. Journalism training in China is defined as service to the Party’s “news and public opinion work,” not adversarial reporting. On October 11, 2025, propaganda officials, media managers, and academics met in Beijing for the China Journalism and Communication Forum, an annual event running since 2020 that aligns classroom instruction with state media practice. Organizers report 192 long-form and 500 short video courses reaching over 200,000 students and faculty at more than 700 universities nationwide. The 2025 forum gathered 32 lead instructors from 22 outlets and representatives from 11 universities, and promoted a “Marxist View of Journalism.” This year’s theme, “New Thought Leads the New Journey: Journalists’ Adherence to Principle and Innovation,” stressed loyalty to Party orthodoxy while updating methods. Dalia Parete, China Media Project, October 14
From Beijing to Beijing: Thirty Years of Progress and Challenges in Global Gender Equality. Beijing’s 1995 conference established the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action and in 2025 Beijing hosts a Global Women’s Summit to mark that legacy. Over three decades, gains include near universal schooling for girls, a one-third drop in maternal mortality, doubled parliamentary representation, and far broader domestic-violence legislation, now 1,583 laws in 193 countries. Yet no gender-related SDG is on track. At current pace the global gap closes in 123 years, while hundreds of millions face conflict exposure, weak protection, and widening digital divides. Priorities include leadership, practical empowerment, and North–South cooperation, alongside China’s white paper and “her economy” milestones. Miao Lu, U.S.-China Perception Monitor, October 15
In China, Racist AI-Generated Videos Are Popular Rage-Bait. AI-made clips depicting interracial relationships circulate on WeChat, Kuaishou, and Douyin despite 2023 rules forbidding discriminatory synthesis. Common plots include a Chinese student following an African partner to a nonspecific country and facing abuse, joyous mixed couples framed to inflame, and performative rejections in subway scenes linked to Guangzhou. Watermarks indicate domestic tools such as Qwen, Doubao, and Jimeng. Historical roots, including late-Qing racial hierarchies and campus clashes in the 1980s, inform reception today. Gender anxiety, skewed sex ratios, dowry costs, and school policies against dating amplify backlash. Censors prioritize stability, intervening when diplomacy is at risk, so the material persists and reaches older users who mistake fiction for reality. Joshua Dummer, Foreign Policy, October 15
CPEC relaunch exposes China–Pakistan interdependence. CPEC’s second phase has lagged due to attacks on Chinese personnel, slow repayments, and weak execution, yet Beijing signaled renewed commitment during 2025 diplomacy, promoting a “2.0” upgrade in agriculture, industry, and mining. A 23-page Action Plan revived stalled priorities but offered few concrete timelines. China faces reputational stakes as BRI flagship while Pakistan’s instability and bureaucratic frictions deter investors. Still, Pakistan’s location near the Strait of Hormuz and access to the Arabian Sea keep the corridor strategically vital amid US–China competition. Both sides need the partnership. Pakistan seeks capital and cover, China seeks reliability, and Beijing’s rollovers indicate persistence despite risk. Sajjad Ashraf, East Asia Forum, October 15
How Taiwanese firms became the US’s secret weapon against China’s rise. Decades of tight links with US multinationals embedded Taiwanese producers in regional networks and supported American competitiveness, including sustained US surpluses in intellectual-property charges with Taiwan. Higher US tariffs and controls accelerate Taiwanese relocation from the mainland, eroding China’s export role. China’s consumer-goods share of US imports fell from 39% in 2018 to 27% in 2024 and high-tech export intensity also declined. Firms are unlikely to return to China given steeper US duties, pushing new hubs where tariff exposure is lower. Min-Hua Chiang, ThinkChina, October 15
Southeast Asia
Performing control in Southeast Asia’s drug wars. Drug enforcement doubles as populist spectacle across Southeast Asia, securitizing borders, legitimizing harsh sentencing, and concentrating punishment on migrants and minorities severely. Mary Jane Veloso’s near-15-year death-row ordeal in Indonesia illustrates risks facing trafficked workers. Duterte’s campaign in the Philippines produced thousands of extrajudicial killings and mass detention, yet persists under Marcos Jr. Indonesia’s hardline penalties criminalize users and hinder treatment, worsening HIV transmission. Reforms in Malaysia and Singapore curbed death sentences, though Singapore carried out four drug executions in 2024. Thaksin’s revived push in Thailand frames drugs as a transnational threat. UNODC notes synthetic output in the Golden Triangle yet crackdowns miss Myanmar’s vacuum and strengthen crime networks. Lena Diakité and Teresa Jopson, East Asia Forum, October 15
Looking forward to diving in