Asia Daily: October 10, 2024
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China cannot represent Taiwan and should work with Taipei on global challenges, Lai says. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te reiterated that China has no right to represent Taiwan but expressed willingness to cooperate on issues like climate change and regional security. Lai's speech, marking Taiwan's National Day, emphasized Taiwan's sovereignty while offering dialogue. China condemned Lai's remarks, accusing him of provoking tensions. The U.S. backed Taiwan, warning China against using the speech as a pretext for military action. Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, October 10
China’s Mexico investment may dwarf official figures, with estimated US$13 billion in play. A report by the Rhodium Group suggests that Chinese investment in Mexico is significantly underreported, estimating it at around $13 billion, six times higher than official figures. Most investments are in manufacturing sectors like automobiles, benefiting from Mexico's proximity to the U.S. amid tariffs. Rhodium's broader tracking methods reveal that Chinese investments are often channeled through third countries, complicating accurate reporting. Ralph Jennings, South China Morning Post, October 10.
Former China deputy central bank head gets suspended death sentence for taking bribes. Fan Yifei, former deputy governor of China’s central bank, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve for accepting bribes worth over 386 million yuan ($54.55 million). Following the reprieve, his sentence will be commuted to life imprisonment without parole. Fan, the highest-ranking central bank official targeted in President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign, was expelled from the Communist Party in 2023 and arrested in 2022. Kevin Yao, Reuters, October 10
Kazakhstan prepares to introduce digital currency. Kazakhstan is set to launch the digital tenge, an electronic version of its national currency, following a presentation at the Central Asia Fintech Summit. The digital currency will be integrated into existing banking apps and used for payments, transfers, and smart contracts. The full rollout, including connecting all banks, is expected by 2025. The digital tenge aims to improve financial access, especially in rural areas, and enhance transparency in transactions. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, October 10
Japan PM Ishiba, China's Li agree to seek mutually beneficial ties. In their first meeting in Laos, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese Premier Li Qiang reaffirmed their commitment to fostering mutually beneficial relations amid ongoing tensions. Ishiba raised concerns over China's airspace breach in August and the fatal stabbing of a Japanese schoolboy in Shenzhen. Both leaders agreed to instruct officials to work on improving bilateral ties, while also addressing issues related to Taiwan, territorial disputes, and economic cooperation. Kyodo News, October 10
Vietnamese PM meets with Canadian counterpart in Vientiane. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the Vietnam-Canada comprehensive partnership during their meeting at the ASEAN Summits in Laos. Discussions focused on boosting economic, trade, and defense cooperation, including support for Vietnam's UN peacekeeping efforts. The leaders agreed on enhancing collaborations in labor training, climate change response, and food security while continuing joint efforts in global and regional multilateral forums. Vietnam News, October 10
S. Korea, Laos agree to forge comprehensive strategic partnership next year. During the ASEAN summit, President Yoon Suk Yeol and Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith agreed to elevate bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2024, marking the 30th anniversary of restored diplomatic relations. The two leaders also signed agreements on climate cooperation and carbon emission reductions, alongside renewing an economic development cooperation fund agreement. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News, October 10
ASEAN-China Summit: Laos leads dialogue on cooperation amid South China Sea tensions. Laos hosted the 27th ASEAN-China Summit, emphasizing stronger economic ties and addressing rising tensions in the South China Sea. The summit saw the announcement of an upgrade to the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) and five joint statements on issues like online fraud and agricultural development. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. urged faster negotiations on the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct for the South China Sea to ensure regional stability. Namfon Chanthavong, The Laotian Times, October 10
China moves to elevate and protect its private sector with new draft law. Beijing unveiled a draft law aimed at promoting the private sector, addressing challenges like weak business sentiment and regulatory uncertainty. The law proposes measures to safeguard private property, foster fair market competition, and encourage innovation. It also seeks to ensure fair treatment in legal disputes and protect business assets. The draft comes as private investment lags amid China's economic slowdown, with public opinion invited until November 8. Mia Nulimaimaiti and Frank Chen, South China Morning Post, October 10
