Asia Daily: November 9, 2023
News
Top US officials Blinken, Austin to visit India for Indo-Pacific talks. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are set to discuss security challenges in the Indo-Pacific and concerns over China with Indian officials, rather than focusing on the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. The talks are part of the "2+2 Dialogue" aimed at bolstering defense cooperation and are expected to cover joint defense equipment development, including U.S. supply and manufacturing for Indian fighter jets and drones. This engagement precedes a possible meeting between President Biden and China's President Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC summit. Krishn Kaushik, David Brunnstrom and Trevor Hunnicutt, Reuters, November 8
Putin calls for closer Russia-China cooperation on military satellites and prospective weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin has advocated for strengthened Russia-China ties in military technology areas such as satellites and prospective weapons. During a meeting with China's high-ranking military official Gen. Zhang Youxia, Putin emphasized the importance of collaboration in strategic security without forming traditional military alliances. Their cooperation is seen as a stabilizing international factor, responding to NATO's Asia-Pacific outreach. The two nations have previously conducted joint military exercises and supported each other against Western pressures. AP News, November 8
North Korea threatens to respond to anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets with a ‘shower of shells’. North Korea has expressed strong opposition to South Korea's removal of a ban on sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border, deeming such actions as psychological warfare. The North warned it could retaliate with military action, specifically a "shower of shells," against such campaigns. This threat follows heightened tensions and the South Korean Constitutional Court's ruling that the 2020 law against leafletting infringed on free speech. Despite North Korea's history of making outlandish threats, this stance underscores the ongoing diplomatic freeze and growing animosities on the Korean Peninsula. Kim Tong-hyung, The Independent, November 8
As Iran tries to revive Tajikistan ties, Saudis pledge financial support. Iran is making strides to improve relations with Tajikistan, as evidenced by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Dushanbe, which included the signing of 19 cooperation documents across various sectors. This rapprochement comes despite previous tensions, where Iran was viewed negatively by Tajikistan. Concurrently, Saudi Arabia has pledged $100 million to support Tajikistan's Roghun dam project, a move that seems timely given the warming of Iran-Tajikistan relations and may indicate a desire to maintain influence in the region. Additionally, the cooperation between Iran and Tajikistan extended into military technology, with the opening of a facility for Iranian-designed drones in Tajikistan in 2022. Eurasianet, November 8
Kishida-Xi talks eyed around Nov. 16 at APEC meeting in U.S.: source. Plans are underway for a meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese President Xi Jinping around November 16 in San Francisco, alongside the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. Japan's top national security adviser, Takeo Akiba, is set to prepare for the discussions amid ongoing tensions related to the Fukushima nuclear plant's treated water discharge. The anticipated talks would mark the first high-level engagement since their last meeting in Thailand last year. Kyodo News, November 8
Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. to hold talks amid tightening N.K.-Russia military ties. South Korea's Foreign Minister Park Jin and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken are scheduled to discuss concerns over North Korea's expanding military cooperation with Russia. This dialogue follows intelligence that North Korea has supplied Russia with munitions for the Ukraine conflict. Blinken's visit to South Korea reaffirms U.S. commitment to security in the Indo-Pacific despite global tensions. The meetings may also touch on China-related issues ahead of an expected summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders at the APEC forum in San Francisco. Yonhap News Agency, November 9
China urges Estonia not to allow opening of Taiwan office. China has heightened diplomatic pressure on Estonia regarding the opening of a Taiwanese representative office, emphasizing the need to adhere to the 'One China' principle. The Chinese ambassador to Estonia, Guo Xiaomei, hinted at potentially leaving the country if the office opens, showcasing the seriousness with which China views this issue. Estonia maintains its stance, ready to facilitate a non-diplomatic Taiwanese presence in line with EU policy, aiming to foster economic, educational, and cultural ties without contradicting the One China policy. This situation has broader geopolitical implications, revealing the delicate balance Estonia must navigate in international relations amidst territorial claims and political sensitivities, as well as the conflict in Ukraine and global security challenges. Reuters, November 8
Preparations ongoing for Cambodia-Laos-Việt Nam Parliamentary Summit in December. The national assemblies of Cambodia, Laos, and Việt Nam are laying the groundwork for their first Parliamentary Summit in December 2023 in Vientiane, Laos. Discussions are centered around the summit's agenda and associated activities, including sessions on enhancing the national assemblies' roles in fostering cooperation, partnership, and regional prosperity. The summit will focus on socio-economic, defense, and security cooperation, with additional cultural exchanges like a Friendship Bicycle Race. This initiative follows the 2022 Joint Declaration, aiming to strengthen regional ties and monitor cooperative projects within the three countries. Vietnam News, November 8
