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China ends war games around Taiwan, but leaves door open to more. China's military concluded the "Joint Sword-2024B" exercises near Taiwan, involving warships, aircraft, and drills around key ports and areas. The exercises, aimed at pressuring Taiwan's independence movement, were a response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech. Beijing condemned Lai's remarks and vowed to intensify pressure if Taiwan's independence efforts persist. The U.S. and Taiwan criticized the drills as destabilizing, though they appeared less intense than previous ones. Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee, Reuters, October 14
UN rights body criticizes prison sentences for Kyrgyz journalists. The United Nations and international organizations have condemned the sentencing of two Kyrgyz journalists, Azamat Ishenbekov and Makhabat Tazhibek kyzy, to five and six years in prison for inciting unrest. The UN criticized the trial for its lack of due process, urging Kyrgyz authorities to reassess the vague legal provisions targeting journalists. The Committee to Protect Journalists sees the convictions as retaliation for reporting on government corruption. The Times of Central Asia, October 14
Canada expels India’s top diplomat and alleges wider diplomatic involvement in crimes. Canada has expelled India’s top diplomat and five others amid accusations of involvement in the June 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of targeting Canadian citizens and passing information to organized crime. India denied the allegations and retaliated by expelling Canadian diplomats. The dispute deepens already strained relations over India's concerns about Canada's handling of Sikh separatists. Aijaz Hussain, Sheikh Saaliq, and Rob Gillies, AP News, October 14
NA Chairman to pay official visit to Laos, attend AIPA-45. Vietnam's National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man will lead a high-level delegation to Laos from October 17-19 for an official visit and to attend the 45th ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly (AIPA-45) General Assembly. The visit comes at the invitation of Lao NA Chairman Saysomphone Phomvihane and aims to strengthen the two nations' parliamentary relations and foster cooperation within ASEAN. Vietnam News, October 14
ASEAN summits conclude with key agreements, leadership transition to Malaysia. The 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits in Vientiane resulted in over 90 agreements, focusing on regional security, economic cooperation, and sustainable development. Notable agreements include declarations on supply chain connectivity and promoting sustainable agriculture. ASEAN reaffirmed its commitment to resolving the Myanmar crisis and strengthening ties with partners like China and India. Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone handed over leadership to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim for 2025. Phonethida Sitthixay, The Laotian Times, October 14
N. Korea says it ordered front-line artillery units to fully prepare to open fire. North Korea has ordered artillery units along the border with South Korea to be on high alert and ready to fire, following claims that South Korean drones flew over Pyongyang. The North's defense ministry stated that eight artillery brigades have been placed in wartime mode. Kim Yo-jong warned of a "horrible disaster" if drones are spotted again. South Korea's defense ministry responded by warning that any harm caused by the North will result in the regime's end. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, October 14
Ruling LDP most popular in upcoming general election: poll. A Kyodo News survey shows that Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leads with 26.4% support ahead of the October 27 general election. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party follows with 12.4%. LDP faces backlash over a political funds scandal, with 65.2% of respondents considering the scandal in their voting decisions. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Cabinet approval rating stands at 42%. Many voters remain undecided, with 33.2% unsure of their vote. Kyodo News, October 13
Go defends Duterte's war on illegal drugs. Senator Bong Go defended the Duterte administration's anti-drug campaign, calling for an impartial Senate inquiry into allegations of human rights violations. Go dismissed claims that Duterte intended to replicate the "Davao model" nationwide, which allegedly rewarded officers for killing drug suspects. He emphasized Duterte’s commitment to the rule of law and rejected accusations made by former police officials as diversionary tactics. Go stressed the importance of a fair investigation while protecting Duterte's legacy. Bernadette E. Tamayo and Francisco Tuyay, The Manila Times, October 14
Indonesia's Prabowo asks Sri Mulyani to remain as finance minister. Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto has asked Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the current finance minister, to retain her position in his incoming government, focusing on managing state finances. Sri Mulyani, known for her fiscal discipline and international reputation, has not yet confirmed her acceptance. Prabowo's cabinet selection process includes other key figures from the outgoing administration, signaling continuity in governance amid market concerns over Prabowo's fiscal policies. Stefanno Sulaiman and Ananda Teresia, Reuters, October 14
House to finally debate amnesty for lese majeste cases. The Thai parliament is set to debate a controversial proposal to grant amnesty for lese majeste offenders on October 17, after three delays. The debate centers on whether Section 112 of the Criminal Code, which criminalizes insults against the monarchy, should be included in amnesty bills. Coalition parties are divided on the issue, with some advocating conditional amnesty for unintentional violations. Critics warn of the legal and political challenges such amnesty might create. Bangkok Post, October 4
Tajikistan signs first stage of $100 million contract with OPEC fund for Rogun HPP. Tajikistan has signed a $100 million contract with the OPEC Fund to finance the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP). The agreement, finalized in Vienna on October 10, is part of a four-stage funding plan aimed at boosting Tajikistan's energy production for both domestic and regional markets. The Rogun HPP, expected to cost $6.4 billion, currently operates at 10-15% capacity, with projected future income to support further development. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, October 14