China tells PH to stop 'intruding' on Scarborough Shoal. The China Coast Guard (CCG) urged the Philippines to cease activities near Scarborough Shoal, claiming the area as Chinese territory. Despite Chinese efforts, Filipino ships successfully resupplied vessels in the contested waters. Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada called for stronger Philippine patrols in the West Philippine Sea, condemning China’s actions as violations of international law. Both nations continue to claim sovereignty over the region, despite a UN tribunal ruling against China’s claims. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, October 10
Thailand offers to host new Myanmar talks. Thailand has proposed hosting informal consultations in December to address Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, with support from Laos and Malaysia. ASEAN leaders, meeting in Laos, urged all parties to de-escalate violence and called for inclusive dialogue. Progress on ASEAN's "five-point consensus" peace plan has stalled, with Myanmar's junta rejecting negotiations with opposition groups. Despite ongoing conflict, ASEAN remains committed to engaging with Myanmar. Poramet Tangsathaporn, Bangkok Post, October 10
Indonesia, Timor-Leste sign MoU on sustainable development. Indonesia and Timor-Leste have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to enhance cooperation in strategic planning and investment for sustainable development. The agreement covers sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, tourism, and climate change, with a focus on building human resource capacity through internships and training programs. Timor-Leste expressed hope that the partnership would strengthen its development efforts, particularly in infrastructure, health, and education. ANTARA News, October 10
ASEAN urges end to Myanmar violence but struggles for solutions. ASEAN leaders, during the summit in Laos, pressed Myanmar's junta and opposition groups to take decisive steps to halt the ongoing civil war. Despite previous agreements, the violence persists, highlighting ASEAN’s limited progress in resolving the crisis. Leaders reiterated the importance of the five-point consensus for peace, though enforcement remains unclear. Informal talks led by Thailand are planned for December, while U.S. and Chinese leaders also engaged in discussions on the issue. The Irrawaddy, October 10
Kyrgyz court finds four journalists guilty of inciting unrest. A Kyrgyz court sentenced two journalists, Makhabat Tazhibek kyzy and Azamat Ishenbekov, to six and five years in prison respectively, while two others received probation, for allegedly inciting unrest through their reporting. The verdict followed the January arrest of 11 journalists, a move that drew international criticism. Media rights group Reporters Without Borders condemned the ruling, calling it a threat to press freedom in Kyrgyzstan. Olzhas Auyezov, Reuters, October 10
China defiant over South China Sea skirmishes in ASEAN talks and blames meddling by foreign forces. At an ASEAN summit, Southeast Asian leaders pressured China to respect international law after recent clashes in the South China Sea involving the Philippines and Vietnam. Chinese Premier Li Qiang blamed "external forces," likely referring to the U.S., for escalating tensions. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. criticized China's actions as violations of international law, while Li defended China’s sovereignty. ASEAN nations emphasized concluding a code of conduct to manage disputes in the region. Eileen Ng and Jintamas Saksornchai, AP News, October 10
Korea, Japan, China's trilateral cooperative mechanism restored at ASEAN Plus Three. The trilateral cooperation among Korea, Japan, China, and ASEAN has been revitalized, with all three East Asian countries establishing comprehensive strategic partnerships (CSP) with ASEAN. During the 27th ASEAN Plus Three (APT) meeting, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol proposed initiatives to strengthen regional financial safety nets, food security, and promote electric vehicle hubs. The trilateral mechanism, which stalled for over four years, is expected to advance connectivity and cooperation in East Asia. Anna J. Park, The Korea Times, October 10
Vietnamese, Malaysian PMs meet on sidelines of ASEAN Summits. Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh ChÃnh and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim discussed enhancing bilateral cooperation in Vientiane during the ASEAN Summits. They agreed to boost high-level visits, strengthen collaboration in security, education, and trade, and work on new areas like green and digital economies. Both leaders also focused on maritime affairs and defense, with Malaysia committing to help lift Vietnam's EU "yellow card" on fishing. They pledged to deepen their strategic partnership. Vietnam News, October 10
India's never-ending quest for global status. India's ambition for global influence, especially in seeking a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, shows a broader goal of global recognition. Despite achievements, including rising to third place in the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index, India faces an uphill battle in shaping global and regional events. Its foreign policy balances the desire for recognition as a "voice of the Global South" with its non-Western but non-aggressive worldview, though questions remain about how it will use increased power. Chietigj Bajpaee, Lowy Institute, October 10