China V-P Han Zheng calls on President Tharman, PM Lee. During his official visit to Singapore, Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng met with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. They discussed strengthening the comprehensive partnership between Singapore and China, focusing on international cooperation, people, institutions, and bilateral cooperation through the Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation. The visit highlighted the 15th anniversary of the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City and included dialogue on global and regional developments, underscoring China's readiness to engage in open communication with the United States. The Star, November 8
Australia’s lack of independent foreign policy will hurt China ties, own interests in long term: report. A report from China Matters, an Australian think tank, suggests that Australia's close alliance with the United States is threatening the long-term stability of its relationship with China. The report by Yun Jiang points out that national security issues increasingly dominate bilateral concerns, potentially eroding trade and social links. Despite recent improvements and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's visit to China, the perception in China is that Australia is too aligned with the US, which could hinder future relations. Su-Lin Tan, South China Morning Post, November 8
Long Form
With or without foreign investors, China deals will still get done. Despite macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical tensions, China's private equity sector is thriving, capitalizing on opportunities created by the withdrawal of foreign investors. Local private equity groups are leveraging cheap yuan financing and a bearish market sentiment to invest in profitable ventures. This shift is particularly notable in private markets, less scrutinized by international regulators, where Chinese banks are actively financing transactions. The article highlights the resilience and adaptability of China's domestic investment landscape in the face of global economic headwinds. Henny Sender, Nikkei Asia, November 9
Abandonment of 'Likonomics' limits Xi Jinping's options. The shift away from 'Likonomics,' a pro-market policy initiated by the late former Premier Li Keqiang, marks a significant change in China's economic strategy under President Xi Jinping. The delay in convening the key economic policy-setting session reflects the current economic challenges and the intraparty power struggle. This shift from market-oriented reforms to a stronger emphasis on state-owned enterprises and less reliance on market mechanisms indicates a departure from policies that once aimed to reduce government control and foster private enterprise. Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia, November 9
Rare Earths in the South China Sea: Adding Fuel to the Geopolitical Fire. The competition for rare-earth minerals in the South China Sea is intensifying, potentially escalating existing geopolitical tensions. The demand for these minerals, crucial for clean energy technology, is surging globally, particularly in Europe, the United States, and China. Rare-earth elements, including lanthanum, cerium, and neodymium, are essential for various high-tech applications. The race to secure these resources is leading nations to the South China Sea, a region already fraught with territorial disputes. This pursuit not only underscores the strategic importance of rare-earth elements but also risks exacerbating conflicts in a geopolitically sensitive area. By Tobias Burgers and Scott N. Romaniuk, The Diplomat, November 9
Hamas Attack Gives South Korea ‘Wake-Up Call’ on Border Security. The recent Hamas attack on Israel has prompted South Korea to reassess its own border security, particularly in relation to the potential threat from North Korea. South Korean officials are considering enhancing their defense capabilities, including the use of more border-surveillance drones, which would require revising a 2018 inter-Korean agreement establishing no-fly zones near the border. This reassessment comes in the wake of North Korea's advancements in weapons technology and the potential for a surprise attack similar to Hamas's tactics. Timothy W. Martin and Vivian Salama, The Wall Street Journal, November 9
Can ‘Rewilding’ Come to Southeast Asia? The concept of 'rewilding,' which involves allowing nature to repair damaged ecosystems and restore degraded landscapes, is gaining traction in the Northern hemisphere. Countries like the United States are witnessing abandoned agricultural lands naturally reverting to forests, a phenomenon supported by economic growth that doesn't rely on clearing more forests. However, the situation in Southeast Asia presents unique challenges. Despite global progress in reforestation, with China and India leading the way, the focus on single-species plantations raises concerns about biodiversity. Gregory McCann, Asia Sentinel, November 9
Emerging US-China AI Arms Race Undermines Their Leadership in Global Standards. The escalating AI arms race between the US and China is jeopardizing their roles as leaders in global AI standards. The US's recent executive order on AI safety and China's support of the Bletchley Declaration at the global AI Safety Summit show their ambitions in AI governance. However, their heavy investment in military AI integration raises concerns about an arms race and AI's potential risks. The US's Replicator initiative and China's AI development plan underscore their competition to dominate AI technology and set global standards. This focus on military AI, along with limited direct engagement between the two nations, could impede the creation of a unified global AI governance framework, possibly requiring other countries to intervene. Shayan Hassan Jamy, South China Morning Post, November 9