Asia Daily: October 1, 2024
PLA stages National Day drill in South China Sea in wake of 5-nation exercise. China’s People’s Liberation Army conducted a naval drill from September 30 to October 1 in the South China Sea following a five-nation exercise involving the US, Philippines, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand. The PLA drill, marking China’s National Day, aimed to enhance joint operations and demonstrate its resolve to safeguard regional stability. China has criticized the US for stirring tensions in the region, particularly as territorial disputes over the South China Sea continue with countries like the Philippines and Vietnam. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, October 1
S. Korea to attend NATO defense ministers' meeting for 1st time. South Korea, along with Japan, Australia, and New Zealand (IP4), will join a NATO defense ministers' meeting for the first time on October 16-17 in Brussels. The inclusion marks a deepening collaboration between NATO and Indo-Pacific partners, with a focus on shared challenges, particularly as Russia receives support from China, North Korea, and Iran in its war in Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized enhancing ties with IP4 members during the meeting. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, October 1
Ishiba becomes prime minister, takes heat over election call. Shigeru Ishiba was elected Japan’s 102nd prime minister, replacing Fumio Kishida. Immediately after his appointment, Ishiba faced criticism from opposition leaders for announcing plans to dissolve the Diet and call a snap election on Oct. 27. Despite concerns, Ishiba’s new Cabinet, which includes close allies and defense experts, is set to advance his security agenda. The number of female ministers has dropped to two, and key defense positions were filled by veterans, reinforcing Ishiba’s national security focus. The Asahi Shimbun, October 1
Japan’s new premier vows to push strong defense under Japan-U.S. alliance and boost economy. Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who replaced Fumio Kishida, committed to strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance, advocating for a more balanced relationship. He emphasized defense, proposing a NATO-like alliance in the region. Ishiba also pledged to continue economic policies targeting inflation and population challenges. His new Cabinet includes defense experts and minimal representation of women, with only two female ministers. Ishiba plans to call a snap election on October 27 to secure public support for his administration. Mari Yamaguchi, AP News, October 1
Vietnam’s top leader concludes successful Mongolia visit, heads to Ireland
General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam and State President To Lam concluded a two-day state visit to Mongolia and departed for Ireland. During his stay, he held talks with Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh and other officials, emphasizing the strong Vietnam-Mongolia friendship. Both sides committed to expanding cooperation across various sectors, including national defense, trade, and cultural exchange. Lam will now embark on a state visit to Ireland. Vietnam News, October 1
China, U.S. to hold talks on economic and trade issues, Xinhua reports. China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and U.S. officials are set to discuss trade and economic relations, including tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs). The talks follow concerns raised by China over U.S. tariffs, investment restrictions, and sanctions related to Russia. The Biden administration's recent tariffs, particularly on EV batteries and solar panels, aim to protect strategic U.S. industries. China has condemned the measures but remains open to negotiations. Ryan Woo, Reuters, October 1
South Korea unveils its most powerful missile, which could reach North Korea’s underground bunkers. South Korea showcased its Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile during a massive Armed Forces Day event, signaling its military strength against North Korea. Capable of penetrating underground bunkers, the missile was displayed alongside 340 other weapons systems. President Yoon Suk Yeol warned North Korea of severe consequences if it used nuclear weapons, reinforcing the importance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance. The event comes as North Korea heightens regional tensions with missile tests and uranium enrichment. Hyung-jin Kim, AP News, October 1
Don’t stall amnesty bill, says People’s Party. The People's Party has urged the coalition government to reconsider delaying the review of an amnesty bill addressing past political conflicts. The postponement, driven by concerns over lese-majeste offenders, has frustrated party leaders who argue that it impedes reconciliation and legal remedies for prosecuted individuals. Divisions within the coalition regarding the bill’s scope remain unresolved, stalling progress on the matter. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, October 1
China’s commerce minister to discuss electric vehicle tariffs with U.S. counterpart. Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao will hold talks with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to address tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) and other economic issues. The U.S. imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs as part of broader measures against Chinese trade practices. The talks come as the European Union is also considering imposing tariffs on Chinese EVs over state subsidy concerns. China has rejected accusations of market manipulation and seeks dialogue to resolve trade tensions. Hayley Wong, South China Morning Post, October 1
