Asia Daily: November 8, 2024
China's latest stimulus falls short of expectations. China's National People's Congress approved a 10 trillion yuan plan to address local government debt, but markets were disappointed, anticipating more substantial measures after Trump's U.S. election win. Economists argue that China's fragile economy, facing property downturns and weak consumer confidence, needs a larger stimulus to achieve its 5% growth target. Trump's return could bring renewed trade tensions, with potential tariffs on Chinese goods. Analysts suggest China may hold back further economic measures until Trump’s policy direction becomes clearer. Samuel Shen and Tom Westbrook, Reuters, November 8
Italian President Mattarella meets Chinese leader Xi in Beijing amid complex ties. President Sergio Mattarella's visit to Beijing focused on strengthening economic and cultural relations, marking 700 years since Marco Polo’s journey to China. Although Italy withdrew from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the leaders signed new agreements on trade and technology. The visit comes amid tensions as Italy, a NATO member, aligns with the West on Ukraine, while China maintains support for Russia through energy purchases and tech exports. AP News, November 8
Ishiba's LDP, smaller DPP debate econ steps, PM eyes minority gov't. Japan’s ruling LDP and opposition DPP began discussions on economic measures as PM Shigeru Ishiba seeks cooperation to manage his minority government. The talks include raising the income tax threshold to boost disposable income. The DPP also advocates reducing gasoline taxes and extending subsidies for energy costs. Despite exploring policy collaboration, both parties are hesitant about forming a formal coalition. Kyodo News, November 8
State president sets off for official visits to Chile, Peru, attendance at APEC Economic Leaders' Week. Vietnam's President Luong Cuong departed for official visits to Chile and Peru, coinciding with his participation in the APEC Economic Leaders' Week in Lima. These trips aim to strengthen bilateral ties, enhance political trust, and deepen cooperation with Latin American nations. The visit also underscores Vietnam’s commitment to regional and global economic integration, focusing on sustainable development and strategic partnerships with APEC economies. Vietnam News, November 8
Kyrgyz authorities unhappy with the dollar. Kyrgyzstan’s Finance Ministry plans to issue digital bonds and explore alternatives to the U.S. dollar in international trade. Cabinet Chief Akylbek Japarov criticized the dollar’s use as a tool for political pressure, citing payment delays affecting trade. He highlighted potential for using cryptocurrencies backed by gold and joining BRICS-led payment systems. The government is also exploring digital currency projects, such as the “digital som,” and setting up a crypto bank to integrate virtual assets into the traditional financial system. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, November 8
S. Korea, U.S. to hold 1st table-top exercise against space threats next year. South Korea and the U.S. will conduct their first table-top exercise focused on countering space-based threats in early 2024, according to South Korea's defense ministry. This annual exercise aims to enhance joint capabilities in space security. The two nations also agreed to accelerate efforts on a shared early warning system to detect North Korean missiles and enhance space situational awareness through the U.S.-led Joint Commercial Operations cell. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, November 8
Malaysia's troubled ex-PM ordered to pay $300,000 to politician over defamatory remarks. A Malaysian court ruled that former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin must pay 1.35 million ringgit ($308,078) to former Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng for defamatory comments made on social media. Muhyiddin was also instructed to retract the statements and refrain from repeating them. This legal setback adds to his ongoing cases involving sedition, corruption, and money laundering charges, which he denies. Muhyiddin plans to appeal the defamation ruling. Danial Azhar, Reuters, November 8
Indonesia's Prabowo lands in Beijing for first state visit. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto arrived in Beijing for his first state visit since taking office, at the invitation of President Xi Jinping. The visit aims to strengthen bilateral ties, with meetings planned with Chinese leaders including Premier Li Qiang. The agenda includes discussions on economic cooperation and enhancing strategic relations. The trip is part of a broader diplomatic tour that will also take Prabowo to the U.S., Peru, and other nations. ANTARA News, November 8.