Chinese pharmaceutical firms expand to Africa under ‘health silk road’. Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical is set to complete the first phase of its facility in Ivory Coast by year-end, producing antimalarial drugs and antibiotics. Funded with €50 million from the International Finance Corporation, the plant will eventually produce 5 billion tablets annually, creating nearly 1,000 jobs. This expansion is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with a focus on Africa’s health sector amid high demand due to malaria prevalence. Jevans Nyabiage, South China Morning Post, October 14
N Korea to blow up cross-border roads with South amid drone dispute, Seoul says. North Korea is preparing to destroy roads crossing the border with South Korea following accusations that Seoul sent drones to drop anti-North leaflets over Pyongyang. South Korean military reported camouflaged North Korean troops working on the roads. North Korea has also stationed artillery units at the border, warning of potential retaliation. Tensions have escalated, with Kim Yo Jong blaming both South Korea and the U.S. for the drone incident. Hyunsu Yim and Jack Kim, Reuters, October 14
Yoon, ruling party chief to meet one-on-one next week. President Yoon Suk Yeol and ruling People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon are set to meet early next week. The meeting will likely address allegations involving first lady Kim Keon Hee, including a stock manipulation scheme and political interference. Han has called for a presidential office reshuffle and a thorough investigation into the allegations. Tensions have emerged between Yoon and Han, once close allies, over differing approaches to handling sensitive issues. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, October 14
Ishiba: punished lawmakers may be given posts after election. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated he may appoint LDP lawmakers implicated in a political funds scandal to government or party posts if they are re-elected in the October 27 Lower House election. Despite excluding 12 of them from the party ticket, Ishiba hinted at endorsing them post-election if they win voter support. He aims to secure a majority with the junior coalition partner, Komeito, and remains cautious on resigning if this goal isn't achieved. Kyohei Matsuda, Junichiro Ishii, and Kohei Morioka, The Asahi Shimbun, October 14
TNLA defeats final Myanmar junta base in Hsipaw township. The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has captured the last Myanmar junta base near Hsipaw Township in northern Shan State. After two months of siege, over 100 regime troops and their families surrendered. The town lies on the strategic Mandalay-Lashio-Muse road, a key trade route with China. Despite Chinese pressure to halt hostilities, the TNLA and allied forces have taken 25 towns since resuming operations in June, intensifying the fight against the junta. The Irrawaddy, October 14
The ripple effects of EU deforestation laws in Southeast Asia. The European Union’s Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (EUDR) is impacting Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s largest palm oil producers. While the regulation aims to reduce deforestation, it challenges these countries' trade and smallholder farmers, who struggle with meeting traceability requirements. The EUDR’s delay to 2025/2026 has sparked mixed reactions, with environmental groups criticizing it and industry leaders welcoming the postponement for more preparation time. Mohd. Yunus, Lowy Institute, October 15
The iPhone, Chinese Customs Data, and China’s Balance of Payments Puzzle.
China faces a $300 billion discrepancy between its customs and balance of payments data, with the iPhone being a significant factor. While iPhones are mostly assembled in China, a large portion of the profits are attributed to Apple's overseas subsidiaries, notably in Ireland and the U.S., creating gaps in reported trade balances. Changes in China's accounting methods for "factory-less" manufacturing in free trade zones have further complicated the issue.
Brad W. Setser, Council on Foreign Relations, October 14
Would Trump abandon Taiwan? A potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency raises concerns over his unpredictable foreign policy, including towards Taiwan. Trump's historical skepticism of alliances and insistence that allies pay for U.S. protection could increase fears of abandonment in Taipei. While his administration rhetorically supported Taiwan, his transactional approach to international relations might lead to reduced security commitments, creating uncertainty for Taiwan amidst rising tensions with China. David Sacks, East Asia Forum, October 14
World Leaders Vigorously Compete for ASEAN Partnerships. At the recent ASEAN summit in Laos, global powers including India, Japan, South Korea, and China sought to deepen ties with Southeast Asian nations. The region is seen as crucial both economically and strategically, with leaders focusing on trade, security, and regional stability. India's Prime Minister Modi highlighted ancient ties and modern security interests, while China's Premier Li Qiang promoted the Belt and Road Initiative. Tensions over the South China Sea and power competition in the Indo-Pacific were central themes. Duncan Bartlett, The Diplomat, October 14
Behind the Scenes of US Nuclear Diplomacy With India. Newly declassified materials reveal the complex diplomatic efforts by the U.S. following India's 1998 nuclear tests. Led by Strobe Talbott, these discussions sought to curb nuclear proliferation while improving U.S.-India relations. Despite India's resistance to non-proliferation measures and Pakistan's subsequent tests, dialogue eventually helped reset the bilateral relationship. Key moments included Jaswant Singh’s diplomatic visits and U.S. attempts to balance sanctions with strategic engagement. Stephan Kieninger, The Diplomat, October 12
Ishiba’s New Security Proposals: A Bridge Too Far for ASEAN? Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s call for an "Asian NATO" and introducing nuclear-sharing arrangements faces resistance in Southeast Asia. ASEAN nations are wary of formalizing military alliances that target China, a key trade partner. These proposals clash with ASEAN’s nuclear-free principles and lack consensus on regional threats. While Ishiba seeks to strengthen Japan’s defense posture, the initiative is seen as unlikely to gain widespread ASEAN support. Tang Siew Mun, Fulcrum, October 14