Alice Guo arraignment reset anew. The arraignment of Alice Guo, facing graft charges in Valenzuela City, has been postponed for a second time, now scheduled for October 28. Guo, linked to a corruption case, was initially set to appear earlier this year, but delays have pushed back her legal proceedings. The Regional Trial Court Branch 282 cited undisclosed reasons for the delay. With growing public interest in the case, legal experts expect future hearings to focus on the evidence presented against her. Arlie O. Calalo and Francisco Tuyay, The Manila Times, October 1
Cambodia says it would welcome U.S. Navy at port expanded with China's help. Cambodia stated it would allow the U.S. Navy to visit its Ream Naval Base, despite U.S. concerns that the base could become a Chinese outpost. Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol emphasized the base's expansion, funded by China, is for national defense and open to all navies for humanitarian missions or joint exercises. Tensions between the U.S. and Cambodia remain, with Washington concerned about China's growing influence and Cambodia's political landscape. Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, October 1
Myanmar’s military government launches a census seen as a way to gather information about opponents. Myanmar’s military government began a nationwide census, claiming it will compile voter lists for a planned 2025 election. Critics, including the National Unity Government, warn the census is a tool to surveil military opponents. With over 42,000 census workers, the survey includes sensitive questions on family backgrounds, raising concerns for those involved in resistance movements. Ethnic militias have threatened action against participants, and the U.N. has withdrawn support for the census. Grant Peck, AP News, October 1
Kazakhstan to build airports in Katon-Karagay and Zaysan resort areas. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport plans to build new airports in the scenic Katon-Karagay National Park and the Zaysan area to boost tourism. The Katon-Karagay airport will be near Soldatovo village, while the Zaysan airport will use a former military airfield. Both airports will feature 2,200-meter runways for short-haul flights and potentially expand to accommodate larger aircraft like Airbus A320s. Construction is set to begin in 2025. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, October 1
Civilian deaths mount as Myanmar junta intensifies Shan counteroffensive after ‘peace’ offer. Myanmar's military has ramped up airstrikes in northern Shan State, killing six civilians and injuring 77 in Lashio since August. Despite a recent peace offer from the junta, bombings have escalated, devastating homes, schools, and markets. This surge follows the junta's vow to retake territory lost to ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces. Ethnic militias and resistance groups have condemned the bombardments, warning of further civilian harm. Brian Wei, The Irrawaddy, October 1
Cambodia charges investigative journalist Mech Dara, who exposed trafficking and scam compounds, with incitement. Mech Dara, an investigative reporter known for exposing human trafficking in Cambodia, was charged with "inciting social unrest" for allegedly posting false content about quarrying on a sacred mountain. He faces up to two years in prison. His arrest has drawn concern from human rights groups and the U.S. government. Dara was recognized by the U.S. in 2023 for his investigative work. Poppy Mcpherson, Reuters, October 1
China on track to break 2023 ‘tigers’ record as top anti-corruption watchdog nets 44. China's top anti-corruption body, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), has placed 44 senior officials, or “tigers,” under investigation so far in 2023, nearly surpassing last year's total. Among them is Li Gang, a CCDI disciplinary chief, marking the latest in a string of high-profile detentions. President Xi Jinping's campaign to root out corruption has intensified, targeting officials in various sectors, including telecoms and customs. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, October 1
N. Korean leader reaffirms stronger ties with China in message to Xi. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un emphasized strengthening ties with China in a congratulatory message to President Xi Jinping on China's 75th founding anniversary. Kim expressed confidence that DPRK-China relations would continue to grow in line with the aspirations of their peoples. He praised China's achievements in building socialism over the past 75 years and reaffirmed North Korea's commitment to maintaining the traditional friendship between the two nations. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, October 1
Indonesian, Saudi Arabian deputy finance ministers meet in Uzbekistan. Indonesia’s Deputy Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara met with Saudi Arabia's Abdulmuhsen S. Alkhalaf during the 2024 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) meeting in Uzbekistan. They discussed Indonesia's significant role in the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), the management of Indonesia's Hajj funds, and Indonesia’s upcoming government transition. Nazara sought Saudi Arabia’s support for an Indonesian vice-presidential candidate for the IsDB and praised their cooperation in infrastructure development in Asia. Antara News, October 1