China, U.S. officials set to discuss climate change amid fears over Donald Trump’s policies. Officials from several U.S. states and China will meet at the COP29 climate summit in Baku to discuss climate cooperation, especially as concerns rise over Trump’s return to the White House. The discussions will focus on methane reduction and subnational climate initiatives, led by states like California. Despite Trump's stance on fossil fuels, experts believe state-level collaboration with China could continue to drive climate progress even if federal support wanes. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, November 8
Thousands rally in Bangladesh capital as major political party demands quick reforms and an election. Tens of thousands of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) supporters marched through Dhaka on Friday, calling for swift reforms and a national election under the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The rally symbolized pressure on the interim administration, which took power after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled amidst protests. BNP’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman, speaking from exile, urged the government to fulfill public expectations and warned of further protests if an election timeline is not announced. Julhas Alam, AP News, November 8
CDP to chair key Lower House committee in a first in 30 years. Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) will lead the Lower House Budget Committee, a position held by the ruling party for three decades. This decision follows the ruling coalition’s loss of its majority in the recent election. The CDP plans to appoint Jun Azumi as chair, allowing opposition members more control over budget deliberations and political inquiries. The agreement also includes committee chair positions for other opposition parties, as part of a compromise with the LDP ahead of a special Diet session. The Asahi Shimbun, November 8
PM Wong says he has not decided on timing of GE; Electoral Boundaries Review Committee not formed yet. Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong clarified that the timing for the next general election remains undecided, with no plans to convene the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee. He emphasized that the government’s current focus is on managing economic challenges and supporting citizens, dismissing speculation of an early election. Wong stressed that preparations will proceed in due course based on national priorities. Tang See Kit, Channel News Asia, November 8
Taiwan, excluded from climate summit, sets up 'war room' to watch talks. Taiwan's Environment Minister Peng Chi-ming announced that due to political barriers preventing Taiwan from attending the COP29 climate summit in Baku, a “war room” has been set up to monitor live streams of the event. Taiwan, which aims for net-zero emissions by 2050, faces exclusion from most international bodies due to pressure from China. Peng emphasized Taiwan's climate challenges, including increasingly severe typhoons and droughts, and its desire to contribute to global discussions. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, November 8
President Whipps likely to win unless there’s a ‘miracle’: Palau Election Commission. The Palau Election Commission indicated that incumbent President Surangel Whipps Jr. is set to secure re-election, with unofficial results showing him leading former President Tommy Remengesau Jr. by over 1,000 votes. With 2,000 absentee ballots still to be counted, the Commission stated that a dramatic shift in the vote count is unlikely. The official results are expected by mid-November. PINA, November 8
Philippine president angers China with new laws to demarcate South China Sea territories. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed two laws reaffirming the Philippines' maritime rights, intensifying tensions with China, which claims nearly the entire South China Sea. The Philippine Maritime Zones Act and Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act define the nation's maritime territories and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). China condemned the move, summoning the Philippine ambassador. The U.S. has reiterated its defense commitment to Manila in the face of potential conflicts in these disputed waters. Jim Gomez, AP News, November 8
Thailand plans to raise daily minimum wage in new year, says minister. Thailand’s Labour Minister Pipat Ratchakitprakarn announced plans to raise the minimum daily wage to 400 baht ($11.76) starting next year as a "New Year present." The increase, originally set for October, will now be finalized in December. This adjustment is part of the ruling Pheu Thai party’s campaign to gradually raise the minimum wage to 600 baht by 2027, focusing on businesses with over 200 employees. Chayut Setboonsarng and Panarat Thepgumpanat, Reuters, November 8
S. Korea, Japan agree to closely cooperate to halt N.K.-Russia military cooperation. In a meeting in Seoul, South Korean Vice Defense Minister Kim Seon-ho and Japan’s Vice Defense Minister Koichiro Nakajima expressed concerns over deepening military ties between North Korea and Russia. Both sides emphasized the importance of strengthening bilateral and trilateral defense collaboration with the United States to address regional threats, especially after recent North Korean missile tests and reports of troop deployments to Russia. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, November 8
Local Approaches to Japan's Immigration Challenges. Japan accepts around 330,000 migrant workers yearly but lacks a national integration policy, leading cities like Kawasaki and Hamamatsu to adopt local measures. Recent reforms to Japan’s technical training system, now the Training and Employment System (TES), offer limited improvements, such as allowing foreign workers to switch employers. Kawasaki’s representative assembly for foreign residents advocates on issues like discrimination, while Hamamatsu’s council promotes rights protection for migrants. Despite these efforts, Japan’s response to demographic and labor needs remains fragmented, with local authorities often filling policy gaps. Yasuo Takao, East Asia Forum, November 8
Wishful Chinese See Possible Trump 2.0 Window to Resolve Taiwan. Some Chinese analysts view a potential Trump re-election as an opportunity for a “transactional” approach to Taiwan, suggesting he might prioritize economic leverage over military support. They speculate Trump could impose high tariffs or demand financial concessions rather than escalating defense aid. Despite this, Chinese experts remain cautious, given persistent U.S.-China tensions. Yong Jian, Asia Times, November 9
An Accommodative Transitional 2025 Budget for Indonesia. Indonesia’s 2025 budget balances outgoing President Joko Widodo’s priorities with incoming President Prabowo Subianto’s plans, supporting infrastructure and the new capital project while addressing food security, education, and defense. With an 8% increase in revenue and a 6% rise in spending, the budget aims to keep the deficit under 3% of GDP and sustain a 38% debt-to-GDP ratio. Projected economic growth remains at 5.2%, though high debt obligations will require careful fiscal management to achieve long-term goals. Manggi Habir and Siwage Dharma Negara, FULCRUM, November 8
Prabowo Subianto’s Problematic Start: A Missed Opportunity? Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s early days in office have been marked by unclear governance, despite having months to prepare. His administration’s ambitious "Asta Cita" vision aims at economic self-sufficiency and national sovereignty, but the absence of a formal transition team and reliance on loyalist appointees have raised concerns about efficiency and professionalism. Critics argue that Prabowo’s militaristic leadership style may hinder collaborative policy-making, highlighting a need for stronger direction to fulfill campaign promises. Yanuar Nugroho and Made Supriatma, FULCRUM, November 8
Debunking the Myth of Malaysia’s Economic Overdependence on China. Malaysia’s economic ties with China are often perceived as over-reliant, but data suggests a diversified approach with a balanced set of trade partnerships. While China remains Malaysia’s largest trading partner, Malaysia’s trade with ASEAN and the United States has grown, reducing China’s share of Malaysia’s total trade from 19% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. This diversified strategy positions Malaysia resiliently against potential turbulence in global trade dynamics. Jaideep Singh, The Diplomat, November 8