NATO’s Indo-Pacific Aspirations. NATO is expanding its engagement with the Indo-Pacific region due to shared security concerns, such as the rise of China and the strategic importance of the area. Partnerships with countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are deepening through joint exercises and increased dialogue. However, challenges exist as NATO navigates balancing its traditional Euro-Atlantic focus with growing responsibilities in the Indo-Pacific. David Sacks, Council on Foreign Relations, October 6
Don’t fall for the fake election in Myanmar. Myanmar's planned election is widely seen as a sham, intended to legitimize the military junta's control rather than restore democratic governance. Since the 2021 coup, the junta has suppressed opposition, including the imprisonment of key figures like Aung San Suu Kyi and the decimation of the National League for Democracy. Ethnic conflicts continue, with many regions outside of government control, making free and fair elections impossible. Observers argue that any election held under these conditions would further entrench military rule and deepen instability. Hunter Marston, East Asia Forum, October 11
The United States must axe Vietnam's 'Non-Market Economy' status. Vietnam's push for recognition as a market economy from the United States is critical for its trade relations and geopolitical standing. Despite economic reforms, including curbing state intervention and promoting foreign investments, the U.S. Department of Commerce has maintained Vietnam's "non-market economy" (NME) status, citing continued state influence in key sectors. This decision, influenced by domestic industries concerned about competition, hampers Vietnam's ability to avoid high anti-dumping tariffs. As Vietnam grows more central to U.S. strategies in Southeast Asia, lifting the NME status is seen as vital to strengthening the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and countering China's influence in the region. Harry Horsfield, East Asia Forum, October 10
Breaking the Barrier: Four Years of PRC Military Activity Around Taiwan. Over the past four years, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has escalated its military activity around Taiwan, marked by frequent incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). The PRC’s actions have intensified in phases, often linked to political events such as high-profile visits to Taiwan. Beijing's goal is to normalize its military presence and exert political pressure on Taipei, further eroding cross-Strait stability. Thomas J. Shattuck & Benjamin Lewis, Foreign Policy Research Institute, October 9.
North Korea: The Overlooked Challenge for the Next US President. As North Korea advances its nuclear, missile, and cyber capabilities, and strengthens its ties with Russia, it presents a growing challenge for U.S. leadership. Despite these developments, North Korea has been sidelined in the 2024 U.S. presidential race. Addressing the issue requires a balanced approach of deterrence, diplomacy, and cooperation with South Korea, Japan, and China. The next U.S. administration must prioritize this multifaceted issue to prevent further destabilization in the Indo-Pacific. Darcie Draudt-Véjares, The Diplomat, October 10
More Votes, Fewer Rights: Jammu and Kashmir Assembly to Reconvene for 1st Time Since Reorganization. Jammu and Kashmir's first assembly elections since its 2019 reorganization saw the National Conference win a decisive majority, ousting the Peoples' Democratic Party and limiting the Bharatiya Janata Party’s influence. However, the region's reduced autonomy and the dominance of the centrally-appointed lieutenant governor raise concerns about the elected government's limited powers, with many voters viewing the elections as a protest against the Modi government's clampdown on rights. Tarushi Aswani, The Diplomat, October 11
Sri Lanka’s New President Is More a Pragmatist Than a Marxist. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Sri Lanka's new president, rose to power amidst the country’s worst economic crisis. Despite his Marxist political background, he has taken a pragmatic approach, continuing with the IMF program and debt restructuring efforts initiated by his predecessor. While Dissanayake campaigned on anti-corruption and economic reforms, his focus on maintaining economic stability through international agreements reflects a politically cautious stance as he seeks to navigate Sri Lanka's recovery. Umesh Moramudali, The Diplomat, October 10
The DEFA Treads a Fine Line to be Successful in Driving Digital Services Trade in ASEAN. The ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) aims to boost ASEAN's digital economy to a projected $2 trillion by 2030, with digital trade as a core component. Challenges include both "at the border" issues like data transfer restrictions and "beyond the border" factors such as digital skills and infrastructure. Success will depend on balancing these trade frictions with enabling policies, particularly as Singapore leads the region's digital trade. Kristina Fong Siew Leng, Fulcrum, October 10
Southeast Asia and Emissions Reduction: Two Paths to Consider. Southeast Asia faces a dual challenge of reducing carbon emissions while sustaining economic growth. Carbon taxes and the removal of fossil fuel subsidies are two key strategies. While carbon taxes can directly reduce emissions by incentivizing lower consumption, removing fossil fuel subsidies promotes competitiveness for renewable energy. However, both policies face public and political hurdles, with subsidies being particularly sensitive. Policymakers must navigate these challenges to drive meaningful climate action. Melinda Martinus, Fulcrum, October 9