Growth, community, and trust the 'building blocks' as Singapore refreshes Smart Nation strategies: PM Wong. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong emphasized these three elements as Singapore enters the next phase of its Smart Nation 2.0 journey. Launched a decade ago, the initiative has already made significant progress in integrating digital advancements into daily life. Wong noted that technology's rapid evolution presents both opportunities and challenges. Key investments include S$120 million for AI research, while new measures aim to mitigate risks like online harm, strengthen trust, and encourage communal collaboration. Matthew Mohan, Channel News Asia, October 1
Growing asymmetry: Mapping the import dependencies in EU and US trade with China. The EU and US have become more dependent on imports from China over the past two decades, especially in electronics and machinery. China, meanwhile, has diversified its suppliers and reduced its reliance on these regions. Both the EU and US face challenges in de-risking their trade relationships, as shifting supply chains will be costly and complex, particularly in critical areas like battery production. China's strategic push for self-sufficiency exacerbates these asymmetries. François Chimits, MERICS, October 1
Kamala Harris and the Pacific Islands. Kamala Harris’ presidential aspirations raise expectations in the Pacific Islands, particularly regarding climate action and regional security. Pacific nations hope Harris will strengthen commitments made under the Pacific Partnership Strategy, especially for climate resilience and funding. Her administration will need to balance economic and geopolitical interests, with China’s growing influence in the region. Although Harris promises action on climate and security, challenges remain, including addressing longstanding issues like US nuclear testing and fostering deeper development partnerships. Meg Keen, Lowy Institute, October 2
Power in Asia: Pivots, paper tigers and regional poles. The Asia Power Index reveals that while the United States maintains strong influence in the Indo-Pacific, China is still gaining ground economically. The data shows that U.S. dominance persists, especially in military and diplomatic arenas, but regional allies like Japan are becoming key influencers. Additionally, middle powers like Indonesia and the Philippines are asserting more diplomatic roles, challenging the idea of a region divided into rigid blocs. China's demographic and economic challenges could affect its future influence. Stacie E. Goddard, Lowy Institute, October 1
American Public Opinion and the US Election’s Implications for South Korea. The 2024 KEI/YouGov poll highlights a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with potential implications for US-South Korea relations. Both candidates' supporters value the US-South Korea alliance, though Harris supporters prioritize broader cooperation, including on global issues like climate change and human rights, more than Trump supporters. Bipartisan consensus exists on maintaining US military presence in Korea and concerns over North Korea's nuclear program. Je Heon (James) Kim, Scott Snyder, Andy Hong, Jennifer Ahn, Korea Economic Institute of America, October 1
Why Is China Investing In a $1.7 Billion Canal in Cambodia? China’s investment in Cambodia's Funan Techo Canal is part of its strategic influence in the region, aimed at boosting Cambodia's trade and potentially diverting traffic from Vietnam. This canal, co-funded by China, connects to deep-water ports also built by China, reflecting the deep ties between the two nations. Critics express concerns over potential military uses and environmental impacts on the Mekong Delta. The project strengthens China’s role in shaping Southeast Asian trade dynamics. Zongyuan Zoe Liu and Nadia Clark, Council on Foreign Relations, September 30
Terms and Conditions Apply: Regulating Chinese EV Manufacturing Investment in Europe. European policymakers are debating how to regulate Chinese investment in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. While Chinese investments could benefit Europe through job creation and technology transfer, concerns arise over market distortions due to Chinese state subsidies. Europe is exploring tools like the Foreign Subsidies Regulation to ensure fair competition and local benefits while balancing economic and security risks in this critical sector. Gregor Sebastian and Camille Boullenois, Rhodium Group, October 1
Sri Lanka’s new outsider president in with a chance. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a political outsider, won the Sri Lankan presidency, riding on a wave of anti-establishment sentiment following the economic collapse and mass protests that ousted the Rajapaksa government. Dissanayake, leader of the National People's Power (NPP) alliance, has promised to clean up corruption and establish a new political culture. His main challenge is to stabilize Sri Lanka's economy, particularly in terms of the IMF's bailout program. His election raises questions about how he will handle ethnic tensions and international relations, especially between India and China. Shakthi De Silva, East Asia Forum, October 2
Japan and Laos look to lock in a strategic partnership. Japan and Laos are improving their diplomatic relationship, aiming to elevate it to a comprehensive strategic partnership by 2025, the 70th anniversary of their diplomatic ties. This partnership will strengthen cooperation in security, economic, and socio-cultural areas. Japan has pledged support for Laos' ASEAN chairmanship in 2024, helping advance regional connectivity and resilience. While China's influence in Laos remains strong, Japan's engagement offers an alternative, allowing Laos to diversify its strategic partnerships and maintain autonomy amid great power competition. Kei Koga, East Asia Forum, October 1
Energy Technologies and Decarbonization in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia faces the dual challenge of meeting rising energy demands while pursuing decarbonization goals. Countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are exploring emerging technologies such as small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) and carbon capture to transition away from coal. However, they require external financial and technical support to scale these solutions. The United States and other international partners play a crucial role in assisting the region's clean energy transition efforts. Lauren Mai and Andreyka Natalegawa, CSIS, September 30
Rethinking Human Rights: How the United States Can Foster a Constructive Dialogue with Vietnam. The U.S. and Vietnam face challenges in fostering a productive dialogue on human rights, given their differing political systems and historical distrust. Current bilateral discussions have been ineffective, and U.S. criticism often raises Vietnam’s concerns about external interference. To improve relations, the U.S. must approach Vietnam’s institutional constraints and engage through multilateral frameworks while providing technical assistance to enhance Vietnam’s legal framework, focusing on areas like LGBTQ+ and economic rights. Giang Pham, CSIS, September 30
The 75-Year Quest to Make China Great Again. Over the past 75 years, China has transformed from a war-torn nation to a global power. Xi Jinping’s vision for China's "great rejuvenation" follows earlier leaders like Mao and Deng, with a focus on strengthening the Communist Party, advancing economic growth, and enhancing military power. Xi's policies emphasize China's centrality on the world stage, blending market-based practices with state control. This strategy is a strong continuity with China’s founding political and economic principles. Elizabeth Economy, The Diplomat, October 1
Over 3 Decades Into Independence, Property Protections in Kazakhstan Remain Weak. Kazakhstan’s property market suffers from weak buyer protections, as shown by ongoing real estate scandals. Projects are frequently stalled, with buyers often losing money to unscrupulous developers and state-linked companies. Efforts to strengthen laws in 2016 have failed to prevent fraud, and buyers face long delays and legal battles. Despite the country’s economic growth, housing developments are mired in corruption and mismanagement, with authorities accused of negligence or collusion. Rustem Amangeldi, The Diplomat, October 1
Japan’s new leader has barely the concept of a plan. Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's newly appointed prime minister, faces criticism for lacking a coherent vision for the country's future. While his ascent represents a shift from the dominance of Shinzo Abe's faction, questions remain about his ability to guide Japan through its economic and political challenges. Although his leadership offers a break from past policies, Ishiba's approach remains uncertain, sparking concerns about Japan's direction under his rule. Gearoid Reidy, The Japan Times, October 1
Lessons from Japan’s fight against floods as the climate changes. As climate change intensifies, Japan's experience with the Ishikawa floods highlights the urgent need for better flood management strategies. Rising global temperatures contribute to severe downpours, overwhelming traditional infrastructure. Japan must integrate advanced technology, improve community preparedness, and develop adaptive infrastructure to mitigate future disasters. Learning from recent events, a focus on resilient systems is essential for protecting vulnerable areas against increasing climate risks. Robert Bociaga, The Japan Times, September 30
Is Interfaith Environmentalism Possible in Indonesia? Interfaith environmentalism in Indonesia is gaining attention, especially after Pope Francis' recent visit, which emphasized cooperation across religious lines for environmental causes. While Muslim organizations like Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama lead Green Islam movements, broader interfaith collaboration remains limited. Surveys reveal low engagement across religious communities on environmental issues, but public support for religious leaders addressing climate challenges suggests potential for growth. Pope Francis’ visit may spark further interfaith initiatives in the country. Iim Halimatusa’diyah and Ronald Adam, Fulcrum, October 1
China's Double Game in Myanmar. China is playing both sides in Myanmar’s civil conflict, supporting both the military junta and rebel groups to safeguard its economic and strategic interests. While China provides military support to the junta, it also assists insurgent groups in northern Myanmar, aiming to maintain regional stability and protect its border security. This strategy risks prolonging Myanmar's conflict, but China’s focus remains on ensuring its access to critical infrastructure, such as the deep-water port in Rakhine state. Marcus Andreopoulos, The Geopolitics, October 1